Fluctuation analysis: can estimates be trusted?

Exact confidence intervals for population growth rate, longevity and generation time

By quantifying key life history parameters in populations, such as growth rate, longevity, and generation time, researchers and administrators can obtain valuable insights into its dynamics. Although point estimates of demographic parameters have been available since the inception of demography as a scientific discipline, the construction of confidence intervals has typically relied on approximations through series expansions or computationally intensive techniques. This study introduces the first mathematical expression for calculating confidence intervals for the aforementioned life history traits when individuals are unidentifiable and data are presented as a life table. The key finding is the accurate estimation of the confidence interval for r, the instantaneous growth rate, which is tested using Monte Carlo simulations with four arbitrary discrete distributions. In comparison to the bootstrap method, the proposed interval construction method proves more efficient, particularly for experiments with a total offspring size below 400. We discuss handling cases where data are organized in extended life tables or as a matrix of vital rates. We have developed and provided accompanying code to facilitate these computations.

Fluctuation analysis on mutation models with birth-date dependence

The classic Luria-Delbrück model can be interpreted as a Poisson compound (number of mutations) of exponential mixtures (developing time of mutant clones) of geometric distributions (size of a clone in a given time). This "three-ingredients" approach is generalized in this paper to the case where the split instant distributions of cells are not i.i.d. : the lifetime of each cell is assumed to depend on its birth date. This model takes also into account cell deaths and non-exponentially distributed lifetimes. Previous results on the convergence of the distribution of mutant counts are recovered. The particular case where the instantaneous division rates of normal and mutant cells are proportional is studied. The classic Luria-Delbrück and Haldane models are recovered. Probability computations and simulation algorithms are provided. Robust estimation methods developed for the classic mutation models are adapted to the new model: their properties of consistency and asymptotic normality remain true; their asymptotic variances are computed. Finally, the estimation biases induced by considering classic mutation models instead of an inhomogeneous model are studied with simulation experiments.

rSalvador: An R Package for the Fluctuation Experiment

The past few years have seen a surge of novel applications of the Luria-Delbrück fluctuation assay protocol in bacterial research. Appropriate analysis of fluctuation assay data often requires computational methods that are unavailable in the popular web tool FALCOR. This paper introduces an R package named rSalvador to bring improvements to the field. The paper focuses on rSalvador’s capabilities to alleviate three kinds of problems found in recent investigations: (i) resorting to partial plating without properly accounting for the effects of partial plating; (ii) conducting attendant fitness assays without incorporating mutants’ relative fitness in subsequent data analysis; and (iii) comparing mutation rates using methods that are in general inapplicable to fluctuation assay data. In addition, the paper touches on rSalvador’s capabilities to estimate sample size and the difficulties related to parameter nonidentifiability.

Time Inhomogeneous Mutation Models with Birth Date Dependence

The classic Luria-Delbrück model for fluctuation analysis is extended to the case where the split instant distributions of cells are not i.i.d.: the lifetime of each cell is assumed to depend on its birth date. This model takes also into account cell deaths and non-exponentially distributed lifetimes. In particular, it is possible to consider subprobability distributions and to model non-exponential growth. The extended model leads to a family of probability distributions which depend on the expected number of mutations, the death probability of mutant cells, and the split instant distributions of normal and mutant cells. This is deduced from the Bellman-Harris integral equation, written for the birth date inhomogeneous case. A new theorem of convergence for the final mutant counts is proved, using an analytic method. Particular examples like the Haldane model or the case where hazard functions of the split-instant distributions are proportional are studied. The Luria-Delbrück distribution with cell deaths is recovered. A computation algorithm for the probabilities is provided.

Luria-Delbrück, revisited: the classic experiment does not rule out Lamarckian evolution

We re-examined data from the classic Luria-Delbrück fluctuation experiment, which is often credited with establishing a Darwinian basis for evolution. We argue that, for the Lamarckian model of evolution to be ruled out by the experiment, the experiment must favor pure Darwinian evolution over both the Lamarckian model and a model that allows both Darwinian and Lamarckian mechanisms (as would happen for bacteria with CRISPR-Cas immunity). Analysis of the combined model was not performed in the original 1943 paper. The Luria-Delbrück paper also did not consider the possibility of neither model fitting the experiment. Using Bayesian model selection, we find that the Luria-Delbrück experiment, indeed, favors the Darwinian evolution over purely Lamarckian. However, our analysis does not rule out the combined model, and hence cannot rule out Lamarckian contributions to the evolutionary dynamics.

bz-rates: A Web Tool to Estimate Mutation Rates from Fluctuation Analysis

Fluctuation analysis is the standard experimental method for measuring mutation rates in micro-organisms. The appearance of mutants is classically described by a Luria-Delbrück distribution composed of two parameters: the number of mutations per culture (m) and the differential growth rate between mutant and wild-type cells (b). A precise estimation of these two parameters is a prerequisite to the calculation of the mutation rate. Here, we developed bz-rates, a Web tool to calculate mutation rates that provides three useful advances over existing Web tools. First, it allows taking into account b, the differential growth rate between mutant and wild-type cells, in the estimation of m with the generating function. Second, bz-rates allows the user to take into account a deviation from the Luria-Delbrück distribution called z, the plating efficiency, in the estimation of m. Finally, the Web site provides a graphical visualization of the goodness-of-fit between the experimental data and the model. bz-rates is accessible at http://www.lcqb.upmc.fr/bzrates.

General formulation of Luria-Delbrück distribution of the number of mutants

The Luria-Delbrück experiment is a cornerstone of evolutionary theory, demonstrating the randomness of mutations before selection. The distribution of the number of mutants in this experiment has been the subject of intense investigation during the past 70 years. Despite this considerable effort, most of the results have been obtained under the assumption of constant growth rate, which is far from the experimental condition. We derive here the properties of this distribution for arbitrary growth function for both the deterministic and stochastic growth of the mutants. The derivation we propose uses the number of wild-type bacteria as the independent variable instead of time. The derivation is surprisingly simple and versatile, allowing many generalizations to be taken easily into account.

Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process

Since fluctuation analysis was first introduced by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, it has been widely used to make inference about spontaneous mutation rates in cultured cells. Under certain model assumptions, the probability distribution of the number of mutants that appear in a fluctuation experiment can be derived explicitly, which provides the basis of mutation rate estimation. It has been shown that, among various existing estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator usually demonstrates some desirable properties such as consistency and lower mean squared error. However, its application in real experimental data is often hindered by slow computation of likelihood due to the recursive form of the mutant-count distribution. We propose a fast maximum likelihood estimator of mutation rates, MLE-BD, based on a birth-death process model with non-differential growth assumption. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimator derived from the Luria-Delbrück distribution, MLE-BD achieves substantial improvement on computational speed and is applicable to arbitrarily large number of mutants. In addition, it still retains good accuracy on point estimation.

Unbiased estimation of mutation rates under fluctuating final counts

Estimation methods for mutation rates (or probabilities) in Luria-Delbrück fluctuation analysis usually assume that the final number of cells remains constant from one culture to another. We show that this leads to systematically underestimate the mutation rate. Two levels of information on final numbers are considered: either the coefficient of variation has been independently estimated, or the final number of cells in each culture is known. In both cases, unbiased estimation methods are proposed. Their statistical properties are assessed both theoretically and through Monte-Carlo simulation. As an application, the data from two well known fluctuation analysis studies on Mycobacterium tuberculosis are reexamined.