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Smith MJ, Phillips RV, Luque-Fernandez MA, Maringe C. Application of targeted maximum likelihood estimation in public health and epidemiological studies: a systematic review. Ann Epidemiol 2023; 86:34-48.e28. [PMID: 37343734 DOI: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2023.06.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/03/2023] [Revised: 05/24/2023] [Accepted: 06/06/2023] [Indexed: 06/23/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE The targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) statistical data analysis framework integrates machine learning, statistical theory, and statistical inference to provide a least biased, efficient, and robust strategy for estimation and inference of a variety of statistical and causal parameters. We describe and evaluate the epidemiological applications that have benefited from recent methodological developments. METHODS We conducted a systematic literature review in PubMed for articles that applied any form of TMLE in observational studies. We summarized the epidemiological discipline, geographical location, expertize of the authors, and TMLE methods over time. We used the Roadmap of Targeted Learning and Causal Inference to extract key methodological aspects of the publications. We showcase the contributions to the literature of these TMLE results. RESULTS Of the 89 publications included, 33% originated from the University of California at Berkeley, where the framework was first developed by Professor Mark van der Laan. By 2022, 59% of the publications originated from outside the United States and explored up to seven different epidemiological disciplines in 2021-2022. Double-robustness, bias reduction, and model misspecification were the main motivations that drew researchers toward the TMLE framework. Through time, a wide variety of methodological, tutorial, and software-specific articles were cited, owing to the constant growth of methodological developments around TMLE. CONCLUSIONS There is a clear dissemination trend of the TMLE framework to various epidemiological disciplines and to increasing numbers of geographical areas. The availability of R packages, publication of tutorial papers, and involvement of methodological experts in applied publications have contributed to an exponential increase in the number of studies that understood the benefits and adoption of TMLE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Matthew J Smith
- Inequalities in Cancer Outcomes Network, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Rachael V Phillips
- Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA
| | - Miguel Angel Luque-Fernandez
- Inequalities in Cancer Outcomes Network, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
| | - Camille Maringe
- Inequalities in Cancer Outcomes Network, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Aiemjoy K, Seidman JC, Charles RC, Andrews JR. Seroepidemiology for Enteric Fever: Emerging Approaches and Opportunities. Open Forum Infect Dis 2023; 10:S21-S25. [PMID: 37274530 PMCID: PMC10236506 DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofad021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/06/2023] Open
Abstract
Safe and effective typhoid conjugate vaccines (TCVs) are available, but many countries lack the high-resolution data needed to prioritize TCV introduction to the highest-risk communities. Here we discuss seroepidemiology-an approach using antibody response data to characterize infection burden-as a potential tool to fill this data gap. Serologic tests for typhoid have existed for over a hundred years, but only recently were antigens identified that were sensitive and specific enough to use as epidemiologic markers. These antigens, coupled with new methodological developments, permit estimating seroincidence-the rate at which new infections occur in a population-from cross-sectional serosurveys. These new tools open up many possible applications for enteric fever seroepidemiology, including generating high-resolution surveillance data, monitoring vaccine impact, and integrating with other serosurveillance initiatives. Challenges remain, including distinguishing Salmonella Typhi from Salmonella Paratyphi infections and accounting for reinfections. Enteric fever seroepidemiology can be conducted at a fraction of the cost, time, and sample size of surveillance blood culture studies and may enable more efficient and scalable surveillance for this important infectious disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristen Aiemjoy
- Correspondence: Kristen Aiemjoy, PhD, MSc, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis School of Medicine, One Shields Ave, Medical Sciences 1C, Davis, CA 95616 (); Jason Andrews, MD, SM, DTM&H, Stanford University School of Medicine, 300 Pasteur Dr, Rm S101D, MC 5107, Stanford, CA 94305 ()
| | | | - Richelle C Charles
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
- Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Jason R Andrews
- Correspondence: Kristen Aiemjoy, PhD, MSc, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis School of Medicine, One Shields Ave, Medical Sciences 1C, Davis, CA 95616 (); Jason Andrews, MD, SM, DTM&H, Stanford University School of Medicine, 300 Pasteur Dr, Rm S101D, MC 5107, Stanford, CA 94305 ()
