Will Passive Protection Save Congo Forests?

Impacts of Deforestation on Childhood Malaria Depend on Wealth and Vector Biology

Ecosystem change can profoundly affect human well-being and health, including through changes in exposure to vector-borne diseases. Deforestation has increased human exposure to mosquito vectors and malaria risk in Africa, but there is little understanding of how socioeconomic and ecological factors influence the relationship between deforestation and malaria risk. We examined these interrelationships in six sub-Saharan African countries using demographic and health survey data linked to remotely sensed environmental variables for 11,746 children under 5 years old. We found that the relationship between deforestation and malaria prevalence varies by wealth levels. Deforestation is associated with increased malaria prevalence in the poorest households, but there was not significantly increased malaria prevalence in the richest households, suggesting that deforestation has disproportionate negative health impacts on the poor. In poorer households, malaria prevalence was 27%-33% larger for one standard deviation increase in deforestation across urban and rural populations. Deforestation is also associated with increased malaria prevalence in regions where Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus are dominant vectors, but not in areas of Anopheles arabiensis. These findings indicate that deforestation is an important driver of malaria risk among the world's most vulnerable children, and its impact depends critically on often-overlooked social and biological factors. An in-depth understanding of the links between ecosystems and human health is crucial in designing conservation policies that benefit people and the environment.

Community evaluation of forest and REDD+ governance quality in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has over 100 million Ha of forest and has significant potential to benefit from these forests, including through REDD+ if they are managed effectively. Effective governance of forest landscapes is essential for environmental management and equitable harnessing of ecosystem service benefits for communities. Poor governance, political instability, and capacity limitations in the DRC are widely highlighted. However, there have been few, if any, attempts to evaluate forest governance in the DRC, especially at the community level. This paper reports a community-level evaluation of forest governance in the DRC, using a survey method. The results suggest that REDD+ projects have the ability to improve forest governance as perceived by the community. The research shows that building the right capacity, consulting and accessing the needs of the community and building long-term projects and partnerships a key success factors. These findings and the novel approach to supporting communities to evaluate their governance are applicable to similar community-level forest governance contexts.

Comparing Community Needs and REDD+ Activities for Capacity Building and Forest Protection in the Équateur Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo

Primary forests are essential ecosystems that can play a key role in mitigating climate change. REDD+ is designed to help countries and communities secure benefits for avoiding deforestation but has faced significant implementation challenges. There are substantial potential benefits for REDD+ in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where shifting agriculture is the major cause of deforestation. However, implementation requires significant capacity building in a number of sectors and at a number of levels. This paper explores how well the capacity building activities within the DRC REDD+ strategy are aligned with the capacity needs identified by provincial government stakeholders and local communities in the Équateur province of the DRC, identified through workshops and surveys. The research suggests that while many technical capacity needs identified by stakeholders could be potentially addressed by the REDD+ strategy, there are number of systemic capacity needs that are unlikely to be addressed. Failure to address these needs risks undermining any implementation of REDD+. The results suggest that education and training in governance and management, as well as fundamental education in sustainability, are key capacity needs that REDD+ may need to incorporate. The results also provide further evidence that REDD+ projects need to be long-term and take into account the local context and needs in order to be effective.

Changes in Species and Functional Diversity of the Herb Layer of Riparian Forest despite Six Decades of Strict Protection

The herb layer of temperate forests contributes to long-term forest ecosystem functioning and provisioning of ecosystem services. Therefore, a thorough understanding of its dynamics in the face of environmental changes is essential. This paper focuses on the species and functional diversity of the herb layer of riparian forests to verify how these two community components changed over time and under strict protection. The understory vegetation was surveyed on 42 semi-permanent plots in three time periods between 1960 and 2020. The overall pattern in vegetation changes that related to species richness and diversity, functional structure, and habitat conditions was analyzed using ordination and permutation techniques. We found significant changes in species composition and the functional structure of herbaceous vegetation over the last six decades. Forests were enriched with nutrient-demanding and alien species. A significant increase in functional diversity and the proportion of species with high SLA and canopy height was also observed, whereas changes in habitat conditions were insignificant. The observed trends indicate that the strict protection of forest communities within small and isolated reserves does not fully protect their species composition. Forest reserves should be surrounded by unmanaged forests and spatially connected to allow species mobility.

Diversity and diel activity patterns of terrestrial mammals in the Nkuba Conservation Area, Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Congo basin forests have vast conservation potential but because of their inaccessibility and periodic insecurity there is little formal protection or ecological research occurring there. Community-based conservation efforts in the unprotected forest corridor separating Kahuzi-Biega and Maiko National Parks in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo aim to protect a unique forest ecosystem and facilitate the development of ecological research. To support this process, we obtained baseline data on the occurrence of terrestrial mammals in the Nkuba Conservation Area by conducting camera-trap (2014–2018) and transect (2013–2018) surveys. From camera-trap images we also extracted diel activity patterns and estimated overlap in these patterns between selected pairs of species. We identified 29 mammal species weighing > 1 kg using camera traps and 22 species in transect surveys, with a total of 33 mammal species, of which seven are categorized as threatened on the IUCN Red List. Among this mammalian community, we recorded nocturnal and diurnal species with short core activity periods, and several cathemeral species with long activity periods, with various degrees of temporal separation of diel activity between species. The presence of threatened species, including the Critically Endangered Grauer's gorilla Gorilla beringei graueri, suggests that the Nkuba Conservation Area harbours a forest community that requires continuous monitoring, further research and investment in protection from the ongoing deforestation and resource exploitation occurring in the surrounding region.

