Prediction of Thromboembolic Events in Heart Failure Patients in Sinus Rhythm: The Hong Kong Heart Failure Registry

Prognoses and risk stratification of thrombus-associated events in heart failure patients without atrial fibrillation

AIMS

We aim to assess the risk of thrombus-associated events (TAE) in patients with heart failure (HF) without atrial fibrillation (AF) and develop an effective scoring system for a risk stratification model.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This retrospective study included 450 patients (median age 64.0 years, interquartile range [55.0, 75.0]; 31.6% women) hospitalized for HF without AF and atrial flutter, but with a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) ≤ 55% and New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class of III-IV. A median follow-up of 47 months was conducted. In the present study, TAE during follow-up was independently associated with both all-cause death [hazard ratio (HR) 1.756, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.324-2.328, P < 0.001] and readmission for HF (HR 1.574, 95% CI 1.122-2.208, P = 0.009) after adjustment for covariates. Hypertension (HR 1.573, 95% CI 1.018-2.429, P = 0.041), atrial arrhythmia excluding AF (AAexAF) (HR 2.041, 95% CI 1.066-3.908, P = 0.031), previous ischaemic stroke (HR 2.469, 95% CI 1.576-3.869, P < 0.001), and vascular disease (HR 1.658, 95% CI 1.074-2.562, P = 0.023) were independently associated with TAE. Age (HR 1.021, 95% CI 1.008-1.033, P = 0.001), previous ischaemic stroke (HR 1.685, 95% CI 1.248-2.274, P = 0.001), LVEF ([10, 25] vs. [40, 55]) HR 1.925, 95% CI 1.311-2.826, P = 0.001; (25, 40] vs. (40, 55] HR 1.084, 95% CI 0.825-1.424, P = 0.563), and creatinine clearance rate (Ccr) (HR 0.991, 95% CI 0.986-0.996, P = 0.001) were independently associated with composite events of TAE and death (TAE-D). CHA2DS2VASc modestly predicted 5-year TAE [area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) 0.660, P < 0.001 compared with 0.5] and TAE-D (AUC 0.639, P < 0.001 compared with 0.5). (C)ACE, formed by incorporating AAexAF, LVEF, and Ccr into CHA2DS2VASc, had higher AUC for predicting 5-year TAE (0.694 vs. 0.660, P = 0.018) and TAE-D (0.708 vs. 0.639, P < 0.001) compared with CHA2DS2VASc. In patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), (C)ACE and (C)ACEN [formed by incorporating NYHA into (C)ACE] had higher AUC compared with CHA2DS2VASc in predicting 5-year TAE (0.700 and 0.707 vs. 0.649, P = 0.013 and 0.030, respectively) and TAE-D (0.712 and 0.713 vs. 0.622, P < 0.001 and <0.001, respectively). The AUC did not improve statistically from (C)ACE to (C)ACEN (0.700 vs. 0.707, P = 0.600 for TAE; 0.712 vs. 0.713, P = 0.917 for TAE-D).

CONCLUSIONS

In HF without AF, TAE during follow-up was associated with adverse prognoses. The independent risk factors of TAE or TAE-D improved CHA2DS2-VASc predictive ability, especially in patients with HFrEF. Our findings provide new evidence for TAE risk stratification in HF without AF, potentially guiding prophylactic anticoagulation.

The effect of anticoagulants on clinical outcomes of mortality, stroke, myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, and major bleeding for patients with heart failure in sinus rhythm

One to two percent of the population in developed countries are affected by chronic heart failure and this increases to greater than 10% in those over 70 years old. Heart failure (HF) predisposes patients to thromboembolic events. Anticoagulants are often used to prevent thromboembolic events in specific patient populations, such as those with atrial fibrillation. Currently, no guidance exists on the long-term use of anticoagulants for patients with HF in sinus rhythm. This article critically appraises a systematic review which assesses whether the long-term use of oral anticoagulants reduces total mortality and stroke in patients with HF in sinus rhythm.

