Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

Dynamic changes in the suitable areas for the pinewood nematode in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region of China

The pine wood nematode (PWN), one of the largest alien forestry pests in China, has caused numerous deaths of conifer forests in Europe and Asia, and is spreading to other suitable areas worldwide. Information on the spatial distribution of the PWN can provide important information for the management of this species. Here, the current and future geographical distributions of PWN were simulated in the Sichuan-Chongqing region of China in detail based on the MaxEnt model. The results indicated excellent prediction performance, with an area under curve score of more than 0.9. The key factors selected were the altitude, maximum temperature of the warmest month, annual precipitation, precipitation of the wettest quarter, and minimum temperature of the coldest month, with thresholds of < 400 m, > 37.5 °C, 1100-1250 mm, 460-530 mm and > 4.0 °C, respectively, indicating that the PWN can live in low-altitude, warm, and humid areas. The suitable region for the PWN is mainly concentrated in the metropolitan area, northeast of Chongqing, and the southeastern and eastern parts of Sichuan Province. Most importantly, in addition to their actual distribution area, the newly identified suitably distribution areas A, B, C, and D for the coming years and E, F, G, and H for the period-2041-2060 (2050s) should be strictly monitored for the presence of PWNs. Altogether, the suitable distribution ranges of the PWN in the Sichuan-Chongqing region show an increasing trend; therefore, owing to its inability to disperse by itself, human activities involving pine trees and vectors of the Japanese pine sawyer should be intensively controlled to prevent the PWN from spreading to these newly discovered suitable areas.

Vascular Plant Species Inventory of Mexico's Revillagigedo National Park: Awareness of Alien Invaders as a Sine Qua Non Prerequisite for Island Conservation

The Revillagigedo Archipelago, located in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, stands out for its unique biological richness and endemism. These islands remained uninhabited until the second half of the twentieth century, allowing a better conservation status than on other oceanic islands. However, the continuous introduction of potentially invasive alien plant species, and the lack of adequate control or eradication actions, jeopardize the conservation and restoration of these islands' fragile ecosystems. We present the most complete vascular plant species inventory and an updated list of alien plant species of the Revillagigedo Archipelago, which was compiled through an extensive review of national and international plant collections and other sources. Our 272 species list includes 106 alien plant species (39.3%; 104 in Socorro, and 16 in Clarion): 67 (24.8%) are naturalized, 14 (5.2%) are casual aliens, and 25 (9.3%) subsist under cultivation. The documented alien species belong to 73 families. Annual and perennial herbs are the prevailing life forms in the alien flora, while naturalized species are primarily native to North America. The number of introduced species has increased significantly since the islands became inhabited. Many of the recently introduced species pose a major invasion risk like on other islands of the world.

Invasion by an ecosystem engineer changes biotic interactions between native and non-native taxa

Earth systems are nearing a global tipping point, beyond which the dynamics of biological communities will become unstable. One major driver of instability is species invasion, especially by organisms that act as "ecosystem engineers" through their modification of abiotic and biotic factors. To understand how native organisms respond to modified habitat, it is essential to examine biological communities within invaded and non-invaded habitat, identifying compositional shifts in native and non-native taxa as well as measuring how modification by ecosystem engineers has affected interactions among community members. Using dietary metabarcoding, our study examines the response of a native Hawaiian generalist predator (Araneae: Pagiopalus spp.) to habitat modification by comparing biotic interactions across metapopulations of spiders collected in native forest and sites invaded by kāhili ginger. Our study shows that, although there are shared components of the dietary community, spiders in invaded habitat are eating a less consistent and more diverse diet consisting of more non-native arthropods which are rarely or entirely undetected in spiders collected from native forest. Additionally, the frequency of novel interactions with parasites was significantly higher in invaded sites, reflected by the frequency and diversity of non-native Hymenoptera parasites and entomopathogenic fungi. The study highlights the role of habitat modification driven by an invasive plant in altering community structure and biotic interactions, threatening the stability of the ecosystem through significant changes to the biotic community.

