Child-Na score: a predictive model for survival in cirrhotic patients with symptomatic portal hypertension treated with TIPS

Applying the original model for end-stage liver disease score rather than the model for end-stage liver disease-Na score for risk stratification prior to transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures

OBJECTIVE

The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score can be used to predict survival of patients undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedures (TIPS). The effect of hyponatremia on survival resulted in the development of the MELD-Na score. The aim of this study is to compare the prognostic value of MELD and MELD-Na scores in predicting post-TIPS outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was performed on consecutive patients with cirrhosis who underwent TIPS placement from 2012 to 2017. Indications for TIPS were either refractory ascites or variceal bleeding. Primary outcomes analyzed were death or liver transplantation. Follow-up data were censored at 1 year.

RESULTS

Eighty-three patients underwent TIPS. There was no difference in MELD or MELD-Na score between indication groups. However, the delta MELD (MELD-Na subtracted by MELD score) was higher in those with refractory ascites. There was no difference in outcomes of death or liver transplantation between the MELD and MELD-Na at 1 year. (area under the curve 0.79 vs 0.72, respectively, P = 0.119). In patients with a MELD-Na greater than 18, higher delta MELD was protective (hazard ratio 0.74, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

There was no prognostic difference using either score despite a higher delta MELD in those with refractory ascites. The decision to pursue TIPS should utilize the original MELD score, as the MELD-Na score alone may exclude patients with refractory ascites who may benefit from TIPS.

MELD or Sodium MELD: A Comparison of the Ability of Two Scoring Systems to Predict Outcomes After Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Placement

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to compare the ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and sodium MELD (MELD-Na) scoring systems to predict outcomes after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Two hundred and nineteen consecutive patients who underwent TIPS placement were retrospectively reviewed. The primary outcomes were death within 30 days and 90 days after TIPS placement (30- and 90-day mortality, respectively), and secondary outcomes included death within 365 days after TIPS placement (365-day mortality), length of hospital stay, and readmission to the hospital within 30 days of TIPS placement. RESULTS. Mortality rates within 30, 90, and 365 days after TIPS placement were 2.3% (5/219), 8.2% (17/207), and 21.7% (41/189), respectively. Logistic regression showed that the MELD score predicted 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.13; 95% CI, 1.00-1.27; p = 0.04) and trended toward predicting 90-day mortality (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.00-1.18; p = 0.06), whereas the MELD-Na score did not predict 30-day mortality (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.97-1.06; p = 0.51) or 90-day mortality (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.98-1.15; p = 0.44). In a comparison of the ROC AUCs for MELD and MELD-Na, MELD showed improved prediction of 30-day mortality (p = 0.06) but did not significantly vary in prediction of 90- and 365-day mortality (p = 0.80 and p = 0.76, respectively). When the maximal inflection point for MELD and MELD-Na was analyzed on the basis of 90-day mortality, a score of 23 was found to be most significant for both MELD (OR, 6.6; 95% CI, 1.5-29.1; p = 0.01) and MELD-Na (OR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.1-9.6; p = 0.03). MELD and MELD-Na both accurately predicted the length of hospital stay after TIPS placement (p = 0.005 and p = 0.01, respectively). CONCLUSION. MELD is superior to MELD-Na for predicting 30-day and, perhaps, 90-day mortality after TIPS placement. At present, decisions regarding patient selection for TIPS placement should be made on the basis of the MELD score rather than the MELD-Na score.

Long-term clinical outcomes in patients with viral hepatitis related liver cirrhosis after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt treatment

Background

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure has played a vital role in management of portal hypertension. Thus, we aimed to investigate the natural history, long-term clinical outcome, predictors of survival in viral hepatitis related cirrhotic patients post-TIPS.

Method

A total of 704 patients with complete followed-up data were enrolled, and clinical characteristics of patients were collected and analyzed. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate survival, and comparisons were made by log rank test. A multivariate analysis of factors influencing survival was carried out using the Cox proportional hazards regression model.

