Serum procalcitonin level and SOFA score at discharge from the intensive care unit predict post-intensive care unit mortality: a prospective study

SOFA Score Plus Impedance Ratio Predicts Mortality in Critically Ill Patients Admitted to the Emergency Department: Retrospective Observational Study

Background: The Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) is a scoring system used for the evaluation of disease severity and prognosis of critically ill patients. The impedance ratio (Imp-R) is a novel mortality predictor. Aims: This study aimed to evaluate the combination of the SOFA + Imp-R in the prediction of mortality in critically ill patients admitted to the Emergency Department (ED). Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in adult patients with acute illness admitted to the ED of a tertiary-care referral center. Baseline SOFA score and bioelectrical impedance analysis to obtain the Imp-R were performed within the first 24 h after admission to the ED. A Cox regression analysis was performed to evaluate the mortality risk of the initial SOFA score plus the Imp-R. Harrell’s C-statistic and decision curve analyses (DCA) were performed. Results: Out of 325 patients, 240 were included for analysis. Overall mortality was 31.3%. Only 21.3% of non-surviving patients died after hospital discharge, and 78.4% died during their hospital stay. Of the latter, 40.6% died in the ED. The SOFA and Imp-R values were higher in non-survivors and were significantly associated with mortality in all models. The combination of the SOFA + Imp-R significantly predicted 30-day mortality, in-hospital mortality, and ED mortality with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.80 (95% CI: 74–0.86), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74–0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.66–0.84), respectively. The DCA showed that combining the SOFA + Imp-R improved the prediction of mortality through the lower risk thresholds. Conclusions: The addition of the Imp-R to the baseline SOFA score on admission to the ED improves mortality prediction in severely acutely ill patients admitted to the ED.

Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and 90-day mortality in patients with kidney transplant status at first ICU admission: a cohort study of 428 patients

PURPOSE

We investigated the prognostic accuracy of scores of SOFA for 90-day mortality in patients with kidney transplant status identified from the public Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III databank.

METHODS

A total of 428 participants with kidney transplant status who were admitted for the first time to the ICU were included. The target-independent and target-dependent variables were the SOFA scores in the first 3 days of ICU admission and 90-day mortality, respectively.

RESULTS

Fully adjusted binary logistic regression indicated that the day-2 and day-3 SOFA scores were positively associated with a risk of 90-day mortality after adjustment for confounders (odds ratio: 1.196, 95% confidence interval: 1.052-1.360; odds ratio: 1.233, 95% confidence interval: 1.062-1.432). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed areas under the curve for the prediction of 90-day mortality from SOFA scores on days 1, 2 and 3 were 0.524, 0.654, and 0.727, respectively. Further analysis using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariate regression models of 90-day survival showed that patients with low SOFA scores survived longer than those with high scores.

CONCLUSION

The SOFA scores in the early days of ICU admission were positively associated with 90-day outcomes although the first-day score showed no significant correlation.

Derivation and validation of a new nutritional index for predicting 90 days mortality after ICU admission in a Korean population

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Predicting the mortality in patients admitted to the ICU is important for determining a treatment strategy and public health policy. Although many scores have been developed to predict the mortality, these scores were based on Caucasian population. We aimed to develop a new prognostic index, the New nutritional index (NNI), to predict 90-days mortality after ICU admission based on Korean population.

METHODS

Patients (1453) who admitted intensive care unit (ICU) of the Gangnam Severance hospital were analyzed. After exclusion, 984 patients were randomly divided into internal (n = 702) and external validation (n = 282) data set. The new nutritional index (NNI) was developed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression with backward selection of predictors. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and comparison of the area under the curve (AUC) verified the better predictor of 90 days-mortality after ICU admission.

RESULTS

The NNI better predicted 90 days-mortality compared to modified NUTRIC score, APACHE II scores, SOFA scores, CRP, glucose, total protein, and albumin level in internal and external data sets, with AUC of 0.862 (SE: 0.017, 95% CI: 0.829-0.895) and 0.858 (SE: 0.015, 95% CI: 0.829-0.887), respectively. The calibration plots using external data set for validation showed a close approximation to the logistic calibration of each nomogram, and p-value of Hosmer and Lemeshow test was 0.1804.

