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Gutiérrez EHJ, Riehle MA, Walker KR, Ernst KC, Davidowitz G. Using body size as an indicator for age structure in field populations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). Parasit Vectors 2022; 15:483. [PMID: 36550576 PMCID: PMC9773510 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-022-05605-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2022] [Accepted: 10/02/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The Aedes aegypti mosquito is a vector of several viruses including dengue, chikungunya, zika, and yellow fever. Vector surveillance and control are the primary methods used for the control and prevention of disease transmission; however, public health institutions largely rely on measures of population abundance as a trigger for initiating control activities. Previous research found evidence that at the northern edge of Ae. aegypti's geographic range, survival, rather than abundance, is likely to be the factor limiting disease transmission. In this study, we sought to test the utility of using body size as an entomological index to surveil changes in the age structure of field-collected female Aedes aegypti. METHODS We collected female Ae. aegypti mosquitoes using BG sentinel traps in three cities at the northern edge of their geographic range. Collections took place during their active season over the course of 3 years. Female wing size was measured as an estimate of body size, and reproductive status was characterized by examining ovary tracheation. Chronological age was determined by measuring transcript abundance of an age-dependent gene. These data were then tested with female abundance at each site and weather data from the estimated larval development period and adulthood (1 week prior to capture). Two sources of weather data were tested to determine which was more appropriate for evaluating impacts on mosquito physiology. All variables were then used to parameterize structural equation models to predict age. RESULTS In comparing city-specific NOAA weather data and site-specific data from HOBO remote temperature and humidity loggers, we found that HOBO data were more tightly associated with body size. This information is useful for justifying the cost of more precise weather monitoring when studying intra-population heterogeneity of eco-physiological factors. We found that body size itself was not significantly associated with age. Of all the variables measured, we found that best fitting model for age included temperature during development, body size, female abundance, and relative humidity in the 1 week prior to capture . The strength of models improved drastically when testing one city at a time, with Hermosillo (the only study city with seasonal dengue transmission) having the best fitting model for age. Despite our finding that there was a bias in the body size of mosquitoes collected alive from the BG sentinel traps that favored large females, there was still sufficient variation in the size of females collected alive to show that inclusion of this entomological indicator improved the predictive capacity of our models. CONCLUSIONS Inclusion of body size data increased the strength of weather-based models for age. Importantly, we found that variation in age was greater within cities than between cities, suggesting that modeling of age must be made on a city-by-city basis. These results contribute to efforts to use weather forecasts to predict changes in the probability of disease transmission by mosquito vectors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eileen H. Jeffrey Gutiérrez
- grid.134563.60000 0001 2168 186XGraduate Interdisciplinary Program in Entomology and Insect Science, University of Arizona, 1140 E South Campus Drive, Forbes 410, Tucson, AZ 85721-0036 USA ,grid.47840.3f0000 0001 2181 7878Dept. of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, 2121 Berkeley Way, 94720-7360 Berkeley, USA
| | - M. A. Riehle
- grid.134563.60000 0001 2168 186XGraduate Interdisciplinary Program in Entomology and Insect Science, University of Arizona, 1140 E South Campus Drive, Forbes 410, Tucson, AZ 85721-0036 USA
| | - K. R. Walker
- grid.134563.60000 0001 2168 186XGraduate Interdisciplinary Program in Entomology and Insect Science, University of Arizona, 1140 E South Campus Drive, Forbes 410, Tucson, AZ 85721-0036 USA
| | - K. C. Ernst
- grid.134563.60000 0001 2168 186XDept. of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, University of Arizona, 1295 N. Martin Ave., PO Box 245210, Tucson, AZ 85724 USA
| | - G. Davidowitz
