Sensitivity of Bovine Tuberculosis Surveillance in Wildlife in France: A Scenario Tree Approach

Intra- and interspecies infectious neighbourhoods as determinant parameters for Mycobacterium bovis infection among badgers in southwestern France

The epidemiological system for Mycobacterium bovis in France involves cattle and, in some areas, wildlife species (mainly badgers and wild boar). This multi-host aspect complicates the control and eradication prospects for bovine tuberculosis in endemic areas, despite the surveillance and control measures implemented for decades in this officially tuberculosis-free European country. To improve control measures, and to manage spillback transmission from badgers to cattle, it is necessary to clarify the transmission mechanisms of M. bovis in these epidemiological systems. We modelled a badger population from a southwestern endemic area by a Dirichlet tessellation based on a sett census conducted by local hunters and trappers between 2013 and 2015. We then used a logistic regression model to test the association between the infection status of setts and computed variables depicting three types of transmission (intraspecific, interspecific and landscape-associated). The apparent prevalence of infected setts was of 40.5%. Two variables were significantly associated with the probability for a sett to be infected: the proportion of neighbouring setts that were infected (OR: 3.19 [2.04-5.17]95%) and the presence of nearby pastures belonging to an infected farm (OR: 2.33 [1.13-4.89]95%]. While badger culling measures have been implemented according to the national TB control plan in the study area since 2012 (in the vicinity of infected farms and their pastures), our results clearly highlight the need to reinforce measures aimed at reducing both intraspecific and interspecific infection pressure. For this purpose, the promising prospect of badger vaccination could be considered, along with biosecurity measures.

A Bayesian evolutionary model towards understanding wildlife contribution to F4-family Mycobacterium bovis transmission in the South-West of France

In two “départements” in the South-West of France, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) outbreaks due to Mycobacterium bovis spoligotype SB0821 have been identified in cattle since 2002 and in wildlife since 2013. Using whole genome sequencing, the aim of our study was to clarify badger contribution to bTB transmission in this area. We used a Bayesian evolutionary model, to infer phylogenetic trees and migration rates between two pathogen populations defined by their host-species. In order to account for sampling bias, sub-population structure was inferred using the marginal approximation of the structured coalescent (Mascot) implemented in BEAST2. We included 167 SB0821 strains (21 isolated from badgers and 146 from cattle) and identified 171 single nucleotide polymorphisms. We selected a HKY model and a strict molecular clock. We estimated a badger-to-cattle transition rate (median: 2.2 transitions/lineage/year) 52 times superior to the cattle-to-badger rate (median: 0.042 transitions/lineage/year). Using the maximum clade credibility tree, we identified that over 75% of the lineages from 1989 to 2000 were present in badgers. In addition, we calculated a median of 64 transition events from badger-to-cattle (IQR: 10–91) and a median of zero transition event from cattle-to-badger (IQR: 0–3). Our model enabled us to infer inter-species transitions but not intra-population transmission as in previous epidemiological studies, where relevant units were farms and badger social groups. Thus, while we could not confirm badgers as possible intermediaries in farm-to-farm transmission, badger-to-cattle transition rate was high and we confirmed long-term presence of M.bovis in the badger population in the South-West of France.

The effectiveness of bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Dutch badgers

Countries survey wildlife for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) to ensure case detection or to ascertain a high probability of freedom from bTB in wildlife. The Eurasian badger (Meles meles) is a potential bTB reservoir host. Between 2008 and 2019, 282 badgers were examined post‐mortem in the context of general wildlife disease and targeted bTB surveillance programmes in the Netherlands, and no bTB cases were detected. However, it was unclear how effective this surveillance effort was to demonstrate freedom from Mycobacterium bovis infection in the badger population of ±6000 or to detect cases if present.

Therefore, surveillance effectiveness was assessed using scenario tree modelling. For lack of standards for wildlife, the models were run against three assumed levels of disease in the population called design prevalence P*: 0.1%, 0.5%, and 3%. A small risk of introduction (0.015/year) was applied, because the Netherlands are officially free from bTB in cattle, with rare import of bTB‐infected cattle and no bTB‐infected wildlife reported along the Belgian and German borders with the Netherlands. Surveillance more readily picks up bTB presence in badgers when case detection sensitivity tends towards 100% and demonstrates freedom best when the probability of freedom tends towards 100%.

