Wildlife Population Dynamics in Human-Dominated Landscapes under Community-Based Conservation: The Example of Nakuru Wildlife Conservancy, Kenya

Activitybudget and foraging patterns ofNubian giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis camelopardalis) in Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya

The activity budget of giraffe in various African populations has been studied extensively, revealing that it is affected by body size, foraging patterns, and sex. Foraging patterns show an animal's feeding choices in its environment and are influenced by resource availability, competition, and predation risk. The ability of giraffe to survive and reproduce is significantly impacted by the variation in activity budget and foraging across different ecosystems. Our study focused on evaluating the seasonal activity budgets and foraging patterns of Nubian giraffe in Lake Nakuru National Park, Kenya. We used the scan sampling method to record the activity budget of giraffe which included foraging, movement, resting, and drinking water. We then evaluated if activities varied with the seasons. A total of 11,280 activities were documented, with 4560 (40.4%) occurring during the dry season and 6720 (59.6%) during the wet season. Foraging accounted for 53% of the time budget during the dry season, but increased to 57% during the wet season. There was a slight drop in records of movement (22%; n = 995 of 4560) and resting (25%; n = 1145 of 4560) from the dry season to the wet season (20%; n = 1375 out of 6720 and 22%; n = 1515 of 6720). During the dry season, females (53%) foraged longer than males (47%), whereas males (44%) had longer resting periods than females (56%). Giraffe frequently fed on Vachellia xanthophloea (67%; n = 4136 of 6215 foraging records), Maytenus senegalensis (19%), and Solanum incanum (9%) over both seasons. Overall, seasons had little impact on giraffe activity time budgets and foraging patterns in Lake Nakuru National Park. A better insight into the behavioural patterns of this subspecies will allow managers to enhance the protection and conservation of the species and its habitat. Heavy foraging on Vachellia by giraffe at LNNP has been associated with a population decline in number, so perhaps planting more of this species in LNNP could promote a rebound in numbers.

Social-ecological predictors of spotted hyena navigation through a shared landscape

Human-wildlife interactions are increasing in severity due to climate change and proliferating urbanization. Regions where human infrastructure and activity are rapidly densifying or newly appearing constitute novel environments in which wildlife must learn to coexist with people, thereby serving as ideal case studies with which to infer future human-wildlife interactions in shared landscapes. As a widely reviled and behaviorally plastic apex predator, the spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) is a model species for understanding how large carnivores navigate these human-caused 'landscapes of fear' in a changing world. Using high-resolution GPS collar data, we applied resource selection functions and step selection functions to assess spotted hyena landscape navigation and fine-scale movement decisions in relation to social-ecological features in a rapidly developing region comprising two protected areas: Lake Nakuru National Park and Soysambu Conservancy, Kenya. We then used camera trap imagery and Barrier Behavior Analysis (BaBA) to further examine hyena interactions with barriers. Our results show that environmental factors, linear infrastructure, human-carnivore conflict hotspots, and human tolerance were all important predictors for landscape-scale resource selection by hyenas, while human experience elements were less important for fine-scale hyena movement decisions. Hyena selection for these characteristics also changed seasonally and across land management types. Camera traps documented an exceptionally high number of individual spotted hyenas (234) approaching the national park fence at 16 sites during the study period, and BaBA results suggested that hyenas perceive protected area boundaries' semi-permeable electric fences as risky but may cross them out of necessity. Our findings highlight that the ability of carnivores to flexibly respond within human-caused landscapes of fear may be expressed differently depending on context, scale, and climatic factors. These results also point to the need to incorporate societal factors into multiscale analyses of wildlife movement to effectively plan for human-wildlife coexistence.