- grid.134563.60000 0001 2168 186XGraduate Interdisciplinary Program in Entomology and Insect Science, University of Arizona, 1140 E South Campus Drive, Forbes 410, Tucson, AZ 85721-0036 USA
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Dengue Seroprevalence and Factors Associated with Dengue Seropositivity in Petaling District, Malaysia. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:ijerph19127170. [PMID: 35742419 PMCID: PMC9223214 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19127170] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/11/2022] [Revised: 04/28/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a major public health concern, posing huge economic and disease burdens globally. In Malaysia, the incidence of DENV infections has increased significantly over the years. Nevertheless, the passive surveillance mechanism applied may not capture the actual magnitude of DENV infection. There was also a paucity of community-based studies exploring DENV seroprevalence. This study aimed to determine the DENV seroprevalence and the associated factors among the urban population in Petaling district, Malaysia. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted from 18 August to 26 October 2018 with 533 participants recruited. Blood samples were collected and analysed for DENV seropositivity using a composite reference standard comprised of three dengue serological tests. Associated factors were identified by fitting Generalised Linear Mixed Models with binomial error structure and logit link function. DENV seroprevalence obtained was 79.0% (95% CI: 75.2–82.4%). The age-specific DENV seroprevalence showed an increasing trend with advancing age, from 22.7% (95% CI: 9.6–45.0%) for those aged below five years old to 94.9% (95% CI: 81.3–98.7%) for those aged ≥60 years old. Only age group and house level were found to be significant factors associated with DENV seropositivity. The odds of being DENV seropositive generally increased with age, from 13.43 (95% CI: 2.77–65.22) for the 5–9 years old age group to 384.77 (95% CI: 39.27–3769.97) for the ≥60 years old age group, as compared to those aged below 5 years old. For house level, those who lived on the first and second floor (OR: 8.98, 95% CI: 3.16–25.12) and the third floor and above (OR: 4.82, 95% CI: 1.89–12.32) had greater odds of being DENV seropositive compared to those living on the ground floor. This study demonstrated the persistently high DENV seroprevalence among the urban population in Petaling district, which could be useful to evaluate dengue control measures taken and estimate more accurate disease incidence. The associated factors with DENV seropositivity identified could also contribute to undertaking more targeted preventive and control measures.
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Simon LM, Rangel TF. Are Temperature Suitability and Socioeconomic Factors Reliable Predictors of Dengue Transmission in Brazil? FRONTIERS IN TROPICAL DISEASES 2021. [DOI: 10.3389/fitd.2021.758393] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is an ongoing problem, especially in tropical countries. Like many other vector-borne diseases, the spread of dengue is driven by a myriad of climate and socioeconomic factors. Within developing countries, heterogeneities on socioeconomic factors are expected to create variable conditions for dengue transmission. However, the relative role of socioeconomic characteristics and their association with climate in determining dengue prevalence are poorly understood. Here we assembled essential socioeconomic factors over 5570 municipalities across Brazil and assessed their effect on dengue prevalence jointly with a previously predicted temperature suitability for transmission. Using a simultaneous autoregressive approach (SAR), we showed that the variability in the prevalence of dengue cases across Brazil is primarily explained by the combined effect of climate and socioeconomic factors. At some dengue seasons, the effect of temperature on transmission potential showed to be a more significant proxy of dengue cases. Still, socioeconomic factors explained the later increase in dengue prevalence over Brazil. In a heterogeneous country such as Brazil, recognizing the transmission drivers by vectors is a fundamental issue in effectively predicting and combating tropical diseases like dengue. Ultimately, it indicates that not considering socioeconomic factors in disease transmission predictions might compromise efficient surveillance strategies. Our study shows that sanitation, urbanization, and GDP are regional indicators that should be considered along with temperature suitability on dengue transmission, setting effective directions to mosquito-borne disease control.