Optimizing invasive species management using mathematical programming to support stewardship of water and carbon-based ecosystem services

Invasive species alter hydrologic processes at watershed scales, with impacts to biodiversity and the supporting ecosystem services. This effect is aggravated by climate change. Here, we integrated modelled hydrologic data, remote sensing products, climate data, and linear mixed integer optimization (MIP) to identify stewardship actions across space and time that can reduce the impact of invasive species. The study area is the windward coast of Hawai'i Island (USA) across which non-native strawberry guava occurrence varies from extremely dense stands in lower watershed reaches, to low densities in upper watershed forests. We focused on the removal of strawberry guava, an invader that exerts significant impacts on watershed condition. MIP analyses spatially optimized the assignment of effective management actions to increase water yield, generate revenue from enhanced freshwater services, and income from removed biomass. The hydrological benefit of removing guava, often marginal when considered in isolation, was financially quantified, and single- and multiobjective MIP formulations were then developed over a 10-year planning horizon. Optimization resulted in $2.27 million USD benefit over the planning horizon using a payment-for-ecosystem-services scheme. That value jumped to $4.67 million when allowing work schedules with overnight camping to reduce costs. Pareto frontiers of weighted pairs of management goals showed the benefit of clustering treatments over space and time to improve financial efficiency. Values of improved land-water natural capital using payment-for-ecosystem-services schemes are provided for several combinations of spatial, temporal, economical, and ecosystem services flows.

Hawaiian Island endemic and indigenous plant species have higher mycorrhizal incidence than the global average

PREMISE

Prior efforts have shown that continents harbor a greater proportion of mycorrhizal hosts than on islands. However, in the Hawaiian Islands, estimates of the proportion of mycorrhizal plant species are higher than on continents (>90%), but there are few studies to support this claim. Concurrently, Hawaii's flora faces some of the greatest global risks of extinction, and significant efforts are aimed at restoring native vegetation. Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi have been shown to improve plant restoration success, but little work has been done in Hawaii to understand the extent of mycorrhizal associations among native plant populations.

METHODS

We surveyed 35 native Hawaiian plant species in the wild, focusing on plant species that are reared for reintroduction. Roots from wild individuals were collected from 10 sites on Oahu to determine degree of mycorrhizal fungal colonization and how this varies across host populations.

RESULTS

Of the species surveyed, 97% had evidence of mycorrhizal colonization, including 25 endemic and nine indigenous species from 23 families. The mycorrhizal status of 22 of the species surveyed was unknown before this study. For four species, the degree of colonization by AM fungi differed among sites, and these differences corresponded with variations in precipitation and temperature.

CONCLUSIONS

The high incidence of mycorrhizal colonization provides evidence that island flora can actually harbor more mycorrhizal hosts than species on mainlands and that future reintroduction projects should consider the potentially important roles of AM fungi for success of these hosts in the wild.

Ambrosia Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Communities and Frass Production in 'Ōhi'a (Myrtales: Myrtaceae) Infected With Ceratocystis (Microascales: Ceratocystidaceae) Fungi Responsible for Rapid 'Ōhi'a Death

Rapid 'Ōhi'a Death (ROD) is a deadly disease that is threatening the native Hawaiian keystone tree species, 'ōhi'a lehua (Metrosideros polymorpha Gaudich). Ambrosia beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) and their frass are hypothesized to play a major role in the spread of ROD, although their ecological niches and frass production within trees and across the landscape are not well understood. We characterized the beetle communities and associated frass production from bolts (tree stem sections) representative of entire individual 'ōhi'a trees from multiple locations across Hawai'i Island by rearing beetles and testing their frass for viable ROD-causing fungi. Additionally, we estimated frass production for three beetle species by weighing their frass over time. We found that Xyleborinus saxesenii (Ratzburg), Xyleborus affinis Eichhoff, Xyleborus ferrugineus (Fabricius), Xyleborus perforans (Wollaston), and Xyleborus simillimus Perkins were commonly found on ROD-infected 'ōhi'a and each produced frass containing viable Ceratocystis propagules. The Hawai'i Island endemic beetle and the only native ambrosia beetle associated with 'ōhi'a, X. simillimus, was limited to high elevations and appeared to utilize similar tree heights or niche dimensions as the invasive X. ferrugineus. Viable Ceratocystis propagules expelled in frass were found throughout entire tree bole sections as high as 13 m. Additionally, we found that X. ferrugineus produced over 4× more frass than X. simillimus. Our results indicate the ambrosia beetle community and their frass play an important role in the ROD pathosystem. This information may help with the development and implementation of management strategies to control the spread of the disease.

