Replicating the violence risk appraisal guide: a total forensic cohort study

Evidence-based sentencing and scientific evidence

Evidence-based sentencing (EBS) is a new name for an aspiration that has deep roots in criminal law: to apply the sentence most appropriate to each offender's risk of reoffending, in order to reduce that risk as far as possible. This modern version of the traditional sentencing goals of rehabilitation and incapacitation fits into the broader approach of so-called "evidence-based public policy." It takes the view that the best existing evidence for reducing reoffending are modern structured risk assessment tools and claims to be able to achieve several goals at once: reducing reoffending, maintaining high levels of public safety, making more efficient use of public resources, and moving criminal policy away from ideological battles by basing it on the objective knowledge provided by the best available scientific evidence. However, despite the success of this approach in recent years, it is not clear to what extent it succeeds in correctly assessing the risk of individual offenders, nor whether it achieves its intended effect of reducing recidivism. This paper aims to critically examine these two issues: the quality of the scientific evidence on which EBS is based, and the available data on the extent to which it achieves (or does not achieve) its intended goals.

Integral Monitoring System in Cases of Gender Violence VioGén System

This paper discusses the normative origins, elements and operative foundations of the Integral Monitoring System in Cases ofGender Violence (VioGén System), a national government software application in Spain, implemented since 2007 to coordinate the actions of Spanish public professionals involved in the monitoring, assistance and protection of abused women and their minor children. Thousands of specialist users from the different integrated institutions access daily this application, which already manages more than 510,000 cases. The law enforcement part of the VioGén System is, for the time being, the most developed one, being the "police assessment of the risk of new violence” one of the main functionalities of the aforementioned system, for which two actuarial questionnaires have been developed (VPR and VPER). These questionnaires count with almost three million assessments; which consequently help in carrying out forensic, penitentiary and welfare assessments. Although the VioGén System currently only deals with cases of gender violence, in the future it may incorporate data on domestic violence, and technically it may be extended to the monitoring of other vulnerable groups.

Predictive Validity of the HKT-R Risk Assessment Tool: Two and 5-Year Violent Recidivism in a Nationwide Sample of Dutch Forensic Psychiatric Patients

This study has examined the predictive validity of the Historical Clinical Future [ Historisch Klinisch Toekomst] Revised risk assessment scheme in a cohort of 347 forensic psychiatric patients, which were discharged between 2004 and 2008 from any of 12 highly secure forensic centers in the Netherlands. Predictive validity was measured 2 and 5 years after release. Official reconviction data obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Security and Justice were used as outcome measures. Violent reoffending within 2 and 5 years after discharge was assessed. With regard to violent reoffending, results indicated that the predictive validity of the Historical domain was modest for 2 (area under the curve [AUC] = .75) and 5 (AUC = .74) years. The predictive validity of the Clinical domain was marginal for 2 (admission: AUC = .62; discharge: AUC = .63) and 5 (admission: AUC = .69; discharge: AUC = .62) years after release. The predictive validity of the Future domain was modest (AUC = .71) for 2 years and low for 5 (AUC = .58) years. The total score of the instrument was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .68) years. Finally, the Final Risk Judgment was modest for 2 years (AUC = .78) and marginal for 5 (AUC = .63) years time at risk. It is concluded that this risk assessment instrument appears to be a satisfactory instrument for risk assessment.

Sexually violent predator risk assessments with the violence risk appraisal guide-revised: A shaky practice

Twenty-two jurisdictions in the United States permit the involuntary civil confinement of sexual offenders upon expiration of their criminal sentence and, if committed, these individuals face possible lifetime commitment. One of the legal requirements that psychologists must address in sexually violent predator evaluations is the likelihood that an individual will engage in dangerous sexual behavior and consideration of the probabilities for sexual recidivism contained in actuarial experience tables best address this inquiry. Clinicians find it increasingly difficult to affirm the likelihood threshold in the face of decreasing base rates and score-wise probability estimates for sexual recidivism reported in contemporary actuarial experience tables. The Violence Risk Appraisal Guide-Revised (VRAG-R) has been promoted to assess sexually violent predators because it has been presented as a more accurate predictor of sexual recidivism and the results more likely satisfy the legal standard of sexual dangerousness. This article conducts an in-depth analysis of the predictive and psychometric properties of the VRAG-R that are most relevant to the fit of the VRAG-R when addressing the sexual dangerousness standard proscribed by SVP laws. Recommendations for future research are offered to improve the fit of the VRAG-R to the legal inquiry of sexual dangerousness and implications for using the current iteration of the VRAG-R in forensic practice are discussed.