Community-facility linkage models and maternal and infant health outcomes in Malawi's PMTCT/ART program: A cohort study

Predicting mortality within 1 year of ART initiation in children and adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: a retrospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Differentiated service delivery (DSD) for children and adolescents living with HIV can improve targeted resource use. We derived a mortality prediction score to guide clinical decision making for children and adolescents living with HIV.

METHODS

Data for this retrospective observational cohort study were evaluated for all children and adolescents living with HIV and initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART); aged 0-19 years; and enrolled at Baylor clinics in Eswatini, Malawi, Lesotho, Tanzania, and Uganda between 2005 and 2020. Data for clinical prediction, including anthropometric values, physical examination, ART, WHO stage, and laboratory tests were captured at ART initiation. Backward stepwise variable selection and logistic regression were performed to develop predictive models for mortality within 1 year of ART initiation. Probabilities of mortality were generated, compared with true outcomes, internally validated, and evaluated against WHO advanced HIV criteria.

FINDINGS

The study population included 16 958 children and adolescents living with HIV and initiated on ART between May 18, 2005, and Dec 18, 2020. Predictive variables for the most accurate model included: age, CD4 percentage, white blood cell count, haemoglobin concentration, platelet count, and BMI Z score as continuous variables, and WHO clinical stage and oedema, abnormal muscle tone and respiratory distress on examination as categorical variables. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predictive model was 0·851 (95% CI 0·839-0·863) in the training set and 0·822 (0·800-0·845) in the test set, compared with 0·606 (0·595-0·617) for the WHO advanced HIV criteria (p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

This study evaluated a large, multinational population to derive a mortality prediction tool for children and adolescents living with HIV. The model more accurately predicted clinical outcomes than the WHO advanced HIV criteria and has the potential to improve DSD for children and adolescents living with HIV in high-burden settings.

FUNDING

National Institute of Health Fogarty International Center.

Effect of peer-mother interactive programme on prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission outcomes among pregnant women on anti-retroviral treatment in routine healthcare in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Peer support services are increasingly being integrated in programmes for the prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT). We aimed to evaluate the effect of a peer-mother interactive programme on PMTCT outcomes among pregnant women on anti-retroviral treatment (ART) in routine healthcare in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Twenty-three health facilities were cluster-randomized to a peer-mother intervention and 24 to a control arm. We trained 92 ART experienced women with HIV to offer peer education, adherence and psychosocial support to women enrolling in PMTCT care at the intervention facilities. All pregnant women who enrolled in PMTCT care at the 47 facilities from 1st January 2018 to 31st December 2019 were identified and followed up to 31st July 2021. The primary outcome was time to ART attrition (no show >90 days since the scheduled appointment, excluding transfers) and any difference in one-year retention in PMTCT and ART care between intervention and control facilities. Secondary outcomes were maternal viral suppression (<400 viral copies/mL) and mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) by ≥12 months post-partum. Analyses were done using Kaplan Meier and Cox regression (ART retention/attrition), generalized estimating equations (viral suppression) and random effects logistic regression (MTCT); reporting rates, proportions and 95% confidence intervals (CI). There were 1957 women in the peer-mother and 1384 in the control facilities who enrolled in routine PMTCT care during 2018-2019 and were followed for a median [interquartile range (IQR)] of 23 [10, 31] months. Women in both groups had similar median age of 30 [IQR 25, 35] years, but differed slightly with regard to proportions in the third pregnancy trimester (14% versus 19%); advanced HIV (22% versus 27%); and ART naïve (55% versus 47%). Peer-mother facilities had a significantly lower attrition rate per 1000 person months (95%CI) of 14 (13, 16) versus 18 (16, 19) and significantly higher one-year ART retention (95%CI) of 78% (76, 80) versus 74% (71, 76) in un-adjusted analyses, however in adjusted analyses the effect size was not statistically significant [adjusted hazard ratio of attrition (95%CI) = 0.85 (0.67, 1.08)]. Viral suppression (95%CI) was similar in both groups [92% (91, 93) versus 91% (90, 92)], but significantly higher among ART naïve women in peer-mother [91% (89, 92)] versus control [88% (86, 90)] facilities. MTCT (95%CI) was similar in both groups [2.2% (1.4, 3.4) versus 1.5% (0.7, 2.8)]. In conclusion, we learned that integration of peer-mother services in routine PMTCT care improved ART retention among all women and viral suppression among ART naïve women but had no significant influence on MTCT.