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Beaudoin C, Moore L, Gagné M, Bessette L, Ste-Marie LG, Brown JP, Jean S. Performance of predictive tools to identify individuals at risk of non-traumatic fracture: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression. Osteoporos Int 2019; 30:721-740. [PMID: 30877348 DOI: 10.1007/s00198-019-04919-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 56] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2018] [Accepted: 02/26/2019] [Indexed: 01/28/2023]
Abstract
UNLABELLED There is no consensus on which tool is the most accurate to assess fracture risk. The results of this systematic review suggest that QFracture, Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) with BMD, and Garvan with BMD are the tools with the best discriminative ability. More studies assessing the comparative performance of current tools are needed. INTRODUCTION Many tools exist to assess fracture risk. This review aims to determine which tools have the best predictive accuracy to identify individuals at high risk of non-traumatic fracture. METHODS Studies assessing the accuracy of tools for prediction of fracture were searched in MEDLINE, EMBASE, Evidence-Based Medicine Reviews, and Global Health. Studies were eligible if discrimination was assessed in a population independent of the derivation cohort. Meta-analyses and meta-regressions were performed on areas under the ROC curve (AUCs). Gender, mean age, age range, and study quality were used as adjustment variables. RESULTS We identified 53 validation studies assessing the discriminative ability of 14 tools. Given the small number of studies on some tools, only FRAX, Garvan, and QFracture were compared using meta-regression models. In the unadjusted analyses, QFracture had the best discriminative ability to predict hip fracture (AUC = 0.88). In the adjusted analysis, FRAX with BMD (AUC = 0.81) and Garvan with BMD (AUC = 0.79) had the highest AUCs. For prediction of major osteoporotic fracture, QFracture had the best discriminative ability (AUC = 0.77). For prediction of osteoporotic or any fracture, FRAX with BMD and Garvan with BMD had higher discriminative ability than their versions without BMD (FRAX: AUC = 0.72 vs 0.69, Garvan: AUC = 0.72 vs 0.65). A significant amount of heterogeneity was present in the analyses. CONCLUSIONS QFracture, FRAX with BMD, and Garvan with BMD have the highest discriminative performance for predicting fracture. Additional studies in which the performance of current tools is assessed in the same individuals may be performed to confirm this conclusion.
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Affiliation(s)
- C Beaudoin
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Medicine Faculty, Laval University, Ferdinand Vandry Pavillon, 1050 Avenue de la Médecine, Quebec City, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada.
- CHU de Québec-Université Laval Research Center, Québec, QC, Canada.
- Bureau d'information et d'études en santé des populations, Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, 945, Avenue Wolfe, Québec, G1V 5B3, Canada.
| | - L Moore
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Medicine Faculty, Laval University, Ferdinand Vandry Pavillon, 1050 Avenue de la Médecine, Quebec City, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada
- CHU de Québec-Université Laval Research Center, Québec, QC, Canada
| | - M Gagné
- Bureau d'information et d'études en santé des populations, Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, 945, Avenue Wolfe, Québec, G1V 5B3, Canada
| | - L Bessette
- CHU de Québec-Université Laval Research Center, Québec, QC, Canada
- Department of Medicine, Medicine Faculty, Laval University, Ferdinand Vandry Pavillon, 1050 Avenue de la Médecine, Quebec City, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - L G Ste-Marie
- Department of Medicine, Medicine Faculty, University of Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada
| | - J P Brown
- CHU de Québec-Université Laval Research Center, Québec, QC, Canada
- Department of Medicine, Medicine Faculty, Laval University, Ferdinand Vandry Pavillon, 1050 Avenue de la Médecine, Quebec City, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - S Jean
- Bureau d'information et d'études en santé des populations, Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, 945, Avenue Wolfe, Québec, G1V 5B3, Canada
- Department of Medicine, Medicine Faculty, Laval University, Ferdinand Vandry Pavillon, 1050 Avenue de la Médecine, Quebec City, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada
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Grahn Kronhed AC, Salminen H. Long-term effects of a ten-year osteoporosis intervention program in a Swedish population—A cross-sectional study. Prev Med Rep 2017; 5:295-300. [PMID: 28229037 PMCID: PMC5312506 DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2016.12.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/26/2016] [Revised: 12/25/2016] [Accepted: 12/30/2016] [Indexed: 11/27/2022] Open
Abstract
The aim of the study was to explore long-term effects seven years after the completion of a ten-year community-based osteoporosis intervention program in Vadstena, Sweden. The association between calcaneal bone mineral density and several life style factors, and the impact of risk factors for sustaining a fracture after the age of 50 were also studied. Previous participants in the intervention group, and matched subjects were invited to calcaneal bone mass measurement by a portable device including the dual X-ray and laser (DXL) technology by Calscan, and to complete a questionnaire in 2006. A total of 417 persons (63% of those invited) in the intervention (I) group, and 120 persons (47% of those invited) in the control (C) group participated. Mean age was 63 years (37–94 years). There was somewhat more knowledge of osteoporosis in the I-group (M = 18) than in the C-group (M = 17) (p < 0.05), and more use of shoe/cane spikes in elderly women in the I-group (67%) than in the C-group (40.5%). The fully adjusted model of logistic regression showed that participants with an osteoporotic DXL T-score (≤− 2.5) had a 3-fold increased risk (95%CI 1.48–6.89) of having a history of a self-reported fracture after the age of fifty compared to women with a calcaneal T-score >− 2.5. The long-term effects of a ten-year, community-based, osteoporosis intervention program on knowledge and behavior were modest seven years after its completion. The effect of community-based osteoporosis intervention seems modest in the long run. Elderly women were compliant with fall prevention advice using spikes in winter. An osteoporotic calcaneal T-score may imply increased risk for fracture. Moderate/high physical activity was positively associated with calcaneal BMD in men. Brisk walks in the summer were positively associated with calcaneal BMD in women.
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