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Abellana DP. Modelling the interdependent relationships among epidemic antecedents using fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (F-MADM) approaches. OPEN COMPUTER SCIENCE 2021. [DOI: 10.1515/comp-2020-0213] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Abstract
With the high incidence of the dengue epidemic in developing countries, it is crucial to understand its dynamics from a holistic perspective. This paper analyzes different types of antecedents from a cybernetics perspective using a structural modelling approach. The novelty of this paper is twofold. First, it analyzes antecedents that may be social, institutional, environmental, or economic in nature. Since this type of study has not been done in the context of the dengue epidemic modelling, this paper offers a fresh perspective on this topic. Second, the paper pioneers the use of fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (F-MADM) approaches for the modelling of epidemic antecedents. As such, the paper has provided an avenue for the cross-fertilization of knowledge between scholars working in soft computing and epidemiological modelling domains.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dharyll Prince Abellana
- Department of Computer Science , University of the Philippines – Cebu , Cebu City , Cebu , Philippines
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Lippi CA, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Endy TP, Abbott M, Cueva C, Heras F, Polhemus M, Beltrán-Ayala E, Ryan SJ. Exploring the utility of social-ecological and entomological risk factors for dengue infection as surveillance indicators in the dengue hyper-endemic city of Machala, Ecuador. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009257. [PMID: 33740003 PMCID: PMC8011822 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009257] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/31/2020] [Revised: 03/31/2021] [Accepted: 02/19/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
The management of mosquito-borne diseases is a challenge in southern coastal Ecuador, where dengue is hyper-endemic and co-circulates with other arboviral diseases. Prior work in the region has explored social-ecological factors, dengue case data, and entomological indices. In this study, we bring together entomological and epidemiological data to describe links between social-ecological factors associated with risk of dengue transmission at the household level in Machala, Ecuador. Households surveys were conducted from 2014-2017 to assess the presence of adult Aedes aegypti (collected via aspiration) and to enumerate housing conditions, demographics, and mosquito prevention behaviors. Household-level dengue infection status was determined by laboratory diagnostics in 2014-2015. Bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify social-ecological variables associated with household presence of female Ae. aegypti and household dengue infection status, respectively. Aedes aegypti presence was associated with interruptions in water service and weekly trash collection, and household air conditioning was protective against mosquito presence. Presence of female Ae. aegypti was not associated with household dengue infections. We identified shaded patios and head of household employment status as risk factors for household-level dengue infection, while window screening in good condition was identified as protective against dengue infection. These findings add to our understanding of the systems of mosquito-borne disease transmission in Machala, and in the larger region of southern Ecuador, aiding in the development of improved vector surveillance efforts, and targeted interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Catherine A. Lippi
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab Group, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
| | - Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra
- Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research, Department of Montevideo, Montevideo, Uruguay
- Institute for Global Health and Translational Studies, State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
| | - Timothy P. Endy
- Institute for Global Health and Translational Studies, State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York
| | - Mark Abbott
- Institute for Global Health and Translational Studies, State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York
| | - Cinthya Cueva
- Institute for Global Health and Translational Studies, State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
| | - Froilán Heras
- Institute for Global Health and Translational Studies, State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
- Department of Medicine, State University of New York (SUNY) Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
| | - Mark Polhemus
- Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), Washington, D.C., United States of America
| | | | - Sadie J. Ryan
- Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Lab Group, Department of Geography, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America
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Schaber KL, Perkins TA, Lloyd AL, Waller LA, Kitron U, Paz-Soldan VA, Elder JP, Rothman AL, Civitello DJ, Elson WH, Morrison AC, Scott TW, Vazquez-Prokopec GM. Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics. PLoS Comput Biol 2021; 17:e1008627. [PMID: 33465065 PMCID: PMC7845972 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008627] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2020] [Revised: 01/29/2021] [Accepted: 12/11/2020] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual’s contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual’s positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual’s biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers. Human mobility patterns can play an integral role in vector-borne disease dynamics by characterizing an individual’s potential contacts with disease-transmitting vectors. Dengue virus is transmitted by a sedentary vector, but human mobility allows individuals to have contact with mosquitoes at their home and other houses they frequent (their activity space). When accounting for the decreased mobility of symptomatic dengue cases in an agent-based simulation model, however, we found a severely diminished role of the activity space in onward transmission. Those who received the majority of their mosquito contacts outside their home experienced decreases in expected bites and onward transmission when mobility changes were accounted for. Onward transmission was driven by a synergistic relationship between the number of mosquitoes in an individual’s home and their biting suitability, where even those with the highest biting suitability would have limited contribution to transmission given a low number of household mosquitoes. Reactive vector control, which often targets symptomatic cases, could be effective for slowing onward transmission from these cases, but will fail to control virus transmission due to the disproportionate contribution of asymptomatic infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kathryn L. Schaber
- Program of Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - T. Alex Perkins
- Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, Indiana, United States of America
| | - Alun L. Lloyd
- Biomathematics Graduate Program and Department of Mathematics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
| | - Lance A. Waller
- Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Uriel Kitron
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Valerie A. Paz-Soldan
- Department of Global Community Health and Behavioral Sciences, Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - John P. Elder
- Graduate School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, California, United States of America
| | - Alan L. Rothman
- Institute for Immunology and Informatics and Department of Cell and Molecular Biology, University of Rhode Island, Providence, Rhode Island, United States of America
| | - David J. Civitello
- Department of Biology, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
| | - William H. Elson
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Amy C. Morrison
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Thomas W. Scott
- Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Gonzalo M. Vazquez-Prokopec
- Program of Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America
- * E-mail:
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7
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Olson MF, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Juarez JG, Garcia-Luna S, Martin E, Borucki MK, Frank M, Estrada-Franco JG, Rodríguez-Pérez MA, Fernández-Santos NA, Molina-Gamboa GDJ, Carmona Aguirre SD, Reyes-Berrones BDL, Cortés-De la cruz LJ, García-Barrientos A, Huidobro-Guevara RE, Brussolo-Ceballos RM, Ramirez J, Salazar A, Chaves LF, Badillo-Vargas IE, Hamer GL. High Rate of Non-Human Feeding by Aedes aegypti Reduces Zika Virus Transmission in South Texas. Viruses 2020; 12:E453. [PMID: 32316394 PMCID: PMC7232486 DOI: 10.3390/v12040453] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2020] [Revised: 04/13/2020] [Accepted: 04/14/2020] [Indexed: 12/21/2022] Open
Abstract
Mosquito-borne viruses are emerging or re-emerging globally, afflicting millions of people around the world. Aedes aegypti, the yellow fever mosquito, is the principal vector of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, and has well-established populations across tropical and subtropical urban areas of the Americas, including the southern United States. While intense arboviral epidemics have occurred in Mexico and further south in the Americas, local transmission in the United States has been minimal. Here, we study Ae. aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus host feeding patterns and vertebrate host communities in residential environments of South Texas to identify host-utilization relative to availability. Only 31% of Ae. aegypti blood meals were derived from humans, while 50% were from dogs and 19% from other wild and domestic animals. In Cx. quinquefasciatus, 67% of blood meals were derived from chicken, 22% came from dogs, 9% from various wild avian species, and 2% from other mammals including one human, one cat, and one pig. We developed a model for the reproductive number, R0, for Zika virus (ZIKV) in South Texas relative to northern Mexico using human disease data from Tamaulipas, Mexico. We show that ZIKV R0 in South Texas communities could be greater than one if the risk of human exposure to Ae. aegypti bites in these communities is at least 60% that of Northern Mexico communities. The high utilization of non-human vertebrates and low risk of human exposure in South Texas diminishes the outbreak potential for human-amplified urban arboviruses transmitted by Ae. aegypti.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark F. Olson
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA; (M.F.O.); (J.G.J.); (S.G.-L.); (E.M.); (I.E.B.-V.)
| | - Martial L. Ndeffo-Mbah
- Veterinary Integrative Biosciences, College of Veterinary Medicine, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA;
| | - Jose G. Juarez
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA; (M.F.O.); (J.G.J.); (S.G.-L.); (E.M.); (I.E.B.-V.)
| | - Selene Garcia-Luna
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA; (M.F.O.); (J.G.J.); (S.G.-L.); (E.M.); (I.E.B.-V.)
| | - Estelle Martin
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA; (M.F.O.); (J.G.J.); (S.G.-L.); (E.M.); (I.E.B.-V.)
| | - Monica K. Borucki
- Biosciences and Biotechnology Division, Chemistry, Materials and Life Sciences Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA; (M.K.B.); (M.F.)
| | - Matthias Frank
- Biosciences and Biotechnology Division, Chemistry, Materials and Life Sciences Directorate, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA; (M.K.B.); (M.F.)
| | - José Guillermo Estrada-Franco
- Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Centro de Biotecnología Genómica, Cd. Reynosa 88710, Tamaulipas, Mexico; (J.G.E.-F.); (M.A.R.-P.); (N.A.F.-S.)
| | - Mario A. Rodríguez-Pérez
- Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Centro de Biotecnología Genómica, Cd. Reynosa 88710, Tamaulipas, Mexico; (J.G.E.-F.); (M.A.R.-P.); (N.A.F.-S.)
