Estimating dengue under-reporting in Puerto Rico using a multiplier model

Age-specific case data reveal varying dengue transmission intensity in US states and territories

Dengue viruses (DENV) are endemic in the US territories of Puerto Rico, American Samoa, and the US Virgin Islands, with focal outbreaks also reported in the states of Florida and Hawaii. However, little is known about the intensity of dengue virus transmission over time and how dengue viruses have shaped the level of immunity in these populations, despite the importance of understanding how and why levels of immunity against dengue may change over time. These changes need to be considered when responding to future outbreaks and enacting dengue management strategies, such as guiding vaccine deployment. We used catalytic models fitted to case surveillance data stratified by age from the ArboNET national arboviral surveillance system to reconstruct the history of recent dengue virus transmission in Puerto Rico, American Samoa, US Virgin Islands, Florida, Hawaii, and Guam. We estimated average annual transmission intensity (i.e., force of infection) of DENV between 2010 and 2019 and the level of seroprevalence by age group in each population. We compared models and found that assuming all reported cases are secondary infections generally fit the surveillance data better than assuming all cases are primary infections. Using the secondary case model, we found that force of infection was highly heterogeneous between jurisdictions and over time within jurisdictions, ranging from 0.00008 (95% CrI: 0.00002-0.0004) in Florida to 0.08 (95% CrI: 0.044-0.14) in American Samoa during the 2010-2019 period. For early 2020, we estimated that seropositivity in 10 year-olds ranged from 0.09% (0.02%-0.54%) in Florida to 56.3% (43.7%-69.3%) in American Samoa. In the absence of serological data, age-specific case notification data collected through routine surveillance combined with mathematical modeling are powerful tools to monitor arbovirus circulation, estimate the level of population immunity, and design dengue management strategies.

Epidemiology and burden of dengue fever in the United States: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Dengue is currently a global concern. The range of dengue vectors is expanding with climate change, yet United States of America (USA) studies on dengue epidemiology and burden are limited. This systematic review sought to characterize the epidemiology and disease burden of dengue within the USA.

METHODS

Studies evaluating travel-related and endemic dengue in US states and territories were identified and qualitatively summarized. Commentaries and studies on ex-US cases were excluded. MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library, Latin American and Caribbean Center of Health Sciences Information, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination and Clinicaltrials.gov were searched through January 2022.

RESULTS

116 studies were included. In US states, dengue incidence was generally low, with spikes occurring in recent years in 2013-16 (0.17-0.31 cases/100,000) and peaking in 2019 (0.35 cases/100,000). Most cases (94%, n = 7895, 2010-21) were travel related. Dengue was more common in Puerto Rico (cumulative average: 200 cases/100,000, 1980-2015); in 2010-21, 99.9% of cases were locally acquired. There were <50 severe cases in US states (2010-17); fatal cases were even rarer. Severe cases in Puerto Rico peaked in 1998 (n = 173) and 2021 (n = 76). Besides lower income, risk factors in US states included having birds in residence, suggesting unspecified environmental characteristics favourable to dengue vectors. Commonly reported symptoms included fever, headache and rash; median disease duration was 3.5-11 days. Hospitalization rates increased following 2009 World Health Organization disease classification changes (pre-2009: 0-54%; post-2009: 14-75%); median length of stay was 2.7-8 days (Puerto Rico) and 2-3 days (US states). Hospitalization costs/case (2010 USD) were$14 350 (US states),$1764-$5497 (Puerto Rico) and$4207 (US Virgin Islands). In Puerto Rico, average days missed were 0.2-5.3 (work) and 2.5 (school).

CONCLUSIONS

Though dengue risk is ongoing, treatments are limited, and dengue's economic burden is high. There is an urgent need for additional preventive and therapeutic interventions.

Predominance of Severe Plasma Leakage in Pediatric Patients With Severe Dengue in Puerto Rico

BACKGROUND

We evaluated clinical and laboratory findings among patients with nonsevere or severe dengue in Puerto Rico to examine whether clinical manifestations vary by age.

METHODS

During 2012-2014, we enrolled patients who arrived at the emergency department with fever or history of fever within 7 days of presentation. Serum samples were tested for dengue virus (DENV) by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Severe dengue was defined as severe plasma leakage or shock, severe bleeding, or organ involvement at presentation, during hospitalization, or follow-up.

