Modeled Impacts of Chronic Wasting Disease on White-Tailed Deer in a Semi-Arid Environment

Demographic Risk Factors Vary in the Invasion Front of Chronic Wasting Disease in West Virginia, USA

After detecting chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Hampshire County, West Virginia, USA, in 2005, we investigated the change of CWD apparent prevalence and potential factors influencing infection risk during the invasion front. Over eight sampling years (2006-2012 and 2017) during a 12-yr period within a 101-km2-area monitoring zone, we sampled and tested a total of 853 deer for CWD by ELISA and immunohistochemistry. Bayesian logistic regression of risk factors included collection year, age class, sex, and adjusted body weight (weight after accounting for sex, age, kidney fat index, and number of fetuses). In the whole-herd model (n=634), collection year, age, and adjusted body weight were associated with increased odds of CWD, whereas an age-weight interaction had a negative relationship. We found that males drove the positive associations with age and adjusted body weight, whereas females were responsible for the negative interaction effect. These findings suggest potential behavioral and physiological mechanisms related to sex that may influence CWD exposure. Older males exhibited higher CWD prevalence, aligning with previous studies. Notably, the novel finding of adjusted body weight as a risk factor in males warrants further investigation, and this study highlights the need for future research on social behavior and its role in CWD transmission within white-tailed deer populations.

Where we stand on chronic wasting disease: A systematic literature review of its prevalence patterns, impacts, and management interventions

With high fatality and no cure, chronic wasting disease (CWD) has infected cervids in multiple regions, including the United States, Canada, Europe, and South Korea. Despite the rapid growth of literature on CWD, the full scope of its ecological, social, and economic impacts and the most effective and socially acceptable management strategies to mitigate the disease is unclear. Of 3008 initially identified published peer-reviewed papers, 134 were included in a final systematic literature review to synthesize the current knowledge on CWD transmission patterns, impacts, and the effectiveness of management interventions. The number of publications on CWD has increased steadily since 2000 with an average of six papers per year. Most papers were related to CWD prevalence (39 %), human behavior (33 %), CWD impacts (31 %), and management interventions (16 %). Environmental factors such as soil, water, and plants were identified as the most common transmission medium, with a higher prevalence rate among adult male cervids than females. Hunters showed a higher risk perception and were more likely to change hunting behavior due to CWD detection than non-hunters. Ecological impacts included the decreased survival rate accompanied by lower population growth, eventually leading to the decline of cervid populations. Culling was found to be an effective and widely implemented management strategy across countries, although it often was associated with public resistance. Despite potentially high negative economic impacts anticipated due to CWD, studies on this subject were limited. Sustained surveillance, ongoing research, and engagement of affected stakeholders will be essential for future disease control and management.

Chronic wasting disease alters the movement behavior and habitat use of mule deer during clinical stages of infection

Integrating host movement and pathogen data is a central issue in wildlife disease ecology that will allow for a better understanding of disease transmission. We examined how adult female mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) responded behaviorally to infection with chronic wasting disease (CWD). We compared movement and habitat use of CWD-infected deer (n = 18) to those that succumbed to starvation (and were CWD-negative by ELISA and IHC; n = 8) and others in which CWD was not detected (n = 111, including animals that survived the duration of the study) using GPS collar data from two distinct populations collared in central Wyoming, USA during 2018-2022. CWD and predation were the leading causes of mortality during our study (32/91 deaths attributed to CWD and 27/91 deaths attributed to predation). Deer infected with CWD moved slower and used lower elevation areas closer to rivers in the months preceding death compared with uninfected deer that did not succumb to starvation. Although CWD-infected deer and those that died of starvation moved at similar speeds during the final months of life, CWD-infected deer used areas closer to streams with less herbaceous biomass than starved deer. These behavioral differences may allow for the development of predictive models of disease status from movement data, which will be useful to supplement field and laboratory diagnostics or when mortalities cannot be quickly retrieved to assess cause-specific mortality. Furthermore, identifying individuals who are sick before predation events could help to assess the extent to which disease mortality is compensatory with predation. Finally, infected animals began to slow down around 4 months prior to death from CWD. Our approach for detecting the timing of infection-induced shifts in movement behavior may be useful in application to other disease systems to better understand the response of wildlife to infectious disease.

Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Cervid Chronic Wasting Disease in Semi-Arid South Texas

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a spongiform encephalopathy disease caused by the transmission of infectious prion agents. CWD is a fatal disease that affects wild and farmed cervids in North America with few cases reported overseas. Social interaction of cervids, feeding practices by wildlife keepers and climate effects on the environmental carrying capacity all can affect CWD transmission in deer. Wildlife deer game hunting is economically important to the semi-arid South Texas region and is affected by climate change. In this paper, we model and investigate the effect of climate change on the spread of CWD using typical climate scenarios. We use a system of impulsive differential equations to depict the transmission of CWD between different age groups and gender of cervids. The carrying capacity and contact rates are assumed to depend on climate. Due to the polygamy of bucks, we use mating rates that depend on the number of bucks and does. We analyze the stability of the model and use simulations to study the effect of harvesting (culling) on eradicating the disease, given the climate of South Texas. We use typical climate change scenarios based on published data and our assumptions. For the climate indicator, we calculated and utilized the Standard Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). We found that climate change might hinder the efforts to reduce and effectively manage CWD as it becomes endemic to South Texas. The model shows the extinction of the deer population from this region is a likely outcome.

