Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions

Specialist Herbivore Performance on Introduced Plants During Native Host Decline

Ash (Fraxinus spp.) is in rapid decline across the northeastern USA due to the invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire). Three recently co-occurring confamilial species may serve as alternative larval host plants for ash-reliant Lepidoptera. These prospective hosts are nonnative shrubs often planted in managed suburban landscapes and are sometimes invasive or naturalized in North America. Given the imminent decline of ash trees, we considered potential downstream effects on insect herbivores historically specialized on ash foliage. We measured the performance of three ash-specialist hawkmoths (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae) on native white ash (Fraxinus americana L.) and alternative host plants: common lilac (Syringa vulgaris L.), weeping forsythia [Forsythia suspensa (Thunb.) Vahl], and European privet (Ligustrum vulgare L.). We found the nonnative host plants provided varied support for larval survival to pupation, with biomass and growth rate affected differently by both plant and insect identity. Nearly all caterpillars reared on one alternative host, European privet, exhibited distinct malformations of the wing buds at pupation. Given caterpillar presence on privet in the field, privet may constitute an ecological trap (i.e., when female moths select a sub-optimal host, offspring survival and fitness are reduced). This work demonstrates how performance testing can reveal species-specific effects of host plant loss on mono- or oligophagous insects. For some ash specialists, alternative nonnative host plants may be suboptimal, but some cultivated host plants may be able to support certain specialist insects during native host decline. We suggest that landscaping decisions can be tailored to support threatened insect species.

Combining bulk stable H isotope (δ2H) measurements with fatty acid profiles to examine differential use of aquatic vs. terrestrial prey by three sympatric species of aerial insectivorous birds

Aerial insectivorous songbirds such as swallows and martins have declined substantially in North America in recent decades. Aquatic-emergent insects provide more beneficial omega-3 fatty acids than terrestrial insects, and thus, diet quality is expected to vary among aerial insectivores with differential access to aquatic-emergent insects. We compared the stable hydrogen isotope (δ2H) values of feathers and bulk blood plasma fatty acids of nestling purple martins (Progne subis), tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), and barn swallows (Hirundo rustica), at lakeshore and inland sites near Lake Erie, Ontario, Canada. We found that diet quality differed between inland and lakeshore nesting habitats, but differences depended on species. Overall, purple martin and tree swallow nestlings had lower feather δ2H values, indicating a more aquatic-emergent diet, and lakeshore populations of both species had higher omega-3 fatty acid levels in their blood plasma compared to inland populations. Conversely, higher plasma levels of omega-6 fatty acids were found in inland birds. Tree swallows have a low omega-3 conversion efficiency from precursor substrates and so depend on aquatic subsidies to fulfill their nutritional needs. We suggest this may also be the case with purple martins. Barn swallows had the most positive feather δ2H values, regardless of proximity to the lakeshore, indicating a more terrestrial diet. However, barn swallow nestlings had consistently higher plasma omega-3 docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) regardless of nesting location, suggesting that barn swallows can efficiently convert omega-3 precursors into their beneficial elongated fatty acid chains. Our study indicates the benefit of combining plasma fatty acid compositional analyses with bulk feather δ2H values to decipher interspecific differences in adaptations to availability of aquatic-emergent insects.

Annual adult survival rates for four sympatric breeding swallow species: effects of environmental factors and density-dependence

Swallow (Family: Hirundinidae) populations in the Canadian Maritimes have declined since the 1980s. Using mark-recapture data from 2012–2019, we determined apparent annual adult survival rates for Barn Hirundo rustica Linnaeus, 1758, Tree Tachycineta bicolor Vieillot, 1808, Bank Riparia riparia Linnaeus, 1758, and Cliff swallows Petrochelidon pyrrhonota Vieillot, 1817. For two data-rich species (Barn and Tree swallows), we modelled the relationships between survival and weather (cold snaps, precipitation, temperature, and wind speed); climate (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)); Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as a measure of primary productivity during the winter; number of active nests as a measure of site quality; and the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) annual population index as density dependent processes. Survival rates for all four species were typically higher (Barn and Tree) or similar to (Cliff and Bank) of estimates from populations that have not undergone severe, long-term declines. Across weather and climate variables, conditions that are typically favourable for high insect availability (e.g., higher precipitation, warmer temperatures and lower wind speeds) resulted in higher survival. For female Barn and Tree Swallows, survival was higher when EVI was lower, and for Barn Swallows, survival was also higher when the BBS index was higher. Collectively our results demonstrate that conditions throughout the annual cycle affect survival, and the relationships with weather and climate variables support the importance of high insect availability