| | - Nadia A. Fernández-Santos
- Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Centro de Biotecnología Genómica, Cd. Reynosa 88710, Tamaulipas, Mexico; (J.G.E.-F.); (M.A.R.-P.); (N.A.F.-S.)
| | - Gloria de Jesús Molina-Gamboa
- Secretary of Health of the State of Tamaulipas, Epidemiology Directorate, Cd. Victoria 87000, Tamaulipas, Mexico; (G.d.J.M.-G.); (S.D.C.A.); (B.d.L.R.-B.); (L.J.C.-D.l.c.); (A.G.-B.); (R.E.H.-G.); (R.M.B.-C.)
| | - Santos Daniel Carmona Aguirre
- Secretary of Health of the State of Tamaulipas, Epidemiology Directorate, Cd. Victoria 87000, Tamaulipas, Mexico; (G.d.J.M.-G.); (S.D.C.A.); (B.d.L.R.-B.); (L.J.C.-D.l.c.); (A.G.-B.); (R.E.H.-G.); (R.M.B.-C.)
| | - Bernardita de Lourdes Reyes-Berrones
- Secretary of Health of the State of Tamaulipas, Epidemiology Directorate, Cd. Victoria 87000, Tamaulipas, Mexico; (G.d.J.M.-G.); (S.D.C.A.); (B.d.L.R.-B.); (L.J.C.-D.l.c.); (A.G.-B.); (R.E.H.-G.); (R.M.B.-C.)
| | - Luis Javier Cortés-De la cruz
- Secretary of Health of the State of Tamaulipas, Epidemiology Directorate, Cd. Victoria 87000, Tamaulipas, Mexico; (G.d.J.M.-G.); (S.D.C.A.); (B.d.L.R.-B.); (L.J.C.-D.l.c.); (A.G.-B.); (R.E.H.-G.); (R.M.B.-C.)
| | - Alejandro García-Barrientos
- Secretary of Health of the State of Tamaulipas, Epidemiology Directorate, Cd. Victoria 87000, Tamaulipas, Mexico; (G.d.J.M.-G.); (S.D.C.A.); (B.d.L.R.-B.); (L.J.C.-D.l.c.); (A.G.-B.); (R.E.H.-G.); (R.M.B.-C.)
| | - Raúl E. Huidobro-Guevara
- Secretary of Health of the State of Tamaulipas, Epidemiology Directorate, Cd. Victoria 87000, Tamaulipas, Mexico; (G.d.J.M.-G.); (S.D.C.A.); (B.d.L.R.-B.); (L.J.C.-D.l.c.); (A.G.-B.); (R.E.H.-G.); (R.M.B.-C.)
| | - Regina M. Brussolo-Ceballos
- Secretary of Health of the State of Tamaulipas, Epidemiology Directorate, Cd. Victoria 87000, Tamaulipas, Mexico; (G.d.J.M.-G.); (S.D.C.A.); (B.d.L.R.-B.); (L.J.C.-D.l.c.); (A.G.-B.); (R.E.H.-G.); (R.M.B.-C.)
| | - Josue Ramirez
- Health Department, City of Harlingen, TX 78550, USA;
| | - Aaron Salazar
- Hidalgo County Health & Human Services, Edinburg, TX 78539, USA;
| | - Luis F. Chaves
- Instituto Costarricense de Investigación y Enseñanza en Nutrición y Salud (INCIENSA), Apartado Postal, Tres Ríos, Cartago 4-2250, Costa Rica;
| | - Ismael E. Badillo-Vargas
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA; (M.F.O.); (J.G.J.); (S.G.-L.); (E.M.); (I.E.B.-V.)
| | - Gabriel L. Hamer
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USA; (M.F.O.); (J.G.J.); (S.G.-L.); (E.M.); (I.E.B.-V.)