For P* 0.1%, 0.5% and 3%, respectively, maximum case detection sensitivity during 2008–2019 was 8%, 35% and 94% and the probability of freedom in 2019 was 46%, 67%, and 95%. At P* = 3%, performing targeted surveillance on 300 badgers in a year would make it extremely unlikely to miss a case (case detection sensitivity > 99.9%); and if no cases are detected, the adjusted probability of freedom would then reach nearly 98.5%. Stakeholders should be made aware that at P* = 3%, one case detected implies around 3% infected badgers. Additional surveillance system components to assess bTB in wildlife and its economics are to be explored further.

Sensitivity of bovine tuberculosis surveillance through intradermal tests in cattle in France: An evaluation of different scenarios

The current situation regarding bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in Europe is spatially heterogeneous, with stagnating or increasing trends in bTB prevalence in many European regions, underlying the challenge in controlling this disease. In France, in spite of the implementation of two control programs in 2010-2012 to eradicate the disease and maintain the bTB-free status, bTB prevalence has continued to increase, underlying the need to reinforce and adapt surveillance measures. The goal of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of bTB surveillance in high-risk areas in metropolitan France, with an emphasis on the criteria to select herds and animals within herds in the context of programmed surveillance and movement testing. The fraction of bTB-infected herds detected by the surveillance was quantified using a stochastic scenario tree modelling approach, with input parameter values based on surveillance and cattle traceability data and literature. The detection fraction was assessed for the current surveillance system and for alternative scenarios. The model predicted that the median detection fraction of infected herds by the current programmed surveillance in high-risk areas, which consists in annual testing of herds with a minimum age of testing of 24 months, was 71.5 % (interquartile interval: 47.4-89.4). The results showed a significant gain of the detection fraction with a decrease from 24 to 12 months old (83.5 % [60.6-95.9]) or to six weeks old (91.3 % [71.6-99.0]). Regarding pre-movement surveillance, tests are currently mandatory for bovines that originate from a previously infected herd or from a herd epidemiologically linked to a bTB-infected herd. The median detection fraction predicted by the model for this surveillance scenario was 1.2 % [0.7-1.8]. For the alternative scenario, where surveillance would be extended to all herds in high-risk areas, the model predicted a significant increase of the detection fraction to 26.5 % [18.1-37.9]. The results were sensitive to the following input values: the number of infected bovines within herds and, to a lower extent, the comparative intradermal tuberculin test sensitivity for both models, and surveillance coverage for the model on pre-movement surveillance. Our study underlines several complementary ways to improve the detection of infected herds, which is critical for implementing control measures and epidemiological investigations as early as possible. These necessary changes in surveillance must be accompanied by a global reflexion on surveillance financing.

Evaluation of the sensitivity of the classical swine fever surveillance system in two free zones in Colombia

Infection with the classical swine fever virus (CSFV) causes a disease in pigs that ranges from a hyperacute form in which animals die in a few hours to subclinical disease. Due to this wide range of virulence, several complementary surveillance strategies should be implemented for the early detection of the disease. The objective of the present study was to determine the sensitivity of the surveillance system to detect CSFV outbreaks in a free zone (Zone 1) and in a zone undergoing an eradication process (Zone 2) in Colombia. Stochastic scenario tree models were used to describe the population and surveillance structures and to determine the probability of CSFV detection. The total sensitivity of the surveillance system in the case of a single infected farm in Zone 1 was 31.4% (CI 95%: 7.2-54.1) and in the case of 5 infected farms was 85.2% (CI 95%: 67.3-93.7), while in Zone 2 the sensitivities were 27.8% (CI 95%: 6.4-55.1) and 82.5% (CI 95%: 65-92.9), respectively. The on-farm passive surveillance shows the highest sensitivity for detection of a single CSFV infected farm in both zones (22.8% in Zone 1 and 22.5% in Zone 2). The probability of detection was higher in a family / backyard premise than on a commercial farm in both zones. The passive surveillance at slaughterhouse had a sensitivity of 5.3% and 4.5% for the detection of a single infected farm in Zone 1 and 2, respectively. Active surveillance presented a range of sensitivity between 2.2% and 4.5%. In conclusion, the sensitivity of the surveillance in the two studied zones was quite high, one of reasons for this good sensitivity being the sentinel network based on the voluntary participation of 5,500 collaborators that were trained for the identification and notification of diseases of national interest.