Effects of turbine height and cut-in speed on bat and swallow fatalities at wind energy facilities

Understanding the relationship between the height of wind turbines and wildlife fatalities is important for informing and mitigating wildlife collisions as ever taller and denser arrays of wind turbines are erected across the landscape. We examined relationships between turbine height and fatalities of bats and swallows at 811 turbines in Ontario, Canada, ranging from 119 to 186 m tall. We accounted for cut-in speeds, operational mitigation, and taller turbines projecting carcasses farther from the turbine base than shorter turbines. Fatalities of hoary bats ( Lasiurus cinereus Palisot de Beauvois, 1796), silver-haired bats ( Lasionycteris noctivagans Le Conte, 1831), and big brown bats ( Eptesicus fuscus Palisot de Beauvois, 1796) increased with increased maximum blade height of turbines. In contrast, fatalities of little brown bat ( Myotis lucifugus Le Conte, 1831) and eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis Müller, 1776) decreased with increased turbine height. Fatalities of purple martins ( Progne subis Linnaeus, 1758) and tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor Vieillot, 1808) were higher at taller turbines than shorter turbines. However, fatalities of cliff swallow ( Petrochelidon pyrrhonota Vieillot, 1817) and barn swallow ( Hirundo rustica Linnaeus, 1758) were not associated with turbine height. Our results suggest that varying flight height among species may be one factor affecting collision risk.

Shifting trends: Detecting changes in cetacean population dynamics in shifting habitat

The ability to monitor population dynamics and detect major changes in population trend is essential for wildlife conservation and management. However, this is often challenging for cetaceans as surveys typically cover only a portion of a population’s range and conventional stock assessment methods cannot then distinguish whether apparent changes in abundance reflect real changes in population size or shifts in distribution. We developed and tested methods for estimating population size and trend and detecting changes in population trend in the context of shifting habitat by integrating additional data into distance-sampling analysis. Previous research has shown that incorporating habitat information can improve population size estimates for highly mobile species with dynamic spatial distributions. Here, using simulated datasets representative of a large whale population, we demonstrate that incorporating individual mark-recapture data can increase the accuracy and precision of trend estimation and the power to distinguish whether apparent changes in abundance reflect changes in population trend or distribution shifts. We recommend that similar simulation studies are conducted for specific cetacean populations to assess the potential for detecting changes in population dynamics given available data. This approach is especially important wherever population change may be confounded with long-term change in distribution patterns associated with regime shifts or climate change.

Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)

To halt ongoing loss in biodiversity, there is a need for landscape-level management recommendations that address cumulative impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on wildlife habitat. We examined the cumulative effects of logging, roads, land-use change, fire, and bark beetle outbreaks on future habitat for olive-sided flycatcher (Contopus cooperi), a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, in Canada’s western boreal forest. To predict the occurrence of olive-sided flycatcher we developed a suite of habitat suitability models using point count surveys (1997–2011) spatially- and temporally-matched with forest inventory data. Flycatcher occurrence was positively associated with small (∼10 ha) 10- to 20-year-old clearcuts, and with 10–100% tree mortality due to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, but we found no association with roads or distance to water. We used the parameter estimates from the best-fit habitat suitability models to inform spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models to project change in habitat availability from 2020 to 2050 under six alternative scenarios (three management × two fire alternatives). The simulation models projected that the cumulative effects of land use conversion, forest harvesting, and fire will reduce the area of olive-sided flycatcher habitat by 16–18% under Business As Usual management scenarios and by 11–13% under scenarios that include protection of 30% of the land base. Scenarios limiting the size of all clearcuts to ≤10 ha resulted in a median habitat loss of 4–6%, but projections were highly variable. Under all three management alternatives, a 50% increase in fire frequency (expected due to climate change) exacerbated habitat loss. The projected losses of habitat in western boreal forest, even with an increase in protected areas, imply that reversing the ongoing population declines of olive-sided flycatcher and other migratory birds will require attention to forest management beyond protected areas. Further work should examine the effects of multiple stressors on the demographic mechanisms driving change in aerial insectivore populations, including stressors on the wintering grounds in South America, and should aim to adapt the design of protected areas and forest management policies to projected climate-driven increases in the size and frequency of wildfires.