CONCLUSION

The NNI has advantages as a predictor of 90 days mortality based on nutritional status in the Korean population.

suPAR in the assessment of post intensive care unit prognosis: a pilot study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the performance of soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor upon intensive care unit discharge to predict post intensive care unit mortality.

METHODS

A prospective observational cohort study was conducted during a 24-month period in an 8-bed polyvalent intensive care unit. APACHE II, SOFA, C-reactive protein, white cell count and soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor on the day of intensive care unit discharge were collected from patients who survived intensive care unit admission.

RESULTS

Two hundred and two patients were included in this study, 29 patients (18.6%) of whom died after intensive care unit discharge. Nonsurvivors were older and more seriously ill upon intensive care unit admission with higher severity scores, and nonsurvivors required extended use of vasopressors than did survivors. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of SOFA, APACHE II, C-reactive protein, white cell count, and soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor at intensive care unit discharge as prognostic markers of hospital death were 0.78 (95%CI 0.70 - 0.86); 0.70 (95%CI 0.61 - 0.79); 0.54 (95%CI 0.42 - 0.65); 0.48 (95%CI 0.36 - 0.58); and 0.68 (95%CI 0.58 - 0.78), respectively. SOFA was independently associated with a higher risk of in-hospital mortality (OR 1.673; 95%CI 1.252 - 2.234), 28-day mortality (OR 1.861; 95%CI 1.856 - 2.555) and 90-day mortality (OR 1.584; 95%CI 1.241 - 2.022).

CONCLUSION

At intensive care unit discharge, soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor is a poor predictor of post intensive care unit prognosis.

High red blood cell distribution width as a marker of hospital mortality after ICU discharge: a cohort study

Background

High red blood cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with worse outcome in diverse scenarios, including in critical illness. The Sabadell score (SS) predicts in-hospital survival after ICU discharge. We aimed to determine RDW’s association with survival after ICU discharge and whether RDW can improve the accuracy of the SS.

Design

Retrospective cohort study. Setting: general ICU at a university hospital.

Patients

We included all patients discharged to wards from January 2010 to October 2016.

Methods

We analyzed associations between RDW and variables recorded on admission (age, comorbidities, severity score), during the ICU stay (treatments, complications, length of stay (LOS)), and at ICU discharge (SS). The primary outcome was hospital mortality. Statistical analysis included multivariable logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses.

Results

We discharged 3366 patients to wards; median ward LOS was 7 [4–13] days; ward mortality was 5.2%. Mean RDW at ICU discharge was 15.4 ± 2.5%. Ward mortality was higher at each quartile of RDW (0.7%, 2.9%, 7.5%, 10.3%; area under ROC 0.81). A logistic regression model with Sabadell score obtained an excellent accuracy for ward mortality (area under ROC 0.863), and the addition of RDW slightly improved accuracy (AUROC 0.890, p < 0.05). Recursive partitioning demonstrated higher mortality in patients with high RDW at each SS level (1.6% vs. 0.3% in SS0, 9.7% vs. 1.1% in SS1, 21.9% vs. 9.7% in SS2), but not in SS3.

Conclusion

High RDW is a marker of severity at ICU discharge and improves the accuracy of Sabadell score in predicting ward mortality except in the more extreme SS3.

Critical care for dengue in adult patients: an overview of current knowledge and future challenges

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review aims to update and summarize the current knowledge about clinical features, management, and risk factors of adult dengue patients requiring intensive care with consequently higher risk of mortality.

RECENT FINDINGS

Increasingly, there are more adult dengue patients who require intensive care. This may be due to a shift in epidemiology of dengue infection from mainly a pediatric disease toward adult disease. In addition, multiorgan dysfunction was observed to be a key risk factor for ICU admission and mortality. This may be due to older adults having preexisting comorbidities that potentially predispose to have multiple severe organ impairment. Interventions remain largely supportive but also require more evidence-based trials and treatment protocols.

SUMMARY

These findings highlight the common clinical manifestations of adult dengue patients and the challenges of clinical management in ICU. Risk factors for prediction of adult dengue patients who require ICU are available, but they lack validation and consistent study design for meta-analysis in future. Early recognition of these risk factors, with close monitoring and prompt clinical management, remains critical to reduce mortality.