Thromboembolism in Heart Failure Patients in Sinus Rhythm: Epidemiology, Pathophysiology, Clinical Trials, and Future Direction

Despite advances in medical and device therapy, patients with heart failure remain at high risk for morbidity and mortality. Experimental and clinical studies have shown an association between heart failure and a hypercoagulable state, and that patients with heart failure experience an increased incidence of stroke and other thromboembolic events, regardless of whether they are in atrial fibrillation. Although oral anticoagulation is recommended when atrial fibrillation is present, the benefits of this therapy in patients with heart failure in sinus rhythm are uncertain. Older randomized controlled trials comparing warfarin with antiplatelet therapy were, for the most part, underpowered and failed to show convincing benefits of warfarin therapy in this population. Several recent studies that assessed the effects of low-dose direct-acting oral anticoagulant therapy in patients with coronary artery disease in sinus rhythm either included or specifically targeted patients with heart failure. Post hoc analysis of their results showed that this treatment strategy was associated with improved outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome or stable coronary artery disease and also a significant reduction in thromboembolic events, including ischemic stroke. This review presents the rationale for anticoagulant therapy in patients with heart failure in sinus rhythm, discusses gaps in our knowledge base, offers suggestions for when anticoagulation might be considered, and identifies potential directions for future research.

Specific situations may require different relative indications

In specific situations such as patient with severely dilated left ventricle (LV) and spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) who suffered an ischemic stroke previously may be an acceptable indication for oral anticoagulation to prevent further TE events.

Body volume is the major determinant of worsening renal function in acutely decompensated heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction

AIMS

Little is known about the relative importance of body volume and haemodynamic parameters in the development of worsening of renal function in acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF). To study the relationship between haemodynamic parameters, body water content and worsening of renal function in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) hospitalised for ADHF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This prospective observational study involved 51 consecutive patients with HFrEF (age: 73±14 years, male: 60%, left ventricular ejection fraction: 33.3%±9.9%) hospitalised for ADHF. Echocardiographic-determined haemodynamic parameters and body volume determined using a bioelectric impedance analyser were serially obtained. All patients received intravenous furosemide 160 mg/day for 3 days. There was a mean weight loss of 3.95±2.82 kg (p<0.01), and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) reduced from 1380±901 pg/mL to 797±738 pg/mL (p<0.01). Nonetheless serum creatinine (SCr) increased from 134±46 μmol/L to 151±53 μmol/L (p<0.01), and 35% of patients developed worsening of renal function. The change in SCr was positively correlated with age (r=0.34, p=0.017); and negatively with the ratio of extracellular water to total body water, a parameter of body volume status (r=-0.58, p<0.001); E:E' ratio (r=-0.36, p=0.01); right ventricular systolic pressure (r=-0.40, p=0.009); and BNP (r=-0.40, p=0.004). Counterintuitively, no correlation was observed between SCr and cardiac output, or total peripheral vascular resistance. Regression analysis revealed that normal body volume and lower BNP independently predicted worsening of renal function.

CONCLUSIONS

Normal body volume and lower serum BNP on admission were associated with worsening of renal function in patients with HFrEF hospitalised for ADHF.

Protocol, rationale and design of DAbigatran for Stroke PreVention In Atrial Fibrillation in MoDerate or Severe Mitral Stenosis (DAVID-MS): a randomised, open-label study

INTRODUCTION

Current international guidelines recommend non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) for stroke prevention among patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) at significant ischaemic stroke risk given the superior safety and comparable efficacy of NOACs over warfarin. Nonetheless, the safety and effectiveness of NOACs have not been evaluated in patients with AF with underlying moderate or severe mitral stenosis (MS), hence the recommended stroke prevention strategy remains warfarin therapy.

