Modelling Estimates of Norovirus Disease in Patients with Chronic Medical Conditions

Risk Factors for Acute Gastroenteritis Among Patients Hospitalized in 5 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers, 2016-2019

BACKGROUND

In the United States, ∼179 million acute gastroenteritis (AGE) episodes occur annually. We aimed to identify risk factors for all-cause AGE, norovirus-associated vs non-norovirus AGE, and severe vs mild/moderate AGE among hospitalized adults.

METHODS

We enrolled 1029 AGE cases and 624 non-AGE controls from December 1, 2016, to November 30, 2019, at 5 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. Patient interviews and medical chart abstractions were conducted, and participant stool samples were tested using the BioFire Gastrointestinal Panel. Severe AGE was defined as a modified Vesikari score of ≥11. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess associations between potential risk factors and outcomes; univariate analysis was conducted for norovirus-associated AGE due to limited sample size.

RESULTS

Among 1029 AGE cases, 551 (54%) had severe AGE and 44 (4%) were norovirus positive. Risk factors for all-cause AGE included immunosuppressive therapy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.6; 95% CI, 2.7-11.7), HIV infection (aOR, 3.9; 95% CI, 1.8-8.5), severe renal disease (aOR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.8-5.2), and household contact with a person with AGE (aOR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.3-6.7). Household (OR, 4.4; 95% CI, 1.6-12.0) and non-household contact (OR, 5.0; 95% CI, 2.2-11.5) with AGE was associated with norovirus-associated AGE. Norovirus positivity (aOR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.3-8.8) was significantly associated with severe AGE.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with immunosuppressive therapy, HIV, and severe renal disease should be monitored for AGE and may benefit from targeted public health messaging regarding AGE prevention. These results may also direct future public health interventions, such as norovirus vaccines, to specific high-risk populations.

Norovirus, astrovirus, and sapovirus among immunocompromised patients at a tertiary care research hospital

We estimated the prevalence of astrovirus, sapovirus, and norovirus among patients enrolled in research protocols and receiving medical care at the Clinical Center of the National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, a clinical research hospital with a large immunocompromised patient population. We identified patients whose fecal specimens were submitted to the Clinical Center for testing on the Biofire FilmArray Gastrointestinal Panel from September 15, 2015 through November 30, 2016. Among 442 patients with fecal specimens submitted for multiplex testing, 11% had norovirus identified, 2% had astrovirus, and 2% had sapovirus. Like norovirus, astrovirus was detected in multiple sequential samples from a single patient, consistent with chronic infection or the occurrence of multiple reinfections. Coinfection with non-viral gastrointestinal pathogens was detected in 31% of patients with positive results for norovirus, astrovirus, or sapovirus. Norovirus remains common in this immunocompromised patient population, and both sapovirus and astrovirus are present.

Norovirus transmission dynamics: a modelling review

Norovirus is one of the leading causes of viral gastroenteritis worldwide and responsible for substantial morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. To further understanding of the epidemiology and control of norovirus, there has been much recent interest in describing the transmission dynamics of norovirus through mathematical models. In this study, we review the current modelling approaches for norovirus transmission. We examine the data and methods used to estimate these models that vary structurally and parametrically between different epidemiological contexts. Many of the existing studies at population level have focused on the same case notification dataset, whereas models from outbreak settings are highly specific and difficult to generalise. In this review, we explore the consistency in the description of norovirus transmission dynamics and the robustness of parameter estimates between studies. In particular, we find that there is considerable variability in estimates of key parameters such as the basic reproduction number, which may mean that the effort required to control norovirus at the population level may currently be underestimated.