Assessment of the cost-effectiveness of alternative bovine tuberculosis surveillance protocols in French cattle farms using the mixed interferon gamma test

Periodic screening in farms, using intradermal cervical comparative tuberculin test (ICCT), is a component of the French ante mortem surveillance of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). Previous studies have estimated the cost-effectiveness of the French mandatory bTB screening protocols. In these protocols, a second ICCT (ICCT2) is performed 42 days after the first one (ICCT1), either on the entire herd (strict protocol) or in series on animals with non-negative results (reactors) to ICCT1 (compliant protocol). The 42-days interval reduced protocols' cost-effectiveness. To minimize this interval, we suggested two alternative protocols, in which a mixed interferon gamma test (IFNMIX), with better sensitivity than ICCT2 and comparable specificity, replaces the ICCT2, and is carried out directly after the ICCT1. In the strict alternative protocol, reactors to ICCT1 are culled to perform laboratory analyses (PCR, bacteriology). Negative results to these analyses imply the IFNMIX testing of the entire herd. In the compliant alternative protocol, only reactor(s) to ICCT1 are tested with IFNMIX, and animals with positive results to IFNMIX are culled for laboratory analyses. We evaluated these protocols through scenario tree modelling. The estimated cost-effectiveness indexes showed that the compliant alternative protocol was the most efficient. The strict protocols (mandatory and alternative) were never the most efficient, but were the most effective. Therefore, using IFNMIX instead of ICCT2 may be useful in reducing the costs of the compliant protocol used when the probability of infection is considered low. The strict alternative protocol may become more attractive would IFNMIX's price decreased.

Assessment of bovine tuberculosis surveillance effectiveness in French wildlife: An operational approach

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a chronic, zoonotic, bacterial disease mostly caused by Mycobacterium bovis, which can affect both domestic and wild species. France was officially declared bTB-free in 2001 but faced since 2004 an increase of the prevalence in cattle. Since 2001, bTB has been detected in several wild species: red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), wild boar (Sus scrofa) and badger (Meles meles). Infected wild species constitute a major threat, because they may contribute to the maintenance of the infection in cattle and prevent eradication. In 2011, a surveillance system, Sylvatub, was implemented nationwide, to monitor the epidemiological status of bTB in mainland France. Our objective in this study was to assess the effectiveness of one of Sylvatub's passive surveillance system components (SSCs), which is based on the visual inspection of hunted animals (wild boars, red and roe deer) throughout mainland France. The following effectiveness criteria were evaluated: individual-level and component group-level positive and negative predictive values, and individual-level and component group-level probabilities of type I error ("false-positive" error) and type II error ("false-negative" error). These criteria were estimated quantitatively, at the scale of the département (a French administrative area of similar size to a county), with a stochastic scenario tree model. Individual negative predictive values were high, whereas individual positive predictive values were poor, whatever the species considered, and the training of hunters did not improve these effectiveness criteria sufficiently. The individual-level probability of type I error was relatively low, but the individual-level probability of type II error was generally high and was therefore an issue. However, increasing the proportion of trained hunters decreased this probability effectively. At group level, the size of the population surveyed had a marked impact on the effectiveness criteria: both the component group-level negative predictive value and the component group-level probability of type II error decreased rapidly with increasing population size. The conclusions drawn from such rationale may directly benefit stakeholders and actors in the field in their day to day practice of the surveillance processes. Thus, the assessment method used in this article presents the advantage of being operational, as well as being applicable to any surveillance system.

