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Rudke A, Xavier A, Martins L, Freitas E, Uvo C, Hallak R, Souza R, Andreoli R, de Almeida Albuquerque T, Martins J. Landscape changes over 30 years of intense economic activity in the upper Paraná River basin. ECOL INFORM 2022. [DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101882] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/03/2022]
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Adaptation strategies and collective dynamics of extraction in networked commons of bistable resources. Sci Rep 2021; 11:21987. [PMID: 34753992 PMCID: PMC8578606 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-01314-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2021] [Accepted: 10/18/2021] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
When populations share common-pool resources (CPRs), individuals decide how much effort to invest towards resource extraction and how to allocate this effort among available resources. We investigate these dual aspects of individual choice in networked games where resources undergo regime shifts between discrete quality states (viable or depleted) depending on collective extraction levels. We study the patterns of extraction that emerge on various network types when agents are free to vary extraction from each CPR separately to maximize their short-term payoffs. Using these results as a basis for comparison, we then investigate how results are altered if agents fix one aspect of adaptation (magnitude or allocation) while letting the other vary. We consider two constrained adaptation strategies: uniform adaptation, whereby agents adjust their extraction levels from all CPRs by the same amount, and reallocation, whereby agents selectively shift effort from lower- to higher-quality resources. A preference for uniform adaptation increases collective wealth on degree-heterogeneous agent-resource networks. Further, low-degree agents retain preferences for these constrained strategies under reinforcement learning. Empirical studies have indicated that some CPR appropriators ignore—while others emphasize—allocation aspects of adaptation; our results demonstrate that structural patterns of resource access can determine which behavior is more advantageous.
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Campos Tisovec‐Dufner K, Teixeira L, Marin GDL, Coudel E, Morsello C, Pardini R. Intention of preserving forest remnants among landowners in the Atlantic Forest: The role of the ecological context via ecosystem services. PEOPLE AND NATURE 2019. [DOI: 10.1002/pan3.10051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Lucas Teixeira
- Programa de Pós‐graduação em Ecologia Instituto de Biociências Universidade de São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
| | - Gabriela de Lima Marin
- Programa de Pós‐graduação em Ecologia Instituto de Biociências Universidade de São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
| | - Emilie Coudel
- UPR GREEN CIRAD Montpellier France
- Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Universidade de Brasília Brasília Brazil
| | - Carla Morsello
- Escola de Artes, Ciências e Humanidades Universidade de São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
- Instituto de Energia e Ambiente Universidade de São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
| | - Renata Pardini
- Departamento de Zoologia Instituto de Biociências Universidade de São Paulo São Paulo Brazil
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Silva DP, Dias AC, Lecci LS, Simião-Ferreira J. Potential Effects of Future Climate Changes on Brazilian Cool-Adapted Stoneflies (Insecta: Plecoptera). NEOTROPICAL ENTOMOLOGY 2019; 48:57-70. [PMID: 30066276 DOI: 10.1007/s13744-018-0621-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/01/2017] [Accepted: 07/09/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
The continuous pursuit of welfare and economic development through the exploitation of natural resources by human societies consequently resulted in the ongoing process of climate change. Changes in the distribution of species towards the planet's poles and mountain tops are some of the expected to biological consequences of this process. Here, we assessed the potential effects of future climate change on four cool-adapted Gripopterygidae (Insecta: Plecoptera) species [Gripopteryx garbei Navás 1936, G. cancellata (Pictet 1841), Tupiperla gracilis (Burmeister 1839), and T. tessellata (Brauer 1866)] from Southeastern Brazilian Atlantic forest. As species adapted to cold conditions, in the future scenarios of climate change, we expected these organisms to shrink/change their distributions ranges towards areas with suitable climatic conditions in Southern Brazilian regions, when compared with their predicted distributions in present climatic conditions. We used seven principal components derived from 19 environmental variables from Worldclim database for the present scenario and also seven principal components obtained from 17 different Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs), considering the most severe emission scenario for green-house gases to predict the species' distributions. Depending on the climatic scenario considered, there were polewards distribution range changes of the species. Additionally, we also observed an important decrease in the amount of protected modeled range for the species in the future scenarios. Considering that this Brazilian region may become hotter in the future and have its precipitation regime changed, as observed in the severe 2013-2014 drought, we believe these species adapted to high altitudes will be severely threatened in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- D P Silva
- Depto de Ciências Biológicas, Instituto Federal Goiano, Urutaí, GO, Brasil.
| | - A C Dias
- Campus de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas, Univ Estadual de Goiás, Anápolis, GO, Brasil
| | - L S Lecci
- Depto de Biologia - DBio, Univ Federal de Mato Grosso - UFMT, Rondonópolis, MT, Brasil
| | - J Simião-Ferreira
- Campus de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas, Univ Estadual de Goiás, Anápolis, GO, Brasil
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Water Supply Basins of São Paulo Metropolitan Region: Hydro-Climatic Characteristics of the 2013–2015 Water Crisis. WATER 2018. [DOI: 10.3390/w10111517] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
São Paulo metropolitan region experienced an acute water crisis between 2013 and 2015. According to the Brazilian and international press, it was due to climatic, anthropogenic, and water management factors. This paper assesses the hydro-climatic characteristics of the crisis by focusing on the Alto-Tietê basin and the headwater of the Piracicaba-Capivari-Jundiaí (PCJ) basin that supply 70% of the water consumed in the metropolis. Based on 16 rain-gauge stations, 5 runoff-gauge stations, and several statistical analyses carried over the 1951–2015 period, this assessment shows that the 2013–2015 hydro-climatic crisis resulted from a large number of days without rain in the north of the Alto-Tietê basin and to less intense precipitation events in the headwaters of the PCJ basin during the austral spring 2013 and the year 2014. It also defines a return period of 98 years for observed river flows in 2014. Despite the rare nature of this hydrological drought, the need for efficient water saving policies is brought forward.
