Incidence and epidemiological features of dengue in Sabah, Malaysia

Assessing dengue risk globally using non-Markovian models

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes. The worldwide spread of these mosquitoes and the increasing disease burden have emphasized the need for a spatio-temporal risk map capable of assessing dengue outbreak conditions and quantifying the outbreak risk. Given that the life cycle of Aedes mosquitoes is strongly influenced by habitat temperature, numerous studies have utilized temperature-dependent development rates of these mosquitoes to construct virus transmission and outbreak risk models. In this study, we contribute to existing research by developing a mechanistic model for the mosquito life cycle that accurately captures its non-Markovian nature. Beginning with integral equations to track the mosquito population across different life cycle stages, we demonstrate how to derive the corresponding differential equations using phase-type distributions. This approach can be further applied to similar non-Markovian processes that are currently described with less accurate Markovian models. By fitting the model to data on human dengue cases, we estimate several model parameters, allowing the development of a global spatiotemporal dengue risk map. This risk model employs temperature and precipitation data to assess the environmental suitability for dengue outbreaks in a given area.

Exploring community needs in combating aedes mosquitoes and dengue fever: a study with urban community in the recurrent hotspot area

BACKGROUND

Aedes mosquitoes are the main vector of dengue infection, a global health threat affecting millions of people annually. Conventional prevention and control methods against dengue outbreaks have only achieved marginal success. Recognizing the complex issue at hand, a multilevel participatory approach is crucial. Thus, alternative strategies that involve community engagement are increasingly being considered and attempted. While community-based vector control programs have been conducted, sustaining behavioral changes among the population remains a challenge. This study aimed to identify the specific community needs in combating Aedes mosquitoes and dengue fever as a basis to guide the development of community-driven initiatives and foster a deeper sense of ownership in the fight against dengue.

METHODS

Between 1 August 2022 and 30 November 2022, we conducted a study in Hulu Langat district, Selangor, using a mixed-method design. All participants consented to the study, which comprised 27 participants (FGDs) and 15 participants (IDIs). The IDIs included two participants with a history of dengue fever, one community leader, one faith leader, seven local authorities, and four district health officers. Semi-structured interviews and discussions were performed among stakeholders and community members recruited via purposive and snowball sampling techniques. All interviews were audio-recorded before being analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis.

RESULTS

These results derived from qualitative data explored the perspectives and needs of communities in combating Aedes mosquitoes and dengue fever. Interviews were conducted with various stakeholders, including community members, leaders, and health officers. The study identified the necessity of decisive actions by authorities to address the impact of the dengue epidemic, the importance of community engagement through partnerships and participatory approaches, the potential benefits of incentives and rewards to enhance community participation, and the need for sustained community engagement and education, especially via the involvement of young people in prevention efforts. These findings provide valuable insights into the design of effective strategies against Aedes mosquitoes and dengue fever.

CONCLUSIONS

In short, there is an urgent need for a comprehensive approach involving multiple stakeholders in the fight against Aedes mosquitoes and dengue fever. The approach should incorporate efforts to raise awareness, provide practical resources, and foster community responsibility. The active involvement of teenagers as volunteers can contribute to long-term prevention efforts. Collaboration, resource allocation, and community engagement are crucial for effective dengue control and a healthier environment.

The incidence, and spatial trends of cholera in Sabah over 15 years: Repeated outbreaks in coastal areas

Vibrio cholerae remains a notable public health challenge across Malaysia. Although the Malaysian state of Sabah is considered a cholera-affected area, gaps remain in understanding the epidemiological trends and spatial distribution of outbreaks. Therefore, to determine longitudinal and spatial trends in cholera cases data were obtained from the Sabah State Health Department for all notified cases of cholera between 2005-2020. A cholera outbreak is defined as one or more confirmed cases in a single locality with the evidence of local transmission. All records were geolocated to village level. Satellite-derived data and generalised linearized models were used to assess potential risk factors, including population density, elevation, and distance to the sea. Spatiotemporal clustering of reported cholera cases and zones of increased cholera risk were evaluated using the tau statistic (τ) at 550m, 5km and 10km distances. Over a 15-year period between 2005-2020, 2865 cholera cases were recorded in Sabah, with a mean incidence rate of 5.6 cases per 100,000 (95% CI: 3.4-7.9). From 2015-2020, 705 symptomatic cases and 727 asymptomatic cases were reported. Symptomatic cases primarily occurred in local Malaysian populations (62.6%, 441/705) and in children and adolescents under 15-years old (49.4%, 348/705). On average, cases were reported in areas with low population density (19.45 persons/km2), low elevations (19.45m) and near coastal areas. Spatiotemporal clustering of cholera cases was identified up to 3.5km, with increased village-level cholera risk within 500m and 5 days of initial case presentation to a health facility (Risk Ratio = 9.7, 95% CI: 7.5-12.4). Cholera incidence has high spatial and temporal heterogeneity within Sabah, with some districts experiencing repeated outbreaks. Cholera cases clustered across space and time, with village-level risk of cholera highest within 5 days and within close proximity to primary case villages, suggesting local transmission.