Analyzing the determinants of beef cattle commercialization and Its market inefficiency: A case study of Pabna district, Bangladesh

The world has entered a new era of globalization and industrialization, which pose several challenges to ensuring food security. Beef cattle production is one of the fastest-growing subsectors that has the capacity to meet protein demand. Due to growing demand of meat and protein and a market-oriented production system, small-scale beef cattle production contribute most to marginal farmers as a means of rising income in many developing nations like Bangladesh. Though production and commercialization are not easier for households' due to various factors and a lack of market efficiency. To determine beef cattle commercialization and market inefficiency, the current study focused on the determinants of beef cattle commercialization and the challenges to the of market efficiency. Heckman's two-stage model used to determine the factors that influence households' commercialization decisions, and the two-stage least squares method is used to examine the constraints of market inefficiencies. However, commercialization decisions offer twofold decision of commercialization and degree of commercialization. The result showed that commercialization decisions are significantly influenced by households' age, extension services, and production costs. The degree of commercialization was affected by education, marketing costs, income from dairy, transportation costs, and training access. On the other hand, market inefficiency was influenced by formal market access, distance, extension services, and earning from cattle. As extension services worsen both commercialization decisions and market efficiency, the government should focus on extension services and offer farmers opportunities to increase their understanding and knowledge of marketing.

Long-term trends in elephant mortality and their causes in Kenya

High mortality poses a serious threat to sustainable conservation of the African elephant (Loxodonta africana). Using detected carcass data collected by the Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) during 1992-2017, we analyze temporal and spatial variation in elephant mortality in Kenya. We investigate the major mortality causes and means used to kill elephants, carcass category, tusk recovery status, variation in mortality with elephant age and sex classes, differences between inside and outside protected areas (PAs), the Proportion of Illegally Killed Elephants (PIKE) and the overall mortality rate (MR — the number of dead/number of live elephants in a given year). In total 9,182 elephant deaths were recorded during the 26 years. Elephant mortality increased over time and was attributed primarily to natural (33.1%) and human-related causes, particularly ivory poaching (31.5%) and human-elephant conflicts (19.9%). Elephant mortality varied across Kenya’s 47 counties in correspondence with variation in elephant population size and was the highest in the leading elephant range counties of Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Samburu and Meru. Mortality was higher for males and adults and outside the protected areas. Most elephant carcasses had tusks (75.1%) but a few did not (12.5%). Yearly PIKE values peaked in 2012, the year with the highest poaching levels in Kenya during 1992-2017. MR increased throughout 1992-2017. Temporal variation in elephant mortality probability was significantly influenced by human and livestock population densities, average annual maximum temperature and total annual rainfall and the strength of these influences varied across the seven leading elephant range counties of Kenya. Natural processes are increasingly contributing to elephant mortality likely due to climate change and the associated food and water stress, exacerbated by contracting range. Enhancing anti-poaching and strategies for mitigating climate change impacts and human-elephant conflict and reducing range contraction while sustaining habitat connectivity can help reduce mortality and promote elephant conservation. Strengthening enforcement of international wildlife laws can further reduce illegal trade in tusks and killing of elephants.

Examining Drivers of Divergence in Recorded and Perceived Human-Carnivore Conflict Hotspots by Integrating Participatory and Ecological Data

Human-carnivore conflict is a global challenge with complex and context-specific causes and consequences. While spatial analyses can use ecological principles to predict patterns of conflict, solutions to mitigate conflict must also be locally adaptable, sustainable, and culturally-sensitive. In Nakuru County, Kenya, rapid development and land subdivision have exacerbated conflict by isolating wildlife in protected areas that are increasingly adjacent to human settlements. In an effort to understand local perspectives on carnivore conflict, and to apply this information toward locally-based conservations actions, we conducted gender-stratified interviews and participatory mapping sessions with 378 people in 16 villages near two ecologically isolated protected areas in Kenya: Lake Nakuru National Park and Soysambu Conservancy. Specifically, we developed a method for associating interview responses and demographic information with spatial participatory data to examine how local perceptions of conflict compared to spatially-explicit records of livestock depredation in the region from 2010 to 2018. We mapped kernel densities of recorded and perceived risk of human-carnivore conflict and then tested for potential social and ecological predictors of divergences found between the two datasets. Mismatched hotspots of observed and perceived risk of conflict were correlated with several ecological and socioeconomic factors. Regions with higher NDVI exhibited more perceived conflict, while the opposite held true for verified conflict. Road density was positively correlated with both types of conflict, and both types of conflict increased closer to protected areas. Livestock ownership, visitation to Lake Nakuru National Park, if the participant's child walked to school, and male gender identity were associated with more perceived conflict reports. Education level and national park visitation were associated with more positive attitudes toward carnivores. Our results show that while observed and perceived conflict may ultimately be equally important for understanding and managing human-carnivore conflict, they may be driven by markedly different social and ecological processes. We suggest that integrating the spatially explicit experiences and perspectives of local communities with more traditional ecological methods is critical to identifying lasting and socially just forms of conflict mitigation.

