Do intensive care data on respiratory infections reflect influenza epidemics?

Epidemiology and burden of Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) in the aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic: A prospective sentinel surveillance study in a Tunisian Medical ICU, 2022/2023

BACKGROUND

Severe Acute Respiratory Infections (SARI) caused by influenza and other respiratory viruses pose significant global health challenges, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further strained healthcare systems. As the focus shifts from the pandemic to other respiratory infections, assessing the epidemiology and burden of SARI is crucial for healthcare planning and resource allocation. Aim: to understand the impact of the post-pandemic period on the epidemiology of SARI cases, clinical outcomes, and healthcare resource utilization in Tunisia.

METHODS

This is a prospective study conducted in a Tunisian MICU part of a national sentinel surveillance system, focusing on enhanced SARI surveillance. SARI cases from week 39/2022, 26 September to week 19/2023, 13 May were included, according to a standardized case definition. Samples were collected for virological RT-PCR testing, and an electronic system ensured standardized and accurate data collection. Descriptive statistics were performed to assess epidemiology, trends, and outcomes of SARI cases, and univariate/multivariate analyses to assess factors associated with mortality.

RESULTS

Among 312 MICU patients, 164 SARI cases were identified during the study period. 64(39%) RT-PCR were returned positive for at least one pathogen, with influenza A and B strains accounting for 20.7% of cases at the early stages of the influenza season. The MICU experienced a significant peak in admissions during weeks 1-11/2023, leading to resource mobilization and the creation of a surge unit. SARI cases utilized 1664/3120 of the MICU-stay days and required 1157 mechanical ventilation days. The overall mortality rate among SARI cases was 22.6%. Age, non-COPD, and ARDS were identified as independent predictors of mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The present study identified a relatively high rate of SARI cases, with 39% positivity for at least one respiratory virus, with influenza A and B strains occurring predominantly during the early stages of the influenza season. The findings shed light on the considerable resource utilization and mortality associated with these infections, underscoring the urgency for proactive management and efficient resource allocation strategies.

Experience of establishing severe acute respiratory surveillance in the Netherlands: Evaluation and challenges

The 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic prompted the World Health Organization (WHO) to recommend countries to establish a national severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) surveillance system for preparedness and emergency response. However, setting up or maintaining a robust SARI surveillance system has been challenging. Similar to other countries, surveillance data on hospitalisations for SARI in the Netherlands are still limited, in contrast to the robust surveillance data in primary care. The objective of this narrative review is to provide an overview, evaluation, and challenges of already available surveillance systems or datasets in the Netherlands, which might be used for near real-time surveillance of severe respiratory infections. Seven available surveillance systems or datasets in the Netherlands were reviewed. The evaluation criteria, including data quality, timeliness, representativeness, simplicity, flexibility, acceptability and stability were based on United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) guidelines for public health surveillance. We added sustainability as additional evaluation criterion. The best evaluated surveillance system or dataset currently available for SARI surveillance is crude mortality monitoring, although it lacks specificity. In contrast to influenza-like illness (ILI) in primary care, there is currently no gold standard for SARI surveillance in the Netherlands. Based on our experience with sentinel SARI surveillance, a fully or semi-automated, passive surveillance system seems most suited for a sustainable SARI surveillance system. An important future challenge remains integrating SARI surveillance into existing hospital programs in order to make surveillance data valuable for public health, as well as hospital quality of care management and individual patient care.

The association between influenza infections in primary care and intensive care admissions for severe acute respiratory infection (SARI): A modelling approach

Background

The burden of severe influenza virus infections is poorly known, for which surveillance of severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) is encouraged. Hospitalized SARI patients are however not always tested for influenza virus infection. Thus, to estimate the impact of influenza circulation we studied how influenza in primary care relates to intensive care unit (ICU) admissions using a modelling approach.

Methods

We used time‐series regression modelling to estimate a) the number of SARI admissions to ICU associated with medically attended influenza infections in primary care; b) how this varies by season; and c) the time lag between SARI and influenza time series. We analysed weekly adult ICU admissions (registry data) and adult influenza incidence (primary care surveillance data) from July 2007 through June 2016.

