Hindcasting Historical Breeding Conditions for an Endangered Salamander in Ephemeral Wetlands of the Southeastern USA: Implications of Climate Change

Forecasting the flooding dynamics of flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands under future climate change scenarios

Ephemeral wetlands are globally important systems that are regulated by regular cycles of wetting and drying, which are primarily controlled by responses to relatively short-term weather events (e.g., precipitation and evapotranspiration). Climate change is predicted to have significant effects on many ephemeral wetland systems and the organisms that depend on them through altered filling or drying dates that impact hydroperiod. To examine the potential effects of climate change on pine flatwoods wetlands in the southeastern United States, we created statistical models describing wetland hydrologic regime using an approximately 8-year history of water level monitoring and a variety of climate data inputs. We then assessed how hydrology may change in the future by projecting models forward (2025-2100) under six future climate scenarios (three climate models each with two emission scenarios). We used the model results to assess future breeding conditions for the imperiled Reticulated Flatwoods Salamander (Ambystoma bishopi), which breeds in many of the study wetlands. We found that models generally fit the data well and had good predictability across both training and testing data. Across all models and climate scenarios, there was substantial variation in the predicted suitability for flatwoods salamander reproduction. However, wetlands with longer hydroperiods tended to have fewer model iterations that predicted at least five consecutive years of reproductive failure (an important metric for population persistence). Understanding potential future risk to flatwoods salamander populations can be used to guide conservation and management actions for this imperiled species.

Complex Organisms Must Deal with Complex Threats: How Does Amphibian Conservation Deal with Biphasic Life Cycles?

The unprecedented rate of global amphibian decline is attributed to The Anthropocene, with human actions triggering the Sixth Mass Extinction Event. Amphibians have suffered some of the most extreme declines, and their lack of response to conservation actions may reflect challenges faced by taxa that exhibit biphasic life histories. There is an urgent need to ensure that conservation measures are cost-effective and yield positive outcomes. Many conservation actions have failed to meet their intended goals of bolstering populations to ensure the persistence of species into the future. We suggest that past conservation efforts have not considered how different threats influence multiple life stages of amphibians, potentially leading to suboptimal outcomes for their conservation. Our review highlights the multitude of threats amphibians face at each life stage and the conservation actions used to mitigate these threats. We also draw attention to the paucity of studies that have employed multiple actions across more than one life stage. Conservation programs for biphasic amphibians, and the research that guides them, lack a multi-pronged approach to deal with multiple threats across the lifecycle. Conservation management programs must recognise the changing threat landscape for biphasic amphibians to reduce their notoriety as the most threatened vertebrate taxa globally.

Early Development Drives Variation in Amphibian Vulnerability to Global Change

Understanding how natural selection determines species’ life histories can reveal their resilience or sensitivity to anthropogenic changes. For example, the safe harbor hypothesis posits that natural selection will favor life histories that maximize the time spent in the safest life stages; a second theoretical prediction suggests that species with complex life histories will maximize the growth potential of a life stage relative to its safety. Amphibians exhibit complex life histories, with a diversity of developmental strategies occurring across taxa. Many strategies involve the complete elimination of a particular life stage, and thus provide an excellent opportunity to evaluate the main tenets of the safe harbor hypothesis and understand the consequences of this developmental variation for conservation of threatened amphibians. We develop a general framework for understanding developmental life histories of amphibians – including the special cases of paedomorphism, direct development, and viviparity – based on the relative growth potential and safety offered by aquatic and terrestrial habitat, which we tested using a global trait database. We then compare the IUCN Red List status of species differing in developmental mode, revealing that most fully aquatic species and species with an aquatic larval stage are currently of Least Concern, despite the fact that freshwater habitats are being lost at a much faster rate compared with terrestrial ecosystems. The higher proportion of direct developing and viviparous species that are threatened can be attributed to their smaller ranges, the fact that they are more likely to be found in rainforest habitats, and their relatively slow life histories. We conclude that an amphibian’s developmental mode reflects the relative costs and benefits of different habitats, and that this could contribute to the resilience or vulnerability of amphibians to future anthropogenic change.

