When Winners Become Losers: Predicted Nonlinear Responses of Arctic Birds to Increasing Woody Vegetation

Land cover and NDVI are important predictors in habitat selection along migration for the Golden-crowned Sparrow, a temperate-zone migrating songbird

BACKGROUND

Migrating passerines in North America have shown sharp declines. Understanding habitat selection and threats along migration paths are critical research needs, but details about migrations have been limited due to the difficulty of tracking small birds. Recent technological advances of tiny GPS-tags provide new opportunities to delineate fine-scale movements in small passerines during a life stage that has previously been inherently difficult to study.

METHODS

We investigated habitat selection along migration routes for a temperate-zone migratory passerine, the Golden-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichia atricapilla), given GPS tags on California wintering grounds. We used a resource selection function combined with conditional logistic regression to compare matched sets of known stopover locations and available but unused locations to determine how land cover class, vegetation greenness and climate variables influence habitat selection during migration. We also provide general migration descriptions for this understudied species including migration distance, duration, and elevation, and repeated use of stopover areas.

RESULTS

We acquired 22 tracks across 19 individuals, with a total of 541 valid spring and fall migration locations. Birds traveled to breeding grounds in Alaska and British Columbia along coastal routes, selecting for shrubland and higher vegetation greenness in both migration seasons as well as grasslands during fall migration. However, model interactions showed they selected sites with lower levels of greenness when in forest (both seasons) and shrubland (fall only), which may reflect their preference for more open habitats or represent a trade-off in selection between habitat type and productivity. Birds also selected for locations with higher daily maximum temperature during spring migration. Routes during spring migration were lower in elevation on average, shorter in duration, and had fewer long stopovers than in fall migration. For two birds, we found repeated use of the same stopover areas in spring and fall migration.

CONCLUSIONS

Using miniaturized GPS, this study provides new insight into habitat selection along migration routes for a common temperate-zone migrating songbird, contributing to a better understanding of full annual cycle models, and informing conservation efforts. Golden-crowned Sparrows selected for specific habitats along migration routes, and we found previously unknown behaviors such as repeated use of the same stopover areas by individuals across different migratory seasons.

The first documentation of the Nearctic-Paleotropical migratory route of the Arctic Warbler

The Arctic Warbler (Phylloscopus borealis) is a cryptically plumed songbird with an uncommon Nearctic-Paleotropical migratory strategy. Using light-level geolocators, we provide the first documentation of the migratory routes and wintering locations of two territorial adult male Arctic Warblers from Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. After accounting for position estimation uncertainties and biases, we found that both individuals departed their breeding grounds in early September, stopped over in southeastern Russia and China during autumn migration, then wintered in the Philippines and the island of Palau. Our documentation of Arctic Warbler wintering on Palau suggests that additional study is needed to document their wintering range. Our study provides hitherto unknown information on stopover and wintering locations for Arctic Warblers and indicates that this species may migrate further overwater than previously thought.

Temperature and precipitation at migratory grounds influence demographic trends of an Arctic-breeding bird

Anthropogenic climate disruption, including temperature and precipitation regime shifts, has been linked to animal population declines since the mid-20th century. However, some species, such as Arctic-breeding geese, have thrived during this period. An increased understanding of how climate disruption might link to demographic rates in thriving species is an important perspective in quantifying the impact of anthropogenic climate disruption on the global state of nature. The Greenland barnacle goose (Branta leucopsis) population has increased tenfold in abundance since the mid-20th century. A concurrent weather regime shift towards warmer, wetter conditions occurred throughout its range in Greenland (breeding), Ireland and Scotland (wintering) and Iceland (spring and autumn staging). The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between weather and demographic rates of Greenland barnacle geese to discern the role of climate shifts in the population trend. We quantified the relationship between temperature and precipitation and Greenland barnacle goose survival and productivity over a 50 year period from 1968 to 2018. We detected significant positive relationships between warmer, wetter conditions on the Icelandic spring staging grounds and survival. We also detected contrasting relationships between warmer, wetter conditions during autumn staging and survival and productivity, with warm, dry conditions being the most favourable for productivity. Survival increased in the latter part of the study period, supporting the possibility that spring weather regime shifts contributed to the increasing population trend. This may be related to improved forage resources, as warming air temperatures have been shown to improve survival rates in several other Arctic and northern terrestrial herbivorous species through indirect bottom-up effects on forage availability.