Accuracies and biases of ageing white-tailed deer in semiarid environments

Abstract Context The ability to accurately estimate age of animals is important for both research and management. The two methods for age estimation in ungulates are tooth replacement and wear (TRW) and cementum annuli (CA). Errors in estimated TRW ages are commonly attributed to environmental conditions; however, the influence of environmental variables on tooth wear has not been quantified. Further, the performance of CA in environments with weak seasonality has not been thoroughly evaluated. Aims The study had the following three goals: identify environmental and morphological factors that influenced estimated ages, quantify accuracy of TRW and CA, and develop TRW ageing criteria that minimise error. Methods We used data from harvested (n = 5117) and free-ranging, known-age white-tailed deer (n = 134) collected in southern Texas, USA, to quantify environmental and morphological influences on estimated TRW ages, and assess biases in both methods. Key results We observed substantial variation in age estimates for both TRW and CA. Soil, drought and supplemental nutrition had minor effects on tooth wear, insufficient to alter age estimates by ≥1 year. Body mass and antler size influenced age estimates for TRW only for extreme outliers. Both methods were biased and tended to under-estimate ages of adult deer, especially TRW. Wear on the first molar was most correlated with the known age (r2 = 0.78) and allowed biologists to correctly place known-age deer into age classes of 2, 3–5, and ≥6 years old 72%, 73% and 68% of the time, an improvement compared with the 79%, 48% and 28% accuracy from pooled TRW. Conclusions We observed substantial inter- and intra-individual variation in tooth-wear patterns that became more pronounced in older deer. Individual variation had a greater influence on TRW ages than did environmental covariates, whereas CA ages appeared unaffected by environment. Although variable, age estimates were ±1 year of the true age 87% and 93% of the time for TRW and CA respectively. Implications Managers, ecologists and epidemiologists often incorporate ages into population models. The high inter-individual variation in estimated ages, the tendency to underestimate ages of older deer, and the ageing method need to be considered.

Reproductive effort and success of males in scramble-competition polygyny: Evidence for trade-offs between foraging and mate search

Patterns of male reproductive allocation provide insight into life-history characteristics. The trade-offs associated with resource and female group defence are well-defined. However, less is understood about trade-offs in species that practise scramble-competition polygyny, where successful strategies may favour competitive mate-searching rather than contest competition and fighting. White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) practise scramble-competition polygyny where solitary males search for and assess receptivity of females scattered across the landscape. Physically mature males are expected to do most of the breeding because of the high energetic costs of reproduction and high social status. However, young males may collectively sire one-third of offspring. To gain a better understanding of trade-offs associated with scramble-competition polygyny, we quantified metrics associated with reproductive effort and success. We quantified changes in body mass of harvested males, energetic costs of locomotion based on movements of GPS radiocollared males and timing of reproduction via temporal genetic parentage assignments. Young males (1.5 and 2.5 years old) sired offspring, but their mating success was mainly limited to peak rut, when most females were in oestrus. Furthermore, multiple paternity was common, indicating opportunistic reproduction. Reproductive effort, indexed by body mass loss, was highest in prime-age males (5.5-6.5 years old). Surprisingly, young and postprime males also exhibited significant body mass loss, indicative of investment in reproductive effort. Movement rates increased twofold to fourfold during rut as a function of mate search activities, but cost of locomotion would cause only about one-third of observed body mass loss. Because males are capital breeders, we infer most of body mass loss is due to reduced foraging. In scramble-competition polygyny, the repeated location of potential mates and assessment of their oestrous status appear to be important constituents of male mating strategies. Therefore, mating success may be influenced by time management and spatial memory, and not based solely on social dominance. Thus, reproductive effort should be greater for individuals capable of reducing time foraging. For those that cannot, opportunistic mating opportunities may arise when operative adult sex ratios are low. Our analyses reveal valuable insight into the trade-offs associated with scramble-competition polygyny.

Deterministic and stochastic analysis of an eco-epidemiological model

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious prion disease among the deer family that has the potential to disrupt the ecosystems where deer occur in abundance. To understand the dynamics of this emerging infectious disease, we consider a simple eco-epidemic model where the host population is infected by CWD. Boundedness of the system is established. The structure of equilibria and their linearized stability are investigated. The persistence condition is discussed. By constructing a suitable Lyapunov function, we discuss the global stability of the endemic equilibrium. Local bifurcation (transcritical) around the boundary equilibria is developed. Sufficient conditions for the existence of Hopf-bifurcation are derived. Further, we have also introduced white type of noise into the system to investigate stochastic stability. This suggests that the deterministic model is robust with respect to stochastic perturbation. Some numerical simulations are performed to validate our results.

Chronic wasting disease management in ranched elk using rectal biopsy testing

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) affecting members of the cervid species, and is one of the few TSEs with an expanding geographic range. Diagnostic limitations, efficient transmission, and the movement of infected animals are important contributing factors in the ongoing spread of disease. Managing CWD in affected populations has proven difficult, relying on population reduction in the case of wild deer and elk, or quarantine and depopulation in farmed cervids. In the present study, we evaluated the effectiveness of managing endemic CWD in a closed elk herd using antemortem sampling combined with both conventional and experimental diagnostic testing, and selective, targeted culling of infected animals. We hypothesized that the real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC) assay, a developing amplification assay, would offer greater detection capabilities over immunohistochemistry (IHC) in the identification of infected animals using recto-anal mucosa associated lymphoid tissue (RAMALT). We further sought to develop a better understanding of CWD epidemiology in elk with various PRNP alleles, and predicted that CWD prevalence would decrease with targeted culling. We found that RT-QuIC identified significantly more CWD-positive animals than IHC using RAMALT tissues (121 vs. 86, respectively, out of 553 unique animals), and that longstanding disease presence was associated with an increasing frequency of less susceptible PRNP alleles. Prevalence of CWD increased significantly over the first two years of the study, implying that refinements in our management strategy are necessary to reduce the prevalence of CWD in this herd.