Improving Physical Task Performance with Counterfactual and Prefactual Thinking

Mediating Role of Impulsivity in the Contributory Roles of Upward Versus Downward Counterfactual Thinking in Youth Gambling Intention

The proliferation of gambling shops, and the growing gambling prevalence in Nigeria, youths have constantly engaged in gambling activities even during school period. This has raised concerns among therapists and parents as the trend could degenerate to problem gambling and its associated psychosocial problems if left unchecked. Our study examined the role of impulsivity as a mediator in the association between two types of counterfactual thinking (CFT) and gambling intention in a non-clinical sample. A self-report measure containing South Oaks Gambling Screen: Reversed for Adolescents (SOGS: RA), CFT, and impulsivity scales was completed by 371 Nigerian adolescents who had gambled for money (mean age = 17.37 years; SD = 4.13). After controlling for age, increase in downward CFT was associated with decreased gambling intention, whereas increase in upward CFT and impulsivity were associated with increased gambling intention. Upward CFT contributed more to gambling intention than downward CFT. Mediation result showed that Impulsivity significantly mediated only the association between upward CFT and gambling intention. We concluded that gambling therapies should include treatment packages that enhance impulse control abilities and gambling-related downward CFT and at the same time, attenuate gambling-related upward CFT.

“If it weren’t for COVID-19…”: Counterfactual arguments influence support for climate change policies via cross-domain moral licensing or moral consistency effects

In two studies, we investigated whether counterfactual messages (i.e., “If… then…”) on the economic costs of past public policies influence support for future climate change policies. In Study 1, we tested whether the effect of upward counterfactual messages depended on their referring (or not) to the COVID-19 pandemic. Results showed lower support for a future climate change policy when the past expenses evoked by the upward counterfactual messages were attributed to COVID-19. In Study 2, we combined upward counterfactuals with downward counterfactuals presenting past economic efforts to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic as a moral credit. Results showed that exposure to downward counterfactuals decreased support for climate change policies among participants with low endorsement of anti-COVID-19 measures, whereas it increased support among participants with high endorsement. Discussion focuses on the conditions under which counterfactual communication may activate cross-dimensional moral licensing or moral consistency effects, influencing support for climate change policies.

The Bidirectional Relation Between Counterfactual Thinking and Closeness, Controllability, and Exceptionality

In four experiments, we explored the inferences people make when they learn that counterfactual thinking has occurred. Experiment 1 (N = 40) showed that knowing that a protagonist had engaged in counterfactual thinking (compared to no counterfactual thinking) resulted in participants inferring that the past event was closer in time to the protagonist, but there was no difference in inferring how close the past event was between knowing that a protagonist made many or a single counterfactual statement(s). Experiment 2 (N = 80) confirmed that participants were not affected by the number of counterfactual statements they read when inferring temporal closeness. Experiment 3 (N = 49) demonstrated that participants who learned that a protagonist had engaged in counterfactual thinking were more likely to infer that the protagonist experienced the controllable event. Experiment 4 (N = 120) indicated that participants who learned that a protagonist had engaged in counterfactual thinking were more likely to infer that the protagonist experienced the exceptional event. We concluded that the existence (but not the number) of counterfactual thoughts can lead people to infer that events were close, exceptional, and controllable, which suggests that the relations between closeness/controllability/exceptionality and counterfactual thinking are bidirectional. These results showed that as well as making inferences based on facts about the real world, people also make inferences about the real world based on hypothetical worlds.

Mental Simulation to Promote Exercise Intentions and Behaviors

Mental simulation, which employs specific patterns of imagery, can increase the intention to exercise as well as actual engagement in exercise. The present studies explored the effects of mental simulation on the intention to engage in exercise while regulating emotions. The first study confirmed that mental simulation did promote intentions of participants. The second found that video-primed mental simulation was a more effective method of exercise intention promotion than semantic-primed and image-primed mental simulation. In the third study, it was found that combining process-based and outcome-based mental simulations increased exercise intentions. Positive emotions mediated imagery ability and intention to exercise. The final study found that the mental simulation interventions most effective for exercise adherence were those that balanced the valence of process and outcome components in such a way that a challenging process results in a positive outcome, or a smooth process results in a negative outcome. Each of these results has practical implications for exercise interventions that will be discussed.

A Review of Functions of Speculative Thinking

Speculative thinking refers to thinking about past or future possibilities; it includes counterfactual thinking, prefactual thinking, and other types. In this narrative review, we discuss the traditional function of speculative thinking in improving future performance (i.e., the preparatory function). We also explore several non-preparatory functions of speculative thinking that have not been widely covered, namely the functions of conveying information and of supporting lying. In addition, we address temporal asymmetry; one perspective focuses on psychological distance in speculative thinking about the past and future, while another focuses on temporal asymmetry and reality/hypothetical differences in the preparatory function of speculative thinking. Overall, this review suggests that a broader functional theory is needed to address non-preparatory functions and the traditional preparatory function. Such a theory should cover all speculative thinking about the past and future rather than simply counterfactual thinking.

Happiness and counterfactual thinking at the 2016 Summer Olympic Games

The purpose of this study was to investigate potential differences in emotional expression and counterfactual thought between bronze and silver Olympic medallists. In Study 1, 468 photographs (156 gold medallists, 156 silver medallists, 156 bronze medallists) were obtained of Olympic medal winners standing on the podium at the 2016 Summer Olympic Games, and 20 students rated the level of expressed happiness in each photograph. The students were blind to the outcome of the event and an average score for each photograph was used in data analysis. Results showed that gold medallists displayed greater levels of happiness than silver medallists but that silver and bronze medallists showed little difference in their expressed happiness. In Study 2, 192 quotations from bronze and silver medallists were obtained from news outlets, and 20 students rated the expression of counterfactual thought in each quotation. Results showed that compared to bronze medallists, silver medallists had more counterfactual thoughts overall, more counterfactual thoughts about how things could have gone better, and more counterfactual thoughts about their opponents' behaviour. Overall, findings indicate that counterfactual thoughts differ between bronze and silver medallists, but that differences in expressed emotion are likely to be trivial or negligible.