Hunter-Gatherers in context: Mammal community composition in a northern Tanzania landscape used by Hadza foragers and Datoga pastoralists

In many regions of sub Saharan Africa large mammals occur in human-dominated areas, yet their community composition and abundance have rarely been described in areas occupied by traditional hunter-gatherers and pastoralists. Surveys of mammal populations in such areas provide important measures of biodiversity and provide ecological context for understanding hunting practices. Using a sampling grid centered on a Hadza hunter-gatherer camp and covering 36 km² of semi-arid savannah in northern Tanzania, we assessed mammals using camera traps (n = 19 stations) for c. 5 months (2,182 trap nights). In the study area (Tli’ika in the Hadza language), we recorded 36 wild mammal species. Rarefaction curves suggest that sampling effort was sufficient to capture mammal species richness, yet some species known to occur at low densities in the wider area (e.g. African lions, wildebeest) were not detected. Relative abundance indices of wildlife species varied by c. three orders of magnitude, from a mean of 0.04 (African wild dog) to 20.34 capture events per 100 trap-nights (Kirk’s dik dik). To contextualize the relative abundance of wildlife in the study area, we compared our study’s data to comparable camera trap data collected in a fully protected area of northern Tanzania with similar rainfall (Lake Manyara National Park). Raw data and negative binomial regression analyses show that wild herbivores and wild carnivores were generally detected in the national park at higher rates than in the Hadza-occupied region. Livestock were notably absent from the national park, but were detected at high levels in Tli’ika, and cattle was the second most frequently detected species in the Hadza-used area. We discuss how these data inform current conservation efforts, studies of Hadza hunting, and models of hunter-gatherer foraging ecology and diet.

Assessing Interactions between Agriculture, Livestock Grazing and Wildlife Conservation Land Uses: A Historical Example from East Africa

Despite mobile livestock grazing being widely recognized as one of the most viable and sustainable land uses for semi-arid savanna, which can deliver clear wildlife conservation benefits, the levels of pastoral sedentarization and transitions to agricultural livelihoods continue to rise in many pastoral communities across the world. Using questionnaire interviews with community elders, our study assessed changing trends in livestock grazing, wildlife conservation, and sedentarization levels from the 1960s to the present day across three savannas in southern Kenya. Our study identified the drivers of land uses and land subdivision and the implications of land use change on savanna ecology. Over the last half century, there has been a 30% decline in livestock grazing land in southern Kenya due to the expansion of land for agriculture and wildlife conservation. Despite the decline, livestock grazing remains the preferred land use in subdivided and privatized lands. Pastoralist land used for wildlife conservation was perceived to be higher (30%) in southwestern Kenya compared to southeastern Kenya (16%), despite their geographical proximity. These historical insights provide useful lessons for maintaining space for wildlife, diversifying livelihoods, and increasing the resilience of pastoralists in the process of transitioning from traditional subsistence to market economies and the threats of social and ecological dislocation.