Infection of Wildlife by Mycobacterium bovis in France Assessment Through a National Surveillance System, Sylvatub

Mycobacterium bovis infection was first described in free-ranging wildlife in France in 2001, with subsequent detection in hunter-harvested ungulates and badgers in areas where outbreaks of bovine tuberculosis (TB) were also detected in cattle. Increasing concerns regarding TB in wildlife led the French General Directorate for Food (DGAL) and the main institutions involved in animal health and wildlife management, to establish a national surveillance system for TB in free-ranging wildlife. This surveillance system is known as “Sylvatub.” The system coordinates the activities of various national and local partners. The main goal of Sylvatub is to detect and monitor M. bovis infection in wildlife through a combination of passive and active surveillance protocols adapted to the estimated risk level in each area of the country. Event-base surveillance relies on M. bovis identification (molecular detection) (i) in gross lesions detected in hunter-harvested ungulates, (ii) in ungulates that are found dead or dying, and (iii) in road-killed badgers. Additional targeted surveillance in badgers, wild boars and red deer is implemented on samples from trapped or hunted animals in at-risk areas. With the exception of one unexplained case in a wild boar, M. bovis infection in free-living wildlife has always been detected in the vicinity of cattle TB outbreaks with the same genotype of the infectious M. bovis strains. Since 2012, M. bovis was actively monitored in these infected areas and detected mainly in badgers and wild boars with apparent infection rates of 4.57–5.14% and 2.37–3.04%, respectively depending of the diagnostic test used (culture or PCR), the period and according to areas. Sporadic infection has also been detected in red deer and roe deer. This surveillance has demonstrated that M. bovis infection, in different areas of France, involves a multi-host system including cattle and wildlife. However, infection rates are lower than those observed in badgers in the United Kingdom or in wild boars in Spain.

Comparison of Alternative Meat Inspection Regimes for Pigs From Non-Controlled Housing - Considering the Cost of Error

Denmark has not had cases of bovine tuberculosis (bovTB) for more than 30 years but is obliged by trade agreements to undertake traditional meat inspection (TMI) of finisher pigs from non-controlled housing to detect bovTB. TMI is associated with higher probability of detecting bovTB but is also more costly than visual-only inspection (VOI). To identify whether VOI should replace TMI of finisher pigs from non-controlled housing, the cost of error - defined here as probability of overlooking infection and associated economic costs - should be assessed and compared with surveillance costs. First, a scenario tree model was set up to assess the ability of detecting bovTB in an infected herd (HSe) calculated for three within-herd prevalences, WHP (1, 5 and 10%), for four different surveillance scenarios (TMI and VOI with or without serological test, respectively). HSe was calculated for six consecutive 4-week surveillance periods until predicted bovTB detection (considered high-risk periods HRP). 1-HSe was probability of missing all positives by each HRP. Next, probability of spread of infection, Pspread, and number of infected animals moved were calculated for each HRP. Costs caused by overlooking bovTB were calculated taking into account Pspread , 1-HSe, eradication costs, and trade impact. Finally, the average annual costs were calculated by adding surveillance costs and assuming one incursion of bovTB in either 1, 10 or 30 years. Input parameters were based on slaughterhouse statistics, literature and expert opinion. Herd sensitivity increased by high-risk period and within-herd prevalence. Assuming WHP=5%, HSe reached median 90% by 2nd HRP for TMI, whereas for VOI this would happen after 6th HRP. Serology had limited impact on HSe. The higher the probability of infection, the higher the probability of detection and spread. TMI resulted in lowest average annual costs, if one incursion of bovTB was expected every year. However, when assuming one introduction in 10 or 30 years, VOI resulted in lowest average costs. It may be more cost-effective to focus on imported high-risk animals coming into contact with Danish livestock, instead of using TMI as surveillance on all pigs from non-controlled housing.