Agricultural pesticides and ectoparasites: potential combined effects on the physiology of a declining aerial insectivore

Agricultural pesticides usage has been increasing globally. These compounds have been developed to disrupt pest species physiology, but because their specificity is limited, they can also have adverse effects on non-target organisms. Recent studies have shown that the damaging toxicological effects of pesticides can be amplified in stressful environments. However, few studies have documented these effects in natural settings where organisms are simultaneously exposed to pesticides and to other environmental stressors such as parasites. In this study, we assessed both pesticide and ectoparasite effects on the physiology of a free-ranging bird. We measured physiological markers including haematocrit, bacteria-killing ability (BKA) and leucocyte counts, as well as exposure to haematophagous Protocalliphora larvae, in tree swallow nestlings (Tachycineta bicolor), a declining aerial insectivore, in southern Québec, Canada, for over 3 years. We found that combined exposure to pesticides and Protocalliphora larvae was negatively related to haematocrit, suggesting possible synergistic effects. However, we found no such relationships with BKA and leucocyte counts, highlighting the complexity of physiological responses to multiple stressors in natural settings. Populations of several aerial insectivores are declining, and although sublethal pesticide effects on physiology are suspected, our results suggest that exposure to other factors, such as parasitism, should also be considered to fully assess these effects, especially because pesticides are increasingly present in the environment.

Conservation Across Aquatic-Terrestrial Boundaries: Linking Continental-Scale Water Quality to Emergent Aquatic Insects and Declining Aerial Insectivorous Birds

Larval aquatic insects are used to assess water quality, but less attention is paid to their adult, terrestrial life stage, which is an important food resource for declining aerial insectivorous birds. We used open-access water-quality, aquatic-invertebrate, and bird-survey data to study how impaired water quality can emanate from streams and lakes through changes in aquatic insect communities across the contiguous United States. Emergent insect relative abundance was highest across the West, in northern New England, and the Carolinas in streams, and highest near the Great Lakes, parts of the Southwest, and northern New England for lakes. Emergent insects declined with sedimentation, roads, and elevated ammonium concentrations in streams, but not lakes. The odds that a given taxon would be non-emergent increased by up to 2.0× as a function of pollution tolerance, underscoring the sensitivity of emergent aquatic insects to water-quality impairment. However, relationships between bird populations and emergent insects were generally weak for both streams and lakes. For streams, we observed the strongest positive relationships for a mixture of upland and riparian aerial insectivorous birds such as Western Wood-Pewee, Olive-sided Flycatcher, and Acadian Flycatcher and the strongest negative association for Purple Martin. Different avian insectivores responded to emergent insect abundances in lakes (e.g., Barn Swallow, Chimney Swift, Eastern Wood-Pewee, Common Nighthawk). In both streams and lakes, we observed stronger, but opposing, relationships between several aerial insectivores and the relative abundance of sensitive insect orders (E)phemeroptera, (P)lecoptera, and (T)richoptera (positive), and pollution tolerant individuals (negative). Overall, our findings indicate that emergent insects are negatively correlated with pollution tolerance, suggesting a large-scale loss of this nutritional subsidy to terrestrial environments from impaired aquatic ecosystems. While some bird populations tracked scarcities of emergent aquatic insects, especially EPT taxa, responses varied among species, suggesting that unique habitat and foraging behaviors likely complicated these relationships. Strengthening spatial and temporal concordance between emergent-insect and bird-survey data will improve our ability to interpret species-level responses over time. Thus, our analysis highlights the need for developing conservation and biomonitoring strategies that consider the cross-ecosystem effects of water quality declines for threatened insectivorous avifauna and other terrestrial wildlife.

Nutritional consequences of breeding away from riparian habitats in Bank Swallows: new evidence from multiple endogenous markers

The Bank Swallow (Riparia riparia), a threatened species in Canada, breeds primarily in banks at lakeshores and rivers and in artificial (typically inland) aggregate mining pits. Inland pits may be ecological traps for this species, but relative dietary trade-offs between these two nesting habitats have not been investigated. The availability of aquatic emergent insects at lakeshores may have associated nutritional benefits for growing nestlings due to increased omega-3 fatty acids (FAs) in prey. We compared the diets of juvenile swallows from lakeshore and inland pit sites using assays of stable isotope values (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, δ²H) of feathers, faecal DNA metabarcoding and blood plasma FAs. Colony proximity to Lake Erie influenced the use of aquatic versus terrestrial insects by Bank Swallow adults and juveniles. Feather δ²H was particularly useful as a tracer of aquatic emergent versus terrestrial prey, and inland juveniles had feathers enriched in ²H, reflective of diets composed of fewer aquatic emergent insects. DNA metabarcoding of juvenile and adult faecal material indicated that lakeshore birds consumed more aquatic-emergent chironomids than inland birds. Lakeshore juveniles had elevated plasma omega-3 eicosapentaenoic acid levels compared with inland pit-breeding birds. We discuss the need to consider 'nutritional landscapes' and the importance of this concept in conservation of declining species and populations.