RESULTS

Of 1089 dengue patients identified, 281 (26%) were severe. Compared to those with nonsevere dengue, patients with severe dengue were more often aged 10-19 years (55% vs 40%, P < .001) and hospitalized (87% vs 30%, P < .001). Severe plasma leakage or shock was more common among children aged 0-9 (59%) or 10-19 years (86%) than adults (49%) (P < .01). Severe bleeding was less common among 10-19 year olds (24%) compared to 0-9 year olds (45%) and adults (52%; P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

Severe plasma leakage was the most common presentation among children, highlighting important differences from adults. Vaccination against dengue could help prevent severe dengue among children in Puerto Rico.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of implementing a 'pre-vaccination screening' strategy with the dengue vaccine in Puerto Rico

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommended 'pre-vaccination screening' as its preferred implementation strategy when using the licensed dengue vaccine (CYD-TDV; Dengvaxia, Sanofi), so that only individuals with previous dengue infection are vaccinated. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended use of CYD-TDV to prevent dengue in children with previous laboratory-confirmed dengue infection in regions where dengue is endemic. Here, we evaluate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of a 'pre-vaccination screening' strategy in Puerto Rico.

METHODS

The current analysis builds upon a previously published transmission model used to assess the benefits/risks associated with dengue vaccination. For 'pre-vaccination screening', three alternative testing methods were assessed: one using an immunoglobulin G (IgG) enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) dengue serotest, another with dengue serotesting using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and one using both sequentially (as recommended in Puerto Rico). The time horizon considered was 10 years.

RESULTS

In Puerto Rico, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted for 'pre-vaccination screening' with an ELISA-based program, RDT-based program, and both sequentially would be a median 1,192 (95% CI: 716-2,232), 2,812 (95% CI: 1,579-5,019), and 1,017 (95% CI: 561-1,738), respectively. These benefits would arise from the reduction in cases: median 24,961 (95% CI: 17,480-36,782), 58,273 (95% CI: 40,729-84,796), 20,775 (95% CI: 14,637-30,374) fewer cases, respectively. The cost per DALY averted from a payer perspective would be US$12,518 (95 %CI: US$4,749-26,922), US$10,047 (95% CI: US$3,350-23,852), and US$12,334 (95% CI: US$4,965-26,444), respectively. All three strategies would be cost saving from a societal perspective.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study supports the WHO and CDC 'pre-vaccination screening' guidance for CYD-TDV implementation. In Puerto Rico, regardless of the testing strategy and even with a relatively low rate of testing, it would be cost-effective from a payer perspective and cost saving from a societal perspective.

An ensemble forecast system for tracking dynamics of dengue outbreaks and its validation in China

As a common vector-borne disease, dengue fever remains challenging to predict due to large variations in epidemic size across seasons driven by a number of factors including population susceptibility, mosquito density, meteorological conditions, geographical factors, and human mobility. An ensemble forecast system for dengue fever is first proposed that addresses the difficulty of predicting outbreaks with drastically different scales. The ensemble forecast system based on a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type of compartmental model coupled with a data assimilation method called the ensemble adjusted Kalman filter (EAKF) is constructed to generate real-time forecasts of dengue fever spread dynamics. The model was informed by meteorological and mosquito density information to depict the transmission of dengue virus among human and mosquito populations, and generate predictions. To account for the dramatic variations of outbreak size in different seasons, the effective population size parameter that is sequentially updated to adjust the predicted outbreak scale is introduced into the model. Before optimizing the transmission model, we update the effective population size using the most recent observations and historical records so that the predicted outbreak size is dynamically adjusted. In the retrospective forecast of dengue outbreaks in Guangzhou, China during the 2011-2017 seasons, the proposed forecast model generates accurate projections of peak timing, peak intensity, and total incidence, outperforming a generalized additive model approach. The ensemble forecast system can be operated in real-time and inform control planning to reduce the burden of dengue fever.

