Evaluation of the effectiveness of the California mosquito-borne virus surveillance & response plan, 2009–2018

Exploring the role of temperature and other environmental factors in West Nile virus incidence and prediction in California counties from 2017-2022 using a zero-inflated model

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common mosquito-borne disease in the United States, resulting in hundreds of reported cases yearly in California alone. The transmission cycle occurs mostly in birds and mosquitoes, making meteorological conditions, such as temperature, especially important to transmission characteristics. Given that future increases in temperature are all but inevitable due to worldwide climate change, determining associations between temperature and WNV incidence in humans, as well as making predictions on future cases, are important to public health agencies in California. Using surveillance data from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH), meteorological data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and vector and host data from VectorSurv, we created GEE autoregressive and zero-inflated regression models to determine the role of temperature and other environmental factors in WNV incidence and predictions. An increase in temperature was found to be associated with an increase in incidence in 11 high-burden Californian counties between 2017-2022 (IRR = 1.06), holding location, time of year, and rainfall constant. A hypothetical increase of two degrees Fahrenheit-predicted for California by 2040-would have resulted in upwards of 20 excess cases per year during our study period. Using 2017-2021 as a training set, meteorological and host/vector data were able to closely predict 2022 incidence, though the models did overestimate the peak number of cases. The zero-inflated model closely predicted the low number of cases in winter months but performed worse than the GEE model during high-transmission periods. These findings suggests that climate change will, and may be already, altering transmission dynamics and incidence of WNV in California, and provides tools to help predict incidence into the future.

Long-term trends and spatial patterns of West Nile Virus emergence in California, 2004-2021

AIMS

West Nile Virus (WNV) has remained a persistent source of vector-borne disease risk in California since first being identified in the state in 2003. The geographic distribution of WNV activity is relatively widespread, but varies considerably across different regions within the state. Spatial variation in human WNV infection depends upon social-ecological factors that influence mosquito populations and virus transmission dynamics. Measuring changes in spatial patterns over time is necessary for uncovering the underlying regional drivers of disease risk.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In this study, we utilized statewide surveillance data to quantify temporal changes and spatial patterns of WNV activity in California. We obtained annual WNV mosquito surveillance data from 2004 through 2021 from the California Arbovirus Surveillance Program. Geographic coordinates for mosquito pools were analysed using a suite of spatial statistics to identify and classify patterns in WNV activity over time.

CONCLUSIONS

We detected clear patterns of non-random WNV risk during the study period, including emerging hot spots in the Central Valley and non-random periods of oscillating WNV risk in Southern and Northern California subregions. Our findings offer new insights into 18 years of spatio-temporal variation in WNV activity across California, which may be used for targeted surveillance efforts and public health interventions.

Epidemic versus endemic West Nile virus dead bird surveillance in California: Changes in sensitivity and focus

Since 2003, the California West Nile virus (WNV) dead bird surveillance program (DBSP) has monitored publicly reported dead birds for WNV surveillance and response. In the current paper, we compared DBSP data from early epidemic years (2004-2006) with recent endemic years (2018-2020), with a focus on specimen collection criteria, county report incidence, bird species selection, WNV prevalence in dead birds, and utility of the DBSP as an early environmental indicator of WNV. Although fewer agencies collected dead birds in recent years, most vector control agencies with consistent WNV activity continued to use dead birds as a surveillance tool, with streamlined operations enhancing efficiency. The number of dead bird reports was approximately ten times greater during 2004-2006 compared to 2018-2020, with reports from the Central Valley and portions of Southern California decreasing substantially in recent years; reports from the San Francisco Bay Area decreased less dramatically. Seven of ten counties with high numbers of dead bird reports were also high human WNV case burden areas. Dead corvid, sparrow, and quail reports decreased the most compared to other bird species reports. West Nile virus positive dead birds were the most frequent first indicators of WNV activity by county in 2004-2006, followed by positive mosquitoes; in contrast, during 2018-2020 mosquitoes were the most frequent first indicators followed by dead birds, and initial environmental WNV detections occurred later in the season during 2018-2020. Evidence for WNV impacts on avian populations and susceptibility are discussed. Although patterns of dead bird reports and WNV prevalence in tested dead birds have changed, dead birds have endured as a useful element within our multi-faceted WNV surveillance program.