Regional assessment of urban impacts on landcover and open space finds a smart urban growth policy performs little better than business as usual

Will there be water? Climate change, housing needs, and future water demand in California

Climate change in California is expected to alter future water availability, impacting water supplies needed to support future housing growth and agriculture demand. In groundwater-dependent regions like California's Central Coast, new land-use related water demand and decreasing recharge is already stressing depleted groundwater basins. We developed a spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation model that integrates climate, land-use change, water demand, and groundwater gain-loss to examine the impact of future climate and land use change on groundwater balance and water demand in five counties along the Central Coast from 2010 to 2060. The model incorporated downscaled groundwater recharge projections based on a Warm/Wet and a Hot/Dry climate future from a spatially explicit hydrological process-based model. Two urbanization projections from a parcel-based, regional urban growth model representing 1) recent historical and 2) state-mandated housing growth projections were used as alternative spatial targets for future urban growth. Agricultural projections were based on recent historical trends from remote sensing data. Annual projected changes in groundwater balance were calculated as the difference between land-use related water demand, based on historical estimates, and climate-driven recharge plus agriculture return flows. Results indicate that future changes in climate-driven groundwater recharge, coupled with cumulative increases in agricultural water demand, result in overall declines in future groundwater balance, with a Hot/Dry future resulting in cumulative groundwater decline in all but Santa Cruz County. Cumulative declines by 2060 are especially prominent in San Luis Obispo (-2.9 to -5.1 Bm3) and Monterey counties (-6.5 to -8.7 Bm3), despite limited changes in agricultural water demand over the model period. These two counties show declining groundwater reserves in a Warm/Wet future as well, while San Benito and Santa Barbara County barely reach equilibrium. These results suggest future groundwater supplies may not be able to keep pace with regional demand and declining climate-driven recharge, resulting in a potential reduction in water security in the region. However, our county-scale projections showed new housing and associated water demand does not conflict with California's groundwater sustainability goals. Rather, future climate coupled with increasing agricultural groundwater demand may reduce water security in some counties, potentially limiting available groundwater supplies for new housing.

Optimizing the Production-Living-Ecological Space for Reducing the Ecosystem Services Deficit

With rapid urbanization and industrialization, China’s metropolises have undergone a huge shift in land use, which has had a profound impact on the ecological environment. Accordingly, the contradictions between regional production, living, and ecological spaces have intensified. The study of the optimization of production-living-ecological space (PLES) is crucial for the sustainable use of land resources and regional socio-economic development. However, research on the optimization of land patterns based on PLES is still being explored, and a unified technical framework for integrated optimization has yet to be developed. Ecosystem services (ES), as a bridge between people and nature, provide a vehicle for the interlinking of elements of the human-land system coupling. The integration of ES supply and demand into ecosystem assessments can enhance the policy relevance and practical application of the ES concept in land management and is also conducive to achieving ecological security and safeguarding human well-being. In this study, an integrated framework comprising four core steps was developed to optimize the PLES in such a way that all ecosystem services are in surplus as far as possible. It was also applied to a case study in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin. A regression analysis between ES and PLES was used to derive equilibrium thresholds for the supply and demand of ES. The ternary phase diagram method was used to determine the direction and magnitude of the optimization of the PLES, and finally, the corresponding optimization recommendations were made at different scales.

The push and pull of land use policy: reconstructing 150 years of development and conservation land acquisition

The growth of human populations and their resource needs have stressed the conservation of natural land resources. Many policies and programs have been implemented to address the pressures on land resources and notwithstanding this pressure, significant acquisition of land for conservation has occurred throughout history in the U.S., and internationally. Here we assess the on-the-ground result of the evolution of land use policies in California as a pioneer forerunner, in the form of acquisition of land for conservation (i.e. Open Space), and its impact on the rest of the U.S. and beyond. To this end we describe the timeline and spatial representation of the growth of California’s conservation network over the last 150 years, and link it to the history of land use policies. We then assess whether conservation land acquisition has consistently grown through time or occurred in specific decades. About ¼ of the state is now designated Open Space. Fewer and larger areas conserved and acquired at the beginning of the 20^th century; the conservation network was complemented with a larger number of smaller sized properties. Despite acquisition of land in every decade, the process was uneven (E = 0.3 for California, E = 0.14±0.08 average for the state’s counties), mostly due to the large acquisitions and land set asides in the 1900s, followed by 1930s and 1940s. This process was a result of a comprehensive set of legislation that evolved through time, and resulted from the competing needs for development and conservation. Even with the impressive 174,000 km² of public lands in California, the future of California’s natural infrastructure and natural heritage cannot rely solely on these public lands, nor public agencies and their resources. Critically a future course of land preservation relying on the purchase of new lands – in California and beyond – for conservation is tremendously expensive.