The seroepidemiology of dengue in a US military population based in Puerto Rico during the early phase of the Zika pandemic

Understanding the burden and risk factors of dengue virus (DENV) infection in Puerto Rico is important for the prevention of dengue in local, traveler and military populations. Using sera from the Department of Defense Serum Repository, we estimated the prevalence and predictors of DENV seropositivity in those who had served in Puerto Rico, stratified by birth or prior residence (“birth/residence”) in dengue-endemic versus non-endemic regions. We selected sera collected in early 2015 from 500 U.S. military members, a time-point also permitting detection of early cryptic Zika virus (ZIKV) circulation. 87.2% were born or resided in a DENV-endemic area before their military service in Puerto Rico. A high-throughput, flow-cytometry-based neutralization assay was employed to screen sera for ZIKV and DENV neutralizing antibodies, and confirmatory testing was done by plaque-reduction neutralization test (PRNT). We identified one Puerto Rico resident who seroconverted to ZIKV by June 2015, suggesting cryptic ZIKV circulation in Puerto Rico at least 4 months before the first reported cases. A further six PRNT-positive presumptive ZIKV infections which were resolved as DENV infections only by the use of paired sera. We noted 66.8% of the total study sample was DENV seropositive by early 2015. Logistic regression analysis indicated that birth/residence in a dengue non-endemic region (before military service in Puerto Rico) was associated with a lower odds of DENV exposure by January—June 2015 (aOR = 0.28, p = 0.001). Among those with birth/residence in a non-endemic country, we noted moderate evidence to support increase in odds of DENV exposure for each year of military service in Puerto Rico (aOR = 1.58, p = 0.06), but no association with age. In those with birth/residence in dengue-endemic regions (before military service in Puerto Rico), we noted that age (aOR = 1.04, p = 0.02), rather than duration of Puerto Rico service, was associated with dengue seropositivity, suggesting earlier lifetime DENV exposure. Our findings provide insights into the burden and predictors of DENV infection in local, traveler and military populations in Puerto Rico. Our study also highlights substantial PRNT ZIKV false-positivity when paired sera are not available, even during periods of very low ZIKV prevalence.

Taylor-Robinson A, Wu YS, Aung YN, Low WY, Sim MS, Sekaran SD, Azizan N. Different domains of dengue research in the Philippines: A systematic review and meta-analysis of questionnaire-based studies

Background

Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease of humans worldwide, including southeast Asia region. This review provides a comprehensive overview of questionnaire-related dengue studies conducted in the Philippines and evaluates their reliability and validity in these surveys.

Methods

A review protocol constructed by a panel of experienced academic reviewers was used to formulate the methodology, research design, search strategy and selection criteria. An extensive literature search was conducted between March–June 2020 in various major electronic biomedical databases including PubMed, EMBASE, MEDLINE and ScienceDirect. A systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) were selected as the preferred item reporting method.

Results

Out of a total of 34 peer-reviewed dengue-related KAP studies that were identified, 15 published from 2000 to April 2020 met the inclusion criteria. Based on the meta-analysis, a poor mean score was obtained for each of knowledge (68.89), attitude (49.86) and preventive practice (64.69). Most respondents were equipped with a good knowledge of the major clinical signs of dengue. Worryingly, 95% of respondents showed several negative attitudes towards dengue prevention, claiming that this was not possible and that enacting preventive practices was not their responsibility. Interestingly, television or radio was claimed as the main source of gaining dengue information (range 50–95%). Lastly, only five articles (33.3%) piloted or pretested their questionnaire before surveying, of which three reported Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (range 0.70 to 0.90).

Conclusion

This review indicates that to combat the growing public health threat of dengue to the Philippines, we need the active participation of resident communities, full engagement of healthcare personnel, promotion of awareness campaigns, and access to safe complementary and alternative medicines. Importantly, the psychometric properties of each questionnaire should be assessed rigorously.