Results

TIPS implatantion significantly decreased portal vein pressure with 9.77 cmH₂O reduction, without influencing long-term liver functions. The total incidence rate of major complication post-TIPS, including HE and re-bleeding/bleeding, was 37.9% and 15.5%, respectively. Patients in Child-Pugh C stage revealed higher overt hepatic encephalopathy (HE) occurrence (65.6%), while patients receiving covered, 6 mm in diameter stents indicated notably lower incidence of HE in comparison with other groups (6.4%). The median survival was > 60 months, 27.0 months, and 11.5 months in cirrhotic patients with variceal bleeding, refractory ascites, and both complications, respectively. The cumulative 5-year survival was significantly higher in patients with variceal bleeding (75.6%) in comparison with either that in patients with refractory ascites (12.5%) or that in patients with both complications (1.96%) (P < 0.0001). Covered stents usage, baseline model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, and baseline Child-Pugh classification were predictive of survival (P < 0.001). Other variables including age, male gender, and pre-TIPS PVP were not emerged as significant predictors (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

TIPS was an effective and safe therapeutic method for decompression of portal hypertension and for treatment of its complications. Careful selection of patients with minimal liver dysfunction for TIPS implantation was essential for better long-term outcomes.

Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt does not independently increase risk of death in high model for end stage liver disease patients

Physicians often exclude patients with a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score ≥ 18 from a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure due to the concern for higher risk of death. We aimed to determine if TIPS increased the risk of death in these patients. We analyzed the interaction between TIPS and MELD in 106 patients with TIPS and 79 with intractable ascites without TIPS. We performed Cox proportional hazard regression, including both TIPS and MELD as time-dependent covariates together with their interaction, to calculate the impact of TIPS on the risk of death associated with a high MELD score. We found a negative interaction between a high MELD score and a history of TIPS, with potentially important effect sizes. Patients with MELD scores ≥18 had a 51% lower incremental risk of death (lower risk than would be expected from the combined independent risks of MELD and needing/receiving TIPS) associated with TIPS than patients with MELD scores <18 (hazard ratio for TIPS, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.10-2.45) in the first 6 months following TIPS. There was an 80% lower incremental risk of death among patients with a MELD score ≥18 (hazard ratio for TIPS, 0.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.03-1.23) 6 months after the TIPS procedure. Conclusion: Risk of death is associated with underlying disease severity as shown by the MELD score and the need for TIPS, and both history of TIPS and high MELD score independently increased the risk of mortality. However, the risk of death after TIPS was progressively lower than expected as the MELD score increased. (Hepatology Communications 2017;1:460-468).

Transjugular Intrahepatic Porto-Systemic Shunt in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease ≥15

BACKGROUND

It is not known whether transjugular intrahepatic porto-systemic shunt (TIPS) is safe in patients with advanced liver cirrhosis. The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of TIPS on transplant-free survival in patients with liver cirrhosis and MELD score ≥15.

METHODS

All adult patients who underwent TIPS at our institution between 2004 and 2011 were identified (N = 470). A total of 144 patients had MELD ≥15 at the time of TIPS. These patients were matched 1:1 to patients with liver cirrhosis who did not undergo TIPS based on age and MELD score using the greedy algorithm. Patients were followed up until time of death or liver transplantation. Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were used to test for differences in survival outcome between the two groups.

RESULTS

A total of 288 patients with liver cirrhosis were included, of whom 144 underwent TIPS and 144 did not. The two groups were matched based on age and MELD score and were comparable with regard to gender and ethnicity. Mean MELD and Child-Pugh scores in the study population were 20.9 ± 6.5 and 10.5 ± 1.8, respectively. The most common indication for TIPS was varices (49 %), followed by refractory ascites (42 %). In the first 2 months post-TIPS, there was increased mortality or liver transplantation in patients who had TIPS compared to those who did not, but this did not reach statistical significance (p = 0.07). However, after 2 months, TIPS is associated with 56 % lower risk of dying or needing liver transplantation (p < 0.01) than cirrhotic patients who did not undergo TIPS.

CONCLUSION

In patients with liver cirrhosis and MELD ≥15, TIPS might improve transplant-free survival for patients who live for at least 2 months after the procedure.

