Designing noninferiority tuberculosis treatment trials: Identifying practical advantages for drug regimens with acceptable effectiveness

Screening performance of C-reactive protein for active pulmonary tuberculosis in HIV-positive patients: A systematic review with a meta-analysis

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading infectious cause of mortality worldwide. In the last years, resistant strains of the etiological agent, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, have emerged, thus demanding more triage tests to identify active pulmonary TB (PTB) patients and to evaluate their disease severity. Therefore, acute-phase reaction serum tests are required for monitoring TB patients, among WHO symptom screening recommendations. C-reactive protein (CRP) is a non-specific inflammatory biomarker that has been recently proposed for TB screening and can be quantitatively analyzed through cost-effective point-of-care assays. A previous meta-analysis found CRP to be highly sensitive and moderately specific for active PTB with confirmed HIV infection.

Methods

We performed a meta-analysis update of diagnostic tests, pooling sensitivities, and specificities in order to assess the accuracy of CRP as a potential test for the screening of HIV-associated PTB in outpatients. We searched MEDLINE, Web of Science, and SCOPUS for eligible articles before 19 October 2021.

Results

We identified 13 eligible studies with HIV-positive patients with PTB. At a CRP threshold of 10 mg/L, CRP pooled sensitivity was 87% (76%–93%) and pooled specificity was 67% (49%–81%), with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.858. Using a CRP threshold of 8 mg/L, pooled sensitivity was 82% (72%–89%) and pooled specificity was 82% (67%–92%), with an AUC of 0.879. We found that CRP has a high sensitivity in the screening of PTB in HIV-positive outpatients, consistent with findings reported previously.

Conclusions

Regardless of pooled specificity, better results were found using the CRP threshold of 8 mg/L as a test screening of PTB, meeting the need of further approaching specific TB diagnostic methods and reducing resource consumption.

Shortened Tuberculosis Treatment for People with HIV in South Africa. A Model-based Evaluation and Cost-effectiveness Analysis

Rationale: Recent tuberculosis treatment trials failed to show that some 4-month (4m) regimens were noninferior to conventional 6-month (6m) regimens for a composite clinical outcome. Novel shortened regimens may still have important clinical and economic benefits in populations with high loss to follow-up (LTFU) and in subgroups such as people with human immunodeficiency virus.Objectives: To identify scenarios in which a novel 4m regimen would be preferred to a conventional 6m regimen for treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis in people with human immunodeficiency virus in South Africa, in terms of short-term and long-term clinical and economic outcomes.Methods: We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications-International microsimulation model to project outcomes modeled on participants in the OFLOTUB trial. For calibration purposes, we did a base case analysis by applying trial-informed parameters for the 4m/6m regimens, including monthly LTFU during treatment (0.68%/0.83%), average monthly tuberculosis recurrence (0.65%/0.31%), and monthly drug costs (U.S. dollars [USD]25.90/3.70). We then evaluated different scenarios and 4m regimen characteristics, varying key parameters, including LTFU (informed by observational cohort data), recurrence, and cost. We projected outcomes, including 2-year mortality and life expectancy. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis, evaluating the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a 4m versus 6m regimen.Results: In the base case model analysis, risk of the composite unfavorable outcome in the 4m/6m groups was 19.8%/15.9%, similar to the trial; projected life expectancies were 22.1/22.3 years. In analyses of alternative scenarios and 4m regimen characteristics, a 4m regimen yielded lower risk of the composite unfavorable outcome than the conventional 6m regimen if LTFU increased to greater than 3.5%/mo or if average recurrence after a 4m regimen decreased to less than 0.45%/mo, and it yielded higher life expectancy if LTFU was greater than 3.5%/mo or if recurrence was less than 0.5%/mo. A 4m regimen was not cost-effective in the base case but became cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio <USD940/yr of life saved) in two-way sensitivity analysis; for example, if LTFU was greater than or equal to 5.3%/mo and either average recurrence was less than or equal to 0.5%/mo or drug cost was less than or equal to USD15/mo.Conclusions: A novel shortened tuberculosis treatment regimen could improve outcomes such as survival despite conferring a higher recurrence risk, particularly in settings where LTFU is higher than that seen in recent trials.

A framework for considering the risk-benefit trade-off in designing noninferiority trials using composite outcome approaches

When a new treatment regimen is expected to have comparable or slightly worse efficacy to that of the control regimen but has benefits in other domains such as safety and tolerability, a noninferiority (NI) trial may be appropriate but is fraught with difficulty in justifying an acceptable NI margin that is based on both clinical and statistical input. To overcome this, we propose to utilize composite risk-benefit outcomes that combine elements from domains of importance (eg, efficacy, safety, and tolerability). The composite outcome itself may be analyzed using a superiority framework, or it can be used as a tool at the design stage of a NI trial for selecting an NI margin for efficacy that balances changes in risks and benefits. In the latter case, the choice of NI margin may be based on a novel quantity called the maximum allowable decrease in efficacy (MADE), defined as the marginal difference in efficacy between arms that would yield a null treatment effect for the composite outcome given an assumed distribution for the composite outcome. We observe that MADE: (1) is larger when the safety improvement for the experimental arm is larger, (2) depends on the association between the efficacy and safety outcomes, and (3) depends on the control arm efficacy rate. We use a numerical example for power comparisons between a superiority test for the composite outcome vs a noninferiority test for efficacy using the MADE as the NI margin, and apply the methods to a TB treatment trial.

Advances in clinical trial design: Weaving tomorrow's TB treatments

Christian Lienhardt and co-authors discuss the conclusions of the PLOS Medicine Collection on advances in clinical trial design for development of new tuberculosis treatments.