The Effect of Renal Function Impairment on the Mortality of Cirrhotic Patients: A Nationwide Population-Based 3-Year Follow-up Study

Establishment and evaluation of an early prediction model of hepatorenal syndrome in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

In China, hepatorenal syndrome is a serious complication in the decompensated stage of hepatitis B cirrhosis, which requires early clinical intervention, so the early diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome is crucial. This study establishes a new predictive model based on serum biomarkers for the early diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome.

METHODS

Patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis who met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were randomly assigned to the training dataset and validation dataset at a 7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to screen the risk factors for hepatorenal syndrome. The identified risk factors were used to establish and verify a model.

RESULTS

This study included 255 patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis, including 184 in the training group and 71 in the validation group. The multivariate logistic regression model was established in the training group and verified in the validation group. Logistic regression showed that hemoglobin (OR 0.938, 95% CI 0.908-0.969), total bilirubin (OR 1.014, 95% CI 1.008-1.021) and creatinine (OR 1.079, 95% CI 1.043-1.117) were independent risk factors for hepatorenal syndrome (P < 0.05). These were used to establish the model. In the training group and the validation group, the area under the ROC curve of the nomogram for the diagnosis of hepatorenal syndrome was 0.968 and 0.980, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The three serum biomarkers, including hemoglobin, total bilirubin and creatinine, can be used as independent early predictors of hepatorenal syndrome in patients with decompensated hepatitis B cirrhosis.

Adverse outcomes of proton pump inhibitors in chronic liver disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) are among the most commonly prescribed medications in the US, but their safety in cirrhosis has recently been questioned. We performed a meta-analysis of observational studies to evaluate the impact of PPIs on adverse clinical outcomes in the setting of chronic liver disease (CLD).

METHODS

We searched several databases from inception to 26 May 2019 to identify comparative studies evaluating the effect of PPIs in CLD. Outcomes of interest were the associations between PPIs use and the occurrence of hepatic encephalopathy, hepatocellular carcinoma, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, bacterial infections, and mortality in CLD. We performed a meta-analysis in accordance to the PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

Of 14,662 papers evaluated, 47 studies with 169,806 participants were identified. Of these, 35 were cohort studies and 12 were case-control studies. The pooled odds ratio (OR) for hepatic encephalopathy in individuals with PPI users, compared with those without, was 2.31 (95% CI 1.63-3.28). The pooled OR for spontaneous bacterial peritonitis in individuals with PPI users was significantly higher compared with non-PPI users (OR = 1.72, 95% CI 1.42-2.09). Results were also consistent with a higher risk of the bacterial infections and mortality in PPI users compared with non-PPI users. For hepatocellular carcinoma, the final conclusion cannot be drawn because of the limited number of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies a significant relationship between PPIs therapies and several specific adverse clinical outcomes in CLD. However, these results should be carefully considered given the potential selection bias and unmeasured confounding variables in observational studies, it may be reasonable to re-evaluate the need for PPIs in patients with CLD.

Population-based study of Entecavir and long-term mortality in chronic hepatitis B-related decompensated liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We lack population-based studies that identify the role of entecavir (ETV) in extending long-term survival in chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-related decompensated liver cirrhotic patients. Since 2010, National Health Insurance in Taiwan has covered long-term medical payment for antiviral therapy in CHB-related cirrhotic patients whose HBV DNA is ≥ 2000 IU/mL. We studied the effect of ETV on the mortality of CHB-related decompensated cirrhosis patients compared with patients who did not receive antiviral agents at baseline.

METHODS

From the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database, we collected 758 CHB-related decompensated cirrhosis patients with elevated viral loads (HBV DNA ≥ 2000  IU/mL) using ETV and discharged between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2013. The comparison group consisted of 1516 selected CHB-related decompensated cirrhotic patients without antiviral therapy at baseline using propensity score matching analysis.

RESULTS

The 1-, 2-, and 3-year mortality probabilities were 34.7%, 42.5%, and 48.5 % in the ETV group and 21.1%, 37.8% and 51.3 % in the non-ETV group, respectively. Based on a Cox proportional hazards regression model adjusted by patients' sex, age, and comorbid disorders, the hazard ratios (HR) in the ETV group for 1-year, 1-2-year, and 2-3-year mortalities were 1.22 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.43, P = .010), 1.02 (0.86-1.20, P = .866), and 0.59 (0.38-0.90, P = .016), compared with the non-ETV group.

CONCLUSIONS

Even in CHB-related decompensated cirrhotic patients, higher initial viral loads were correlated with poor outcomes. However, the long-term usage of ETV can decrease long-term mortality in these patients.

Statin use in cirrhotic patients with infectious diseases: A population-based study

Background

Recent studies have shown benefits of statins in patients with liver cirrhosis. However, it is still unknown if statins have a beneficial effect on the mortality of cirrhotic patients with bacterial infections.