Vegetation-Rainfall interactions reveal how climate variability and climate change alter spatial patterns of wildland fire probability on Big Island, Hawaii

The area burned annually by wildland fire in Hawaii has increased fourfold in recent decades. The archipelago's novel fuel types and climatic heterogeneity pose significant challenges for fire risk assessment and fire management. Probability-based fire occurrence models using historical wildfire records provide a means to assess and attribute fire risk in regions of the world like Hawaii where investment in fire science is limited. This research used generalized additive models to 1) assess the relative contribution of vegetation, climate, and human-caused ignitions to the probability of fire in the northwest quadrant of Hawaii Island and 2) compare how landscape flammability varies due to interannual rainfall variability versus projected changes in mean annual rainfall (MAR) and temperature. Annual fire probability was highest for grasslands and peaked at drier conditions (0.04 at 450 mm MAR) when compared with shrublands (0.03 at 650 mm MAR) and forest (0.015 at 600 mm MAR). Excess rainfall the year prior to fire occurrence increased fire risk across grasslands, and thus overall fire probability, more so than drought the year that fire occurred. Drying and warming trends for the region under projected climate change increased maximum values of fire probability by as much as 375% and shifted areas of peak landscape flammability to higher elevation. Model predictions under future climate also indicate the largest changes in landscape flammability will happen by mid-Century. The influence of antecedent wet years on fire risk can improve near-term predictions of fire risk in Hawaii while climate projections indicate that fire management will need to be prioritized at upper elevations where high value natural resources are concentrated.

Collaboration Across Worldviews: Managers and Scientists on Hawai'i Island Utilize Knowledge Coproduction to Facilitate Climate Change Adaptation

Complex socio-ecological issues, such as climate change have historically been addressed through technical problem solving methods. Yet today, climate science approaches are increasingly accounting for the roles of diverse social perceptions, experiences, cultural norms, and worldviews. In support of this shift, we developed a research program on Hawai'i Island that utilizes knowledge coproduction to integrate the diverse worldviews of natural and cultural resource managers, policy professionals, and researchers within actionable science products. Through their work, local field managers regularly experience discrete land and waterscapes. Additionally, in highly interconnected rural communities, such as Hawai'i Island, managers often participate in the social norms and values of communities that utilize these ecosystems. Such local manager networks offer powerful frameworks within which to co-develop and implement actionable science. We interviewed a diverse set of local managers with the aim of incorporating their perspectives into the development of a collaborative climate change research agenda that builds upon existing professional networks utilized by managers and scientists while developing new research products. We report our manager needs assessment, the development process of our climate change program, our interactive forums, and our ongoing research products. Our needs assessment showed that the managers' primary source of information were other professional colleagues, and our in-person forums informed us that local managers are very interested in interacting with a wider range of networks to build upon their management capacities. Our initial programmatic progress suggests that co-created research products and in-person forums strengthen the capacities of local managers to adapt to change.