Predicting potential areas at risk of the Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Jakarta, Indonesia-analyzing the accuracy of predictive hot spot analysis in the absence of small geographical area data

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF), a more severe form of dengue, is one of the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne diseases in the world. This study is motivated by the rising DHF incidence in Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia. We mainly utilized hot spot analysis, which employs spatial statistics to find at-risk areas for DHF outbreaks in Jakarta's five municipalities. However, producing informative results from hot spot analysis requires a complete set of data on each of Jakarta's 42 districts, which is not available. We thus propose the idea of using small area estimation (SAE) and machine learning to make up for the lack of data. To evaluate whether this proposed method is effective, we compare the hot spot results from the estimation with the actual data of each district. The results show that the estimated hot spot map is similar to the hot spot map from the actual data. This implies that it is possible to find potential at-risk areas of dengue fever without a complete dataset in every small geographic area. We expect that this research can increase the performance of DHF control measures at the district level, even in the absence of small area data.

PICTUREE-Aedes: A Web Application for Dengue Data Visualization and Case Prediction

Dengue fever remains a significant public health concern in many tropical and subtropical countries, and there is still a need for a system that can effectively combine global risk assessment with timely incidence forecasting. This research describes an integrated application called PICTUREE-Aedes, which can collect and analyze dengue-related data, display simulation results, and forecast outbreak incidence. PICTUREE-Aedes automatically updates global temperature and precipitation data and contains historical records of dengue incidence (1960-2012) and Aedes mosquito occurrences (1960-2014) in its database. The application utilizes a mosquito population model to estimate mosquito abundance, dengue reproduction number, and dengue risk. To predict future dengue outbreak incidence, PICTUREE-Aedes applies various forecasting techniques, including the ensemble Kalman filter, recurrent neural network, particle filter, and super ensemble forecast, which are all based on user-entered case data. The PICTUREE-Aedes' risk estimation identifies favorable conditions for potential dengue outbreaks, and its forecasting accuracy is validated by available outbreak data from Cambodia.

Perspectives of vector management in the control and elimination of vector-borne zoonoses

The complex transmission profiles of vector-borne zoonoses (VZB) and vector-borne infections with animal reservoirs (VBIAR) complicate efforts to break the transmission circuit of these infections. To control and eliminate VZB and VBIAR, insecticide application may not be conducted easily in all circumstances, particularly for infections with sylvatic transmission cycle. As a result, alternative approaches have been considered in the vector management against these infections. In this review, we highlighted differences among the environmental, chemical, and biological control approaches in vector management, from the perspectives of VZB and VBIAR. Concerns and knowledge gaps pertaining to the available control approaches were discussed to better understand the prospects of integrating these vector control approaches to synergistically break the transmission of VZB and VBIAR in humans, in line with the integrated vector management (IVM) developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) since 2004.

Worldwide impacts of landscape anthropization on mosquito abundance and diversity: A meta-analysis

In recent decades, the emergence and resurgence of vector-borne diseases have been well documented worldwide, especially in tropical regions where protection and defense tools for human populations are still very limited. In this context, the dynamics of pathogens are influenced by landscape anthropization (i.e., urbanization, deforestation, and agricultural development), and one of the mechanisms through which this occurs is a change in the abundance and/or diversity of the vectors. An increasing number of empirical studies have described heterogeneous effects of landscape anthropization on vector communities; therefore, it is difficult to have an overall picture of these effects on a global scale. Here, we performed a meta-analysis to quantify the impacts of landscape anthropization on a global scale on the presence/abundance and diversity of mosquitoes, the most important arthropods affecting human health. We obtained 338 effect sizes on 132 mosquito species, compiled from 107 studies in 52 countries that covered almost every part of the world. The results of the meta-analysis showed an overall decline of mosquito presence/abundance and diversity in response to urbanization, deforestation, and agricultural development, except for a few mosquito species that have been able to exploit landscape anthropization well. Our results highlighted that these few favored mosquito species are those of global concern. They, thus, provide a better understanding of the overall effect of landscape anthropization on vector communities and, more importantly, suggest a greater risk of emergence and transmission of vector-borne diseases in human-modified landscapes.

