Unusual pattern of chikungunya virus epidemic in the Americas, the Panamanian experience

Convergent trends and spatiotemporal patterns of Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico and Central America

BACKGROUND

Aedes-borne arboviruses cause both seasonal epidemics and emerging outbreaks with a significant impact on global health. These viruses share mosquito vector species, often infecting the same host population within overlapping geographic regions. Thus, comparative analyses of the virus evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics across spatial and temporal scales could reveal convergent trends.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Focusing on Mexico as a case study, we generated novel chikungunya and dengue (CHIKV, DENV-1 and DENV-2) virus genomes from an epidemiological surveillance-derived historical sample collection, and analysed them together with longitudinally-collected genome and epidemiological data from the Americas. Aedes-borne arboviruses endemically circulating within the country were found to be introduced multiple times from lineages predominantly sampled from the Caribbean and Central America. For CHIKV, at least thirteen introductions were inferred over a year, with six of these leading to persistent transmission chains. For both DENV-1 and DENV-2, at least seven introductions were inferred over a decade.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results suggest that CHIKV, DENV-1 and DENV-2 in Mexico share evolutionary and epidemiological trajectories. The southwest region of the country was determined to be the most likely location for viral introductions from abroad, with a subsequent spread into the Pacific coast towards the north of Mexico. Virus diffusion patterns observed across the country are likely driven by multiple factors, including mobility linked to human migration from Central towards North America. Considering Mexico's geographic positioning displaying a high human mobility across borders, our results prompt the need to better understand the role of anthropogenic factors in the transmission dynamics of Aedes-borne arboviruses, particularly linked to land-based human migration.

Using compartmental models and Particle Swarm Optimization to assess Dengue basic reproduction number R 0 for the Republic of Panama in the 1999-2022 period

Nowadays, the ability to make data-driven decisions in public health is of utmost importance. To achieve this, it is necessary for modelers to comprehend the impact of models on the future state of healthcare systems. Compartmental models are a valuable tool for making informed epidemiological decisions, and the proper parameterization of these models is crucial for analyzing epidemiological events. This work evaluated the use of compartmental models in conjunction with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to determine optimal solutions and understand the dynamics of Dengue epidemics. The focus was on calculating and evaluating the rate of case reproduction, R 0 , for the Republic of Panama. Three compartmental models were compared: Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR), Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR), and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered Human-Susceptible-Infected Vector (SIR Human-SI Vector, SIR-SI). The models were informed by demographic data and Dengue incidence in the Republic of Panama between 1999 and 2022, and the susceptible population was analyzed. The SIR, SEIR, and SIR-SI models successfully provided R 0 estimates ranging from 1.09 to 1.74. This study provides, to the best of our understanding, the first calculation of R 0 for Dengue outbreaks in the Republic of Panama.

Targeting Host PIM Protein Kinases Reduces Mayaro Virus Replication

Mayaro virus (MAYV) manipulates cell machinery to successfully replicate. Thus, identifying host proteins implicated in MAYV replication represents an opportunity to discover potential antiviral targets. PIM kinases are enzymes that regulate essential cell functions and also appear to be critical factors in the replication of certain viruses. In this study we explored the consequences of PIM kinase inhibition in the replication of MAYV and other arboviruses. Cytopathic effects or viral titers in samples from MAYV-, Chikungunya-, Una- or Zika-infected cells treated with PIM kinase inhibitors were evaluated using an inverted microscope or plaque-forming assays. The expression of viral proteins E1 and nsP1 in MAYV-infected cells was assessed using an immunofluorescence confocal microscope or Western blot. Our results revealed that PIM kinase inhibition partially prevented MAYV-induced cell damage and also promoted a decrease in viral titers for MAYV, UNAV and ZIKV. The inhibitory effect of PIM kinase blocking was observed for each of the MAYV strains tested and also occurred as late as 8 h post infection (hpi). Finally, PIM kinase inhibition suppressed the expression of MAYV E1 and nsP1 proteins. Taken together, these findings suggest that PIM kinases could represent an antiviral target for MAYV and other arboviruses.

The Impact of Deforestation, Urbanization, and Changing Land Use Patterns on the Ecology of Mosquito and Tick-Borne Diseases in Central America

Central America is a unique geographical region that connects North and South America, enclosed by the Caribbean Sea to the East, and the Pacific Ocean to the West. This region, encompassing Belize, Costa Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, and Nicaragua, is highly vulnerable to the emergence or resurgence of mosquito-borne and tick-borne diseases due to a combination of key ecological and socioeconomic determinants acting together, often in a synergistic fashion. Of particular interest are the effects of land use changes, such as deforestation-driven urbanization and forest degradation, on the incidence and prevalence of these diseases, which are not well understood. In recent years, parts of Central America have experienced social and economic improvements; however, the region still faces major challenges in developing effective strategies and significant investments in public health infrastructure to prevent and control these diseases. In this article, we review the current knowledge and potential impacts of deforestation, urbanization, and other land use changes on mosquito-borne and tick-borne disease transmission in Central America and how these anthropogenic drivers could affect the risk for disease emergence and resurgence in the region. These issues are addressed in the context of other interconnected environmental and social challenges.