Insights from modeling studies on how climate change affects invasive alien species geography

Climate change and biological invasions are threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. It has now been widely acknowledged that climate change will affect biological invasions. A large number of studies have investigated predicted shifts and other changes in the geographic ranges of invasive alien species related to climate change using modeling approaches. Yet these studies have provided contradictory evidence, and no consensus has been reached. We conducted a systematic review of 423 modeling case studies included in 71 publications that have examined the predicted effects of climate change on those species. We differentiate the approaches used in these studies and synthesize their main results. Our results reaffirm the major role of climate change as a driver of invasive alien species distribution in the future. We found biases in the literature both regarding the taxa, toward plants and invertebrates, and the areas of the planet investigated. Despite these biases, we found for the plants and vertebrates studied that climate change will more frequently contribute to a decrease in species range size than an increase in the overall area occupied. This is largely due to oceans preventing terrestrial invaders from spreading poleward. In contrast, we found that the ranges of invertebrates and pathogens studied are more likely to increase following climate change. An important caveat to these findings is that researchers have rarely considered the effects of climate change on transport, introduction success, or the resulting impacts. We recommend closing these research gaps, and propose additional avenues for future investigations, as well as opportunities and challenges for managing invasions under climate change.

Genomic diversity and macroecology of the crop wild relatives of domesticated pea

There is growing interest in the conservation and utilization of crop wild relatives (CWR) in international food security policy and research. Legumes play an important role in human health, sustainable food production, global food security, and the resilience of current agricultural systems. Pea belongs to the ancient set of cultivated plants of the Near East domestication center and remains an important crop today. Based on genome-wide analysis, P. fulvum was identified as a well-supported species, while the diversity of wild P. sativum subsp. elatius was structured into 5 partly geographically positioned clusters. We explored the spatial and environmental patterns of two progenitor species of domesticated pea in the Mediterranean Basin and in the Fertile Crescent in relation to the past and current climate. This study revealed that isolation by distance does not explain the genetic structure of P. sativum subsp. elatius in its westward expansion from its center of origin. The genetic diversity of wild pea may be driven by Miocene-Pliocene events, while the phylogenetic diversity centers may reflect Pleisto-Holocene climatic changes. These findings help set research and discussion priorities and provide geographical and ecological information for germplasm-collecting missions, as well as for the preservation of extant diversity in ex-situ collections.

No evidence of critical slowing down in two endangered Hawaiian honeycreepers

There is debate about the current population trends and predicted short-term fates of the endangered forest birds, Hawai`i Creeper (Loxops mana) and Hawai`i `Ākepa (L. coccineus). Using long-term population size estimates, some studies report forest bird populations as stable or increasing, while other studies report signs of population decline or impending extinction associated with introduced Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus) increase. Reliable predictors of impending population collapse, well before the collapse begins, have been reported in simulations and microcosm experiments. In these studies, statistical indicators of critical slowing down, a phenomenon characterized by longer recovery rates after population size perturbation, are reported to be early warning signals of an impending regime shift observable prior to the tipping point. While the conservation applications of these metrics are commonly discussed, early warning signal detection methods are rarely applied to population size data from natural populations, so their efficacy and utility in species management remain unclear. We evaluated two time series of state-space abundance estimates (1987-2012) from Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai`i to test for evidence of early warning signals of impending population collapse for the Hawai`i Creeper and Hawai`i `Ākepa. We looked for signals throughout the time series, and prior to 2000, when white-eye abundance began increasing. We found no evidence for either species of increasing variance, autocorrelation, or skewness, which are commonly reported early warning signals. We calculated linear rather than ordinary skewness because the latter is biased, particularly for small sample sizes. Furthermore, we identified break-points in trends over time for both endangered species, indicating shifts in slopes away from strongly increasing trends, but they were only weakly supported by Bayesian change-point analyses (i.e., no step-wise changes in abundance). The break-point and change-point test results, in addition to the early warning signal analyses, support that the two populations do not appear to show signs of critical slowing down or decline.

