Incidence of nonvalvular atrial fibrillation and oral anticoagulant prescribing in England, 2009 to 2019: A cohort study

Global, regional, and national burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter related to metabolic risks over three decades: estimates from the global burden of disease study 2019

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) remains a significant public health concern on a global scale, with metabolic risks playing an increasingly prominent role. This study aimed to investigate comprehensive epidemiological data and trends concerning the metabolic risks related-AF/AFL burden based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The analysis of disease burden focused on numbers, age-standardized rates of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage change, while considering factors of age, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), and locations. In 2019, there was a culmination of 137 179 deaths and 4 099 146 DALYs caused by metabolic risks related-AF/AFL worldwide, with an increase of 162.95% and 120.30%, respectively from 1990. High and high-middle SDI regions predominantly carried the burden of AF/AFL associated with metabolic risks, while a shift towards lower SDI regions had been occurring. Montenegro had the highest recorded death rate (7.6 per 100 000) and DALYs rate (146.3 per 100 000). An asymmetrically inverted V-shaped correlation was found between SDI and deaths/DALYs rates. Moreover, females and the elderly exhibited higher AF/AFL burdens, and young adults (over 40 years old) also experienced an annual increase.

CONCLUSION

The global AF/AFL burden related to metabolic risks has significantly increased over the past three decades, with considerable spatiotemporal, gender-based, and age-related heterogeneity. These findings shed valuable light on the trends in the burden of metabolic risks related-AF/AFL and offered insights into corresponding strategies.

Pharmacist-led interventions in optimising the use of oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation in general practice in England: a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Oral anticoagulation (OAC) is the mainstay of treatment for the prevention of strokes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) account for increasing OAC in patients with AF. However, prescribing DOACs for patients with established AF poses various challenges and general practice pharmacists may have an important role in supporting their management.

AIM

To investigate the effectiveness of pharmacist-led interventions in general practice in optimising the use of OAC therapies in AF.

DESIGN & SETTING

A retrospective observational study in general practices in Bradford.

METHOD

The data were collected retrospectively from 1 November 2018-31 December 2019 using electronic health record data. The data were analysed: 1) to identify patients with AF not on OAC; 2) to describe inappropriate DOAC prescriptions; and 3) to calculate HAS-BLED scores.

RESULTS

Overall, 76.3% (n = 470) of patients with AF received OAC therapy, and of these, 63.4% received DOACs. Pharmacist-led interventions increased DOAC prescribing by 6.0% (P = 0.03). Inappropriate DOAC use was identified in 24.5% of patients with AF, with underdosed and overdosed identified in 9.7% and 14.8%, respectively. Post-intervention, inappropriate prescribing was reduced to 1.7%. The mean HAS-BLED score decreased from 3.00 to 2.22 (P<0.01). Successful transition from vitamin K antagonist (VKA) therapy to DOACs was achieved in 25.7% of patients.

CONCLUSION

Pharmacist-led interventions have successfully improved the use of OAC therapies in patients with AF, and effectively managed the bleeding risks and transition from VKA to DOAC therapy, in line with guidelines.

Performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED in predicting stroke and bleeding in atrial fibrillation and cancer

Aims

To compare the predictive performance of CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients with and without cancer.

Methods and results

Using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England, we performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with new diagnoses of AF from 2009 to 2019. Cancer was defined as history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or haematological cancer. We calculated the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores for the 1-year risk of stroke and major bleeding events. Scores performance was estimated by discrimination [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC)] and calibration plots. Of 141 796 patients with AF, 10.3% had cancer. The CHA2DS2-VASc score had good to modest discrimination in prostate cancer AUC = 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.71, 0.77), haematological cancer AUC = 0.71 (0.66, 0.76), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.75), breast cancer AUC = 0.70 (0.66, 0.74), and lung cancer AUC = 0.69 (0.60, 0.79), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.73 (0.72, 0.74). HAS-BLED discrimination was poor in prostate cancer AUC = 0.58 (0.55, 0.61), haematological cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.55, 0.64), colorectal cancer AUC = 0.57 (0.53, 0.61), breast cancer AUC = 0.56 (0.52, 0.61), and lung cancer AUC = 0.59 (0.51, 0.67), compared with no-cancer AUC = 0.61 (0.60, 0.62). Both the CHA2DS2-VASc score and HAS-BLED score were well calibrated across all study cohorts.

