The age profile of respiratory syncytial virus burden in preschool children of low- and middle-income countries: A semi-parametric, meta-regression approach

Characteristics of inpatient and outpatient respiratory syncytial virus mortality in Gavi-eligible countries

The current understanding of the RSV-related mortality age distribution in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) relies on a limited number of disease incidence studies reporting wide age bands, and lacking specificity to Gavi-eligible countries. Understanding the age distribution of RSV-related deaths is crucial for the implementation of RSV interventions in LMICs that rely on support from Gavi. This study aims to provide the age profile of RSV mortality specifically in Gavi-eligible countries. Utilizing data from the RSV GOLD project, an ongoing global online mortality registry focusing on children under the age of 5 with laboratory-confirmed RSV infection, we employed two models (Complete Data Model and Prospective Data Model) to estimate the age profiles. To mitigate biases related to age group representation, we applied post-stratification weighting in our analysis. We included 423 pediatric deaths, including 145 from the community, under 2 years of age from 15 Gavi-eligible countries. Both models identified a peak age at 1 month and found that the majority of RSV-related mortality cases (59-77 %) from Gavi-eligible countries occur before 6 months of life. However, the models exhibited disparities in other age-related metrics. We present fitted age-at-time-of-death probability distributions to aid impact and cost-effectiveness studies. We expect that implementing infant RSV immunization strategies, such as maternal vaccination or infant immunoprophylaxis, will have high impact on RSV-related mortality in Gavi-eligible countries. The divergent results from the two models underscore the importance of carefully considering potential biases in retrospective and surveillance data when interpreting the age profile of RSV mortality cases in future research.

Age-specific predictors of disease severity in children with respiratory syncytial virus infection beyond infancy and through the first 5 years of age

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is associated with significant morbidity in infants. Risk factors for severe disease beyond the first 2 years of life have not been fully defined.

METHODS

Children <5 years hospitalized with virologically confirmed RSV infection were identified over six respiratory seasons (10/2012-4/2018) and their medical records manually reviewed. Multivariable analyses were performed to define the age-specific (<6, 6-24, and >24-59 months) risk factors associated with oxygen administration, PICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and duration of hospitalization.

RESULTS

We identified 5143 children hospitalized with RSV infection: 53.5% (n = 2749) <6 months; 31.7% (n = 1631) 6-24 months; and 14.8% (n = 763) >24-59 months. Rates of ICU admission were high (35%-36%) and comparable across age groups, while children >24-59 and 6-24 versus those <6 months required supplemental oxygen more frequently (73%; 71%; 68%, respectively; p = .003). The presence of comorbidities increased with age (25%, <6 months; 46%, 6-24 months; 70%, >24-59 months; p < .001). Specifically, neuromuscular disorders, chronic lung disease, and reactive airway disease/asthma were predictive of worse clinical outcomes in children aged 6-24 and >24-59 months, while RSV-viral codetections increased the risk of severe outcomes in children aged <6 and 6-24 months of age.

CONCLUSIONS

Almost half of children hospitalized with RSV infection were >6 months. Underlying comorbidities increased with age and remained associated with severe disease in older children, while RSV-viral codetections were predictive of worse clinical outcomes in the youngest age groups. These data suggest the importance of defining the clinical phenotype associated with severe RSV according to age, and the persistent burden associated with RSV beyond infancy.