Application of Probabilistic Multiple-Bias Analyses to a Cohort- and a Case-Control Study on the Association between Pandemrix™ and Narcolepsy

Narcolepsy and H1N1 influenza immunology a decade later: What have we learned?

In the wake of the A/California/7/2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic vaccination campaigns in 2009-2010, an increased incidence of the chronic sleep-wake disorder narcolepsy was detected in children and adolescents in several European countries. Over the last decade, in-depth epidemiological and immunological studies have been conducted to investigate this association, which have advanced our understanding of the events underpinning the observed risk. Narcolepsy with cataplexy (defined as type-1 narcolepsy, NT1) is characterized by an irreversible and chronic deficiency of hypocretin peptides in the hypothalamus. The multifactorial etiology is thought to include genetic predisposition, head trauma, environmental triggers, and/or infections (including influenza virus infections), and an increased risk was observed following administration of the A/California/7/2009 H1N1 vaccine Pandemrix (GSK). An autoimmune origin of NT1 is broadly assumed. This is based on its strong association with a predisposing allele (the human leucocyte antigen DQB1*0602) carried by the large majority of NT1 patients, and on links with other immune-related genetic markers affecting the risk of NT1. Presently, hypotheses on the underlying potential immunological mechanisms center on molecular mimicry between hypocretin and peptides within the A/California/7/2009 H1N1 virus antigen. This molecular mimicry may instigate a cross-reactive autoimmune response targeting hypocretin-producing neurons. Local CD4⁺ T-cell responses recognizing peptides from hypocretin are thought to play a central role in the response. In this model, cross-reactive DQB1*0602-restricted T cells from the periphery would be activated to cross the blood-brain barrier by rare, and possibly pathogen-instigated, inflammatory processes in the brain. Current hypotheses suggest that activation and expansion of cross-reactive T-cells by H1N1/09 influenza infection could have been amplified following the administration of the adjuvanted vaccine, giving rise to a “two-hit” hypothesis. The collective in silico, in vitro, and preclinical in vivo data from recent and ongoing research have progressively refined the hypothetical model of sequential immunological events, and filled multiple knowledge gaps. Though no definitive conclusions can be drawn, the mechanistical model plausibly explains the increased risk of NT1 observed following the 2009-2010 H1N1 pandemic and subsequent vaccination campaign, as outlined in this review.

A systematic review of quantitative bias analysis applied to epidemiological research

BACKGROUND

Quantitative bias analysis (QBA) measures study errors in terms of direction, magnitude and uncertainty. This systematic review aimed to describe how QBA has been applied in epidemiological research in 2006-19.

METHODS

We searched PubMed for English peer-reviewed studies applying QBA to real-data applications. We also included studies citing selected sources or which were identified in a previous QBA review in pharmacoepidemiology. For each study, we extracted the rationale, methodology, bias-adjusted results and interpretation and assessed factors associated with reproducibility.

RESULTS

Of the 238 studies, the majority were embedded within papers whose main inferences were drawn from conventional approaches as secondary (sensitivity) analyses to quantity-specific biases (52%) or to assess the extent of bias required to shift the point estimate to the null (25%); 10% were standalone papers. The most common approach was probabilistic (57%). Misclassification was modelled in 57%, uncontrolled confounder(s) in 40% and selection bias in 17%. Most did not consider multiple biases or correlations between errors. When specified, bias parameters came from the literature (48%) more often than internal validation studies (29%). The majority (60%) of analyses resulted in >10% change from the conventional point estimate; however, most investigators (63%) did not alter their original interpretation. Degree of reproducibility related to inclusion of code, formulas, sensitivity analyses and supplementary materials, as well as the QBA rationale.

CONCLUSIONS

QBA applications were rare though increased over time. Future investigators should reference good practices and include details to promote transparency and to serve as a reference for other researchers.

Incidence rates of narcolepsy diagnoses in Taiwan, Canada, and Europe: The use of statistical simulation to evaluate methods for the rapid assessment of potential safety issues on a population level in the SOMNIA study

Background & objectives

Vaccine safety signals require investigation, which may be done rapidly at the population level using ecological studies, before embarking on hypothesis-testing studies. Incidence rates were used to assess a signal of narcolepsy following AS03-adjuvanted monovalent pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza vaccination among children and adolescents in Sweden and Finland in 2010. We explored the utility of ecological data to assess incidence of narcolepsy following exposure to pandemic H1N1 virus or vaccination in 10 sites that used different vaccines, adjuvants, and had varying vaccine coverage.

Methods

We calculated incidence rates of diagnosed narcolepsy for periods defined by influenza virus circulation and vaccination campaign dates, and used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing the periods during which wild-type virus circulated and after the start of vaccination campaigns vs. the period prior to pH1N1 virus circulation. We used electronic health care data from Sweden, Denmark, the United Kingdom, Canada (3 provinces), Taiwan, Netherlands, and Spain (2 regions) from 2003 to 2013. We investigated interactions between age group and adjuvant in European sites and conducted a simulation study to investigate how vaccine coverage, age, and the interval from onset to diagnosis may impact the ability to detect safety signals.