Conclusion

Amongst certain cancer cohorts in the AF population, CHA2DS2-VASc performs similarly in predicting stroke to AF patients without cancer. Our findings highlight the importance of cancer diagnosis during the development of risk scores and opportunities to optimize the HAS-BLED risk score to better serve cancer patients with AF.

Social drivers in atrial fibrillation occurrence, screening, treatment, and outcomes: systematic-narrative hybrid review

The importance of social drivers of health (SDOH) in the occurrence, detection, treatment, and outcome of atrial fibrillation (AF) has attracted increasing attention. Addressing SDOH factors may suggest opportunities to prevent AF and its complications. We aimed to conduct a structured narrative review and summarize current knowledge on the association between race and ethnicity, SDOH, including rural vs. urban habitation, education, income, and neighbourhood, and the risk of AF, its management, and complications. We identified 537 references in PubMed and 473 references in Embase. After removal of duplicates, we screened the abstracts of 975 references, resulting in 113 references that were examined for eligibility. Subsequently, 34 references were excluded leaving 79 references for the review. Evidence of a social gradient in AF incidence and prevelance were conflicting. However, we found substantial evidence indicating social inequities in the detection of AF, access to treatment, and outcomes such as healthcare utilization, bleeding, heart failure, stroke, dementia, work disability, and death. Inequities are reported across various health care systems and constitute a global problem affecting several continents, although data from Africa and South America are lacking. Given the documented social inequities in AF detection, management, and outcomes, there is an urgent need for healthcare systems, policymakers, and society to identify and implement effective interventions that can reduce inequities and improve outcomes in individuals with AF.

Oral anticoagulant prescribing among patients with cancer and atrial fibrillation in England, 2009-2019

BACKGROUND

Anticoagulation of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and cancer is challenging because of their high risk for stroke and bleeding. Little is known of the variations of oral anticoagulant (OAC) prescribing in patients with AF with and without cancer.

METHODS

Patients with first-time AF during 2009-2019 from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink were included. Cancer diagnosis was defined as a history of breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, or hematological cancer. Competing-risk analysis was used to assess the risk of OAC prescribing in patients with AF and cancer adjusted for clinical and sociodemographic factors.

RESULTS

Of 177,065 patients with AF, 11.7% had cancer. Compared to patients without cancer, patients with cancer were less likely to receive OAC: prostate cancer (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99), breast cancer (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.89-0.98), colorectal cancer (SHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.88-0.99), hematological cancer (SHR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.65-0.75), and lung cancer (SHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.38-0.50). The cumulative incidence function (CIF) of OAC prescribing was lowest for patients with lung cancer and hematological cancer compared with patients without cancer. The difference between the CIF of OAC prescribing in patients with and without cancer becomes narrower in the most deprived areas. Elderly patients (aged ≥85 years) overall had the lowest CIF of OAC prescribing regardless of cancer status.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AF, underprescribing of OAC is independently associated with certain cancer types. Patients with hematological and lung cancer are the least likely to receive anticoagulation therapy compared with patients without cancer. Underprescribing of OAC in cancer is linked to old age. Further studies of patients with AF and cancer are warranted to assess the net clinical benefit of anticoagulation in certain cancer types.

Anticoagulation Patterns Among Community-Dwelling Older Adults With Atrial Fibrillation

OBJECTIVES

To assess clinicians' prescribing practices for anticoagulation in older adults with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (AF/F) and determine factors common among those without anticoagulation.

METHODS

We performed a community-based retrospective cohort study of adults aged 65 years and older with a history of nonvalvular AF/F to determine the rate of oral anticoagulation utilization. We also assessed for associations between anticoagulation use and comorbid conditions and common geriatric syndromes.