Interleukin-6 Levels Act as a Diagnostic Marker for Infection and a Prognostic Marker in Patients with Organ Dysfunction in Intensive Care Units

INTRODUCTION

There are significant unmet requirements for rapid differential diagnosis of infection in patients admitted to intensive care units. Serum levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), procalcitonin (PCT), presepsin, and C-reactive protein (CRP) are measured in clinical practice; however, their clinical utility in patients with organ dysfunction has not been tested adequately. Thus, we investigated the diagnostic and prognostic value of IL-6, PCT, presepsin, and CRP in critically ill patients who had organ dysfunction with suspicion of infection.

METHODS

In 100 consecutive critically ill patients with organ dysfunction and suspected infection, serum levels of IL-6, PCT, presepsin, and CRP were measured upon suspicion of infection and serially every other day up to 7 days (cohort 1). The primary outcome variable was the presence of infections. The diagnostic value of IL-6 was further tested in cohort 2 (n = 72, case-control matched). The secondary outcome variables were the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, serum creatinine levels, and 28-day mortality.

RESULTS

Among the four biomarkers, serum IL-6 levels had the highest area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.824 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.735-0.913) for diagnosing infection in critically ill patients with organ dysfunction and suspected infection in cohort 1 (AUC [95% CI] for the other biomarkers: PCT, 0.813 [0.714-0.911]; CRP, 0.764 [0.645-0.883]; presepsin, 0.681 [0.513-0.849]). In cohort 2, the sensitivity and specificity of IL-6 for diagnosing infection were 0.861 and 0.806, respectively. The presepsin levels were significantly correlated with the SOFA score and serum creatinine levels upon suspicion of infection (r > 0.5), especially serum creatinine levels in the patients without infection (r = 0.789). Serum IL-6 levels were significant predictors of 28-day mortality. The AUC value of serum IL-6 levels for 28-day mortality increased over time; the serum IL-6 levels on Day 7 had the highest AUC value of 0.883 (95% CI, 0.788-0.978) for 28-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

Among serum IL-6, PCT, presepsin, and CRP levels, serum IL-6 levels had the highest diagnostic value for infection. They were also significant predictors of 28-day mortality. Hence, they may improve diagnosis of infection and prediction of 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with organ dysfunction.

Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for postoperative risk stratification of critically ill patients with faecal peritonitis

BACKGROUND

Prognostic scores and models of illness severity are useful both clinically and for research. The aim of this study was to develop two prognostic models for the prediction of long-term (6 months) and 28-day mortality of postoperative critically ill patients with faecal peritonitis (FP).

METHODS

Patients admitted to intensive care units with faecal peritonitis and recruited to the European GenOSept study were divided into a derivation and a geographical validation subset; patients subsequently recruited to the UK GAinS study were used for temporal validation. Using all 50 clinical and laboratory variables available on day 1 of critical care admission, Cox proportional hazards regression was fitted to select variables for inclusion in two prognostic models, using stepwise selection and nonparametric bootstrapping sampling techniques. Using Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC) analysis, the performance of the models was compared to SOFA and APACHE II.

RESULTS

Five variables (age, SOFA score, lowest temperature, highest heart rate, haematocrit) were entered into the prognostic models. The discriminatory performance of the 6-month prognostic model yielded an AuROC 0.81 (95% CI 0.76-0.86), 0.73 (95% CI 0.69-0.78) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.69-0.83) for the derivation, geographic and temporal external validation cohorts, respectively. The 28-day prognostic tool yielded an AuROC 0.82 (95% CI 0.77-0.88), 0.75 (95% CI 0.69-0.80) and 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.87) for the same cohorts. These AuROCs appeared consistently superior to those obtained with the SOFA and APACHE II scores alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The two prognostic models developed for 6-month and 28-day mortality prediction in critically ill septic patients with FP, in the postoperative phase, enhanced the day one SOFA score's predictive utility by adding a few key variables: age, lowest recorded temperature, highest recorded heart rate and haematocrit. External validation of their predictive capability in larger cohorts is needed, before introduction of the proposed scores into clinical practice to inform decision making and the design of clinical trials.