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics 'akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and 'akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua'i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of 'akeke'e and 'akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these species were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua'i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai'i for these Kaua'i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

Species-environment interactions changed by introduced herbivores in an oceanic high-mountain ecosystem

Summit areas of oceanic islands constitute some of the most isolated ecosystems on earth, highly vulnerable to climate change and introduced species. Within the unique high-elevation communities of Tenerife (Canary Islands), reproductive success and thus long-term survival of species may depend on environmental suitability as well as threat by introduced herbivores. By experimentally modifying the endemic and vulnerable species Viola cheiranthifolia along its entire altitudinal occurrence range, we studied plant performance, autofertility, pollen limitation and visitation rate and the interactive effect of grazing by non-native rabbits on them. We assessed the grazing effects by recording (1) the proportion of consumed plants and flowers along the gradient, (2) comparing fitness traits of herbivore-excluded plants along the gradient, and (3) comparing fitness traits, autofertility and pollen limitation between plants excluded from herbivores with unexcluded plants at the same locality. Our results showed that V. cheiranthifolia performance is mainly affected by inter-annual and microhabitat variability along the gradient, especially in the lowest edge. Despite the increasingly adverse environmental conditions, the plant showed no pollen limitation with elevation, which is attributed to the increase in autofertility levels (≥ 50% of reproductive output) and decrease in competition for pollinators at higher elevations. Plant fitness is, however, extremely reduced owing to the presence of non-native rabbits in the area (consuming more than 75% of the individuals in some localities), which in turn change plant trait-environment interactions along the gradient. Taken together, these findings indicate that the elevational variation found on plant performance results from the combined action of non-native rabbits with the microhabitat variability, exerting intricate ecological influences that threaten the survival of this violet species.

Nutrient enrichment alters impacts of Hydrocotyle vulgaris invasion on native plant communities

Nutrients may affect the invasiveness of alien plants and the invasibility of native plant communities. We performed a greenhouse experiment to investigate the interactive effect of invasion by a clonal herb Hydrocotyle vulgaris and nutrient enrichment on biomass and evenness of native plant communities. We established three types of plant communities (H. vulgaris alone, native plant communities without or with H. vulgaris) under low and high levels of nutrients. Native communities consisted of eight native, terrestrial species of three functional groups, i.e. four grasses, two legumes, and two forbs. Invasion of H. vulgaris had no effect on biomass of the native community, the functional groups, or the individual species. High nutrients increased biomass of grasses, but reduced evenness of the community. High nutrients also decreased the competitive effect, and the relative dominance index of H. vulgaris. Therefore, high nutrients reduced the competitive ability of H. vulgaris and enhanced the resistance of the native community to invasion. The results provide a basis for management strategies to control the invasion and spread of H. vulgaris by manipulating resource availability to support native communities.

Vegetation and fire in lowland dry forest at Wa'ahila Ridge on O'ahu, Hawai'i

Long-term ecological studies are critical for providing key insights in ecology, environmental change, natural resource management and biodiversity conservation. However, island fire ecology is poorly understood. No previous studies are available that analyze vegetative changes in burned and unburned dry forest remnants on Wa'ahila Ridge, Hawai'i. This study investigates vegetation succession from 2008 to 2015, following a fire in 2007 which caused significant differences in species richness, plant density, and the frequency of woody, herb, grass, and lichens between burned and unburned sites. These findings infer that introduced plants have better competitive ability to occupy open canopy lands than native plants after fire. This study also illustrates the essential management need to prevent alien plant invasion, and to restore the native vegetation in lowland areas of the Hawaiian Islands by removing invasive species out-planting native plants after fire.

The rapid climate change-caused dichotomy on subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan: Reduction in habitat diversity and increase in species diversity

Yunnan's biodiversity is under considerable pressure and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in this area have become increasingly fragmented through agriculture, logging, planting of economic plants, mining activities and changing environment. The aims of the study are to investigate climate change-induced changes of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in Yunnan and identify areas of current species richness centers for conservation preparation. Stacked species distribution models were created to generate ensemble forecasting of species distributions, alpha diversity and beta diversity for Yunnan's subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests in both current and future climate scenarios. Under stacked species distribution models in rapid climate changes scenarios, changes of water-energy dynamics may possibly reduce beta diversity and increase alpha diversity. This point provides insight for future conservation of evergreen broad-leaved forest in Yunnan, highlighting the need to fully consider the problem of vegetation homogenization caused by transformation of water-energy dynamics.

Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected]

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria’s life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.