Determining a Carbon Reference Level for a High-Forest-Low-Deforestation Country

Research Highlights: A transparent approach to developing a forest reference emissions level (FREL) adjusted to future local developments in Southern Cameroon is demonstrated. Background and Objectives: Countries with low historical deforestation can adjust their forest reference (emission) level (FREL/FRL) upwards for REDD+ to account for likely future developments. Many countries, however, find it difficult to establish a credible adjusted reference level. This article demonstrates the establishment of a FREL for southern Cameroon adjusted to societal megatrends of strong population—and economic growth combined with rapid urbanization. It demonstrates what can be done with available information and data, but most importantly outlines pathways to further improve the quality of future FREL/FRL’s in light of possibly accessing performance-based payments. Materials and Methods: The virtual FREL encompasses three main elements: Remotely sensed activity data; emission factors derived from the national forest inventory; and the adjustment of the reference level using a land use model of the agriculture sector. Sensitivity analysis is performed on all three elements using Monte Carlo methods. Results: Deforestation during the virtual reference period 2000–2015 is dominated by non-industrial agriculture (comprising both smallholders and local elites) and increases over time. The land use model projections are consistent with this trend, resulting in emissions that are on average 47% higher during the virtual performance period 2020–2030 than during the reference period 2000–2015. Monte Carlo analysis points to the adjustment term as the main driver of uncertainty in the FREL calculation. Conclusions: The available data is suitable for constructing a FREL for periodic reporting to the UNFCCC. Enhanced coherence of input data notably for activity data and adjustment is needed to apply for a performance-based payment scheme. Expanding the accounting framework to include forest degradation and forest gain are further priorities requiring future research.

Spatial near future modeling of land use and land cover changes in the temperate forests of Mexico

The loss of temperate forests of Mexico has continued in recent decades despite wide recognition of their importance to maintaining biodiversity. This study analyzes land use/land cover change scenarios, using satellite images from the Landsat sensor. Images corresponded to the years 1990, 2005 and 2017. The scenarios were applied for the temperate forests with the aim of getting a better understanding of the patterns in land use/land cover changes. The Support Vector Machine (SVM) multispectral classification technique served to determine the land use/land cover types, which were validated through the Kappa Index. For the simulation of land use/land cover dynamics, a model developed in Dinamica-EGO was used, which uses stochastic models of Markov Chains, Cellular Automata and Weight of Evidences. For the study, a stationary, an optimistic and a pessimistic scenario were proposed. The projections based on the three scenarios were simulated for the year 2050. Five types of land use/land cover were identified and evaluated. They were primary forest, secondary forest, human settlements, areas without vegetation and water bodies. Results from the land use/land cover change analysis show a substantial gain for the secondary forest. The surface area of the primary forest was reduced from 55.8% in 1990 to 37.7% in 2017. Moreover, the three projected scenarios estimate further losses of the surface are for the primary forest, especially under the stationary and pessimistic scenarios. This highlights the importance and probably urgent implementation of conservation and protection measures to preserve these ecosystems and their services. Based on the accuracy obtained and on the models generated, results from these methodologies can serve as a decision tool to contribute to the sustainable management of the natural resources of a region.

Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets

Agricultural expansion is a leading driver of biodiversity loss across the world, but little is known on how future land-use change may encroach on remaining natural vegetation. This uncertainty is, in part, due to unknown levels of future agricultural intensification and international trade. Using an economic land-use model, we assessed potential future losses of natural vegetation with a focus on how these may threaten biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. We analysed agricultural expansion under proactive and reactive biodiversity protection scenarios, and for different rates of pasture intensification. We found growing food demand to lead to a significant expansion of cropland at the expense of pastures and natural vegetation. In our reference scenario, global cropland area increased by more than 400 Mha between 2015 and 2050, mostly in Africa and Latin America. Grazing intensification was a main determinant of future land-use change. In Africa, higher rates of pasture intensification resulted in smaller losses of natural vegetation, and reduced pressure on biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. Investments into raising pasture productivity in conjunction with proactive land-use planning appear essential in Africa to reduce further losses of areas with high conservation value. In Latin America, in contrast, higher pasture productivity resulted in increased livestock exports, highlighting that unchecked trade can reduce the land savings of pasture intensification. Reactive protection of sensitive areas significantly reduced the conversion of natural ecosystems in Latin America. We conclude that protection strategies need to adapt to region-specific trade positions. In regions with a high involvement in international trade, area-based conservation measures should be preferred over strategies aimed at increasing pasture productivity, which by themselves might not be sufficient to protect biodiversity effectively.