Perceptions and acceptability of some stakeholders about the bovine tuberculosis surveillance system for wildlife (Sylvatub) in France

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a common disease of cattle and wildlife, with economic repercussions and implications for animal and human health. The surveillance of bTB in wildlife is particularly important, to shed light on the epidemiological role of wild species and for the adaptation of control measures. In France, a bTB surveillance system for free-ranging wildlife, the Sylvatub system, was launched in 2011 on wild boars, red deer, roe deer and badgers. It relies on active and passive surveillance activities, constrained by practical difficulties, such as the accessibility of wild animals, and regulatory rules for the trapping of badgers, for example. We report here the first assessment of stakeholders’ perceptions of the Sylvatub system and its acceptability, based on 20 individual semi-structured interviews with three types of stakeholder (collectors, coordinators, officers) in areas with different rates of bTB infection. With the caveat that these findings cannot be assumed to be representative of the national situation, we found that the Sylvatub system was considered useful by all the stakeholders interviewed. Those from the world of hunting participate in surveillance mostly to help livestock farmers, who are not systematically involved in bTB surveillance in wildlife. Many practical and regulatory constraints were raised, which could be offset by recognition of the work done by the “hunting community”, to maintain the willingness of these individuals to participate. We also identified a need for improvements in communication and information. Qualitative information, such as that collected here, is essential to improve our understanding of the reasons favoring and disfavoring participation in surveillance, and should be taken into account in the evaluation process. These results are relevant to hunters and to veterinary authorities wishing to identify the determinants of participation in the Sylvatub system. They could provide support for decision-making processes to improve surveillance strategies.

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of bovine tuberculosis surveillance in wildlife in France (Sylvatub system) using scenario trees

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a common disease in cattle and wildlife, with health, zoonotic and economic implications. Infected wild animals, and particularly reservoirs, could hinder eradication of bTB from cattle populations, which could have an important impact on international cattle trade. Therefore, surveillance of bTB in wildlife is of particular importance to better understand the epidemiological role of wild species and to adapt the control measures. In France, a bTB surveillance system for free-ranging wildlife, the Sylvatub system, has been implemented since 2011. It relies on three surveillance components (SSCs) (passive surveillance on hunted animals (EC-SSC), passive surveillance on dead or dying animals (SAGIR-SSC) and active surveillance (PSURV-SSC)). The effectiveness of the Sylvatub system was previously assessed, through the estimation of its sensitivity (i.e. the probability of detecting at least one case of bTB infection by each SSC, specie and risk-level area). However, to globally assess the performance of a surveillance system, the measure of its sensitivity is not sufficient, as other factors such as economic or socio-economic factors could influence the effectiveness. We report here an estimation of the costs of the surveillance activities of the Sylvatub system, and of the cost-effectiveness of each surveillance component, by specie and risk-level, based on scenario tree modelling with the same tree structure as used for the sensitivity evaluation. The cost-effectiveness of the Sylvatub surveillance is better in higher-risk departments, due in particular to the higher probability of detecting the infection (sensitivity). Moreover, EC-SSC, which has the highest unit cost, is more efficient than the surveillance enhanced by the SAGIR-SSC, due to its better sensitivity. The calculation of the cost-effectiveness ratio shows that PSURV-SSC remains the most cost-effective surveillance component of the Sylvatub system, despite its high cost in terms of coordination, sample collection and laboratory analysis.

Active animal health surveillance in European Union Member States: gaps and opportunities

Animal health surveillance enables the detection and control of animal diseases including zoonoses. Under the EU-FP7 project RISKSUR, a survey was conducted in 11 EU Member States and Switzerland to describe active surveillance components in 2011 managed by the public or private sector and identify gaps and opportunities. Information was collected about hazard, target population, geographical focus, legal obligation, management, surveillance design, risk-based sampling, and multi-hazard surveillance. Two countries were excluded due to incompleteness of data. Most of the 664 components targeted cattle (26·7%), pigs (17·5%) or poultry (16·0%). The most common surveillance objectives were demonstrating freedom from disease (43·8%) and case detection (26·8%). Over half of components applied risk-based sampling (57·1%), but mainly focused on a single population stratum (targeted risk-based) rather than differentiating between risk levels of different strata (stratified risk-based). About a third of components were multi-hazard (37·3%). Both risk-based sampling and multi-hazard surveillance were used more frequently in privately funded components. The study identified several gaps (e.g. lack of systematic documentation, inconsistent application of terminology) and opportunities (e.g. stratified risk-based sampling). The greater flexibility provided by the new EU Animal Health Law means that systematic evaluation of surveillance alternatives will be required to optimize cost-effectiveness.