Significance of Serum Procalcitonin Levels in Differential Diagnosis of Pediatric Pneumonia

The objective of this study was to explore the early diagnosis methods of severe pediatric pneumonia. A total of 65 cases hospitalized in pediatric departments and ICU of our hospital because of severe pneumonia were divided into two groups according to pathogen detection. The groups were as follows: 34 cases of bacterial pneumonia, 32 cases of a non-bacterial pneumonia, and 37 cases of healthy children after physical examination in our hospital as the control group. The peripheral blood was sampled from each of the three groups for procalcitonin (PCT). The pediatric PCT level in peripheral blood of the bacterial pneumonia group was significantly higher than that of non-bacterial pneumonia group and the control group. The statistical differences (each at p < 0.01) and the level of pediatric serum PCT in the bacterial pneumonia group before treatment were statistically different from that in the same group after treatment (p < 0.01), while the level of pediatric serum PCT in non-bacterial pneumonia group before treatment was statistical indifferent from that in the same group after treatment (p > 0.01). PCT level in pediatric peripheral blood is an important diagnostic indicator of bacterial infection and a sensitive indicator of distinction between bacterial pneumonia and the non-bacterial pneumonia, thus being of great significance for clinical and differential diagnosis.

COMPARISON OF PATIENTS' ADMISSION, MEAN AND HIGHEST SOFA SCORES IN PREDICTION OF ICU MORTALITY: A PROSPECTIVE OBSERVATIONAL STUDY

Background:

Use of valid criteria for evaluation of patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) is essential to assess the quality of services provided. This study was conducted to evaluate admission, mean and the highest Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores in predicting mortality and outcome of patients admitted to the ICU.

Methods:

This prospective observational study was conducted on 300 patients admitted to the ICU of Imam Khomeini Hospital, Sari, Iran, in 2015. The SOFA tool was applied at the beginning of the admission of patients in the ICU and then every 24 hours. Functions of six vital organs were recorded on a daily basis for scoring with SOFA. Demographic profile, the main diagnosis leading to hospitalization in the ICU, previous interventions, complications and hospital outcomes were recorded for each patient. The patients’ admission, mean and highest SOFA scores were also evaluated and recorded during the study period. These scores were compared between deceased and survived patients. ROC curve determined the best cut-off point of score calculated.

Results:

Among all 300 patients who were enrolled in the study, 189 (63%) cases were males. Trauma was the most common cause of hospitalization and mortality. Thirty point seven percent of 92 deceased patients needed to intubation. Mean length of ICU and hospital stay were significantly longer for deceased patients than the survivors (P <0.001). The admission, mean and highest SOFA scores were 11.72, 16.38 and 16.45 in deceased patients, as well as 6.52, 5.82 and 6.5 in survived patients, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) for the admission, mean and highest SOFA scores were 0.875, 0.988 and 0982, respectively. All three models were able to predict the outcome of patients significantly (P <0.0001). The cut-off point of 10.6 for the mean SOFA had the highest sensitivity and specificity in predicting mortality.

Conclusion:

The results of this study showed that the mean SOFA score had the highest sensitivity and specificity in prediction of ICU mortality. Therefore, this criterion is a valuable indicator to better predictions of mortality and morbidity rate in the ICU patients, which can lead to appropriate health care and therapeutic interventions in these patients.

Observational study of the effects of traumatic injury, haemorrhagic shock and resuscitation on the microcirculation: a protocol for the MICROSHOCK study

INTRODUCTION

The microcirculation is the physiological site of oxygen and substrate exchange. Its effectiveness during circulatory shock is vital for the perfusion of tissues, and has a bearing on subsequent organ function and prognosis. Microcirculatory dysfunction following traumatic haemorrhagic shock (THS) has been understudied compared with other pathologies such as sepsis. The aim of the MICROSHOCK study is to investigate changes seen in the microcirculation of patients following THS, and to assess its response to resuscitation. A greater understanding of the behaviour and mechanisms of microcirculatory dysfunction in this context may direct future avenues of goal-directed resuscitation for these patients.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This multicentre prospective longitudinal observational study includes patients who present as an emergency with THS. Microcirculatory parameters are recorded using sublingual incident dark field microscopy alongside measurements of global flow (oesophageal Doppler and transthoracic echocardiography). Patients are enrolled into the study as soon as feasible after they arrive in hospital, and then at subsequent daily time points. Blood samples are taken for investigation into the mechanisms of microcirculatory dysfunction. Sequential Organ Failure Assessment scores will be analysed with microcirculatory parameters to determine whether they correlate with greater fidelity than more conventional, global circulatory parameters.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Research Ethics Committee approval has been granted for this study (Reference: 14/YH/0078). Owing to the nature of THS, capacity for informed consent will be absent on patient enrolment. This will be addressed according to the Mental Health Capacity Act 2005. The physician in charge of the patient's care (nominated consultee) may consent on behalf of the patient. Consent will also be sought from a personal consultee (close relative or friend). After capacity is regained, the participant will be asked for their consent. Results will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journal format and presented at relevant academic meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02111109; Pre-results.