Spatial dispersal of <em>Aedes albopictus</em> mosquitoes captured by the modified sticky ovitrap in Selangor, Malaysia

Dengue is a major mosquito-borne disease in many tropical and sub-tropical countries worldwide, with entomological surveillance and control activities as the key management approaches. This study aimed to explore the spatial dispersal of the vector Aedes albopictus, captured by the modified sticky ovitrap (MSO) in residential areas with low-rise buildings in Selangor, Malaysia. Distribution maps were created and shown as temporally distinguished classes based on hotspot analysis by Getis-Ord; spatial autocorrelation assessed by semivariograms using the exponential Kernel function; and universal Kriging showing areas with estimated high and low vector densities. Distribution, hotspot and interpolated maps were analysed based on the total number of mosquitoes by month and week. All maps in the present study were generated and visualised in ArcMap. Spatial autocorrelation of Ae. albopictus based on the monthly occurrence of Ae. albopictus was found in March, April, October, November and December 2018, and when based on the weekly numbers, in weeks 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 12, 14, 25, 26, 27, 31, 33, 42, 49 and 52. Semivariograms, based on the monthly and weekly numbers of Ae. albopictus, indicated spatial autocorrelation of the species extending between 50 and 70 m. The mosquito density maps reported in this study may provide beneficial information to facilitate implementation of more efficient entomological control activities.

Dengue and Dengue Virus in Guangdong, China, 1978-2017: Epidemiology, Seroprevalence, Evolution, and Policies

Background

Guangdong is a hyperepidemic area of dengue, which has over 0.72 million cumulative cases within the last four decades, accounting for more than 90% of cases in China. The local epidemic of dengue in Guangdong is suspected to be triggered by imported cases and results in consequent seasonal transmission. However, the comprehensive epidemiological characteristics of dengue in Guangdong are still unclear.

Methods

The epidemiology, seroprevalence, molecular evolution of dengue virus, and the development of policies and strategies on the prevention and control of dengue were analyzed in Guangdong, China from 1978 to 2017.

Findings

Seasonal transmission of dengue virus in Guangdong, China was mainly sustained from July to October of each year. August to September was the highest risk period of local dengue outbreaks. Most of the dengue cases in Guangdong were young and middle-aged adults. Five hundred and three fatal cases were recorded, which declined within the last two decades (n = 10). The serological test of healthy donors' serum samples showed a positive rate of 5.77%. Dengue virus 1-4 (DENV 1-4) was detected in Guangdong from 1978 to 2017. DENV 1 was the dominant serotype of dengue outbreaks from 1978 to 2017, with an increasing tendency of DENV 2 since 2010. Local outbreaks of DENV 3 were rare. DENV 4 was only encountered in imported cases in Guangdong, China. The imported cases were the main source of outbreaks of DENV 1-2. Early detection, management of dengue cases, and precise vector control were the key strategies for local dengue prevention and control in Guangdong, China.

Interpretation

Dengue has not become an endemic arboviral disease in Guangdong, China. Early detection, case management, and implementation of precise control strategies are key findings for preventing local dengue transmission, which may serve for countries still struggling to combat imported dengue in the west pacific areas.

A five-year retrospective study on the epidemiology of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sabah, Malaysia

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is endemic in Malaysia, with the number of cases increasing. Sabah has experienced several HFMD outbreaks, but information on the epidemiology and molecular characteristics of responsible viruses is scarce. In this study, data of 17,574 reports of HFMD cases in Sabah from 2015 to 2019 were extracted from a public health disease surveillance system and analyzed. Twenty-one swab samples from 13 children were collected from Beaufort, Sabah, during an outbreak in August 2018 for detection and serotyping of causative viruses by semi-nested reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (snRT-PCR) of the VP4–VP2 region and consensus degenerate hybrid oligonucleotide primer PCR of the VP1 region, respectively. Nucleotide sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were conducted by the neighbor-joining method. The average annual incidence of HFMD was 94.3 per 100,000 people, with the greatest yearly increase between 2017 and 2018. Swabs from six children were tested positive for enterovirus, of which five were positive for CVA16 and one for EV71. All CVA16 strains belonged to sub-genotype B1a, and the EV71 strain belonged to sub-genotype B5. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that enterovirus genotype shift might be responsible for the increasing trend of HFMD in Sabah, however, further study is needed.

Development and validation of a structured survey questionnaire on knowledge, attitude, preventive practice, and treatment-seeking behaviour regarding dengue among the resident population of Sabah, Malaysia: an exploratory factor analysis

BACKGROUND

Several studies have reported a significant association of knowledge, attitude and preventive practice (KAP) regarding dengue infection among community's resident in endemic areas. In this study we aimed to assess and develop a reliable and valid KAP survey on the subject of dengue that is suitable for the resident population of Sabah, Malaysia.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from October 2019 to February 2020 involving 468 respondents. Information on the socio-demographic characteristics of the participants (six items), their KAP (44, 15 and 18 items on knowledge, attitude and practice, respectively) and treatment-seeking behaviour (five items) towards dengue was collected using a structured questionnaire. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and R software in the R Studio environment. The knowledge section was analysed by two-parameter logistic item response theory (2-PL IRT) using ltm package. The construct validity and reliability of items for sections on attitude, practice and treatment-seeking behaviour were analysed using psy package.