RESULTS

A total of 3832 patients with a diagnosis of nonvalvular AF/F were included (mean [SD] age, 79.9 [8.4] years), 2693 (70.3%) of whom were receiving anticoagulation (51.7%, a vitamin K antagonist; 48.1%, a direct-acting oral anticoagulant). Patients with higher Elderly Risk Assessment index (ERA) scores, a surrogate for health vulnerability, received anticoagulation less often than patients with lower scores. The percentage of patients with a history of falling was higher among those who did not receive anticoagulation than among those who did (44.4% vs 32.8%; P < .001). Similarly, a diagnosis of dementia was more common in the no-anticoagulation group than the anticoagulation group (18.5% vs 12.7%; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

A substantial proportion of older adults with AF/F do not receive anticoagulation. Those without anticoagulation had higher risk of health deterioration based on higher ERA scores and had a higher incidence of dementia and fall history. This suggests that the presence of geriatric syndromes may influence the decision to withhold anticoagulation.

Comorbidity clusters and in-hospital outcomes in patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction in the USA: A national population-based study

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of multimorbidity in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is increasing. It is unclear whether comorbidities cluster into distinct phenogroups and whether are associated with clinical trajectories.

METHODS

Survey-weighted analysis of the United States Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) for patients admitted with a primary diagnosis of AMI in 2018. In-hospital outcomes included mortality, stroke, bleeding, and coronary revascularisation. Latent class analysis of 21 chronic conditions was used to identify comorbidity classes. Multivariable logistic and linear regressions were fitted for associations between comorbidity classes and outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 416,655 AMI admissions included in the analysis, mean (±SD) age was 67 (±13) years, 38% were females, and 76% White ethnicity. Overall, hypertension, coronary heart disease (CHD), dyslipidaemia, and diabetes were common comorbidities, but each of the identified five classes (C) included ≥1 predominant comorbidities defining distinct phenogroups: cancer/coagulopathy/liver disease class (C1); least burdened (C2); CHD/dyslipidaemia (largest/referent group, (C3)); pulmonary/valvular/peripheral vascular disease (C4); diabetes/kidney disease/heart failure class (C5). Odds ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) for mortality ranged between 2.11 (1.89-2.37) in C2 to 5.57 (4.99-6.21) in C1. For major bleeding, OR for C1 was 4.48 (3.78; 5.31); for acute stroke, ORs ranged between 0.75 (0.60; 0.94) in C2 to 2.76 (2.27; 3.35) in C1; for coronary revascularization, ORs ranged between 0.34 (0.32; 0.36) in C1 to 1.41 (1.30; 1.53) in C4.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified distinct comorbidity phenogroups that predicted in-hospital outcomes in patients admitted with AMI. Some conditions overlapped across classes, driven by the high comorbidity burden. Our findings demonstrate the predictive value and potential clinical utility of identifying patients with AMI with specific comorbidity clustering.

Common Cancer Types and Risk of Stroke and Bleeding in Patients With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Study in England

BACKGROUND

The association between cancer and stroke or bleeding outcomes in atrial fibrillation is unclear. We sought to examine how certain types of cancer influence the balance between stroke and bleeding risk in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We estimated stroke and bleeding risk among adult patients with NVAF and certain types of cancer (breast, prostate, colorectal, lung, and hematological cancer) from 2009 to 2019 based on data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD and Aurum databases. The control group included patients with NVAF only. Of 177 065 patients with NVAF, 11379 (6.4%) had cancer (1691 breast, 3955 prostate, 1666 colorectal, 2491 hematological, and 1576 lung). Compared with patients without cancer, stroke risk was higher in patients with breast cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.07-1.35) and with prostate cancer (aHR, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.01-1.12) if diagnosed within 6 months before NVAF. The risk of bleeding was increased in subjects with hematological cancer (aHR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.40-1.71]), lung cancer (aHR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.25, 1.77]), prostate cancer (aHR, 1.38 [95% CI, 1.28-1.49]), and colorectal cancer (aHR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.21-1.53]), but not for subjects with breast cancer. The more recent the cancer diagnosis before NVAF diagnosis (within 6 months), the higher the risk of bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Breast and prostate cancer are associated with increased stroke risk, whereas in some cancer types, the risk of bleeding seemed to exceed stroke risk. In these patients, prescribing of oral anticoagulant should be carefully evaluated to balance bleeding and stroke risk.