Methods

The Taiwan National Health Insurance Database was searched, and 816 cirrhotic patients receiving statins with bacterial infections hospitalized between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013 were included in the study. A one-to-four propensity score matching was performed to select a comparison group based on age, sex, and comorbid disorders.

Results

The overall 30-day mortalities in statin and non-statin group were 5.3% and 9.8%, respectively (P = 0.001). After Cox regression modeling adjusting for age, sex, and comorbid disorders, the hazard ratio (HR) of statin use on 30-day mortality was 0.52 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.38–0.72, P<0.001). In subgroup analysis, the 30-day mortality effect of statin use was more pronounced in patients with pneumonia (HR = 0.34; 95% CI: 0.19–0.59; P<0.001) and bacteremia (HR = 0.55; 95% CI: 0.35–0.85; P = 0.008). Atovastatin (HR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.37–0.93) and rosuvastatin (HR = 0.59; 95% CI: 0.36–0.98) were associated with a decreased 30-day mortality risk compared to patients not taking statins.

Conclusions

Statin use decreases the 30-day mortality of cirrhotic patients with bacteremia and pneumonia.

Value of cystatin C, β2 macroglobulin, serum creatinine, and blood urea nitrogen in predicting hepatorenal syndrome in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure

AIM

To assess the predictive value of cystatin C (Cys-C), β2 macroglobulin (β2-MG), serum creatinine (Scr), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) for hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) .

METHODS

Thirty-six ACLF patients with HRS (HRS group) treated at our hospital from February 2014 to December 2017 were analyzed retrospectively. Thirty-six patients with ACLF without HRS were selected as an ACLF group, and 50 patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) were selected as a CLD group. Cys-C, β2-MG, Scr, and BUN were compared between the three groups. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of Cys-C, β2-MG, Scr, and BUN, alone or in combination, in predicting HRS in patients with ACLF.

RESULTS

The levels of Cys-C, β2-MG, Scr, and BUN in the three groups were statistically different (F = 47.330, 23.693, 41.220, 26.715; P = 0.000 for all). Compared with the CLD and ACLF groups, Cys-C (t = 9.386, 4.807, P = 0.000 for both), β2-MG (t = 30.265, 4.116; P = 0.000 for both), Scr (t = 7.457, 7.415; P = 0.000 for both), and BUN (t = 6.608, 5.014; P = 0.000 for both) were significantly increased in the HRS group. ROC curve analysis showed that Scr had the highest AUC (0.799), followed by Cys-C (AUC = 0.789), β2-MG (AUC = 0.741), and BUN (AUC = 0.910). The combination of Cys-C, β2-MG, and Scr (AUC = 0.910) performed significantly better than any of the four indexes alone. Using the best cutoff point of the ROC curve as the predictive index, the diagnostic accuracy rate of the combination of Cys-C, β2-MG, and Scr for HRS was 80.33% (sensitivity, 91.67%; specificity, 75.58%; positive predictive value, 61.11%; negative predictive value, 95.59%). The sensitivity of combined indexes was significantly higher than any of the four indexes alone (χ² = 10, 8.692, 7.432, 3.956; P = 0.002, 0.003, 0.006, 0.047).

CONCLUSION

The levels of Cys-C, β2-MG, Scr, and BUN in ACLF patients with HRS significantly increase. The combination of Cys-C, β2-MG, and Scr has higher accuracy for predicting HRS in ACLF patients.

Association between complicated liver cirrhosis and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in Taiwan

Hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, and variceal bleeding are the three major complications of cirrhosis. It is well known that cirrhosis is the most important risk factor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, little is known about whether the severity of liver cirrhosis has an effect on the incidence of HCC. This population-based cohort study aimed to explore the association between complicated cirrhosis and HCC, and identify the risk factors of HCC in patients with complicated cirrhosis. Data of the years 1997–2011 were extracted from the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan. A total of 2568 patients with complicated cirrhosis without HCC at baseline were enrolled. After propensity score matching, another 2568 patients with non-complicated cirrhosis were included. Hazards Cox regression analysis by using a competing risk regression model to control for possible confounding factors was utilized to estimate the association of the complications of liver cirrhosis with the risk of HCC. We observed by using competing risk analysis that the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for developing HCC during the follow-up period after the initial hospitalization was higher among the patients with baseline complicated cirrhosis than in those with uncomplicated cirrhosis (HR, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, CI, 1.10–1.37, p<0.001). Additionally, older patients (HR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01–1.02, p<0.001), males (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74–0.96, p = 0.009), and patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis (HR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.65–2.26, p<0.001) had a statistically significant difference in the incidence of HCC. In conclusion, complicated liver cirrhosis is associated with a higher risk of HCC in Taiwan compared with cirrhosis without complications.