RESULTS

For the knowledge section, only 70.5% (31/44) of items were within or close to the parameter acceptable range of -3 to + 3 of difficulty. In terms of discrimination, 65.9% (29/44) of items were within or close to the acceptable range of 0.35 to 2.5, and 24 items (54.5%) failed to fit the 2-PL IRT model (P < 0.05) after assessing by goodness-of-fit analysis. Only eight items were reliable and retained in the attitude section with a Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) test value of > 0.7, while based on the communalities, 11 items in the attitude section were excluded due to very low h2, factor loading values and low correlation with the total (< 0.5). The practice section was found suitable for factor analysis because the KMO value was > 0.7. The communalities of the practice section showed that seven items had low h2 values (< 0.3), which were therefore excluded from further analysis, and only 11 items were retained.

CONCLUSIONS

The KAP items retained in the final version of the survey were reliable and valid to be use as a questionnaire reference when conducting future similar studies among the population of Sabah.

Assessment of Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Regarding Dengue among Physicians: A Web-Based Cross-Sectional Survey

Dengue fever is one of the most important viral infections transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes and a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Accurate identification of cases and treatment of dengue patients at the early stages can reduce medical complications and dengue mortality rate. This survey aims to determine the knowledge, attitude, and practices (KAP) among physicians in dengue diagnosis and treatment. This study was conducted among physicians in Turkey as one nonendemic country and Bangladesh, India, and Malaysia as three dengue-endemic countries. The dosing frequencies, maximum doses, and contraindications in dengue fever were examined. The results found that physicians from Bangladesh, India, and Malaysia have higher KAP scores in dengue diagnosis and treatment compared to physicians in Turkey. This may be due to a lack of physician's exposure to a dengue patient as Turkey is considered a nonendemic country. This assessment may help establish a guideline for intervention strategies among physicians to have successful treatment outcomes and reduce dengue mortality.

Different Domains of Dengue Research in Malaysia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Questionnaire-Based Studies

This review provided a systematic overview of the questionnaire-related dengue studies conducted in Malaysia and evaluated their reliability and validity used in the questionnaires. An extensive literature search was conducted using various electronic databases, including PubMed, EMBASE, Medline, and ScienceDirect. Systematic reviews and meta-analysis (PRISMA) were selected as the preferred item reporting method. Out of 88 identified dengue-related, 57 published from 2000 to April 2020 met the inclusion criteria and were included. Based on the meta-analysis, a poor mean score was obtained for knowledge (49%), attitude (44%), and preventive practice (55%). The study showed that the level of knowledge on cardinal signs and modes of transmission for dengue virus were highest among health care workers, followed by students (international and local) and lastly community residents. In treatment-seeking behaviours, only half of the respondents (50.8%) would send their child to the nearest health clinics or hospitals when a child became restless or lethargic. The acceptance rate for dengue vaccine, bacteria (Wolbachia), as a vector for dengue control and self-test diagnostic kit for dengue showed considerably high (88.4%, 70%, and 44.8%, respectively). Health belief model (HBM) constructs, such as perceived barriers, perceived severity, perceived susceptibility, self-efficacy, and perceived benefit influence prevention practices. Lastly, only 23 articles (40.3%) had piloted or pretested the questionnaire before surveying, in which three reported Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.70-0.90). A need for active participation of communities and healthcare personnel, promotion of awareness, and safe complementary medicines, as well as assessment of psychometric properties of questionnaire use in dengue surveys in Malaysia, in order for assessing dengue reliably and valid.

Modelling the interdependent relationships among epidemic antecedents using fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (F-MADM) approaches

With the high incidence of the dengue epidemic in developing countries, it is crucial to understand its dynamics from a holistic perspective. This paper analyzes different types of antecedents from a cybernetics perspective using a structural modelling approach. The novelty of this paper is twofold. First, it analyzes antecedents that may be social, institutional, environmental, or economic in nature. Since this type of study has not been done in the context of the dengue epidemic modelling, this paper offers a fresh perspective on this topic. Second, the paper pioneers the use of fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (F-MADM) approaches for the modelling of epidemic antecedents. As such, the paper has provided an avenue for the cross-fertilization of knowledge between scholars working in soft computing and epidemiological modelling domains.