Results

Incidence rates of narcolepsy varied by age, continent, and period. Only in Taiwan and Sweden were significant time-period-by-age-group interactions observed. Associations were found for children in Taiwan (following pH1N1 virus circulation) and Sweden (following vaccination). Simulations showed that the individual-level relative risk of narcolepsy was underestimated using ecological methods comparing post- vs. pre-vaccination periods; this effect was attenuated with higher vaccine coverage and a shorter interval from disease onset to diagnosis.

Conclusions

Ecological methods can be useful for vaccine safety assessment but the results are influenced by diagnostic delay and vaccine coverage. Because ecological methods assess risk at the population level, these methods should be treated as signal-generating methods and drawing conclusions regarding individual-level risk should be avoided.

A systematic review and meta-analysis on the safety of newly adjuvanted vaccines among older adults

INTRODUCTION

New adjuvants have been developed to improve the efficacy of vaccines and for dose-sparing capacity and may overcome immuno senescence in the elderly. We reviewed the safety of newly-adjuvanted vaccines in older adults.

METHODS

We searched Medline for clinical trials (CTs) including new adjuvant systems (AS01, AS02, AS03, or MF59), used in older adults, published between 01/1995 and 09/2017. Safety outcomes were: serious adverse events (SAEs); solicited local and general AEs (reactogenicity); unsolicited AEs; and potentially immune-mediated diseases (pIMDs). Standard random effects meta-analyses were conducted by type of safety event and adjuvant type, reporting Relative Risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

RESULTS

We identified 1040 publications, from which we selected 7, 7, and 12 CTs on AS01/AS02, AS03 and MF59, respectively. 47,602 study participants received newly-adjuvanted vaccine and 44,521 control vaccine, or placebo. Rates of SAEs (RR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.96-1.02), deaths (RR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.92-1.06) and pIMDs (RR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.79-1.1) were comparable in newly-adjuvanted and control groups. Vaccine-related SAEs occurred in <1% of the subjects in both groups. The reactogenicity of AS01/AS02 and AS03 adjuvanted vaccines was higher compared to control vaccines, whereas MF59-adjuvanted vaccines resulted only in more pain. Grade 3 reactogenicity was reported infrequently, with fatigue (RR = 2.48, 95% CI = 1.69-3.64), headache (RR = 2.94, 95% CI = 1.24-6.95), and myalgia (RR = 2.68, 95% CI = 1.86-3.80) occurring more frequently in newly-adjuvanted groups. Unsolicited AEs occurred slightly more frequently in newly-adjuvanted groups (RR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.00-1.08).

CONCLUSIONS

Our review suggests that, within the clinical trial setting, the use of new adjuvants in older adults has not led to any safety concerns, with no increase in SAEs or fatalities. Higher rates for solicited AEs were observed, especially for AS01/AS02 and AS03 adjuvanted vaccines, but AEs were mostly mild and transient. Further evidence will need to come from the use of new adjuvants in the real-world setting, where larger numbers can be studied to potentially detect rare reactions.

Narcolepsy Associated with Pandemrix Vaccine

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

After the connection between AS03-adjuvanted pandemic H1N1 vaccine Pandemrix and narcolepsy was recognized in 2010, research on narcolepsy has been more intensive than ever before. The purpose of this review is to provide the reader with current concepts and recent findings on the Pandemrix-associated narcolepsy.

RECENT FINDINGS

After the Pandemrix vaccination campaign in 2009-2010, the risk of narcolepsy was increased 5- to 14-fold in children and adolescents and 2- to 7-fold in adults. According to observational studies, the risk of narcolepsy was elevated for 2 years after the Pandemrix vaccination. Some confounding factors and potential diagnostic biases may influence the observed narcolepsy risk in some studies, but it is unlikely that they would explain the clearly increased incidence in all the countries where Pandemrix was used. An increased risk of narcolepsy after natural H1N1 infection was reported from China, where pandemic influenza vaccination was not used. There is more and more evidence that narcolepsy is an autoimmune disease. All Pandemrix-associated narcolepsy cases have been positive for HLA class II DQB1*06:02 and novel predisposing genetic factors directly linking to the immune system have been identified. Even though recent studies have identified autoantibodies against multiple neuronal structures and other host proteins and peptides, no specific autoantigens that would explain the disease mechanism in narcolepsy have been identified thus far. There was a marked increase in the incidence of narcolepsy after Pandemrix vaccination, especially in adolescents, but also in young adults and younger children. All vaccine-related cases were of narcolepsy type 1 characterized by hypocretin deficiency in the central nervous system. The disease phenotype and the severity of symptoms varied considerably in children and adolescents suffering from Pandemrix-associated narcolepsy, but they were indistinguishable from the symptoms of idiopathic narcolepsy. Narcolepsy type 1 is most likely an autoimmune disease, but the mechanisms have remained elusive.