DNA diet profiles with high-resolution animal tracking data reveal levels of prey selection relative to habitat choice in a crepuscular insectivorous bird

Given the global decline of many invertebrate food resources, it is fundamental to understand the dietary requirements of insectivores. We give new insights into the functional relationship between the spatial habitat use, food availability, and diet of a crepuscular aerial insectivore, the European Nightjar (Caprimulgus europaeus) by relating spatial use data with high-throughput sequencing (HTS) combined with DNA metabarcoding. Our study supports the predictions that nightjars collect a substantial part of their daily nourishment from foraging locations, sometimes at considerable distance from nesting sites. Lepidopterans comprise 65% of nightjars' food source. Nightjars tend to select larger species of Lepidoptera (>19 mm) which suggests that nightjars optimize the efficiency of foraging trips by selecting the most energetically favorable-larger-prey items. We anticipate that our findings may shed additional light on the interactions between invertebrate communities and higher trophic levels, which is required to understand the repercussions of changing food resources on individual- and population-level processes.

Mercury exposure to swallows breeding in Canada inferred from feathers grown on breeding and non-breeding grounds

Aerial insectivorous birds such as swallows have been the steepest declining groups of birds in North America over the last 50 years but whether such declines are linked to contaminants has not been examined. We sampled feathers from five species of swallow at multiple locations to assess total mercury [THg] exposure for adults during the non-breeding season, and for juveniles on the breeding grounds. We assessed Hg exposure to juvenile birds in crop- and grass-dominated landscapes to determine if land-use practices influenced feather [THg]. We assayed feathers for stable isotopes (δ²H, δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) as proxies for relative habitat use and diet to determine their potential influence on feather [THg]. Feather [THg] was highest in adult bank swallows (Riparia riparia) and purple martins (Progne subis) from Saskatchewan and adult cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) from western regions, indicating differential exposure to Hg on the non-breeding grounds. Juvenile bank, barn (Hirundo rustica) and tree (Tachycineta bicolor) swallows had lower feather [THg] in crop-dominated landscapes than grass-dominated landscapes in Saskatchewan, potentially resulting from lower use of wetland-derived insects due to wetland drainage and intensive agriculture. Feather [THg] was related to juvenile feather stable isotopes for several species, suggesting complex interactions with diet and environmental factors. Many individuals had feather [THg] values >2 µg/g, a threshold at which deleterious effects may occur. Our findings indicate differential Hg exposure among species of swallow, regions and land-uses and highlight the need for additional research to determine dietary and finer-scale land-use impacts on individual species and populations.

Rainy springs linked to poor nestling growth in a declining avian aerial insectivore ( Tachycineta bicolor)

As species shift their ranges and phenology to cope with climate change, many are left without a ready supply of their preferred food source during critical life stages. Food shortages are often assumed to be driven by reduced total food abundance, but here we propose that climate change may cause short-term food shortages for foraging specialists without affecting overall food availability. We frame this hypothesis around the special case of birds that forage on flying insects for whom effects mediated by their shared food resource have been proposed to cause avian aerial insectivores' decline worldwide. Flying insects are inactive during cold, wet or windy conditions, effectively reducing food availability to zero even if insect abundance remains otherwise unchanged. Using long-term monitoring data from a declining population of tree swallows ( Tachycineta bicolor), we show that nestlings' body mass declined substantially from 1977 to 2017. In 2017, nestlings had lower body mass if it rained during the preceding 3 days, though females increased provisioning rates, potentially in an attempt to compensate. Adult body mass, particularly that of the males, has also declined over the long-term study. Mean rainfall during the nestling period has increased by 9.3 ± 0.3 mm decade^-1, potentially explaining declining nestling body mass and population declines. Therefore, we suggest that reduced food availability, distinct from food abundance, may be an important and previously overlooked consequence of climate change, which could be affecting populations of species that specialize on foraging on flying insects.