METHOD AND ANALYSIS

MS remains disproportionately prevalent in Asian countries compared with the developed countries. This prospective, randomised, open-label trial with blinded endpoint adjudication aims to evaluate the safety and efficacy of dabigatran for stroke prevention in AF patients with moderate or severe MS. Patients with AF aged ≥18 years with moderate or severe MS not planned for valvular intervention in the coming 12 months will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive dabigatran 110 mg or 150 mg two times per day or warfarin with international normalised ratio 2-3 in an open-label design. Patients with estimated creatinine clearance <30 mL/min, or with a concomitant indication for antiplatelet therapy will be excluded. The primary outcome is a composite of stroke and systemic embolism. Secondary outcomes are ischaemic stroke, systemic embolism, haemorrhagic stroke, intracranial haemorrhage, major bleeding and death. The estimated required sample size is approximately 686 participants.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study protocol has been approved by the Institutional Review Board of the University of Hong Kong and Hong Kong West Cluster, Hospital Authority, Hong Kong for Fung Yiu King Hospital, Grantham Hospital, Queen Mary Hospital and Tung Wah Hospital in Hong Kong. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov Registry (NCT04045093); pre-results.

CHA2DS2-VASc Score Predicts Adverse Outcome in Patients with Simple Congenital Heart Disease Regardless of Cardiac Rhythm

Adult patients with simple congenital heart disease (sACHD) represent an expanding population vulnerable to atrial arrhythmias (AA). CHA₂DS₂-VASc score estimates thromboembolic risk in non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients. We investigated the prognostic role of CHA₂DS₂-VASc score in a non-selected sACHD population regardless of cardiac rhythm. Between November 2009 and June 2018, 427 sACHD patients (377 in sinus rhythm, 50 in AA) were consecutively referred to our ACHD service. Cardiovascular hospitalization and/or all-cause death were considered as composite primary end-point. Patients were divided into group A with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score = 0 or 1 point, and group B with a score greater than 1 point. Group B included 197 patients (46%) who were older with larger prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors than group A. During a mean follow-up of 70 months (IQR 40-93), primary end-point occurred in 94 patients (22%): 72 (37%) in group B and 22 (10%, p < 0.001) in group A. Rate of death for all causes was also significantly higher in the group B than A (22% vs 2%, respectively, p < 0.001). Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was independently related to the primary end-point (HR 1.84 [1.22-2.77], p = 0.004) together with retrospective AA, stroke/TIA/peripheral thromboembolism and diabetes. Furthermore, CHA₂DS₂-VASc score independently predicted primary end-point in the large subgroup of 377 patients with sinus rhythm (HR 2.79 [1.54-5.07], p = 0.01). In conclusion, CHA₂DS₂-VASc score accurately stratifies sACHD patients with different risk for adverse clinical events in the long term regardless of cardiac rhythm.

Prognostic implications of statin intolerance in stable coronary artery disease patients with different levels of high-sensitive troponin

Background

The prognostic implication of statin in tolerance (SI) in those with stable CAD remains unclear. We hypothesized that SI is of higher prognostic significance in stable CAD patients with elevated high-sensitive cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI).

Methods

A total of 952 stable CAD patients from the prospective Hong Kong CAD study who had complete clinical data, biomarker measurements and who were prescribed statin therapy were studied.

Results

We identified 13 (1.4%) and 125 (13.1%) patients with complete and partial SI, respectively. At baseline, patients with SI were more likely to have diabetes mellitus and a higher hs-cTnI level, but no difference in LDL-C level compared with those without SI. After 51 months of follow-up, patients with SI had a higher mean LDL-C level than those without SI. A total of 148 (15.5%) patients developed major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Both SI (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.06–2.19, P = 0.02) and elevated hs-cTnI (HR 3.18, 95% CI 2.07–4.89, P < 0.01) were independent predictors of a MACE in patients with stable CAD. When stratified by hs-cTnI level, SI independently predicted MACE-free survival only in those with elevated hs-cTnI (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.01–2.24, P = 0.04).

Conclusions

SI independently predicted MACE in patients with stable CAD and high hs-cTnI, but not in those with low hs-cTnI. Hs-cTnI may be used to stratify stable CAD patients who have SI for intensive lipid-lowering therapy using non-statin agents.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12872-019-1152-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.