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Znachor P, Nedoma J, Hejzlar J, Seďa J, Kopáček J, Boukal D, Mrkvička T. Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2018; 624:24-33. [PMID: 29245035 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.061] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/07/2017] [Revised: 12/05/2017] [Accepted: 12/05/2017] [Indexed: 05/28/2023]
Abstract
Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can provide a solid basis for a better understanding of processes in freshwater reservoirs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Petr Znachor
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i., Institute of Hydrobiology, Na Sádkách 7, České Budějovice 37005, Czech Republic; Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branišovská 31, České Budějovice 37005, Czech Republic.
| | - Jiří Nedoma
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i., Institute of Hydrobiology, Na Sádkách 7, České Budějovice 37005, Czech Republic
| | - Josef Hejzlar
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i., Institute of Hydrobiology, Na Sádkách 7, České Budějovice 37005, Czech Republic
| | - Jaromír Seďa
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i., Institute of Hydrobiology, Na Sádkách 7, České Budějovice 37005, Czech Republic
| | - Jiří Kopáček
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i., Institute of Hydrobiology, Na Sádkách 7, České Budějovice 37005, Czech Republic
| | - David Boukal
- Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Branišovská 31, České Budějovice 37005, Czech Republic
| | - Tomáš Mrkvička
- Biology Centre of the Czech Academy of Sciences, v.v.i., Institute of Hydrobiology, Na Sádkách 7, České Budějovice 37005, Czech Republic; Faculty of Economy, University of South Bohemia, Studentská 13, České Budějovice 37005, Czech Republic
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Abstract
Urbanization is a global process that has taken billions of people from the rural countryside to concentrated urban centers, adding pressure to existing water resources. Many cities are specifically reliant on renewable freshwater regularly refilled by precipitation, rather than fossil groundwater or desalination. A precipitationshed can be considered the "watershed of the sky" and identifies the origin of precipitation falling in a given region. In this paper, we use this concept to determine the sources of precipitation that supply renewable water in the watersheds of the largest cities of the world. We quantify the sources of precipitation for 29 megacities and analyze their differences between dry and wet years. Our results reveal that 19 of 29 megacities depend for more than a third of their water supply on evaporation from land. We also show that for many of the megacities, the terrestrial dependence is higher in dry years. This high dependence on terrestrial evaporation for their precipitation exposes these cities to potential land-use change that could reduce the evaporation that generates precipitation. Combining indicators of water stress, moisture recycling exposure, economic capacity, vegetation-regulated evaporation, land-use change, and dry-season moisture recycling sensitivity reveals four highly vulnerable megacities (Karachi, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing). A further six megacities were found to have medium vulnerability with regard to their water supply. We conclude that understanding how upwind landscapes affect downwind municipal water resources could be a key component for understanding the complexity of urban water security.
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Three-Dimensional Modeling of Wind- and Temperature-Induced Flows in the Icó-Mandantes Bay, Itaparica Reservoir, NE Brazil. WATER 2017. [DOI: 10.3390/w9100772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
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Zhao L, Li W, Yang C, Han J, Su Z, Zou Y. Multifractality and Network Analysis of Phase Transition. PLoS One 2017; 12:e0170467. [PMID: 28107414 PMCID: PMC5249085 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0170467] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2016] [Accepted: 01/05/2017] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
Many models and real complex systems possess critical thresholds at which the systems shift dramatically from one sate to another. The discovery of early-warnings in the vicinity of critical points are of great importance to estimate how far the systems are away from the critical states. Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and visibility graph method have been employed to investigate the multifractal and geometrical properties of the magnetization time series of the two-dimensional Ising model. Multifractality of the time series near the critical point has been uncovered from the generalized Hurst exponents and singularity spectrum. Both long-term correlation and broad probability density function are identified to be the sources of multifractality. Heterogeneous nature of the networks constructed from magnetization time series have validated the fractal properties. Evolution of the topological quantities of the visibility graph, along with the variation of multifractality, serve as new early-warnings of phase transition. Those methods and results may provide new insights about the analysis of phase transition problems and can be used as early-warnings for a variety of complex systems.
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Affiliation(s)
- Longfeng Zhao
- Complexity Science Center & Institute of Particle Physics, Hua-Zhong (Central China) Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Wei Li
- Complexity Science Center & Institute of Particle Physics, Hua-Zhong (Central China) Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
- Max-Planck-Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
| | - Chunbin Yang
- Complexity Science Center & Institute of Particle Physics, Hua-Zhong (Central China) Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Jihui Han
- Complexity Science Center & Institute of Particle Physics, Hua-Zhong (Central China) Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Zhu Su
- Complexity Science Center & Institute of Particle Physics, Hua-Zhong (Central China) Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
| | - Yijiang Zou
- Complexity Science Center & Institute of Particle Physics, Hua-Zhong (Central China) Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
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