Spatio-temporal environmental correlation and population variability in simple metacommunities

Spatial autocorrelation of local patch extinctions drives recovery dynamics in metacommunities

Human activities put ecosystems under increasing pressure, often resulting in local extinctions. However, it is unclear how local extinctions affect regional processes, such as the distribution of diversity in space, especially if extinctions show spatial patterns, such as being clustered. Therefore, it is crucial to investigate extinctions and their consequences in a spatially explicit framework. Using highly controlled microcosm experiments and theoretical models, we ask here how the number and spatial autocorrelation of extinctions interactively affect metacommunity dynamics. We found that local patch extinctions increased local diversity (α-diversity) and inter-patch diversity (β-diversity) by delaying the exclusion of inferior competitors. Importantly, recolonization dynamics depended more strongly on the spatial distribution than on the number of patch extinctions: clustered local patch extinctions resulted in slower recovery, lower α-diversity and higher β-diversity. Our results highlight that the spatial distribution of perturbations should be taken into account when studying and managing spatially structured communities.

Spatial disease dynamics of free-living pathogens under pathogen predation

The epidemiological dynamics of potentially free-living pathogens are often studied with respect to a specific pathogen species (e.g., cholera) and most studies concentrate only on host-pathogen interactions. Here we show that metacommunity-level interactions can alter conventional spatial disease dynamics. We introduce a pathogen eating consumer species and investigate a deterministic epidemiological model of two habitat patches, where both patches can be occupied by hosts, pathogens, and consumers of free-living pathogens. An isolated habitat patch shows periodic disease outbreaks in the host population, arising from cyclic consumer-pathogen dynamics. On the other hand, consumer dispersal between the patches generate asymmetric disease prevalence, such that the host population in one patch stays disease-free, while disease outbreaks occur in the other patch. Such asymmetry can also arise with host dispersal, where infected hosts carry pathogens to the other patch. This indirect movement of pathogens causes also a counter-intuitive effect: decreasing morbidity in a focal patch under increasing pathogen immigration. Our results underline that community-level interactions influence disease dynamics and consistent spatial asymmetry can arise also in spatially homogeneous systems.

Biodiversity and ecosystem stability across scales in metacommunities

Although diversity-stability relationships have been extensively studied in local ecosystems, the global biodiversity crisis calls for an improved understanding of these relationships in a spatial context. Here, we use a dynamical model of competitive metacommunities to study the relationships between species diversity and ecosystem variability across scales. We derive analytic relationships under a limiting case; these results are extended to more general cases with numerical simulations. Our model shows that, while alpha diversity decreases local ecosystem variability, beta diversity generally contributes to increasing spatial asynchrony among local ecosystems. Consequently, both alpha and beta diversity provide stabilising effects for regional ecosystems, through local and spatial insurance effects respectively. We further show that at the regional scale, the stabilising effect of biodiversity increases as spatial environmental correlation increases. Our findings have important implications for understanding the interactive effects of global environmental changes (e.g. environmental homogenisation) and biodiversity loss on ecosystem sustainability at large scales.

Dispersal, environmental forcing, and parasites combine to affect metapopulation synehrony and stability

Dispersal can have positive and negative effects on metapopulation stability and persistence. One prediction is that high levels of dispersal synchronize density fluctuations between subpopulations. However, little is still known about how biotic and abiotic factors combine to modify the effects of dispersal rate on synchrony and metapopulation dynamics. In a fully factorial experimental design, we investigated the combined effects of (1) dispersal, (2) parasite infection, and (3) synchrony in temperature fluctuations on subpopulation synchrony, metapopulation instability, and minimum population size, in laboratory metapopulations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum. Metapopulations, comprising two subpopulations linked by high or low levels of dispersal, were exposed to daily fluctuations in temperature between permissive (23 degrees C) and restrictive (5 degrees C) conditions. Infected metapopulations started the experiment with one subpopulation uninfected, while the other was infected at a prevalence of 5% with the bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. The temperature synchrony treatment involved subpopulations within a metapopulation following the same (synchronous temperatures) or different (asynchronous temperatures) temporal sequences. Population size was tracked over the 56-day experiment. We found that subpopulation density fluctuations were synchronized by high dispersal in infected metapopulations, and by synchronous temperatures in all metapopulations. Subpopulation synchrony was positively correlated with metapopulation instability and minimum metapopulation size, highlighting the multiple consequences of our treatments for metapopulation dynamics. Our results illustrate how parasites can generate dispersal-driven synchrony in non-cycling, declining populations. This "biotic forcing" via a natural enemy added to the temperature-dependent environmental forcing. We therefore conclude that predictions of metapopulation persistence in natural populations require simultaneous investigation of multiple ecological and epidemiological factors.

Temporal autocorrelation in host density increases establishment success of parasitoids in an experimental system

Environmental variation is classically expected to affect negatively population growth and to increase extinction risk, and it has been identified as a major determinant of establishment failures in the field. Yet, recent theoretical investigations have shown that the structure of environmental variation and more precisely the presence of positive temporal autocorrelation might alter this prediction. This is particularly likely to affect the establishment dynamics of biological control agents in the field, as host–parasitoid interactions are expected to induce temporal autocorrelation in host abundance. In the case where parasitoid populations display overcompensatory dynamics, the presence of such positive temporal autocorrelation should increase their establishment success in a variable environment. We tested this prediction in laboratory microcosms by introducing parasitoids to hosts whose abundances were manipulated to simulate uncorrelated or positively autocorrelated variations in carrying capacity. We found that environmental variability decreased population size and increased parasitoid population variance, which is classically expected to extinction risk. However, although exposed to significant environmental variation, we found that parasitoid populations experiencing positive temporal autocorrelation in host abundance were more likely to persist than populations exposed to uncorrelated variation. These results confirm that environmental variation is a key determinant of extinction dynamics that can have counterintuitive effects depending on its autocorrelation structure.