Results

Depending on the year, 0% to 12% of annual SARI admissions were associated with influenza (0‐554 in absolute numbers; population rate: 0/10 000‐0.39/10 000 inhabitants), up to 27% during influenza epidemics. The average optimal fitting lag was +1 week (SARI trend preceding influenza by 1 week), varying between seasons (−1 to +4) with most seasons showing positive lags.

Conclusion

Up to 12% of yearly SARI admissions to adult ICU are associated with influenza, but with large year‐to‐year variation and higher during influenza epidemics. In most years, SARI increases earlier than medically attended influenza infections in the general population. SARI surveillance could thus complement influenza‐like illness surveillance by providing an indication of the season‐specific burden of severe influenza infections and potential early warning of influenza activity and severity.

Estimating severity of influenza epidemics from severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in intensive care units

BACKGROUND

While influenza-like-illness (ILI) surveillance is well-organized at primary care level in Europe, few data are available on more severe cases. With retrospective data from intensive care units (ICU) we aim to fill this current knowledge gap. Using multiple parameters proposed by the World Health Organization we estimate the burden of severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) in the ICU and how this varies between influenza epidemics.

METHODS

We analyzed weekly ICU admissions in the Netherlands (2007-2016) from the National Intensive Care Evaluation (NICE) quality registry (100% coverage of adult ICUs in 2016; population size 14 million) to calculate SARI incidence, SARI peak levels, ICU SARI mortality, SARI mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV score, and the ICU SARI/ILI ratio. These parameters were calculated both yearly and per separate influenza epidemic (defined epidemic weeks). A SARI syndrome was defined as admission diagnosis being any of six pneumonia or pulmonary sepsis codes in the APACHE IV prognostic model. Influenza epidemic periods were retrieved from primary care sentinel influenza surveillance data.

RESULTS

Annually, an average of 13% of medical admissions to adult ICUs were for a SARI but varied widely between weeks (minimum 5% to maximum 25% per week). Admissions for bacterial pneumonia (59%) and pulmonary sepsis (25%) contributed most to ICU SARI. Between the eight different influenza epidemics under study, the value of each of the severity parameters varied. Per parameter the minimum and maximum of those eight values were as follows: ICU SARI incidence 558-2400 cumulated admissions nationwide, rate 0.40-1.71/10,000 inhabitants; average APACHE score 71-78; ICU SARI mortality 13-20%; ICU SARI/ILI ratio 8-17 cases per 1000 expected medically attended ILI in primary care); peak-incidence 101-188 ICU SARI admissions in highest-incidence week, rate 0.07-0.13/10,000 population).

CONCLUSIONS

In the ICU there is great variation between the yearly influenza epidemic periods in terms of different influenza severity parameters. The parameters also complement each other by reflecting different aspects of severity. Prospective syndromic ICU SARI surveillance, as proposed by the World Health Organization, thereby would provide insight into the severity of ongoing influenza epidemics, which differ from season to season.

Respiratory Viruses in Invasively Ventilated Critically Ill Patients-A Prospective Multicenter Observational Study

OBJECTIVES

The presence of respiratory viruses and the association with outcomes were assessed in invasively ventilated ICU patients, stratified by admission diagnosis.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

Five ICUs in the Netherlands.

PATIENTS

Between September 1, 2013, and April 30, 2014, 1,407 acutely admitted and invasively ventilated patients were included.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Nasopharyngeal swabs and tracheobronchial aspirates were collected upon intubation and tested for 14 respiratory viruses. Out of 1,407 patients, 156 were admitted because of a severe acute respiratory infection and 1,251 for other reasons (non-severe acute respiratory infection). Respiratory viruses were detected in 28.8% of severe acute respiratory infection patients and 17.0% in non-severe acute respiratory infection (p < 0.001). In one third, viruses were exclusively detected in tracheobronchial aspirates. Rhinovirus and human metapneumovirus were more prevalent in severe acute respiratory infection patients (9.6% and 2.6% vs 4.5 and 0.2%; p = 0.006 and p < 0.001). In both groups, there were no associations between the presence of viruses and the number of ICU-free days at day 28, crude mortality, and mortality in multivariate regression analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Respiratory viruses are frequently detected in acutely admitted and invasively ventilated patients. Rhinovirus and human metapneumovirus are more frequently found in severe acute respiratory infection patients. Detection of respiratory viruses is not associated with worse clinically relevant outcomes in the studied cohort of patients.