Aboveground Biomass Distribution in a Multi-Use Savannah Landscape in Southeastern Kenya: Impact of Land Use and Fences

Savannahs provide valuable ecosystem services and contribute to continental and global carbon budgets. In addition, savannahs exhibit multiple land uses, e.g., wildlife conservation, pastoralism, and crop farming. Despite their importance, the effect of land use on woody aboveground biomass (AGB) in savannahs is understudied. Furthermore, fences used to reduce human–wildlife conflicts may affect AGB patterns. We assessed AGB densities and patterns, and the effect of land use and fences on AGB in a multi-use savannah landscape in southeastern Kenya. AGB was assessed with field survey and airborne laser scanning (ALS) data, and a land cover map was developed using Sentinel-2 satellite images in Google Earth Engine. The highest woody AGB was found in riverine forest in a conservation area and in bushland outside the conservation area. The highest mean AGB density occurred in the non-conservation area with mixed bushland and cropland (8.9 Mg·ha−1), while the lowest AGB density (2.6 Mg·ha−1) occurred in overgrazed grassland in the conservation area. The largest differences in AGB distributions were observed in the fenced boundaries between the conservation and other land-use types. Our results provide evidence that conservation and fences can create sharp AGB transitions and lead to reduced AGB stocks, which is a vital role of savannahs as part of carbon sequestration.

Genetic connectivity and population structure of African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) in Tanzania

Increasing human population growth, exurban development, and associated habitat fragmentation is accelerating the isolation of many natural areas and wildlife populations across the planet. In Tanzania, rapid and ongoing habitat conversion to agriculture has severed many of the country's former wildlife corridors between protected areas. To identify historically linked protected areas, we investigated the genetic structure and gene flow of African savanna elephants in Tanzania using microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA markers in 688 individuals sampled in 2015 and 2017. Our results indicate distinct population genetic structure within and between ecosystems across Tanzania, and reveal important priority areas for connectivity conservation. In northern Tanzania, elephants sampled from the Tarangire-Manyara ecosystem appear marginally, yet significantly isolated from elephants sampled from the greater Serengeti ecosystem (mean F ST = 0.03), where two distinct subpopulations were identified.Unexpectedly, elephants in the Lake Manyara region appear to be more closely related to those across the East African Rift wall in the Ngorongoro Conservation Area than they are to the neighboring Tarangire subpopulations. We concluded that the Rift wall has had a negligible influence on genetic differentiation up to this point, but differentiation may accelerate in the future because of ongoing loss of corridors in the area. Interestingly, relatively high genetic similarity was found between elephants in Tarangire and Ruaha although they are separated by >400 km. In southern Tanzania, there was little evidence of female-mediated gene flow between Ruaha and Selous, probably due to the presence of the Udzungwa Mountains between them. Despite observing evidence of significant isolation, the populations of elephants we examined generally exhibited robust levels of allelic richness (mean A R = 9.96), heterozygosity (mean µH E = 0.73), and effective population sizes (mean N e = 148). Our results may inform efforts to restore wildlife corridors between protected areas in Tanzania in order to facilitate gene flow for long-term survival of elephants and other species.

Long-term persistence of wildlife populations in a pastoral area

Facilitating coexistence between people and wildlife is a major conservation challenge in East Africa. Some conservation models aim to balance the needs of people and wildlife, but the effectiveness of these models is rarely assessed. Using a case-study approach, we assessed the ecological performance of a pastoral area in northern Tanzania (Manyara Ranch) and established a long-term wildlife population monitoring program (carried out intermittently from 2003 to 2008 and regularly from 2011 to 2019) embedded in a distance sampling framework. By comparing density estimates of the road transect-based long-term monitoring to estimates derived from systematically distributed transects, we found that the bias associated with nonrandom placement of transects was nonsignificant. Overall, cattle and sheep and goat reached the greatest densities and several wildlife species occurred at densities similar (zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, Kirk's dik-dik) or possibly even greater (giraffe, eland, lesser kudu, Grant's gazelle, Thomson's gazelle) than in adjacent national parks in the same ecosystem. Generalized linear mixed models suggested that most wildlife species (8 out of 14) reached greatest densities during the dry season, that wildlife population densities either remained constant or increased over the 17-year period, and that herbivorous livestock species remained constant, while domestic dog population decreased over time. Cross-species correlations did not provide evidence for interference competition between grazing or mixed livestock species and wildlife species but indicate possible negative relationships between domestic dog and warthog populations. Overall, wildlife and livestock populations in Manyara Ranch appear to coexist over the 17-year span. Most likely, this is facilitated by existing connectivity to adjacent protected areas, effective anti-poaching efforts, spatio-temporal grazing restrictions, favorable environmental conditions of the ranch, and spatial heterogeneity of surface water and habitats. This long-term case study illustrates the potential of rangelands to simultaneously support wildlife conservation and human livelihood goals if livestock grazing is restricted in space, time, and numbers.

