Climate and Human Pressure Constraints Co-Explain Regional Plant Invasion at Different Spatial Scales

Spatiotemporal patterns of non-native terrestrial gastropods in the contiguous United States

The contiguous United States (CONUS) harbor a significant non-native species diversity. However, spatiotemporal trends of some groups such as terrestrial gastropods (i.e., land snails and slugs) have not been comprehensively considered, and therefore management has been hindered. Here, our aims were to 1.) compile a dataset of all non-native terrestrial gastropod species with CONUS occurrence records, 2.) assess overarching spatiotemporal patterns associated with these records, 3.) describe the continental origin of each species, and 4.) compare climatic associations of each species in their indigenous and introduced CONUS ranges. We compiled a georeferenced dataset of 10,097 records for 22 families, 48 genera, and 69 species, with > 70% of records sourced from the citizen science database iNaturalist. The species Cornu aspersum Müller, 1774 was most prevalent with 3,672 records. The majority (> 92%) of records exhibit an indigenous Western European and Mediterranean distribution, with overlap in broad-scale climatic associations between indigenous and CONUS ranges. Records are most dense in urban metropolitan areas, with the highest proportion of records and species richness in the state of California. We show increased prevalence of non-native species through time, largely associated with urbanized areas with high human population density. Moreover, we show strong evidence for a role for analogous climates in dictating geographic fate and pervasiveness between indigenous and CONUS ranges for non-native species.

Meta-modeling on detailed geography for accurate prediction of invasive alien species dispersal

Invasive species are recognized as a significant threat to biodiversity. The mathematical modeling of their spatio-temporal dynamics can provide significant help to environmental managers in devising suitable control strategies. Several mathematical approaches have been proposed in recent decades to efficiently model the dispersal of invasive species. Relying on the assumption that the dispersal of an individual is random, but the density of individuals at the scale of the population can be considered smooth, reaction-diffusion models are a good trade-off between model complexity and flexibility for use in different situations. In this paper we present a continuous reaction-diffusion model coupled with arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC) to assess the impact of uncertainties in the model parameters. We show how the finite elements framework is well-suited to handle important landscape heterogeneities as elevation and the complex geometries associated with the boundaries of an actual geographical region. We demonstrate the main capabilities of the proposed coupled model by assessing the uncertainties in the invasion of an alien species invading the Basque Country region in Northern Spain.