Assessing the Quality of Reporting to China's National TB Surveillance Systems

(1) Background: The reliability of disease surveillance may be restricted by sensitivity or ability to capture all disease. Objective: To quantify under-reporting and concordance of recording persons with tuberculosis (TB) in national TB surveillance systems: the Infectious Disease Reporting System (IDRS) and Tuberculosis Information Management System (TBIMS). (2) Methods: This retrospective review includes 4698 patients identified in 2016 in China. County staff linked TB patients identified from facility-specific health and laboratory information systems with records in IDRS and TBIMS. Under-reporting was calculated, and timeliness, concordance, accuracy, and completeness were analyzed. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine factors associated with under-reporting. (3) Results: We found that 505 (10.7%) patients were missing within IDRS and 1451 (30.9%) patients were missing within TBIMS. Of 171 patient records reviewed in IDRS and 170 patient records in TBIMS, 12.3% and 6.5% were found to be untimely, and 10.7% and 7.1% were found to have an inconsistent home address. The risk of under-reporting to both IDRS and TBIMS was greatest at tertiary health facilities and among non-residents; the risk of under-reporting to TBIMS was greatest with patients aged 65 or older and with extrapulmonary TB (EPTB). (4) Conclusions: It is important to improve the reporting and recording of TB patients. Local TB programs that focus on training, and mentoring high-burden hospitals, facilities that cater to EPTB, and migrant patients may improve reporting and recording.

Assessing the reporting of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika to the National Surveillance System in Colombia from 2014-2017: A Capture-recapture analysis accounting for misclassification of arboviral diagnostics

BACKGROUND

Chikungunya, dengue, and Zika are three different arboviruses which have similar symptoms and are a major public health issue in Colombia. Despite the mandatory reporting of these arboviruses to the National Surveillance System in Colombia (SIVIGILA), it has been reported that the system captures less than 10% of diagnosed cases in some cities.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

To assess the scope and degree of arboviruses reporting in Colombia between 2014-2017, we conducted an observational study of surveillance data using the capture-recapture approach in three Colombian cities. Using healthcare facility registries (capture data) and surveillance-notified cases (recapture data), we estimated the degree of reporting by clinical diagnosis. We fit robust Poisson regressions to identify predictors of reporting and estimated the predicted probability of reporting by disease and year. To account for the potential misclassification of the clinical diagnosis, we used the simulation extrapolation for misclassification (MC-SIMEX) method. A total of 266,549 registries were examined. Overall arboviruses' reporting ranged from 5.3% to 14.7% and varied in magnitude according to age and year of diagnosis. Dengue was the most notified disease (21-70%) followed by Zika (6-45%). The highest reporting rate was seen in 2016, an epidemic year. The MC-SIMEX corrected rates indicated underestimation of the reporting due to the potential misclassification bias.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings reflect challenges on arboviruses' reporting, and therefore, potential challenges on the estimation of arboviral burden in Colombia and other endemic settings with similar surveillance systems.

Lessons Learned from Dengue Surveillance and Research, Puerto Rico, 1899-2013

Dengue was first reported in Puerto Rico in 1899 and sporadically thereafter. Following outbreaks in 1963 and 1969, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked closely with the Puerto Rico Department of Health to monitor and reduce the public health burden of dengue. During that time, evolving epidemiologic scenarios have provided opportunities to establish, improve, and expand disease surveillance and interventional research projects. These initiatives have enriched the tools available to the global public health community to understand and combat dengue, including diagnostic tests, methods for disease and vector surveillance, and vector control techniques. Our review serves as a guide to organizations seeking to establish dengue surveillance and research programs by highlighting accomplishments, challenges, and lessons learned during more than a century of dengue surveillance and research conducted in Puerto Rico.

[1,2,4]Triazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidine derivative (Mol-5) is a new NS5-RdRp inhibitor of DENV2 proliferation and DENV2-induced inflammation