Incidence of narcolepsy after H1N1 influenza and vaccinations: Systematic review and meta-analysis

An increased incidence of narcolepsy was seen in many countries after the pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccination campaign in 2009-2010. The H1N1 vaccine - narcolepsy connection is based on observational studies that are prone to various biases, e.g., confounding by H1N1 infection, and ascertainment, recall and selection biases. A direct pathogenic link has, however, remained elusive. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to analyze the magnitude of H1N1 vaccination related risk and to examine if there was any association with H1N1 infection itself. We searched all articles from PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus, and other relevant sources reporting the incidence and risk of post-vaccine narcolepsy. In our paper, we show that the risk appears to be limited to only one vaccine (Pandemrix^®). During the first year after vaccination, the relative risk of narcolepsy was increased 5 to 14-fold in children and adolescents and 2 to 7-fold in adults. The vaccine attributable risk in children and adolescents was around 1 per 18,400 vaccine doses. Studies from Finland and Sweden also appear to demonstrate an extended risk of narcolepsy into the second year following vaccination, but such conclusions should be interpreted with a word of caution due to possible biases. Benefits of immunization outweigh the risk of vaccination-associated narcolepsy, which remains a rare disease.

Long-Term Persistence of Cell-Mediated and Humoral Responses to A(H1N1)pdm09 Influenza Virus Vaccines and the Role of the AS03 Adjuvant System in Adults during Two Randomized Controlled Trials

We investigated the role of AS03_A (here AS03), an α-tocopherol oil-in-water emulsion-based adjuvant system, on the long-term persistence of humoral and cell-mediated immune responses to A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza vaccines. In two studies, a total of 261 healthy adults (≤60 years old) were randomized to receive two doses of AS03-adjuvanted vaccine containing 3.75 μg of hemagglutinin (HA) or nonadjuvanted vaccine containing 15 μg of hemagglutinin (in study A) or 3.75 μg of hemagglutinin (in study B) 21 days apart. Hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody, memory B-cell, and CD4⁺/CD8⁺ T-cell responses were characterized up to 1 year following dose 1. We also assessed the effects of age and seasonal influenza vaccination history. AS03-adjuvanted (3.75 μg HA) vaccine and nonadjuvanted vaccine at 15 μg but not at 3.75 μg HA elicited HI antibody responses persisting at levels that continued to meet European licensure criteria through month 12. At month 12, the geometric mean titer for AS03-adjuvanted vaccine was similar to that for nonadjuvanted (15-μg) vaccine in study A (1:86 and 1:88, respectively) and higher than that for nonadjuvanted (3.75-μg) vaccine in study B (1:77 and 1:35, respectively). A(H1N1)pdm09-specific CD4⁺ T-cell and B-cell responses were stronger in AS03-adjuvanted groups and persisted only in these groups for 12 months at levels exceeding prevaccination frequencies. Advancing age and a seasonal vaccination history tended to reduce HI antibody and memory B-cell responses and, albeit less consistently, CD4⁺ T-cell responses. Thus, AS03 seemed to enhance the persistence of humoral and cell-mediated responses to A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine, allowing for antigen sparing and mitigating potential negative effects of age and previous seasonal vaccination. (These studies have been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT00968539 and NCT00989287.)

Narcolepsy and hypersomnia in Norwegian children and young adults following the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Associations between influenza infection and sleep disorders are poorly studied. We investigated if pandemic influenza infection or vaccination with Pandemrix in 2009/2010 was associated with narcolepsy or hypersomnia in children and young adults.

METHODS

We followed the Norwegian population under age 30 from January 2008 through December 2012 by linking national health registry data. Narcolepsy diagnoses were validated using hospital records. Risks of narcolepsy or hypersomnia were estimated as adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) in Cox regression models with influenza infection and vaccination as time-dependent exposures.

RESULTS

Among the 1,638,526 persons under age 30 in Norway in 2009, 3.6% received a physician diagnosis of influenza during the pandemic, while 41.9% were vaccinated against pandemic influenza. Between October 1st 2009 and December 31st 2012, 72 persons had onset of narcolepsy and 305 were diagnosed with hypersomnia. The risk of a sleep disorder was associated with infection during the first six months, adjusted HR 3.31 with 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-10.79 for narcolepsy and adjusted HR 3.13 (95% CI, 1.12-8.76) for hypersomnia. The risk of narcolepsy was strongly associated with vaccination during the first six months adjusted HR 17.21 (95% CI, 6.28-47.14), while the adjusted HR for hypersomnia was 1.54 (95% CI, 0.81-2.93).

CONCLUSIONS

The study confirms an increased HR of narcolepsy following pandemic vaccination. Slightly increased HRs of narcolepsy and hypersomnia are also seen after influenza infection. However, the role of infection should be viewed with caution due to underreporting of influenza.