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Arzika AM, Mindo-Panusis D, Abdou A, Kadri B, Nassirou B, Maliki R, Alsoudi AF, Zhang T, Cotter SY, Lebas E, O’Brien KS, Callahan EK, Bailey RL, West SK, Goodhew EB, Martin DL, Arnold BF, Porco TC, Lietman TM, Keenan JD. Effect of Biannual Mass Azithromycin Distributions to Preschool-Aged Children on Trachoma Prevalence in Niger: A Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA Netw Open 2022; 5:e2228244. [PMID: 35997979 PMCID: PMC9399865 DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.28244] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Because transmission of ocular strains of Chlamydia trachomatis is greatest among preschool-aged children, limiting azithromycin distributions to this age group may conserve resources and result in less antimicrobial resistance, which is a potential advantage in areas with hypoendemic trachoma and limited resources. OBJECTIVE To determine the efficacy of mass azithromycin distributions to preschool-aged children as a strategy for trachoma elimination in areas with hypoendemic disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In this cluster randomized clinical trial performed from November 23, 2014, until July 31, 2017, thirty rural communities in Niger were randomized at a 1:1 ratio to biannual mass distributions of either azithromycin or placebo to children aged 1 to 59 months. Participants and study personnel were masked to treatment allocation. Data analyses for trachoma outcomes were performed from October 19, 2021, through June 10, 2022. INTERVENTIONS Every 6 months, a single dose of either oral azithromycin (20 mg/kg using height-based approximation for children who could stand or weight calculation for small children) or oral placebo was provided to all children aged 1 to 59 months. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Trachoma was a prespecified outcome of the trial, assessed as the community-level prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular and trachomatous inflammation-intense through masked grading of conjunctival photographs from a random sample of 40 children per community each year during the 2-year study period. A secondary outcome was the seroprevalence of antibodies to C trachomatis antigens. RESULTS At baseline, 4726 children in 30 communities were included; 1695 children were enrolled in 15 azithromycin communities and 3031 children were enrolled in 15 placebo communities (mean [SD] proportions of boys, 51.8% [4.7%] vs 52.0% [4.2%]; mean [SD] age, 30.8 [2.8] vs 30.6 [2.6] months). The mean coverage of study drug for the 4 treatments was 79% (95% CI, 75%-83%) in the azithromycin group and 82% (95% CI, 79%-85%) in the placebo group. The mean prevalence of trachomatous inflammation-follicular at baseline was 1.9% (95% CI, 0.5%-3.5%) in the azithromycin group and 0.9% (95% CI, 0-1.9%) in the placebo group. At 24 months, trachomatous inflammation-follicular prevalence was 0.2% (95% CI, 0-0.5%) in the azithromycin group and 0.8% (95% CI, 0.2%-1.6%) in the placebo group (incidence rate ratio adjusted for baseline: 0.18 [95% CI, 0.01-1.20]; permutation P = .07). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The findings of this trial do not show that biannual mass azithromycin distributions to preschool-aged children were more effective than placebo, although the underlying prevalence of trachoma was low. The sustained absence of trachoma even in the placebo group suggests that trachoma may have been eliminated as a public health problem in this part of Niger. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02048007.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ahmed M. Arzika
- The Carter Center, Niamey, Niger
- Centre de Recherche et Interventions en Santé Publique, Birni N’Gaoure, Niger
| | | | - Amza Abdou
- Programme Nationale de Santé Oculaire, Niamey, Niger
| | | | | | - Ramatou Maliki
- The Carter Center, Niamey, Niger
- Centre de Recherche et Interventions en Santé Publique, Birni N’Gaoure, Niger
| | - Amer F. Alsoudi
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco
| | - Tianyi Zhang
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco
| | - Sun Y. Cotter
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco
| | - Elodie Lebas
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco
| | - Kieran S. O’Brien
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco
| | | | - Robin L. Bailey
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Sheila K. West
- Dana Center for Preventive Ophthalmology, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - E. Brook Goodhew
- Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Diana L. Martin
- Division of Parasitic Diseases and Malaria, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia
| | - Benjamin F. Arnold
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco
| | - Travis C. Porco
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco
| | - Thomas M. Lietman
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco
- Institute for Global Health Sciences, University of California, San Francisco
| | - Jeremy D. Keenan
- Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco
- Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco
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Aiemjoy K, Seidman JC, Saha S, Munira SJ, Islam Sajib MS, Sium SMA, Sarkar A, Alam N, Zahan FN, Kabir MS, Tamrakar D, Vaidya K, Shrestha R, Shakya J, Katuwal N, Shrestha S, Yousafzai MT, Iqbal J, Dehraj IF, Ladak Y, Maria N, Adnan M, Pervaiz S, Carter AS, Longley AT, Fraser C, Ryan ET, Nodoushani A, Fasano A, Leonard MM, Kenyon V, Bogoch II, Jeon HJ, Haselbeck A, Park SE, Zellweger RM, Marks F, Owusu-Dabo E, Adu-Sarkodie Y, Owusu M, Teunis P, Luby SP, Garrett DO, Qamar FN, Saha SK, Charles RC, Andrews JR. Estimating typhoid incidence from community-based serosurveys: a multicohort study. THE LANCET. MICROBE 2022; 3:e578-e587. [PMID: 35750069 PMCID: PMC9329131 DOI: 10.1016/s2666-5247(22)00114-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/08/2021] [Revised: 04/04/2022] [Accepted: 04/08/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The incidence of enteric fever, an invasive bacterial infection caused by typhoidal Salmonellae (Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi), is largely unknown in regions without blood culture surveillance. