Statistical properties of parasite density estimators in malaria

Variability in white blood cell count during uncomplicated malaria and implications for parasite density estimation: a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that when peripheral malarial parasitaemia is quantified by thick film microscopy, an actual white blood cell (WBC) count from a concurrently collected blood sample is used in calculations. However, in resource-limited settings an assumed WBC count is often used instead. The aim of this study was to describe the variability in WBC count during acute uncomplicated malaria, and estimate the impact of using an assumed value of WBC on estimates of parasite density and clearance.

METHODS

Uncomplicated malaria drug efficacy studies that measured WBC count were selected from the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network data repository for an individual patient data meta-analysis of WBC counts. Regression models with random intercepts for study-site were used to assess WBC count variability at presentation and during follow-up. Inflation factors for parasitaemia density, and clearance estimates were calculated for methods using assumed WBC counts (8000 cells/µL and age-stratified values) using estimates derived from the measured WBC value as reference.

RESULTS

Eighty-four studies enrolling 27,656 patients with clinically uncomplicated malaria were included. Geometric mean WBC counts (× 1000 cells/µL) in age groups < 1, 1-4, 5-14 and ≥ 15 years were 10.5, 8.3, 7.1, 5.7 and 7.5, 7.0, 6.5, 6.0 for individuals with falciparum (n = 24,978) and vivax (n = 2678) malaria, respectively. At presentation, higher WBC counts were seen among patients with higher parasitaemia, severe anaemia and, for individuals with vivax malaria, in regions with shorter regional relapse periodicity. Among falciparum malaria patients, using an assumed WBC count of 8000 cells/µL resulted in parasite density underestimation by a median (IQR) of 26% (4-41%) in infants < 1 year old but an overestimation by 50% (16-91%) in adults aged ≥ 15 years. Use of age-stratified assumed WBC values removed systematic bias but did not improve precision of parasitaemia estimation. Imprecision of parasite clearance estimates was only affected by the within-patient WBC variability over time, and remained < 10% for 79% of patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Using an assumed WBC value for parasite density estimation from a thick smear may lead to underdiagnosis of hyperparasitaemia and could adversely affect clinical management; but does not result in clinically consequential inaccuracies in the estimation of the prevalence of prolonged parasite clearance and artemisinin resistance.

Towards malaria control in Nigeria: implications of the malaria parasite rate and spleen rate among children living in a rural community in southwest Nigeria

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization prioritizes malaria surveillance for accurate tracking of progress of intervention programmes. The malaria parasite rate (PR) and spleen rate (SR) are economical surveillance tools. There has been a global decline in the burden of malaria over the last decade, but most African countries, like Nigeria, have a slow rate of decline. There is a need for adequate malaria surveillance to guide malaria control strategies and policymaking.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 363 children ages 1-15 y in rural southwest Nigeria. The participants' PR was determined by microscopy and the SR was determined by palpation and ultrasonography. The associations between PR and SR and other covariates were assessed.

RESULTS

The PR was 26.7% and the SR was 12.9%. There was no significant association between PR or SR across age groups, but low social class was significantly associated with PR (55 [33.5%], p=0.004) and SR (29 [17.3%], p=0.013). The odds of having splenomegaly doubled with malaria parasitaemia (odds ratio 2.03 [95% confidence interval 1.06 to 3.88).

CONCLUSIONS

The PR and SR suggest that the study area is meso-endemic. The PR in the study area was almost equal across age groups; our findings suggest there may be a need for policy review to plan malaria intervention programmes and include older children, not just children <5 y of age. Routine malaria surveillance using simple tools such as the PR and SR are necessary for reviewing malaria control programmes in the community.

A timed tally counter for microscopic examination of thick blood smears in malaria studies

Background

Despite many technological advances for malaria parasite detection (e.g. high resolution image acquisition), microscopic reading of thick blood smear (TBS) remains the gold standard. Even though available in low technology environment, the microscopy of TBS is slow and time consuming. Moreover microscopy may induce errors at many levels and has no quality control.

Methods

A electronic extension of the mechanical tally counter is proposed. In addition to the counting process it includes the process of counting itself that relies on the time elapsed between two successive pressures of the counting button leading to a timed tally counter (TTC). The microscopist performs the reading with the specific instruction starting by counting, in each high power fields, leucocytes first and then parasites. The time-stamp of all pressures of counting buttons are recorded along with the nature of the count. The data are recorded internally in CSV format and are exportable. The detection of HPFs locations and leukocyte/parasite counts per HPFs is performed through a hidden semi-Markov model (with outliers) allowing both to take into account the known distribution of leukocyte per HPFs (using a negative binomial distribution) and the pauses and hesitation of the microscopist during the reading. Parameters are estimated via the expectation-maximization algorithm. Hyper-parameters are calibrated using expert annotations. Forward/backward recursions are used to obtain the HPFs locations.

Results

This approach provides richer data at no extra cost. It has been demonstrated that the method can derive parasites per HPF, leukocytes per HPF, and parasite/leukocyte ratio with robust non-parametric confidence intervals. Moreover a direct digital data entry leads to a less expensive process and decreased time-consuming and error-prone manual data entry. Lastly the TTC allows detecting possible protocol break during reading and prevents the risk of fraud.