Using historical dip net data to infer absence of flatwoods salamanders in stochastic environments

Local extinction and undetected presence are two very different biological phenomena, but they can be challenging to differentiate. Stochastic environments hamper the development of standardized monitoring schemes for wildlife, and make it more challenging to plan and evaluate the success of conservation efforts. To avoid reintroductions of species at risk that could jeopardize extant populations, managers attempting translocation events require a higher level of confidence that a failure to confirm presence represents a true absence. For many pond breeding amphibians, monitoring of the breeding population occurs indirectly through larval surveys. Larval development and successful recruitment only occurs after a sequence of appropriate environmental conditions, thus it is possible for a breeding population of adults to exist at a site but for detectability of the species to be functionally zero. We investigate how annual variability in detection influences long-term monitoring efforts of Reticulated Flatwoods Salamanders (Ambystoma bishopi) breeding in 29 wetlands in Florida. Using 8 years of historic dip net data, we simulate plausible monitoring scenarios that incorporate environmental stochasticity into estimates of detection probability. We found that annual variation in environmental conditions precluded a high degree of certainty in predicting site status for low-intensity monitoring schemes. Uncertainty was partly alleviated by increasing survey effort, but even at the highest level of sampling intensity assessed, multiple years of monitoring are required to confidently determine presence/absence at a site. Combined with assessments of habitat quality and landscape connectivity, our results can be used to identify sites suitable for reintroduction efforts. Our methodologies can be generally applied to increase the effectiveness of surveys for diverse organisms for which annual variability in detectability is known.

Population structure, gene flow, and sex-biased dispersal in the reticulated flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma bishopi): Implications for translocations

Understanding patterns of gene flow and population structure is vital for managing threatened and endangered species. The reticulated flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma bishopi) is an endangered species with a fragmented range; therefore, assessing connectivity and genetic population structure can inform future conservation. Samples collected from breeding sites (n = 5) were used to calculate structure and gene flow using three marker types: single nucleotide polymorphisms isolated from potential immune genes (SNPs), nuclear data from the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), and the mitochondrial control region. At a broad geographical scale, nuclear data (SNP and MHC) supported gene flow and little structure (F ST = 0.00-0.09) while mitochondrial structure was high (ΦST = 0.15-0.36) and gene flow was low. Mitochondrial markers also exhibited isolation by distance (IBD) between sites (p = 0.01) and within one site (p = 0.04) while nuclear markers did not show IBD between or within sites (p = 0.17 and p = 0.66). Due to the discordant results between nuclear and mitochondrial markers, our results suggest male-biased dispersal. Overall, salamander populations showed little genetic differentiation and structure with some gene flow, at least historically, among sampling sites. Given historic gene flow and a lack of population structure, carefully considered reintroductions could begin to expand the limited range of this salamander to ensure its long-term resilience.

Manipulating water for amphibian conservation

Amphibian populations globally are in decline. One great threat is the abstraction of water resources that alter surface-water hydrology. Conservation actions aimed at restoring or manipulating surface water are employed as a management tool, but empirical evidence on the effectiveness of these approaches is scarce. In this systematic review, we summarized the global experience of manipulating water for amphibian conservation. We explored examples of manipulating water to conserve amphibian species and communities. Approaches varied in their frequency of implementation and in their success. Extending hydroperiod to match larval requirements showed encouraging results, as did off-season drying to control predators. Spraying water into the environment showed several potential applications, but successes were limited. Despite some promising interventions, we identified few (n = 17) empirically supported examples of successful water manipulation to benefit amphibians. It is unclear whether this stems from publication bias or if it is an artifact of language selection. However, manipulating water shows some potential in amphibian conservation, particularly at sites with a proximal water source and in regions where aridity is increasing due to climate change. Regardless of the scale of the intervention or its perceived probability of success, high-quality reporting of empirical results will further understanding of how water manipulations can benefit threatened amphibian populations.