Procalcitonin concentrations as a predictor of unexpected readmission and mortality after intensive care unit discharge: A retrospective cohort study

Procalcitonin (PCT) has been used to guide treatment in critically ill patients with sepsis, but whether PCT at intensive care unit (ICU) discharge can stratify risks of post-ICU readmission or mortality is unknown. This cohort study compared the ability of PCT with C-reactive protein (CRP) in predicting unexpected adverse post-ICU events. Of the 1877 patients admitted to the multidisciplinary ICU between 1 April 2012 and 31 March 2014, 1653 (88.1%) were discharged without treatment limitations. A total of 71 (4.3%) were readmitted and 18 patients (1%) died unexpectedly after ICU discharge during the same hospitalization. Both PCT (0.6 vs 0.4 μg/L, P = .002) and a high CRP concentration >100 mg/L (58% vs 41%, P = .004) at ICU discharge were associated with an increased risk of adverse post-ICU events in the univariate analyses; however, the ability of PCT to discriminate between patients with and without adverse post-ICU outcomes was limited (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.55-0.66). In the multivariable analysis, only a high CRP concentration (odds ratio, 1.92; 95% confidence interval, 1.12-3.11; P = .008) was associated with an increased adverse post-ICU events. Elevated PCT concentration at ICU discharge was inadequate in its predictive ability to guide ICU discharge.

Framework for decision-making and management of end-of-life decisions in Intensive Care Units: A modified protocol

End-of-life decisions are being made daily in Intensive Care Units worldwide. The spectrum of options varies from full-continued care, withholding treatment, withdrawing treatment, and active life-ending procedures depending on the institutional practices and legal framework. Considering the complexity of the situation and the legalities involved, it is important to have a structured approach toward these sensitive decisions. It does make sense to have a protocol that ensures proper documentation and helps ease the physicians involved in such decisions. Clear documentation in the format of a checklist would ensure consistency and help the entire medical team to be uniformly informed about the end-of-life plan.

Association between trends in clinical variables and outcome in intensive care patients with faecal peritonitis: analysis of the GenOSept cohort

Introduction

Patients admitted to intensive care following surgery for faecal peritonitis present particular challenges in terms of clinical management and risk assessment. Collaborating surgical and intensive care teams need shared perspectives on prognosis. We aimed to determine the relationship between dynamic assessment of trends in selected variables and outcomes.

Methods

We analysed trends in physiological and laboratory variables during the first week of intensive care unit (ICU) stay in 977 patients at 102 centres across 16 European countries. The primary outcome was 6-month mortality. Secondary endpoints were ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality. For each trend, Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex, were performed for each endpoint.

Results

Trends over the first 7 days of the ICU stay independently associated with 6-month mortality were worsening thrombocytopaenia (mortality: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.02; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.01 to 1.03; P <0.001) and renal function (total daily urine output: HR =1.02; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.03; P <0.001; Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) renal subscore: HR = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.99; P = 0.047), maximum bilirubin level (HR = 0.99; 95% CI, 0.99 to 0.99; P = 0.02) and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) SOFA subscore (HR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.98; P = 0.028). Changes in renal function (total daily urine output and renal component of the SOFA score), GCS component of the SOFA score, total SOFA score and worsening thrombocytopaenia were also independently associated with secondary outcomes (ICU, hospital and 28-day mortality). We detected the same pattern when we analysed trends on days 2, 3 and 5. Dynamic trends in all other measured laboratory and physiological variables, and in radiological findings, changes inrespiratory support, renal replacement therapy and inotrope and/or vasopressor requirements failed to be retained as independently associated with outcome in multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

Only deterioration in renal function, thrombocytopaenia and SOFA score over the first 2, 3, 5 and 7 days of the ICU stay were consistently associated with mortality at all endpoints. These findings may help to inform clinical decision making in patients with this common cause of critical illness.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-015-0931-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.