Incorporating social-ecological complexities into conservation policy

In the process of developing new conservation policies, policymakers must have access to information which will inform their decisions. Evidence rarely considers the complexities of social-ecological systems. The Social-Ecological Systems Framework (SESF) is an adaptable yet structured approach for understanding the processes that lead to changes in natural resources, using a systems-based approach that aims to treat ecological and social components equally. Few conservation planning and policy initiatives have implemented the SESF to assess the interlinked social and ecological consequences of conservation policies. We apply the SESF to explore the barriers to the potential implementation of a policy of consumptive utilisation of wildlife in Kenya, a policy regarded as successful in several southern African countries. Using secondary data and expert review we developed a conceptual model of the social-ecological system associated with consumptive utilisation of wildlife in Kenya. We then analysed how different combinations of first and second-tier variables interacted to create focal action situations, and subsequently identified seven barriers to this policy. Our analysis revealed that game ranching would require large-scale investment in effective monitoring systems, new regulations, training, market development and research, considerations about equity, and devolved ownership of wildlife. The least barriers existed for game farming. The SESF appears to be a useful framework for this purpose. In particular, it can help to reveal potential social and ecological barriers which conservation policies might face in attempting to meet intended goals. The information required to implement the SESF are necessarily cross-disciplinary, which can make it challenging to synthesise.

Long-term historical and projected herbivore population dynamics in Ngorongoro crater, Tanzania

The Ngorongoro Crater is an intact caldera with an area of approximately 310 km² located within the Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA) in northern Tanzania. It is known for the abundance and diversity of its wildlife and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and an International Biosphere Reserve. Long term records (1963–2012) on herbivore populations, vegetation and rainfall made it possible to analyze historic and project future herbivore population dynamics. NCA was established as a multiple use area in 1959. In 1974 there was a perturbation in that resident Maasai and their livestock were removed from the Ngorongoro Crater. Thus, their pasture management that was a combination of livestock grazing and fire was also removed and 'burning' stopped being a regular occurrence until it was resumed in 2001 by NCA management. The Maasai pasture management would have selected for shorter grasses and more palatable species. Vegetation mapping in 1966–1967 recorded predominately short grasslands. Subsequent vegetation mapping in the crater in 1995 determined that the grassland structure had changed such that mid and tall grasses were dominant. After removal of the Maasai pastoralists from the Ngorongoro Crater in 1974, there were significant changes in population trends for some herbivore species. Buffalo, elephant and ostrich numbers increased significantly during 1974–2012. The zebra population was stable from 1963 to 2012 whereas population numbers of five species declined substantially between 1974 and 2012 relative to their peak numbers during 1974–1976. Grant’s and Thomson’s gazelles, eland, kongoni, and waterbuck (wet season only) declined significantly in the Crater in both seasons after 1974. In addition, some herbivore species were consistently more abundant inside the Crater during the wet than the dry season. This pattern was most evident for the large herbivore species requiring bulk forage, i.e., buffalo, eland, and elephant. Even with a change in grassland structure, total herbivore biomass remained relatively stable from 1963 to 2012, implying that the crater has a stable carrying capacity. Analyses of rainfall indicated that there was a persistent cycle of 4.83 years for the annual component. Herbivore population size was correlated with rainfall in both the wet and dry seasons. The relationships established between the time series of historic animal counts in the wet and dry seasons and lagged wet and dry season rainfall series were used to forecast the likely future trajectories of the wet and dry season population size for each species under three alternative climate change scenarios.