Assessing the Effect of Climate Variables on the Incidence of Dengue Cases in the Metropolitan Region of Panama City

The present analysis uses the data of confirmed incidence of dengue cases in the metropolitan region of Panama from 1999 to 2017 and climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity) during the same period to determine if there exists a correlation between these variables. In addition, we compare the predictive performance of two regression models (SARIMA, SARIMAX) and a recurrent neural network model (RNN-LSTM) on the dengue incidence series. For this data from 1999–2014 was used for training and the three subsequent years of incidence 2015–2017 were used for prediction. The results show a correlation coefficient between the climatic variables and the incidence of dengue were low but statistical significant. The RMSE and MAPE obtained for the SARIMAX and RNN-LSTM models were 25.76, 108.44 and 26.16, 59.68, which suggest that any of these models can be used to predict new outbreaks. Although, it can be said that there is a limited role of climatic variables in the outputs the models. The value of this work is that it helps understand the behaviour of cases in a tropical setting as is the Metropolitan Region of Panama City, and provides the basis needed for a much needed early alert system for the region.

Multisectoral Approach to Address Chikungunya Outbreaks Driven by Human Mobility: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The role of human mobility in the epidemiology of emerging Aedes-transmitted viral diseases is recognized but not fully understood. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to examine how human mobility patterns are driving chikungunya outbreaks.

METHODS

Literature was systematically reviewed for studies on chikungunya prevalence in countries/territories with high-level evidence of human mobility-driven outbreaks, based on: (1) emergence of chikungunya outbreaks with epidemic chikungunya virus genotypes among displaced/migrant populations and their hosting communities; and (2) identification of imported index case(s) with epidemic genotypes phylogenetically related to the genotypes circulating during emerging or subsequent outbreaks.

RESULTS

The meta-analysis of extracted prevalence data revealed that a large proportion of the population in countries/territories afflicted by outbreaks is still at risk of infection during future outbreaks. On the other hand, approximately one-half of suspected chikungunya cases could be infected with other co-circulating acute febrile illnesses.

CONCLUSIONS

We discussed in this paper how human mobility-driven chikungunya outbreaks can be addressed, and how the involvement of several sectors in addition to the health sector in multisectoral approaches (MSAs) is important for prevention and control of chikungunya and other Aedes-transmitted arboviral outbreaks.

Broad Antiviral Activity of Ginkgolic Acid against Chikungunya, Mayaro, Una, and Zika Viruses

The alphaviruses Chikungunya (CHIKV), Mayaro (MAYV), Una (UNAV), and the flavivirus Zika (ZIKV) are emerging or re-emerging arboviruses which are responsible for frequent epidemic outbreaks. Despite the large impact of these arboviruses on health systems, there are no approved vaccines or treatments to fight these infections. As a consequence, there is an urgent need to discover new antiviral drugs. Natural products are a rich source of compounds with distinct biological activities, including antiviral properties. Thus, we aimed to explore the potential antiviral activity of Ginkgolic acid against the arboviruses CHIKV, MAYV, UNAV, and ZIKV. Viral progeny production in supernatants from cells treated or not treated with Ginkgolic acid was quantified by plaque-forming assay. Ginkgolic acid's direct virucidal activity against these arboviruses was also determined. Additionally, viral protein expression was assessed using Western blot and immunofluorescence. Our results reveal that Ginkgolic acid promotes a dose-dependent decrease in viral titers in all tested viruses. Moreover, the compound demonstrated strong virucidal activity. Finally, we found that viral protein expression was affected by treatment with this drug. Collectively, these findings suggest that Ginkgolic acid could have broader antiviral activity.

Molecular Epidemiology of Dengue in Panama: 25 Years of Circulation

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent arbovirus in terms of human public health importance globally. In addition to DENV epidemiological surveillance, genomic surveillance may help investigators understand the epidemiological dynamics, geographic distribution, and temporal patterns of DENV circulation. Herein, we aimed to reconstruct the molecular epidemiology and phylogeny of DENV in Panama to connect the epidemiological history of DENV dispersal and circulation in Latin America. We retrospectively analyzed the epidemiological data obtained during 25 years of DENV surveillance in Panama. DENV was reintroduced in Panama in 1993 after a 35 year absence of autochthonous transmission. The increase in the number of total dengue cases has been accompanied by an increase in severe and fatal cases, with the highest case fatality rate recorded in 2011. All four serotypes were detected in Panama, which is characterized by serotype replacement and/or co-circulation of multiple serotypes. Phylogenetic analysis of datasets collected from envelope (E) gene sequences obtained from viruses isolated from human sera demonstrated that circulating viruses were highly diverse and clustered in distinct clades, with co-circulation of clades from the same genotype. Our analyses also suggest that Panamanian strains were related to viruses from different regions of the Americas, suggesting a continuous exchange of viruses within the Americas.

