Estimation of Uncertainties in the Global Distance Test (GDT_TS) for CASP Models

Bayesian Active Learning for Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification in Protein Docking

Ab initio protein docking represents a major challenge for optimizing a noisy and costly "black box"-like function in a high-dimensional space. Despite progress in this field, there is a lack of rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ). To fill the gap, we introduce a novel algorithm, Bayesian active learning (BAL), for optimization and UQ of such black-box functions with applications to flexible protein docking. BAL directly models the posterior distribution of the global optimum (i.e., native structures) with active sampling and posterior estimation iteratively feeding each other. Furthermore, it uses complex normal modes to span a homogeneous, Euclidean conformation space suitable for high-dimensional optimization and constructs funnel-like energy models for quality estimation of encounter complexes. Over a protein-docking benchmark set and a CAPRI set including homology docking, we establish that BAL significantly improves against starting points from rigid docking and refinements by particle swarm optimization, providing a top-3 near-native prediction for one third targets. Quality assessment empowered with UQ leads to tight quality intervals with half range around 25% of the actual interface root-mean-square deviation and confidence level at 85%. BAL's estimated probability of a prediction being near-native achieves binary classification AUROC at 0.93 and area under the precision recall curve over 0.60 (compared to 0.50 and 0.14, respectively, by chance), which also improves ranking predictions. This study represents the first UQ solution for protein docking, with rigorous theoretical frameworks and comprehensive empirical assessments.

Sequential search leads to faster, more efficient fragment-based de novo protein structure prediction

Motivation

Most current de novo structure prediction methods randomly sample protein conformations and thus require large amounts of computational resource. Here, we consider a sequential sampling strategy, building on ideas from recent experimental work which shows that many proteins fold cotranslationally.

Results

We have investigated whether a pseudo-greedy search approach, which begins sequentially from one of the termini, can improve the performance and accuracy of de novo protein structure prediction. We observed that our sequential approach converges when fewer than 20 000 decoys have been produced, fewer than commonly expected. Using our software, SAINT2, we also compared the run time and quality of models produced in a sequential fashion against a standard, non-sequential approach. Sequential prediction produces an individual decoy 1.5-2.5 times faster than non-sequential prediction. When considering the quality of the best model, sequential prediction led to a better model being produced for 31 out of 41 soluble protein validation cases and for 18 out of 24 transmembrane protein cases. Correct models (TM-Score > 0.5) were produced for 29 of these cases by the sequential mode and for only 22 by the non-sequential mode. Our comparison reveals that a sequential search strategy can be used to drastically reduce computational time of de novo protein structure prediction and improve accuracy.

Availability and implementation

Data are available for download from: http://opig.stats.ox.ac.uk/resources. SAINT2 is available for download from: https://github.com/sauloho/SAINT2.

Contact

saulo.deoliveira@dtc.ox.ac.uk.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Coarse-Grained Modeling of the Interplay between Secondary Structure Propensities and Protein Fold Assembly

We recently developed a new coarse-grained model of protein structure and dynamics [ Dawid et al. J. Chem. Theory Comput. 2017 , 13 ( 11 ), 5766 - 5779 ]. The model assumed a single bead representation of amino acid residues, where positions of such united residues were defined by centers of mass of four amino acid fragments. Replica exchange Monte Carlo sampling of the model chains provided good pictures of modeled structures and their dynamics. In its generic form the statistical knowledge-based force field of the model has been dedicated for single-domain globular proteins. Sequence-specific interactions are defined by three-letter secondary structure data. In the present work we demonstrate that different assignments and/or predictions of secondary structures are usually sufficient for enforcing cooperative formation of native-like folds of SURPASS chains for the majority of single-domain globular proteins. Simulations of native-like structure assembly for a representative set of globular proteins have shown that the accuracy of secondary structure data is usually not crucial for model performance, although some specific errors can strongly distort the obtained three-dimensional structures.

Determining protein similarity by comparing hydrophobic core structure

Formal assessment of structural similarity is - next to protein structure prediction - arguably the most important unsolved problem in proteomics. In this paper we propose a similarity criterion based on commonalities between the proteins' hydrophobic cores. The hydrophobic core emerges as a result of conformational changes through which each residue reaches its intended position in the protein body. A quantitative criterion based on this phenomenon has been proposed in the framework of the CASP challenge. The structure of the hydrophobic core - including the placement and scope of any deviations from the idealized model - may indirectly point to areas of importance from the point of view of the protein's biological function. Our analysis focuses on an arbitrarily selected target from the CASP11 challenge. The proposed measure, while compliant with CASP criteria (70-80% correlation), involves certain adjustments which acknowledge the presence of factors other than simple spatial arrangement of solids.