Dengue fever is an acute infectious disease caused by dengue virus (DENV) and transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. There is no effective vaccine or antiviral drug available to date to prevent or treat dengue disease. Recently, RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp), a class of polymerases involved in the synthesis of complementary RNA strands using single-stranded RNA, has been proposed as a promising drug target. Hence, we screened new molecules against DENV RdRp using our previously constructed virtual screening method. Mol-5, [1,2,4]triazolo[1,5-a]pyrimidine derivative, was screened out from an antiviral compound library (~8000 molecules). Using biophysical methods, we confirmed the direct interactions between mol-5 and purified DENV RdRp protein. In luciferase assay, mol-5 inhibited NS5-RdRp activity with an IC₅₀ value of 1.28 ± 0.2 μM. In the cell-based cytopathic effect (CPE) assay, mol-5 inhibited DENV2 infectivity with an EC₅₀ value of 4.5 ± 0.08 μM. Mol-5 also potently inhibited DENV2 RNA replication as observed in immunofluorescence assay and qRT-PCR. Both the viral structural (E) and non-structural (NS1) proteins of DENV2 were dose-dependently decreased by treatment with mol-5 (2.5–10 μM). Mol-5 treatment suppressed DENV2-induced inflammation in host cells, but had no direct effect on host defense (JAK/STAT-signaling pathway). These results demonstrate that mol-5 could be a novel RdRp inhibitor amenable for further research and development.

Temperature impacts on dengue emergence in the United States: Investigating the role of seasonality and climate change

Tropical mosquito-borne viruses have been expanding into more temperate regions in recent decades. This is partly due to the coupled effects of temperature on mosquito life history traits and viral infection dynamics and warming surface temperatures, resulting in more suitable conditions for vectors and virus transmission. In this study, we use a deterministic ordinary differential equations model to investigate how seasonal and diurnal temperature fluctuations affect the potential for dengue transmission in six U.S. cities. We specifically consider temperature-dependent mosquito larval development, adult mosquito mortality, and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. We show that the ability of introductions to lead to outbreaks depends upon the relationship between a city's temperature profile and the time of year at which the initial case is introduced. We also investigate how the potential for outbreaks changes with predicted future increases in mean temperatures due to climate change. We find that climate change will likely lead to increases in suitability for dengue transmission and will increase the periods of the year in which introductions may lead to outbreaks, particularly in cities that typically have mild winters and warm summers, such as New Orleans, Louisiana, and El Paso, Texas. We discuss our results in the context of temperature heterogeneity within and across cities and how these differences may impact the potential for dengue emergence given present day and predicted future temperatures.

Economic impact of dengue in Mexico considering reported cases for 2012 to 2016

Background

Given that dengue disease is growing and may progress to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), data on economic cost and disease burden are important. However, data for Mexico are limited.

Methodology/Principal findings

Burden of dengue fever (DF) and DHF in Mexico was assessed using official databases for epidemiological information, disabilities weights from Shepard et al, the reported number of cases and deaths, and costs. Overall costs of dengue were summed from direct medical costs to the health system, cost of dengue to the patient (out-of-pocket expenses [medical and non-medical], indirect costs [loss of earnings, patient and/or caregiver]), and other government expenditures on prevention/surveillance. The first three components, calculated as costs per case by a micro-costing approach (PAATI; program, actions, activities, tasks, inputs), were scaled up to overall cost using epidemiology data from official databases. PAATI was used to calculate cost of vector control and prevention, education, and epidemiological surveillance, based on an expert consensus and normative construction of an ideal scenario.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for Mexico in 2016 were calculated to be 2283.46 (1.87 per 100,000 inhabitants). Overall economic impact of dengue in Mexico for 2012 was US$144 million, of which US$44 million corresponded to direct medical costs and US$5 million to the costs from the patient’s perspective. The estimated cost of prevention/surveillance was calculated with information provided by federal government to be US$95 million. The overall economic impact of DF and DHF showed an increase in 2013 to US$161 million and a decrease to US$133, US$131 and US$130 million in 2014, 2015 and 2016, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

The medical and economic impact of dengue were in agreement with other international studies, and highlight the need to include governmental expenditure for prevention/surveillance in overall cost analyses given the high economic impact of these, increasing the necessity to evaluate its effectiveness.

Dengue fever is caused by a flavivirus transmitted predominantly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. Infection causes a broad spectrum of clinical signs and symptoms, from mild disease, such as dengue fever to a life threatening form known as dengue hemorrhagic fever. The disease is widespread in tropical regions. Measures such as vector control can slow the spread of infection, and most countries where the disease is endemic, Mexico included, have programs in place to this end. However, faced with other health issues that also require attention, it is important to quantify the suffering caused by dengue and also its economic costs. In this study, we aimed to produce detailed figures for Mexico to complement and refine those available from international studies. Such information will help guide how the money budgeted for health in dengue is spent.