Inequalities in care delivery and outcomes for myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis in the United Kingdom

Cardiovascular diseases are a leading cause of death and disability globally, with inequalities in burden and care delivery evident in Europe. To address this challenge, The Lancet Regional Health-Europe convened experts from a range of countries to summarise the current state of knowledge on cardiovascular disease inequalities across Europe. This Series paper presents evidence from nationwide secondary care registries and primary care healthcare records regarding inequalities in care delivery and outcomes for myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis in the National Health Service (NHS) across the United Kingdom (UK) by age, sex, ethnicity and geographical location. Data suggest that women and older people less frequently receive guideline-recommended treatment than men and younger people. There are limited publications about ethnicity in the UK for the studied disease areas. Finally, there is inter-healthcare provider variation in cardiovascular care provision, especially for transcatheter aortic valve implantation, which is associated with differing outcomes for patients with the same disease. Providing equitable care is a founding principle of the UK NHS, which is well positioned to deliver innovative policy responses to reverse observed inequalities. Understanding differences in care may enable the implementation of appropriate strategies to mitigate differences in outcomes.

Atrial Fibrillation and Reperfusion Therapy in Acute Ischaemic Stroke Patients: Prevalence and Outcomes-A Comprehensive Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Atrial fibrillation (AF) significantly contributes to acute ischaemic stroke (AIS), yet its precise influence on clinical outcomes post-intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and post-endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) has remained elusive. Furthermore, the overall prevalence of AF in AIS patients undergoing reperfusion therapy has not been clearly determined. Employing random-effects meta-analyses, this research aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of AF among AIS patients undergoing reperfusion therapy, while also examining the association between AF and clinical outcomes such as functional outcomes, symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage (sICH) and mortality. Studies comparing AF and non-AF patient groups undergoing reperfusion therapy were identified and included following an extensive database search. Forty-nine studies (n = 66,887) were included. Among IVT patients, the prevalence of AF was 31% (Effect Size [ES] 0.31 [95%CI 0.28-0.35], p < 0.01), while in EVT patients, it reached 42% (ES 0.42 [95%CI 0.38-0.46], p < 0.01), and in bridging therapy (BT) patients, it stood at 36% (ES 0.36 [95%CI 0.28-0.43], p < 0.01). AF was associated with significantly lower odds of favourable 90-day functional outcomes post IVT (Odds Ratio [OR] 0.512 [95%CI 0.376-0.696], p < 0.001), but not post EVT (OR 0.826 [95%CI 0.651-1.049], p = 0.117). Our comprehensive meta-analysis highlights the varying prevalence of AF among different reperfusion therapies and its differential impact on patient outcomes. The highest pooled prevalence of AF was observed in EVT patients, followed by BT and IVT patients. Interestingly, our analysis revealed that AF was significantly associated with poorer clinical outcomes following IVT. Such an association was not observed following EVT.

Direct oral anticoagulants or vitamin K antagonists in emergencies: comparison of management in an observational study

Background

Restoring hemostasis in patients on oral anticoagulants presenting with major hemorrhage (MH) or before surgical intervention has changed, with the replacement of vitamin K antagonist (VKA) with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs).

Objectives

To observe the difference in urgent hemostatic management between patients on VKA and those on DOACs.

Methods

A multicenter observational study evaluated the variation in laboratory testing, hemostatic management, mortality, and hospital length of stay (LOS) in patients on VKA or DOACs presenting with MH or urgent hemostatic restoration.

Results

Of the 1194 patients analyzed, 783 had MH (61% VKA) and 411 required urgent hemostatic restoration before surgery (56% VKA). Compared to the international normalized ratio (97.6%), plasma DOAC levels were measured less frequently (<45%), and the time taken from admission for the coagulation sample to reach the laboratory varied widely (median, 52.3 minutes; IQR, 24.8-206.7). No significant plasma DOAC level (<50 ng/mL) was found in up to 19% of patients. There was a poor relationship between plasma DOAC level and the usage of a hemostatic agent. When compared with patients receiving VKA (96.5%) or dabigatran (93.7%), fewer patients prescribed a factor Xa inhibitor (75.5%) received a prohemostatic reversal agent. The overall 30-day mortality for MH (mean: 17.8%) and length of stay (LOS) (median: 8.7 days) was similar between VKA and DOAC patients.

Conclusion

In DOAC patients, when compared to those receiving VKA, plasma DOAC levels were measured less frequently than the international normalized ratio and had a poor relationship with administering a hemostatic reversal agent. In addition, following MH, mortality and LOS were similar between VKA and DOAC patients.