Child-Pugh Versus MELD Score for the Assessment of Prognosis in Liver Cirrhosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies

Child-Pugh and MELD scores have been widely used for the assessment of prognosis in liver cirrhosis. A systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to compare the discriminative ability of Child-Pugh versus MELD score to assess the prognosis of cirrhotic patients.PubMed and EMBASE databases were searched. The statistical results were summarized from every individual study. The summary areas under receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratios were also calculated.Of the 1095 papers initially identified, 119 were eligible for the systematic review. Study population was heterogeneous among studies. They included 269 comparisons, of which 44 favored MELD score, 16 favored Child-Pugh score, 99 did not find any significant difference between them, and 110 did not report the statistical significance. Forty-two papers were further included in the meta-analysis. In patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure, Child-Pugh score had a higher sensitivity and a lower specificity than MELD score. In patients admitted to ICU, MELD score had a smaller negative likelihood ratio and a higher sensitivity than Child-Pugh score. In patients undergoing surgery, Child-Pugh score had a higher specificity than MELD score. In other subgroup analyses, Child-Pugh and MELD scores had statistically similar discriminative abilities or could not be compared due to the presence of significant diagnostic threshold effects.Although Child-Pugh and MELD scores had similar prognostic values in most of cases, their benefits might be heterogeneous in some specific conditions. The indications for Child-Pugh and MELD scores should be further identified.

Predictive accuracy comparison of MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh scores for survival in patients underwent TIPS placement: a systematic meta-analytic review

BACKGROUND

Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores have been used commonly to predict the survival in the patients with liver diseases underwent transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS). However, a debate has continued for years whether CTP could be replaced by MELD score. We performed a systematic meta-analytic review to compare the prediction capability of both scores in survival among patients with TIPS.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort studies among patients with TIPS were published as of May 2013 were identified by systematically searching four electronic literature database, such as Ovid Medline, PubMed, EMBASE, and ISI Web of Science. The difference of standardized mean difference (SMD) of c-statistics for the predictive accuracy of 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month survival for both MELD and CP scores, defined as effect size (ES), was calculated for each individual study and then pooled across studies using standard meta-analyses with a random effects model. Publication bias was evaluated using funnel plots and Kendall's rank correlation tests.

RESULTS

174 researches articles or conference abstracts were searched and reviewed using the combination of relevant terms in the articles. Finally, 11 articles were defined as eligible studies to evaluate simultaneously the predictive accuracy of MELD and CTP scores. In the meta-analyses, MELD score was superior to CP score in predicting 3-month survival after TIPS (mean ES, 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.13-1.14; P=0.01), but the predictive capability in 1-month, 6-month, and 12-month survival was not significant (1-month: mean ES, 0.79; 95% CI, -0.24-1.83; P=0.13; 6-month: mean ES, 0.46; 95% CI, -2.46-3.37; P=0.76; 12-month: mean ES, 0.36; 95% CI, -0.25-0.96; P=0.25).

CONCLUSIONS

No enough evidence are confirmed so far that MELD score is better than CTP score to assess the overall prognosis after TIPS, especially long-term predictions, but 3-month predictive capability of MELD score significantly outperform CTP score.

Pancreatic enzyme supplementation improves the incretin hormone response and attenuates postprandial glycemia in adolescents with cystic fibrosis: a randomized crossover trial

CONTEXT

Cystic fibrosis-related diabetes is characterized by postprandial, rather than fasting, hyperglycemia. Gastric emptying and the release of the incretin hormones [glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and glucose dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP)] are central to postprandial glycemic control. Lipolysis is required for fat to slow gastric emptying and stimulate incretin release.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the effect of pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy (PERT) on postprandial glycemia in adolescents with cystic fibrosis (CF).

DESIGN

This was a double-blinded randomized crossover trial. Subjects consumed a high-fat pancake, with either PERT (50 000 IU lipase) or placebo. Gastric emptying was measured by a breath test and blood sampled frequently for plasma blood glucose, insulin, glucagon, GLP-1, and GIP. Data were also compared with seven healthy subjects.

PARTICIPANTS

Fourteen adolescents (13.1 ± 2.7 y) with pancreatic-insufficient CF and seven healthy age-matched controls participated in the study.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Postprandial hyperglycemia was measured as peak glucose and area under the curve for blood glucose at 240 minutes.

RESULTS

CF subjects had postprandial hyperglycemia compared with controls (area under the curve, P < .0001). PERT reduced postprandial hyperglycemia (P = .0002), slowed gastric emptying (P = .003), and normalized GLP-1 and GIP secretion (P < .001 for each) when compared with placebo, without affecting insulin.

CONCLUSION

In young people with pancreatic insufficient CF, PERT markedly attenuates postprandial hyperglycemia by slowing gastric emptying and augmenting incretin hormone secretion.