Depauperate major histocompatibility complex variation in the endangered reticulated flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma bishopi)

Reticulated flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma bishopi) populations began decreasing dramatically in the 1900s. Contemporary populations are small, isolated, and may be susceptible to inbreeding and reduced adaptive potential because of low genetic variation. Genetic variation at immune genes is especially important as it influences disease susceptibility and adaptation to emerging infectious pathogens, a central conservation concern for declining amphibians. We collected samples from across the extant range of this salamander to examine genetic variation at major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class Iα and IIβ exons as well as the mitochondrial control region. We screened tail or toe tissue for ranavirus, a pathogen associated with amphibian declines worldwide. Overall, we found low MHC variation when compared to other amphibian species and did not detect ranavirus at any site. MHC class Iα sequencing revealed only three alleles with a nucleotide diversity of 0.001, while MHC class IIβ had five alleles with a with nucleotide diversity of 0.004. However, unique variation still exists across this species' range with private alleles at three sites. Unlike MHC diversity, mitochondrial variation was comparable to levels estimated for other amphibians with nine haplotypes observed, including one haplotype shared across all sites. We hypothesize that a combination of a historic disease outbreak and a population bottleneck may have contributed to low MHC diversity while maintaining higher levels of mitochondrial DNA variation. Ultimately, MHC data indicated that the reticulated flatwoods salamander may be at an elevated risk from infectious diseases due to low levels of immunogenetic variation necessary to combat novel pathogens.

Compounding effects of climate change reduce population viability of a montane amphibian

Anthropogenic climate change presents challenges and opportunities to the growth, reproduction, and survival of individuals throughout their life cycles. Demographic compensation among life-history stages has the potential to buffer populations from decline, but alternatively, compounding negative effects can lead to accelerated population decline and extinction. In montane ecosystems of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, increasing temperatures are resulting in a transition from snow-dominated to rain-dominated precipitation events, reducing snowpack. For ectotherms such as amphibians, warmer winters can reduce the frequency of critical minimum temperatures and increase the length of summer growing seasons, benefiting post-metamorphic stages, but may also increase metabolic costs during winter months, which could decrease survival. Lower snowpack levels also result in wetlands that dry sooner or more frequently in the summer, increasing larval desiccation risk. To evaluate how these challenges and opportunities compound within a species' life history, we collected demographic data on Cascades frog (Rana cascadae) in Olympic National Park in Washington state to parameterize stage-based stochastic matrix population models under current and future (A1B, 2040s, and 2080s) environmental conditions. We estimated the proportion of reproductive effort lost each year due to drying using watershed-specific hydrologic models, and coupled this with an analysis that relates 15 yr of R. cascadae abundance data with a suite of climate variables. We estimated the current population growth (λ_s ) to be 0.97 (95% CI 0.84-1.13), but predict that λ_s will decline under continued climate warming, resulting in a 62% chance of extinction by the 2080s because of compounding negative effects on early and late life history stages. By the 2080s, our models predict that larval mortality will increase by 17% as a result of increased pond drying, and adult survival will decrease by 7% as winter length and summer precipitation continue to decrease. We find that reduced larval survival drives initial declines in the 2040s, but further declines in the 2080s are compounded by decreases in adult survival. Our results demonstrate the need to understand the potential for compounding or compensatory effects within different life history stages to exacerbate or buffer the effects of climate change on population growth rates through time.

Feral swine Sus scrofa: a new threat to the remaining breeding wetlands of the Vulnerable reticulated flatwoods salamander Ambystoma bishopi

Feral swine Sus scrofa have been implicated as a major threat to sensitive habitats and ecosystems as well as threatened wildlife. Nevertheless, direct and indirect impacts on threatened species (especially small, fossorial species) are not well documented. The decline of the U.S. federally endangered reticulated flatwoods salamander Ambystoma bishopi, categorized as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List, has been rapid and there are few remaining breeding locations for this species. The flatwoods salamander depends on complex herbaceous vegetation in all life stages, including eggs, larvae and adults. Historically sets of hog tracks have been observed only occasionally in the vicinity of monitored reticulated flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands, and damage to the wetlands had never been recorded. However, during the autumn–winter breeding season of 2013–2014 we observed a large increase in hog sign, including extensive rooting damage, in known flatwoods salamander breeding wetlands. Our objective was to assess the amount of hog sign and damage in these wetlands and to take corrective management actions to curb additional impacts. Of 28 wetlands surveyed for hog sign, presence was recorded at 68%, and damage at 54%. Of the 11 sites known to be occupied by flatwoods salamanders in 2013–2014, 64% had presence, and 55% had damage. We found that regular monitoring of disturbance in wetland habitats was a valuable tool to determine when intervention was needed and to assess the effectiveness of intervention. Habitat damage caused by feral hogs poses a potentially serious threat to the salamanders, which needs to be mitigated using methods to control and exclude hogs from this sensitive habitat.