The recent expansion of Fox Sparrow (Passerella iliaca iliaca) breeding range into the northeastern United States

The breeding range of the Eastern Fox Sparrow (Passerella iliaca iliaca) is generally recognized as comprising the boreal forest of Canada. However, recent observations suggest that the species is present during the summer months throughout much of the northeastern US, unexpected for a species characterized as a passage migrant in the region. To clarify, I conducted a literature review to document the historical status of the species in the northeastern US and then analyzed observations submitted to eBird to describe its recent and current status in the region. Historical accounts consistently identify Fox Sparrow as a passage migrant through the region during early spring and late fall. Beginning in the early 1980s, observers began noting regular extralimital records of Fox Sparrow in northern Maine. A single nest was discovered in the state in 1983, and another in northern New Hampshire in 1997. Despite the paucity of breeding records, observations submitted to eBird suggest that the southern limit of the breeding range of Fox Sparrow has expanded rapidly to the south and west in recent years. The proportion of complete checklists submitted to eBird that contained at least one observation of Fox Sparrow grew at an annual rate of 18% from 2003–2016 and was independent of observer effort. Fox Sparrow now occurs regularly on mountaintops and in young stands of spruce (Picea spp.) and balsam fir (Abies balsamea) during the breeding season throughout northern and western Maine and northern New Hampshire, with occasional records from the Green Mountains of Vermont and the Adirondack Mountains of New York. The cause of this rapid expansion of its breeding range is unknown, but may be related to an increase in the amount of young conifer forest in the northeastern US created by commercial timber harvest.

Montane-breeding Bird Distribution and Abundance Across National Parks of Southwestern Alaska

Between 2004 and 2008, biologists conducted an inventory of breeding birds during May–June primarily in montane areas (>100 m above sea level) of Aniakchak National Monument and Preserve (Aniakchak NMP), Katmai National Park and Preserve (Katmai NPP), and Lake Clark National Park and Preserve (Lake Clark NPP) in southwestern Alaska. Observers conducted 1,021 point counts along 169 transects within 63 10-km × 10-km plots that were randomly selected and stratified by ecological subsection. We created hierarchical N-mixture models to estimate detection probability and abundance for 15 species, including 12 passerines, 2 galliforms, and 1 shorebird. We first modeled detection probability relative to observer, date within season, and proportion of dense vegetation cover around the point, then modeled abundance as a function of land cover composition (proportion of seven coarse-scale land cover types) within 300 m of the survey point. Land cover relationships varied widely among species but most showed selection for low to tall shrubs (0.2–5 m tall) and an avoidance of alpine and dwarf shrub–herbaceous cover types. After adjusting for species not observed, we estimated a minimum of 107 ± 9 species bred in the areas surveyed within the three parks combined. Species richness was negatively associated with elevation and associated land cover types. At comparable levels of survey effort (n = 721 birds detected), species richness was greatest in Lake Clark NPP (75 ± 12 species), lowest in Aniakchak NMP (45 ± 6 species), and intermediate at Katmai NPP (59 ± 10 species). Species richness was similar at equivalent survey effort (n = 973 birds detected) within the Lime Hills, Alaska Range, and Alaska Peninsula ecoregions (68 ± 8; 79 ± 11; 67 ± 11, respectively). Species composition was similar across all three parks and across the three major ecoregions (Alaska Range, Alaska Peninsula, Lime Hills) that encompass them. Our results provide baseline estimates of relative abundance and models of abundance and species richness relative to land cover that can be used to assess future changes in avian distribution. Additionally, these subarctic montane parks may serve as signals of landscape change and barometers for the assessment of population and distributional changes as a result of warming temperatures and changing precipitation patterns.

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios

Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key "early warning signs" about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37-year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate-driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age-structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70-year time window (2015-2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., "thermoneutral") summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%-86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate-linked bottom-up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence.