Utility Evaluation Based on One-To-N Mapping in the Prisoner's Dilemma Game for Interdependent Networks

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of multigames with mutations

Most environments favor defection over cooperation due to natural selection. Nonetheless, the emergence of cooperation is omnipresent in many biological, social, and economic systems, quite contrary to the well-celebrated Darwinian theory of evolution. Much research has been devoted to better understanding how and why cooperation persists among self-interested individuals despite their competition for limited resources. Here we go beyond a single social dilemma since individuals usually encounter various social challenges. In particular, we propose and study a mathematical model incorporating both the prisoner’s dilemma and the snowdrift game. We further extend this model by considering ecological signatures like mutation and selfless one-sided contribution of altruist free space. The nonlinear evolutionary dynamics that results from these upgrades offer a broader range of equilibrium outcomes, and it also often favors cooperation over defection. With the help of analytical and numerical calculations, our theoretical model sheds light on the mechanisms that maintain biodiversity, and it helps to explain the evolution of social order in human societies.

A dynamic discount pricing strategy for viral marketing

Viral marketing has been one of the main marketing modes. However, theoretical study of viral marketing is still lacking. This paper focuses on the problem of developing a cost-effective dynamic discount pricing strategy for a viral marketing campaign. First, based on a novel word-of-mouth propagation model, we model the original problem as an optimal control problem. Second, we show that the optimal control problem admits an optimal control and present the optimality system for solving the optimal control problem. Next, we solve some optimal control models to get their respective optimal dynamic discount pricing strategies. Finally, we examine the effect of some factors on the maximum marketing profit. These results contribute to gaining insight into viral marketing.

Safety assessment of petrochemical enterprise using the cloud model, PHA-LOPA and the bow-tie model

Safe production is the foundation of the normal operations of petrochemical enterprises, and it helps maintain social stability. The main purpose of this study is to prevent petrochemical enterprise accidents by proposing a composite safety assessment approach based on the cloud model, preliminary hazard analysis-layer of protection analysis (PHA-LOPA) and the bow-tie model. First, the petrochemical enterprise and its relevant indicators were evaluated based on the cloud model. Second, the quantitative effect of the uncertainty transformation on the evaluation result of the cloud model was further analysed. This mainly includes the error analysis of the numerical characteristics under the conditions of few samples and small values. Third, the critical indicators such as shock and noise can be weakened and prevented by corresponding safety measures based on PHA-LOPA and the bow-tie model. After adopting two independent protection layers, the risk levels of shock and noise decrease from 3 to 2. Then, shock and noise were analysed in depth with the bow-tie model, and the causes and consequences were identified. Moreover, corresponding safety measures were taken to prevent accidents. The case study validated the validity and feasibility of the composite safety assessment approach proposed here.

Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing ‘goal’ and ‘time’ factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

The Lazarillo's game: Sharing resources with asymmetric conditions

The Lazarillo of Tormes' picaresque novel introduces a story where two subjects sequentially extract (one, two or three) tokens from a common pool in an asymmetric information framework (the first player cannot observe her partners' actions). By introducing a reward for both subjects in case that in every period at least one subject had taken one single token, we define an interesting coordination game. We conduct an experiment with 120 undergraduate students to study their behavior in this framework. We find that if the second player is allowed to take more tokens than her partner, then the frequency of cooperators does not seem to be affected by the informational asymmetry. Nevertheless, this asymmetry (i) incentives the second player to use her 'power of extraction' while the social externality is still available, (ii) yields to more asymmetric profit distributions when subjects win the social externality and (iii) delays the breach period in case of coordination failure. Furthermore, the first choice of the first player is determinant for getting the reward.

The detection of faked identity using unexpected questions and mouse dynamics

The detection of faked identities is a major problem in security. Current memory-detection techniques cannot be used as they require prior knowledge of the respondent’s true identity. Here, we report a novel technique for detecting faked identities based on the use of unexpected questions that may be used to check the respondent identity without any prior autobiographical information. While truth-tellers respond automatically to unexpected questions, liars have to “build” and verify their responses. This lack of automaticity is reflected in the mouse movements used to record the responses as well as in the number of errors. Responses to unexpected questions are compared to responses to expected and control questions (i.e., questions to which a liar also must respond truthfully). Parameters that encode mouse movement were analyzed using machine learning classifiers and the results indicate that the mouse trajectories and errors on unexpected questions efficiently distinguish liars from truth-tellers. Furthermore, we showed that liars may be identified also when they are responding truthfully. Unexpected questions combined with the analysis of mouse movement may efficiently spot participants with faked identities without the need for any prior information on the examinee.

The socialization effect on decision making in the Prisoner's Dilemma game: An eye-tracking study

We used a mobile eye-tracking system (in the form of glasses) to study the characteristics of visual perception in decision making in the Prisoner's Dilemma game. In each experiment, one of the 12 participants was equipped with eye-tracking glasses. The experiment was conducted in three stages: an anonymous Individual Game stage against a randomly chosen partner (one of the 12 other participants of the experiment); a Socialization stage, in which the participants were divided into two groups; and a Group Game stage, in which the participants played with partners in the groups. After each round, the respondent received information about his or her personal score in the last round and the overall winner of the game at the moment. The study proves that eye-tracking systems can be used for studying the process of decision making and forecasting. The total viewing time and the time of fixation on areas corresponding to noncooperative decisions is related to the participants’ overall level of cooperation. The increase in the total viewing time and the time of fixation on the areas of noncooperative choice is due to a preference for noncooperative decisions and a decrease in the overall level of cooperation. The number of fixations on the group attributes is associated with group identity, but does not necessarily lead to cooperative behavior.