Geo-Referenced, Abundance Calibrated Ocean Distribution of Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Stocks across the West Coast of North America

Modeling ocean distributions and abundances of natural- and hatchery-origin Chinook salmon stocks with integrated genetic and tagging data

Background

Considerable resources are spent to track fish movement in marine environments, often with the intent of estimating behavior, distribution, and abundance. Resulting data from these monitoring efforts, including tagging studies and genetic sampling, often can be siloed. For Pacific salmon in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, predominant data sources for fish monitoring are coded wire tags (CWTs) and genetic stock identification (GSI). Despite their complementary strengths and weaknesses in coverage and information content, the two data streams rarely have been integrated to inform Pacific salmon biology and management. Joint, or integrated, models can combine and contextualize multiple data sources in a single statistical framework to produce more robust estimates of fish populations.

Methods

We introduce and fit a comprehensive joint model that integrates data from CWT recoveries and GSI sampling to inform the marine life history of Chinook salmon stocks at spatial and temporal scales relevant to ongoing fisheries management efforts. In a departure from similar models based primarily on CWT recoveries, modeled stocks in the new framework encompass both hatchery- and natural-origin fish. We specifically model the spatial distribution and marine abundance of four distinct stocks with spawning locations in California and southern Oregon, one of which is listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Results

Using the joint model, we generated the most comprehensive estimates of marine distribution to date for all modeled Chinook salmon stocks, including historically data poor and low abundance stocks. Estimated marine distributions from the joint model were broadly similar to estimates from a simpler, CWT-only model but did suggest some differences in distribution in select seasons. Model output also included novel stock-, year-, and season-specific estimates of marine abundance. We observed and partially addressed several challenges in model convergence with the use of supplemental data sources and model constraints; similar difficulties are not unexpected with integrated modeling. We identify several options for improved data collection that could address issues in convergence and increase confidence in model estimates of abundance. We expect these model advances and results provide management-relevant biological insights, with the potential to inform future mixed-stock fisheries management efforts, as well as a foundation for more expansive and comprehensive analyses to follow.

An integrated model of seasonal changes in stock composition and abundance with an application to Chinook salmon

Population-specific spatial and temporal distribution data are necessary to identify mechanisms regulating abundance and to manage anthropogenic impacts. However the distributions of highly migratory species are often difficult to resolve, particularly when multiple populations' movements overlap. Here we present an integrated model to estimate spatially-stratified, seasonal trends in abundance and population composition, using data from extensive genetic sampling of commercial and recreational Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) fisheries in southern British Columbia. We use the model to estimate seasonal changes in population-specific standardized catch per unit effort (a proxy for abundance) across six marine regions, while accounting for annual variability in sampling effort and uncertain genetic stock assignment. We also share this model as an R package stockseasonr for application to other regions and species. Even at the relatively small spatial scales considered here, we found that patterns in seasonal abundance differed among regions and stocks. While certain locations were clearly migratory corridors, regions within the Salish Sea exhibited diverse, and often weak, seasonal patterns in abundance, emphasizing that they are important, year-round foraging habitats. Furthermore, we found evidence that stocks with similar freshwater life histories and adult run timing, as well as relatively proximate spawning locations, exhibited divergent distributions. Our findings highlight subtle, but important differences in how adult Chinook salmon use marine habitats. Down-scaled model outputs could be used to inform ecosystem-based management efforts by resolving the degree to which salmon overlap with other species of concern, as well as specific fisheries. More broadly, variation in stock-specific abundance among regions indicates efforts to identify mechanisms driving changes in size-at-maturity and natural mortality should account for distinct marine distributions.

Comparison of coded-wire tagging with parentage-based tagging and genetic stock identification in a large-scale coho salmon fisheries application in British Columbia, Canada

Wild Pacific salmon, including Coho salmon Onchorynchus kisutch, have been supplemented with hatchery propagation for over 50 years in support of increased ocean harvest and conservation of threatened populations. In Canada, the Wild Salmon Policy for Pacific salmon was established with the goal of maintaining and restoring healthy and diverse Pacific salmon populations, making conservation of wild salmon and their habitats the highest priority for resource management decision-making. A new approach to the assessment and management of wild coho salmon, and the associated hatchery production and fishery management is needed. Implementation of parentage-based tagging (PBT) may overcome problems associated with coded-wire tag-based (CWT) assessment and management of coho salmon fisheries, providing at a minimum information equivalent to that derived from the CWT program. PBT and genetic stock identification (GSI) were used to identify coho salmon sampled in fisheries (8,006 individuals) and escapements (1,692 individuals) in British Columbia to specific conservation units (CU), populations, and broodyears. Individuals were genotyped at 304 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) via direct sequencing of amplicons. Very high accuracy of assignment to population (100%) via PBT for 543 jack (age 2) assigned to correct age and collection location and 265 coded-wire tag (CWT, age 3) coho salmon assigned to correct age and release location was observed, with a 40,774-individual, 267-population baseline available for assignment. Coho salmon from un-CWTed enhanced populations contributed 65% of the catch in southern recreational fisheries in 2017. Application of a PBT-GSI system of identification to individuals in 2017 fisheries and escapements provided high-resolution estimates of stock composition, catch, and exploitation rate by CU or population, providing an alternate and more effective method in the assessment and management of Canadian-origin coho salmon relative to CWTs, and an opportunity for a genetic-based system to replace the current CWT system for coho salmon assessment.