Population decline in tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) linked to climate change and inclement weather on the breeding ground

Population decline and the threat of extinction are realities currently facing many species. Yet, in most cases, the detailed demographic data necessary to identify causes of population decline are unavailable. Using 43 years (1975-2017) of data from a box-nesting population of tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor), we identified reduced survival of offspring as a probable demographic cause of population decline. Poor fledging success was associated with increased predation and poor weather conditions during early nestling development. Low juvenile survival and subsequent recruitment was linked to poor weather conditions during the post-fledging period and may also be linked to conditions on the wintering grounds. Regional weather conditions during critical stages of breeding (early nestling and post-fledging) have become progressively worse over the 43-year study period. None of the other factors linked to offspring survival have similarly deteriorated. Overall, our results suggest tree swallows should be added to the growing list of species challenged by climate change, and that other species of aerial insect specialists may face similar impacts of climate change.

Temporal changes in avian community composition in lowland conifer habitats at the southern edge of the boreal zone in the Adirondack Park, NY

Climate change represents one of the most significant threats to human and wildlife communities on the planet. Populations at range margins or transitions between biomes can be particularly instructive for observing changes in biological communities that may be driven by climate change. Avian communities in lowland boreal habitats in the Adirondack Park, located at the North American boreal-temperate ecotone, have been the focus of long-term monitoring efforts since 2007. By documenting long-term changes in community structure and composition, such datasets provide an opportunity to understand how boreal species are responding differently to climate change, and which habitat characteristics may be best able to retain boreal avian communities. We examined three specific questions in order to address how well current biological communities in Adirondack boreal wetland habitats are being maintained in a changing climate: (1) how do trends in occupancy vary across species, and what guilds or characteristics are associated with increasing or decreasing occupancy? (2) how is avian community composition changing differently across sites, and (3) what distinguishes sites which are retaining boreal birds to a higher degree than other sites? Our analysis revealed that (1) boreal species appear to exhibit the largest changes in occupancy among our study locations as compared to the larger avian community, (2) dynamics of community change are not uniform across sites and habitat structure may play an important role in driving observed changes, and (3) the particular characteristics of large open peatlands may allow them to serve as refugia for boreal species in the context of climate change.

A spatially varying change points model for monitoring glaucoma progression using visual field data

Glaucoma disease progression, as measured by visual field (VF) data, is often defined by periods of relative stability followed by an abrupt decrease in visual ability at some point in time. Determining the transition point of the disease trajectory to a more severe state is important clinically for disease management and for avoiding irreversible vision loss. Based on this, we present a unified statistical modeling framework that permits prediction of the timing and spatial location of future vision loss and informs clinical decisions regarding disease progression. The developed method incorporates anatomical information to create a biologically plausible data-generating model. We accomplish this by introducing a spatially varying coefficients model that includes spatially varying change points to detect structural shifts in both the mean and variance process of VF data across both space and time. The VF location-specific change point represents the underlying, and potentially censored, timing of true change in disease trajectory while a multivariate spatial boundary detection structure is introduced that accounts for the complex spatial connectivity of the VF and optic disc. We show that our method improves estimation and prediction of multiple aspects of disease management in comparison to existing methods through simulation and real data application. The R package spCP implements the new methodology.

First full annual cycle tracking of a declining aerial insectivorous bird, the Common Nighthawk (Chordeiles minor), identifies migration routes, nonbreeding habitat, and breeding site fidelity

Over one third of North American bird species are in decline, and for many species, we still lack fundamental biogeographic information such as migration routes and nonbreeding areas. Identifying causes of declines is limited because tracking many species throughout their annual cycle with high precision and accuracy is challenging. Common Nighthawks (Chordeiles minor (J.R. Forster, 1771)) have declined throughout much of their range and have yet to have their migratory and nonbreeding areas identified and characterized. We tracked Common Nighthawks by deploying a new 3.5 g Pinpoint GPS-Argos tag on adult males. Seven of 10 (70%) tags uploaded locations, providing the first data on migration, nonbreeding habitat, and annual site fidelity to breeding areas. Birds used similar loop migration routes and overwintered in Brazil’s Cerrado and Amazon regions. Nonbreeding season roosting home ranges were 148.22 ± 121 ha (mean ± SE) and included forest, grassland, and cropland. Breeding home-range fidelity was high; all tracked birds returned to within 1.27 ± 0.27 km of original capture locations. Our study is the first tracking of Common Nighthawks throughout their full annual cycle. Continued miniaturization of tracking technology, like the GPS-Argos transmitters used, is critical for identifying the causes of population declines of previously enigmatic migratory species.