Universality, limits and predictability of gold-medal performances at the olympic games

Quantifying hierarchy and prestige in US ballet academies as social predictors of career success

In the recent decade, we have seen major progress in quantifying the behaviors and the impact of scientists, resulting in a quantitative toolset capable of monitoring and predicting the career patterns of the profession. It is unclear, however, if this toolset applies to other creative domains beyond the sciences. In particular, while performance in the arts has long been difficult to quantify objectively, research suggests that professional networks and prestige of affiliations play a similar role to those observed in science, hence they can reveal patterns underlying successful careers. To test this hypothesis, here we focus on ballet, as it allows us to investigate in a quantitative fashion the interplay of individual performance, institutional prestige, and network effects. We analyze data on competition outcomes from 6363 ballet students affiliated with 1603 schools in the United States, who participated in the Youth America Grand Prix (YAGP) between 2000 and 2021. Through multiple logit models and matching experiments, we provide evidence that schools' strategic network position bridging between communities captures social prestige and predicts the placement of students into jobs in ballet companies. This work reveals the importance of institutional prestige on career success in ballet and showcases the potential of network science approaches to provide quantitative viewpoints for the professional development of careers beyond science.

Performance of high-level Spanish athletes in the Olympic Games according to gender

No studies have been found that analyzed the probabilities of high-level athletes according to gender for accessing programs that promote the professionalization of sports, and participation and success in the OG in Spain. This could explain the gender differences in these parameters and the trend towards more egalitarian data in recent years. The objective of this study was to analyze the probabilities of Spanish high-level athletes for participating and achieving sporting success in the 2008, 2012 and 2016 Olympic Games (OG). Data relating to a sample of 3757 high-level Spanish athletes (2398 men and 1359 women) between 2005 and 2016 were examined. The variables of gender, having obtained a scholarship from the Association of Olympic Athletes (ADO) program, training in a High Performance Center (CAR), participation and performance in the OG were analyzed. It was found that high-level female athletes were more likely than male athletes to belong to the ADO program (χ2 = 26,151; r* = 0.083; p = 0,000) and CAR (χ2 = 13,847; r* = 0.061; p = 0,000), and to qualify for an OG (χ2 = 22,838; r* = 0,078; p = 0,000), the same trend was found in the three Olympic cycles analyzed. With respect to the results in the OG, in general, no differences were found according to gender, although women were more likely to be finalists (χ2 = 4,406; r* = 0.071; p = 0,036), and more prominently in the 2016 OG (16.118; r* = 0.228; p = 0.000). The same applies to winning a medal (χ2 = 5.939; r* = 0.145; p = 0.015), more specifically bronze at the 2012 OG (χ2 = 6.215; r* = 0.149; p = 0.013). In conclusion, high-level female athletes in Spain have a higher percentage of access to high-level athlete support programs such as ADO and CAR, as well as participation in OG.

Identification of skill in an online game: The case of Fantasy Premier League

In all competitions where results are based upon an individual's performance the question of whether the outcome is a consequence of skill or luck arises. We explore this question through an analysis of a large dataset of approximately one million contestants playing Fantasy Premier League, an online fantasy sport where managers choose players from the English football (soccer) league. We show that managers' ranks over multiple seasons are correlated and we analyse the actions taken by managers to increase their likelihood of success. The prime factors in determining a manager's success are found to be long-term planning and consistently good decision-making in the face of the noisy contests upon which this game is based. Similarities between managers' decisions over time that result in the emergence of 'template' teams, suggesting a form of herding dynamics taking place within the game, are also observed. Taken together, these findings indicate common strategic considerations and consensus among successful managers on crucial decision points over an extended temporal period.

Individual performance and leader's laterality in interactive contests

Left-handedness is known to provide an intrinsic and tactical advantage at top level in many sports involving interactive contests. Again, most of the renowned leaders of the world are known to have been left-handed. Leadership plays an important role in politics, sports and mentorship. In this paper we show that Cricket captains who bat left-handed have a strategic advantage over the right-handed captains in One Day International (ODI) and Test matches. The present study involving 46 left-handed captains and 148 right-handed captains in ODI matches, reveal a strong relation between leader's laterality and team member performance, demonstrating the critical importance of left-handedness and successful leadership. The odds for superior batting performance in an ODI match under left-handed captains are 89% higher than the odds under right-handed captains. Our study shows that left-handed captains are more successful in extracting superior performance from the batsmen and bowlers in ODI and Test matches; perhaps indicating left-handed leaders are better motivators as leaders when compared to right-handed captains.

