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Vinson JE, Gottdenker NL, Chaves LF, Kaul RB, Kramer AM, Drake JM, Hall RJ. Land reversion and zoonotic spillover risk. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2022; 9:220582. [PMID: 35706674 PMCID: PMC9174719 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.220582] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2022] [Accepted: 05/11/2022] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Deforestation alters wildlife communities and modifies human-wildlife interactions, often increasing zoonotic spillover potential. When deforested land reverts to forest, species composition differences between primary and regenerating (secondary) forest could alter spillover risk trajectory. We develop a mathematical model of land-use change, where habitats differ in their relative spillover risk, to understand how land reversion influences spillover risk. We apply this framework to scenarios where spillover risk is higher in deforested land than mature forest, reflecting higher relative abundance of highly competent species and/or increased human-wildlife encounters, and where regenerating forest has either very low or high spillover risk. We find the forest regeneration rate, the spillover risk of regenerating forest relative to deforested land, and how rapidly regenerating forest regains attributes of mature forest determine landscape-level spillover risk. When regenerating forest has a much lower spillover risk than deforested land, reversion lowers cumulative spillover risk, but instaneous spillover risk peaks earlier. However, when spillover risk is high in regenerating and cleared habitats, landscape-level spillover risk remains high, especially when cleared land is rapidly abandoned then slowly regenerates to mature forest. These results suggest that proactive wildlife management and awareness of human exposure risk in regenerating forests could be important tools for spillover mitigation.
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Affiliation(s)
- John E. Vinson
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Nicole L. Gottdenker
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Department of Veterinary Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Luis Fernando Chaves
- Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Apartado Postal 0816-15 02593, Panamá, República de Panamá
| | - RajReni B. Kaul
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Andrew M. Kramer
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Department of Integrative Biology, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620, USA
| | - John M. Drake
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Richard J. Hall
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
- Department of Infectious Diseases, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
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Abstract
In an era in which conventional agriculture has come under question for its environmental and social costs, regenerative agriculture suggests that land management practices can be organized around farming and grazing practices that regenerate interdependent ecological and community processes for generations to come. However, little is known about the geographies of ‘regenerative’ and ‘conventional’ agricultural lands—what defines them, where they are, and the extent to which actual agricultural lands interweave both or are characterizable by neither. In the context of the Midwest of the United States, we develop and map an index quantifying the degrees to which the agricultural lands of counties could be said to be regenerative, conventional, or both. We complement these results by using a clustering method to partition the land into distinct agricultural regions. Both approaches rely on a set of variables characterizing land we developed through an iterative dialogue across difference among our authors, who have a range of relevant backgrounds. We map, analyze, and synthesize our results by considering local contexts beyond our variables, comparing and contrasting the resulting perspectives on the geographies of midwestern agricultural lands. Our results portray agricultural lands of considerable diversity within and between states, as well as ecological and physiographic regions. Understanding the general patterns and detailed empirical geographies that emerge suggests spatial relationships that can inform peer-to-peer exchanges among farmers, agricultural extension, civil society, and policy formation.
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Cai B, Hubacek K, Feng K, Zhang W, Wang F, Liu Y. Tension of Agricultural Land and Water Use in China's Trade: Tele-Connections, Hidden Drivers and Potential Solutions. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 2020; 54:5365-5375. [PMID: 32195586 DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c00256] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Interregional trade can potentially extend the management of scarce resources beyond a region's territory along supply chains. Here we combined the multiregional input-output model with structural decomposition analysis to reveal the distant connections of agricultural land and water use as well as the drivers behind their variations in China. Our results show that trade-embodied agricultural land use increase by 2.3-fold and 2.5-fold for virtual agricultural water use flows from 2002 to 2012. The water-starved northern China with abundant agricultural land is the main exporter of virtual (also called trade-embodied) agricultural land and water. Moreover, the role of the virtual water use importers and exporters were determined by the availability of land, rather than water resources. Based on scenario analysis, we found that if agricultural water use efficiency of north China reached the world's top-level but agricultural land use efficiency remained unchanged, the virtual water flows would be reduced by 32% and only water resources, not agricultural land, would be able to sustain future economic development. Our findings may provide significant information for potential solutions to China's regional water shortage from a land-water nexus perspective.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beiming Cai
- The college of Environment and Planning, Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China
- Key Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions (Henan University), Ministry of Education, Kaifeng, 475004, China
- Research Center for Rural Revitalization Strategy of Henan University, Kaifeng, 475004, China
| | - Klaus Hubacek
- Center for Energy and Environmental Sciences (IVEM), Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG), University of Groningen, Groningen, 9747 AG The Netherlands
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
| | - Kuishuang Feng
- Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20742, United States
| | - Wei Zhang
- State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing, 100012, China
- The Center for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Regional Environment, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China
| | - Feng Wang
- Business School, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
| | - Yu Liu
- Institute of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100190, China
- School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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