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Kang JY, Aldstadt J. Using Multiple Scale Spatio-Temporal Patterns for Validating Spatially Explicit Agent-Based Models. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE : IJGIS 2018; 33:193-213. [PMID: 31695574 PMCID: PMC6834355 DOI: 10.1080/13658816.2018.1535121] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2018] [Accepted: 10/09/2018] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs) have been widely utilized to simulate the dynamics of spatial processes that involve the interactions of individual agents. The assumptions embedded in the ABMs may be responsible for uncertainty in the model outcomes. To ensure the reliability of the outcomes in terms of their space-time patterns, model validation should be performed. In this paper, we propose the use of multiple scale spatio-temporal patterns for validating spatially explicit ABMs. We evaluated several specifications of vector-borne disease transmission models by comparing space-time patterns of model outcomes to observations at multiple scales via the sum of root mean square error (RMSE) measurement. The results indicate that specifications of the spatial configurations of residential area and immunity status of individual humans are of importance to reproduce observed patterns of dengue outbreaks at multiple space-time scales. Our approach to using multiple scale spatio-temporal patterns can help not only to understand the dynamic associations between model specifications and model outcomes, but also to validate spatially explicit ABMs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jeon-Young Kang
- Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York, Buffalo, USA
| | - Jared Aldstadt
- Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York, Buffalo, USA
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Neighborhood Violence Impacts Disease Control and Surveillance: Case Study of Cali, Colombia from 2014 to 2016. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2018; 15:ijerph15102144. [PMID: 30274270 PMCID: PMC6211120 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph15102144] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2018] [Revised: 09/26/2018] [Accepted: 09/26/2018] [Indexed: 01/02/2023]
Abstract
Arboviruses are responsible for a large burden of disease globally and are thus subject to intense epidemiological scrutiny. However, a variable notably absent from most epidemiological analyses has been the impact of violence on arboviral transmission and surveillance. Violence impedes surveillance and delivery of health and preventative services and affects an individual’s health-related behaviors when survival takes priority. Moreover, low and middle-income countries bear a disproportionately high burden of violence and related health outcomes, including vector borne diseases. To better understand the epidemiology of arboviral outbreaks in Cali, Colombia, we georeferenced chikungunya (CHIKV), dengue (DENV), and Zika (ZIKV) viral cases from The National System of Surveillance in Public Health between October 2014 and April 2016. We extracted homicide data from the municipal monthly reports and kernel density of homicide distribution from IdeasPaz. Crucially, an overall higher risk of homicide is associated with increased risk of reported DENV, lower rates of acute testing, and higher rates of lab versus clinical discordance. In the context of high violence as a potential barrier to access to preventive health services, a community approach to improve health and peace should be considered.
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Arthur RF, Gurley ES, Salje H, Bloomfield LSP, Jones JH. Contact structure, mobility, environmental impact and behaviour: the importance of social forces to infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 2017; 372:rstb.2016.0454. [PMID: 28289265 DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2016.0454] [Citation(s) in RCA: 48] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/22/2016] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Human factors, including contact structure, movement, impact on the environment and patterns of behaviour, can have significant influence on the emergence of novel infectious diseases and the transmission and amplification of established ones. As anthropogenic climate change alters natural systems and global economic forces drive land-use and land-cover change, it becomes increasingly important to understand both the ecological and social factors that impact infectious disease outcomes for human populations. While the field of disease ecology explicitly studies the ecological aspects of infectious disease transmission, the effects of the social context on zoonotic pathogen spillover and subsequent human-to-human transmission are comparatively neglected in the literature. The social sciences encompass a variety of disciplines and frameworks for understanding infectious diseases; however, here we focus on four primary areas of social systems that quantitatively and qualitatively contribute to infectious diseases as social-ecological systems. These areas are social mixing and structure, space and mobility, geography and environmental impact, and behaviour and behaviour change. Incorporation of these social factors requires empirical studies for parametrization, phenomena characterization and integrated theoretical modelling of social-ecological interactions. The social-ecological system that dictates infectious disease dynamics is a complex system rich in interacting variables with dynamically significant heterogeneous properties. Future discussions about infectious disease spillover and transmission in human populations need to address the social context that affects particular disease systems by identifying and measuring qualitatively important drivers.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ronan F Arthur
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - Emily S Gurley
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.,International Centre for Diarrhoeal Diseases Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR, B), Dhaka, Bangladesh
| | - Henrik Salje
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.,Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France
| | - Laura S P Bloomfield
- Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.,Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
| | - James H Jones
- Department of Earth Systems Science, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.,Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, London, UK
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