The Advantage of Playing Home in NBA: Microscopic, Team-Specific and Evolving Features

The idea that the success rate of a team increases when playing home is broadly accepted and documented for a wide variety of sports. Investigations on the so-called “home advantage phenomenon” date back to the 70’s and ever since has attracted the attention of scholars and sport enthusiasts. These studies have been mainly focused on identifying the phenomenon and trying to correlate it with external factors such as crowd noise and referee bias. Much less is known about the effects of home advantage in the “microscopic” dynamics of the game (within the game) or possible team-specific and evolving features of this phenomenon. Here we present a detailed study of these previous features in the National Basketball Association (NBA). By analyzing play-by-play events of more than sixteen thousand games that span thirteen NBA seasons, we have found that home advantage affects the microscopic dynamics of the game by increasing the scoring rates and decreasing the time intervals between scores of teams playing home. We verified that these two features are different among the NBA teams, for instance, the scoring rate of the Cleveland Cavaliers team is increased ≈0.16 points per minute (on average the seasons 2004–05 to 2013–14) when playing home, whereas for the New Jersey Nets (now the Brooklyn Nets) this rate increases in only ≈0.04 points per minute. We further observed that these microscopic features have evolved over time in a non-trivial manner when analyzing the results team-by-team. However, after averaging over all teams some regularities emerge; in particular, we noticed that the average differences in the scoring rates and in the characteristic times (related to the time intervals between scores) have slightly decreased over time, suggesting a weakening of the phenomenon. This study thus adds evidence of the home advantage phenomenon and contributes to a deeper understanding of this effect over the course of games.

Safe leads and lead changes in competitive team sports

We investigate the time evolution of lead changes within individual games of competitive team sports. Exploiting ideas from the theory of random walks, the number of lead changes within a single game follows a Gaussian distribution. We show that the probability that the last lead change and the time of the largest lead size are governed by the same arcsine law, a bimodal distribution that diverges at the start and at the end of the game. We also determine the probability that a given lead is "safe" as a function of its size L and game time t. Our predictions generally agree with comprehensive data on more than 1.25 million scoring events in roughly 40,000 games across four professional or semiprofessional team sports, and are more accurate than popular heuristics currently used in sports analytics.

Universal statistics of the knockout tournament

We study statistics of the knockout tournament, where only the winner of a fixture progresses to the next. We assign a real number called competitiveness to each contestant and find that the resulting distribution of prize money follows a power law with an exponent close to unity if the competitiveness is a stable quantity and a decisive factor to win a match. Otherwise, the distribution is found narrow. The existing observation of power law distributions in various kinds of real sports tournaments therefore suggests that the rules of those games are constructed in such a way that it is possible to understand the games in terms of the contestants' inherent characteristics of competitiveness.

Self-organization of progress across the century of physics

We make use of information provided in the titles and abstracts of over half a million publications that were published by the American Physical Society during the past 119 years. By identifying all unique words and phrases and determining their monthly usage patterns, we obtain quantifiable insights into the trends of physics discovery from the end of the 19th century to today. We show that the magnitudes of upward and downward trends yield heavy-tailed distributions, and that their emergence is due to the Matthew effect. This indicates that both the rise and fall of scientific paradigms is driven by robust principles of self-organization. Data also confirm that periods of war decelerate scientific progress, and that the later is very much subject to globalisation.

Is coaching experience associated with effective use of timeouts in basketball?

Experience is an important asset in almost any professional activity. In basketball, there is believed to be a positive association between coaching experience and effective use of team timeouts. Here, we analyze both the extent to which a team's change in scoring margin per possession after timeouts deviate from the team's average scoring margin per possession-what we called timeout factor, and the extent to which this performance measure is associated with coaching experience across all teams in the National Basketball Association over the 2009-2012 seasons. We find that timeout factor plays a minor role in the scoring dynamics of basketball. Surprisingly, we find that timeout factor is negatively associated with coaching experience. Our findings support empirical studies showing that, under certain conditions, mentors early in their careers can have a stronger positive impact on their teams than later in their careers.