Community-based wildlife management area supports similar mammal species richness and densities compared to a national park

Community-based conservation models have been widely implemented across Africa to improve wildlife conservation and livelihoods of rural communities. In Tanzania, communities can set aside land and formally register it as Wildlife Management Area (WMA), which allows them to generate revenue via consumptive or nonconsumptive utilization of wildlife. The key, yet often untested, assumption of this model is that economic benefits accrued from wildlife motivate sustainable management of wildlife. To test the ecological effectiveness (here defined as persistence of wildlife populations) of Burunge Wildlife Management Area (BWMA), we employed a participatory monitoring approach involving WMA personnel. At intermittent intervals between 2011 and 2018, we estimated mammal species richness and population densities of ten mammal species (African elephant, giraffe, buffalo, zebra, wildebeest, waterbuck, warthog, impala, Kirk's dik-dik, and vervet monkey) along line transects. We compared mammal species accumulation curves and density estimates with those of time-matched road transect surveys conducted in adjacent Tarangire National Park (TNP). Mammal species richness estimates were similar in both areas, yet observed species richness per transect was greater in TNP compared to BWMA. Species-specific density estimates of time-matched surveys were mostly not significantly different between BWMA and TNP, but elephants occasionally reached greater densities in TNP compared to BWMA. In BWMA, elephant, wildebeest, and impala populations showed significant increases from 2011 to 2018. These results suggest that community-based conservation models can support mammal communities and densities that are similar to national park baselines. In light of the ecological success of this case study, we emphasize the need for continued efforts to ensure that the BWMA is effective. This will require adaptive management to counteract potential negative repercussions of wildlife populations on peoples' livelihoods. This study can be used as a model to evaluate the effectiveness of wildlife management areas across Tanzania.

Aedes vector-host olfactory interactions in sylvatic and domestic dengue transmission environments

Interactions between Aedes (Stegomyia) species and non-human primate (NHP) and human hosts govern the transmission of the pathogens, dengue, zika, yellow fever and chikungunya viruses. Little is known about Aedes mosquito olfactory interactions with these hosts in the domestic and sylvatic cycles where these viruses circulate. Here, we explore how the different host-derived skin odours influence Aedes mosquito responses in these two environments. In field assays, we show that the cyclic ketone cyclohexanone is a signature cue for Aedes mosquitoes to detect the NHP baboon, sykes and vervet, whereas for humans, it is the unsaturated aliphatic keto-analogue 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one (sulcatone). We find that in the sylvatic environment, CO₂-baited traps combined with either cyclohexanone or sulcatone increased trap catches of Aedes mosquitoes compared to traps either baited with CO₂ alone or CO₂ combined with NHP- or human-derived crude skin odours. In the domestic environment, each of these odourants and crude human skin odours increased Aedes aegypti catches in CO₂-baited traps. These results expand our knowledge on the role of host odours in the ecologies of Aedes mosquitoes, and the likelihood of associated spread of pathogens between primates and humans. Both cyclohexanone and sulcatone have potential practical applications as lures for monitoring Aedes disease vectors.

Bridging the divide between scientists and decision-makers: how behavioural ecologists can increase the conservation impact of their research?

Effective conservation management is underpinned by science. Yet, there are often barriers against the incorporation of up-to-date scientific research into decision-making and policy. Here, we draw on experience from a multi-nation approach to conserve cheetah and African wild dogs across Africa, using relationships between scientists and managers established over more than a decade, to better understand scientific information needs of managers. While our analysis focuses on Africa, many of our findings are likely to be relevant to other regions. Managers view science as critical to their decision-making processes and strongly support scientific research, particularly when research directly addresses their information needs. However, managers reported problems in accessing final results and highlighted the need to access raw ecological data from research undertaken within protected areas. Fundamental to improving the management relevance of scientific research is the need for scientists to engage with managers through all steps of the research process, from project design and implementation through to scientific publication and end-of-project agreements. Effective engagement requires open and clear communication; including agreed processes for access to biodiversity data and submission of final results. In order to foster future scientific endeavours and collaborations, systems should be established to better facilitate information exchange, while also safeguarding the rights of scientists to publish their data and protect their academic freedom. Our analysis also calls for a greater awareness of the geo-political context under which science is undertaken, and for increased scientific participation through an inclusive approach that recognizes, and gives credit to, a wider diversity of scientific contributions and expertise. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'.