Genomic epidemiology of Chikungunya virus in Colombia reveals genetic variability of strains and multiple geographic introductions in outbreak, 2014

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is considered a public health problem due to its rapid spread and high morbidity. This study aimed to determine the genetic diversity and phylogenetic relationships of CHIKVs in Colombia. A descriptive and retrospective study was carried out using sera of patients infected with Chikungunya during the outbreak in Colombia. The whole genomes of CHIKV (n = 16) were sequenced with an Illumina Hi-seq 2500 and were assembled using the Iterative Virus Assembler software. A Bayesian inference phylogenetic analysis was carried out with 157 strains of worldwide origin. The Colombian CHIKV sequences were grouped in the Asian genotype; however, three independent phylogenetic subclades were observed, probably the result of three separate introductions from Panama, Nicaragua, and St. Barts. Each subclade showed several different non-synonymous mutations (nsP2-A153V; nsp2-Y543H; nsp2-G720A; nsP3-L458P; Capside R78Q), that may have functional consequences for CHIKV biology and pathogenesis. These same mutations may affect the efficacy of potential CHIKV vaccines.

Presence of the point mutations Val1016Gly in the voltage-gated sodium channel detected in a single mosquito from Panama

Background

In Panama, arboviroses such as dengue fever, and more recently chikungunya fever and Zika disease, are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Their control is based on the elimination of breeding sites and fogging with pyrethroid insecticides. However, one of the significant issues derived from the prolonged use of pyrethroid insecticide is the development of resistance mechanisms, such as knockdown resistance or kdr. The objective of this study was to evaluate the presence of kdr mutations in a partial region of the VGSC gene in samples of wild-caught Aedes mosquitoes from different locations of the Metropolitan Region of Panama.

Results

Based on the analysis of 194 sequences of the VGSC gene, two kdr mutations (Ile1011Met and Val1016Gly) were detected in a specimen of Ae. aegypti. The frequency of kdr mutations in the evaluated samples of Ae. aegypti was 0.01.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence for a low frequency of kdr mutations in Ae. aegypti populations in Panama. It is possible that these changes have no impact on vector control interventions. To our knowledge, we report, for the first time in America the Val1016Gly mutation documented in Asia. In general terms, this result is highly relevant to the Aedes Control Programme in Panama since it constitutes a feasible approach for the timely detection of resistance as well as for the development of strategies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-019-3309-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evolutionary analysis of the Chikungunya virus epidemic in Mexico reveals intra-host mutational hotspots in the E1 protein

The epidemic potential of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) was recently made evident by its introduction and rapid expansion in the Caribbean and the Americas. We sought to gain a detailed understanding of the dynamics of the epidemic in Mexico, the country with the highest number of confirmed CHIKV cases in the Americas, and to characterise viral evolution at the population and intra-host level. Analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of 2,739 diagnosed cases in Mexico from December 2014 to December 2015 showed a rapid nationwide expansion of the epidemic with focalisation in the South West of the country. We sequenced the envelope glycoprotein 1 gene (E1) from 25 patients using the Illumina MiSeq platform and report synonymous and non-synonymous consensus mutations. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis using 249 Asian lineage E1 sequences gave updated estimates of nucleotide substitution rates for E1 and time to most recent common ancestor of major lineages. The analysis indicates phylogenetically-related emergent Latin American clusters in South Western Mexico, Nicaragua and Honduras and transmission of American strains in the Pacific islands. Detailed analysis showed that intra-host changes in E1 mainly occurred in two variable regions (E1:189-220 and E1:349-358) in domains II and III, respectively, in residues involved in inter and intra-envelope spike interactions. At the population level, this study sheds light on the introduction and evolutionary dynamics of CHIKV in the Americas. At the intra-host level, this study identifies mutational hotspots of the E1 protein with implications for understanding the relationship between the CHIKV quasispecies, viral fitness and pathogenesis.

Human and Equine Infection with Alphaviruses and Flaviviruses in Panamá during 2010: A Cross-Sectional Study of Household Contacts during an Encephalitis Outbreak

Members of the genera Alphavirus (family Togaviridae) and Flavivirus (family Flaviridae) are important zoonotic human and equine etiologic agents of neurologic diseases in the New World. In 2010, an outbreak of Madariaga virus (MADV; formerly eastern equine encephalitis virus) and Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus (VEEV) infections was reported in eastern Panamá. We further characterized the epidemiology of the outbreak by studying household contacts of confirmed human cases and of equine cases with neurological disease signs. Serum samples were screened using a hemagglutination inhibition test, and human results were confirmed using plaque reduction neutralization tests. A generalized linear model was used to evaluate the human MADV and VEEV seroprevalence ratios by age (in tercile) and gender. Overall, antibody prevalence for human MADV infection was 19.4%, VEEV 33.3%, and Mayaro virus 1.4%. In comparison with individuals aged 2-20 years, people from older age groups (21-41 and > 41 years) were five times more likely to have antibodies against VEEV, whereas the MADV prevalence ratio was independent of age. The overall seroprevalence of MADV in equids was 26.3%, VEEV 29.4%, West Nile virus (WNV) 2.6%, and St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) was 63.0%. Taken together, our results suggest that multiple arboviruses are circulating in human and equine populations in Panamá. Our findings of a lack of increase in the seroprevalence ratio with age support the hypothesis of recent MADV exposure to people living in the affected region.