Integrating Genomics with Nutrition Models to Improve the Prediction of Cattle Performance and Carcass Composition under Feedlot Conditions

A system dynamics approach to model heat stress accumulation in dairy cows during a heatwave event

Climate change is expected to increase the number of heat wave events, leading to prolonged exposures to severe heat stress (HS) and the corresponding adverse effects on dairy cattle productivity. Modelling dairy cattle productivity under HS conditions is complicated because it requires comprehending the complexity, non-linearity, dynamicity, and delays in animal response. In this paper, we applied the System Dynamics methodology to understand the dynamics of animal response and system delays of observed milk yield (MY) in dairy cows under HS. Data on MY and temperature-humidity index were collected from a dairy cattle farm. Model development involved: (i) articulation of the problem, identification of the feedback mechanisms, and development of the dynamic hypothesis through a causal loop diagram; (ii) formulation of the quantitative model through a stock-and-flow structure; (iii) calibration of the model parameters; and (iv) analysis of results for individual cows. The model was successively evaluated with 20 cows in the case study farm, and the relevant parameters of their HS response were quantified with calibration. According to the evaluation of the results, the proposed model structure was able to capture the effect of HS for 11 cows with high accuracy with mean absolute percent error <5%, concordance correlation coefficient >0.6, and R2 > 0.6, except for two cows (ID #13 and #20) with R2 less than 0.6, implying that the rest of the nine animals do not exhibit heat-sensitive behaviour for the defined parameter space. The presented HS model considered non-linear feedback mechanisms as an attempt to help farmers and decision makers quantify the animal response to HS, predict MY under HS conditions, and distinguish the heat-sensitive cows from heat-tolerant cows at the farm level.

ASN-ASAS SYMPOSIUM: FUTURE OF DATA ANALYTICS IN NUTRITION: Mathematical modeling in ruminant nutrition: approaches and paradigms, extant models, and thoughts for upcoming predictive analytics1,2

This paper outlines typical terminology for modeling and highlights key historical and forthcoming aspects of mathematical modeling. Mathematical models (MM) are mental conceptualizations, enclosed in a virtual domain, whose purpose is to translate real-life situations into mathematical formulations to describe existing patterns or forecast future behaviors in real-life situations. The appropriateness of the virtual representation of real-life situations through MM depends on the modeler's ability to synthesize essential concepts and associate their interrelationships with measured data. The development of MM paralleled the evolution of digital computing. The scientific community has only slightly accepted and used MM, in part because scientists are trained in experimental research and not systems thinking. The scientific advancements in ruminant production have been tangible but incipient because we are still learning how to connect experimental research data and concepts through MM, a process that is still obscure to many scientists. Our inability to ask the right questions and to define the boundaries of our problem when developing models might have limited the breadth and depth of MM in agriculture. Artificial intelligence (AI) has been developed in tandem with the need to analyze big data using high-performance computing. However, the emergence of AI, a computational technology that is data-intensive and requires less systems thinking of how things are interrelated, may further reduce the interest in mechanistic, conceptual MM. Artificial intelligence might provide, however, a paradigm shift in MM, including nutrition modeling, by creating novel opportunities to understand the underlying mechanisms when integrating large amounts of quantifiable data. Associating AI with mechanistic models may eventually lead to the development of hybrid mechanistic machine-learning modeling. Modelers must learn how to integrate powerful data-driven tools and knowledge-driven approaches into functional models that are sustainable and resilient. The successful future of MM might rely on the development of redesigned models that can integrate existing technological advancements in data analytics to take advantage of accumulated scientific knowledge. However, the next evolution may require the creation of novel technologies for data gathering and analyses and the rethinking of innovative MM concepts rather than spending resources in collecting futile data or amending old technologies.

Review: Precision nutrition of ruminants: approaches, challenges and potential gains

A plethora of sensors and information technologies with applications to the precision nutrition of herbivores have been developed and continue to be developed. The nutritional processes start outside of the animal body with the available feed (quantity and quality) and continue inside it once the feed is consumed, degraded in the gastrointestinal tract and metabolised by organs and tissues. Finally, some nutrients are wasted via urination, defecation and gaseous emissions through breathing and belching whereas remaining nutrients ensure maintenance and production. Nowadays, several processes can be monitored in real-time using new technologies, but although these provide valuable data 'as is', further gains could be obtained using this information as inputs to nutrition simulation models to predict unmeasurable variables in real-time and to forecast outcomes of interest. Data provided by sensors can create synergies with simulation models and this approach has the potential to expand current applications. In addition, data provided by sensors could be used with advanced analytical techniques such as data fusion, optimisation techniques and machine learning to improve their value for applications in precision animal nutrition. The present paper reviews technologies that can monitor different nutritional processes relevant to animal production, profitability, environmental management and welfare. We discussed the model-data fusion approach in which data provided by sensor technologies can be used as input of nutrition simulation models in near-real time to produce more accurate, certain and timely predictions. We also discuss some examples that have taken this model-data fusion approach to complement the capabilities of both models and sensor data, and provided examples such as predicting feed intake and methane emissions. Challenges with automatising the nutritional management of individual animals include monitoring and predicting of the flow of nutrients including nutrient intake, quantity and composition of body growth and milk production, gestation, maintenance and physical activities at the individual animal level. We concluded that the livestock industries are already seeing benefits from the development of sensor and information technologies, and this benefit is expected to grow exponentially soon with the integration of nutrition simulation models and techniques for big data analysis. However, this approach may need re-evaluating or performing new empirical research in both fields of animal nutrition and simulation modelling to accommodate a new type of data provided by the sensor technologies.