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether new diagnostic serological markers for typhoidal Salmonella can reliably estimate population-level incidence. METHODS We collected longitudinal blood samples from patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever enrolled from surveillance studies in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Ghana between 2016 and 2021 and conducted cross-sectional serosurveys in the catchment areas of each surveillance site. We used ELISAs to measure quantitative IgA and IgG antibody responses to hemolysin E and S Typhi lipopolysaccharide. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to fit two-phase power-function decay models to the longitudinal antibody responses among enteric fever cases and used the joint distributions of the peak antibody titres and decay rate to estimate population-level incidence rates from cross-sectional serosurveys. FINDINGS The longitudinal antibody kinetics for all antigen-isotypes were similar across countries and did not vary by clinical severity. The seroincidence of typhoidal Salmonella infection among children younger than 5 years ranged between 58·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 42·1-81·4) in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to 6·6 per 100 person-years (4·3-9·9) in Kavrepalanchok, Nepal, and followed the same rank order as clinical incidence estimates. INTERPRETATION The approach described here has the potential to expand the geographical scope of typhoidal Salmonella surveillance and generate incidence estimates that are comparable across geographical regions and time. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS For the Nepali, Bengali and Urdu translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kristen Aiemjoy
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA; Division of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California Davis School of Medicine, Davis, CA, USA.
| | | | - Senjuti Saha
- Child Health Research Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | | | - Syed Muktadir Al Sium
- Child Health Research Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh; Bangladesh Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Anik Sarkar
- Child Health Research Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Nusrat Alam
- Child Health Research Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | | | | | - Dipesh Tamrakar
- Dhulikhel Hospital, Kathmandu University Hospital, Dhulikhel, Nepal
| | - Krista Vaidya
- Dhulikhel Hospital, Kathmandu University Hospital, Dhulikhel, Nepal
| | - Rajeev Shrestha
- Dhulikhel Hospital, Kathmandu University Hospital, Dhulikhel, Nepal
| | - Jivan Shakya
- Dhulikhel Hospital, Kathmandu University Hospital, Dhulikhel, Nepal
| | - Nishan Katuwal
- Dhulikhel Hospital, Kathmandu University Hospital, Dhulikhel, Nepal
| | - Sony Shrestha
- Dhulikhel Hospital, Kathmandu University Hospital, Dhulikhel, Nepal
| | | | - Junaid Iqbal
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Irum Fatima Dehraj
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Yasmin Ladak
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Noshi Maria
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Mehreen Adnan
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Sadaf Pervaiz
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | | | - Ashley T Longley
- Global Immunization Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Clare Fraser
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Edward T Ryan
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ariana Nodoushani
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Alessio Fasano
- Center for Celiac Research and Treatment, MassGeneral Hospital for Children, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition, MassGeneral Hospital for Children, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Maureen M Leonard
- Center for Celiac Research and Treatment, MassGeneral Hospital for Children, Boston, MA, USA; Division of Pediatric Gastroenterology and Nutrition, MassGeneral Hospital for Children, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Victoria Kenyon
- Center for Celiac Research and Treatment, MassGeneral Hospital for Children, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Isaac I Bogoch
- Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Hyon Jin Jeon
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, South Korea; Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, UK
| | | | - Se Eun Park
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Florian Marks
- International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, South Korea; Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease, University of Cambridge School of Clinical Medicine, Cambridge Biomedical Campus, Cambridge, UK; Department of Microbiology and Parasitology, University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Ellis Owusu-Dabo
- School of Medical Sciences, Kwame Nkrumah University for Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Yaw Adu-Sarkodie
- School of Medical Sciences, Kwame Nkrumah University for Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Michael Owusu
- School of Medical Sciences, Kwame Nkrumah University for Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Peter Teunis
- Center for Global Safe Water, Sanitation and Hygiene, Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Stephen P Luby
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
| | | | - Farah Naz Qamar
- Department of Paediatrics and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan
| | - Samir K Saha
- Child Health Research Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Richelle C Charles
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; Harvard Medical School, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jason R Andrews
- Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA, USA
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