Discussion and conclusion

Introducing a programmed digital device in the data acquisition of TBS reading gives the opportunity to develop easily new (possible adaptive) reading protocols that will be easily followed by the reader since they will be embedded directly in the device. With the TTC the reader only has to read HPFs, counting leukocytes first and parasites second, and the counter will beep when the protocol is completed.

Acute Febrile Illness Among Children in Butajira, South-Central Ethiopia During the Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa Program

Background

Clearly differentiating causes of fever is challenging where diagnostic capacities are limited, resulting in poor patient management. We investigated acute febrile illness in children aged ≤15 years enrolled at healthcare facilities in Butajira, Ethiopia, during January 2012 to January 2014 for the Typhoid Fever Surveillance in Africa Program.

Methods

Blood culture, malaria microscopy, and blood analyses followed by microbiological, biochemical, and antimicrobial susceptibility testing of isolates were performed. We applied a retrospectively developed scheme to classify children as malaria or acute respiratory, gastrointestinal or urinary tract infection, or other febrile infections and syndromes. Incidence rates per 100 000 population derived from the classification scheme and multivariate logistic regression to determine fever predictors were performed.

Results

We rarely observed stunting (4/513, 0.8%), underweight (1/513, 0.2%), wasting (1/513, 0.2%), and hospitalization (21/513, 4.1%) among 513 children with mild transient fever and a mean disease severity score of 12 (95% confidence interval [CI], 11–13). Blood cultures yielded 1.6% (8/513) growth of pathogenic agents; microscopy detected 13.5% (69/513) malaria with 20 611/µL blood (95% CI, 15 352–25 870) mean parasite density. Incidences were generally higher in children aged ≤5 years than >5 to ≤15 years; annual incidences in young children were 301.3 (95% CI, 269.2–337.2) for malaria and 1860.1 (95% CI, 1778.0–1946.0) for acute respiratory and 379.9 (95% CI, 343.6–420.0) for gastrointestinal tract infections.

Conclusions

We could not detect the etiological agents in all febrile children. Our findings may prompt further investigations and the reconsideration of policies and frameworks for the management of acute febrile illness.

Malaria parasite density estimated with white blood cells count reference value agrees with density estimated with absolute in children less than 5 years in central ghana

Introduction. The estimation of malaria parasite density using a microscope heavily relies on White Blood Cells (WBCs) counts. An assumed WBCs count of 8000/µL has been accepted as reasonably accurate in estimating malaria parasite densities due to the challenge to accurately determine WBCs count. Method. The study used 4944 pieces of laboratory data of consented participants of age group less than 5 years. The study compared parasite densities of absolute WBCs, assumed WBCs, and the WBCs reference values in Central Ghana. Ethical approvals were given by three ethics committees. Results. The mean (±SD) WBCs and geometric mean parasite density (GMPD) were 10500/µL (±4.1) and 10644/µL (95% CI 9986/µL to 11346/µL), respectively. The difference in the GMPD compared using absolute WBCs and densities of assumed WBCs was significantly lower. The difference in GMPD obtained with an assumed WBCs count and that of the WBCs reference values for the study area, 10400/µL and 9200/µL for children in different age groups, were not significant. Discussion. Significant errors could result when assumed WBCs count is used to estimate malaria parasite density in children. GMPD generated with WBCs reference values statistically agreed with density from the absolute WBCs. When obtaining absolute WBC is not possible, the reference value can be used to estimate parasite density.

Evidence for overdispersion in the distribution of malaria parasites and leukocytes in thick blood smears

Background

Microscopic examination of stained thick blood smears (TBS) is the gold standard for routine malaria diagnosis. Parasites and leukocytes are counted in a predetermined number of high power fields (HPFs). Data on parasite and leukocyte counts per HPF are of broad scientific value. However, in published studies, most of the information on parasite density (PD) is presented as summary statistics (e.g. PD per microlitre, prevalence, absolute/assumed white blood cell counts), but original data sets are not readily available. Besides, the number of parasites and the number of leukocytes per HPF are assumed to be Poisson-distributed. However, count data rarely fit the restrictive assumptions of the Poisson distribution. The violation of these assumptions commonly results in overdispersion. The objectives of this paper are to investigate and handle overdispersion in field-collected data.

Methods

The data comprise the records of three TBSs of 12-month-old children from a field study of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Tori Bossito, Benin. All HPFs were examined systemically by visually scanning the film horizontally from edge to edge. The numbers of parasites and leukocytes per HPF were recorded and formed the first dataset on parasite and leukocyte counts per HPF. The full dataset is published in this study. Two sources of overdispersion in data are investigated: latent heterogeneity and spatial dependence. Unobserved heterogeneity in data is accounted for by considering more flexible models that allow for overdispersion. Of particular interest were the negative binomial model (NB) and mixture models. The dependent structure in data was modelled with hidden Markov models (HMMs).

Results

The Poisson assumptions are inconsistent with parasite and leukocyte distributions per HPF. Among simple parametric models, the NB model is the closest to the unknown distribution that generates the data. On the basis of model selection criteria AIC and BIC, HMMs provided a better fit to data than mixtures. Ordinary pseudo-residuals confirmed the validity of HMMs.

Conclusion

Failure to take overdispersion into account in parasite and leukocyte counts may entail important misleading inferences when these data are related to other explanatory variables (malariometric or environmental). Its detection is therefore essential. In addition, an alternative PD estimation method that accounts for heterogeneity and spatial dependence should be seriously considered in epidemiological studies with field-collected parasite and leukocyte data.