Real-world evidence from the first online healthcare analytics platform-Livingstone. Validation of its descriptive epidemiology module

Incidence and prevalence are key epidemiological determinants characterizing the quantum of a disease. We compared incidence and prevalence estimates derived automatically from the first ever online, essentially real-time, healthcare analytics platform-Livingstone-against findings from comparable peer-reviewed studies in order to validate the descriptive epidemiology module. The source of routine NHS data for Livingstone was the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). After applying a general search strategy looking for any disease or condition, 76 relevant studies were first retrieved, of which 10 met pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria. Findings reported in these studies were compared with estimates produced automatically by Livingstone. The published reports described elements of the epidemiology of 14 diseases or conditions. Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) was used to evaluate the concordance between findings from Livingstone and those detailed in the published studies. The concordance of incidence values in the final year reported by each study versus Livingstone was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.89-0.98), whilst for all annual incidence values the concordance was 0.93 (0.91-0.94). For prevalence, concordance for the final annual prevalence reported in each study versus Livingstone was 1.00 (0.99-1.00) and for all reported annual prevalence values, the concordance was 0.93 (0.90-0.95). The concordance between Livingstone and the latest published findings was near perfect for prevalence and substantial for incidence. For the first time, it is now possible to automatically generate reliable descriptive epidemiology from routine health records, and in near-real time. Livingstone provides the first mechanism to rapidly generate standardised, descriptive epidemiology for all clinical events from real world data.

Integrated Machine Learning Decision Tree Model for Risk Evaluation in Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation When Taking Different Doses of Dabigatran

The new generation of nonvitamin K antagonists are broadly applied for stroke prevention due to their notable efficacy and safety. Our study aimed to develop a suggestive utilization of dabigatran through an integrated machine learning (ML) decision-tree model. Participants taking different doses of dabigatran in the Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy trial were included in our analysis and defined as the 110 mg and 150 mg groups. The proposed scheme integrated ML methods, namely naive Bayes, random forest (RF), classification and regression tree (CART), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), which were used to identify the essential variables for predicting vascular events in the 110 mg group and bleeding in the 150 mg group. RF (0.764 for 110 mg; 0.747 for 150 mg) and XGBoost (0.708 for 110 mg; 0.761 for 150 mg) had better area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values than logistic regression (benchmark model; 0.683 for 110 mg; 0.739 for 150 mg). We then selected the top ten important variables as internal nodes of the CART decision tree. The two best CART models with ten important variables output tree-shaped rules for predicting vascular events in the 110 mg group and bleeding in the 150 mg group. Our model can be used to provide more visualized and interpretable suggestive rules to clinicians managing NVAF patients who are taking dabigatran.

Global burden of atrial fibrillation/flutter due to high systolic blood pressure from 1990 to 2019: estimates from the global burden of disease study 2019

Atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter (AF/AFL) has progressed to be a public health concern, and high systolic blood pressure (HSBP) remains the leading risk factor for AF/AFL. This study estimated the HSBP attributable AF/AFL burden based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. Numbers, age-standardized rates (ASR) of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were analyzed by age, sex, sociodemographic index (SDI), and locations. Gini coefficient was calculated to evaluate health inequality. Globally, HSBP-related AF/AFL caused 107 091 deaths and 3 337 876 DALYs in 2019, an increase of 142.5% and 105.9% from 1990, respectively. The corresponding mortality and DALYs ASR declined by 5.8% and 7.7%. High-income Asia Pacific experienced the greatest decrease in mortality and DALYs ASR, whereas the largest increase was observed in Andean Latin America. Almost half of the HSBP-related AF/AFL burden was carried by high and high-middle SDI regions, and it was experiencing a shift to lower SDI regions. A negative correlation was detected between EAPC and SDI. Females and elderly people tended to have a higher AF/AFL burden, whereas young adults (30-49 years old) experienced an annual increase in AF/AFL burden. The Gini index of DALYs rate decreased from 0.224 in 1990 to 0.183 in 2019. Despite improved inequality having been observed over the past decades, the HSBP-related AF/AFL burden varied across regions, sexes, and ages. Cost-effective preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic tools are required to be implemented in less developed regions.