Land use, REDD+ and the status of wildlife populations in Yaeda Valley, northern Tanzania

REDD+ projects primarily focus on reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries. These projects are regularly evaluated against their core objective of conserving carbon stocks, but their contribution to biodiversity conservation has rarely been assessed. To assess the conservation value of the area and the relative performance of a REDD+ land use plan in Yaeda Valley, a semi-arid savannah ecosystem in northern Tanzania, we implemented an annual wildlife monitoring scheme. Based on direct sightings and indirect signs of wildlife, obtained from stratified walking transects conducted annually from 2015–2018, we estimated annual trends of mammal species richness and wildlife densities in three REDD+ and three non-REDD+ land-use strata. Our surveys document a near complete mammal community in the area. Species accumulation curves, and subsequent statistical comparisons, indicated highest mammal species richness in the woodland habitats (both REDD+ and non REDD+ strata) as compared to more human and livestock impacted areas, and suggested constant species richness from 2015–2018. To estimate stratum- and year-specific livestock and wildlife densities (cattle, donkey, goat and sheep combined, Thomson’s gazelle, Kirk’s dik-dik) and wildlife sign densities (aardvark, bushbuck, bushpig, Kirk’s dik dik, eland, elephant, Maasai giraffe, greater kudu, hyena, impala, lesser kudu, warthog, wildebeest, Plains zebra), we fitted species-specific detection functions in a distance sampling framework. Species-specific densities varied between 2015 and 2018 and showed substantial increases and occasional declines in other species-stratum combinations. However, population growth rates were not systematically associated with specific land-use strata. Although our results do not explicitly provide evidence that REDD+ land-use plans directly co-benefit wildlife conservation, they show that REDD+ areas have the potential to maintain intact wildlife assemblages. To ensure effective long-term conservation outcomes, we advocate for a more formal integration of wildlife conservation goals in the REDD+ scheme.

Diet and prey selection by snow leopards in the Nepalese Himalayas

Visual attractiveness and rarity often results in large carnivores being adopted as flagship species for stimulating conservation awareness. Their hunting behaviour and prey selection can affect the population dynamics of their prey, which in turn affects the population dynamics of these large carnivores. Therefore, our understanding of their trophic ecology and foraging strategies is important for predicting their population dynamics and consequently for developing effective conservation programs. Here we concentrate on an endangered species of carnivores, the snow leopard, in the Himalayas. Most previous studies on snow leopard diet lack information on prey availability and/or did not genetically check, whether the identification of snow leopard scats is correct, as their scats are similar to those of other carnivores. We studied the prey of snow leopard in three Himalayan regions in Nepal (Sagarmatha National Park (SNP), Lower Mustang (LM) and Upper Manang (UM) in the Annapurna Conservation Area, during winter and summer in 2014-2016. We collected 268 scats along 139.3 km linear transects, of which 122 were genetically confirmed to belong to snow leopard. Their diet was identified by comparing hairs in scats with our reference collection of the hairs of potential prey. We determined prey availability using 32-48 camera-traps and 4,567 trap nights. In the SNP, the most frequent prey in snow leopard faeces was the Himalayan tahr in both winter and summer. In LM and UM, its main prey was blue sheep in winter, but yak and goat in summer. In terms of relative biomass consumed, yak was the main prey everywhere in both seasons. Snow leopard preferred large prey and avoided small prey in summer but not in winter, with regional differences. It preferred domestic to wild prey only in winter, and in SNP. Unlike most other studies carried out in the same area, our study uses genetic methods for identifying the source of the scat. Studies solely based on visual identification of samples may be strongly biased. Diet studies based on frequency of occurrence of prey tend to overestimate the importance of small prey, which may be consumed more often, but contribute less energy than large prey. However, even assessments based on prey biomass are unlikely to be accurate as we do not know whether the actual size of the prey consumed corresponds to the average size used to calculate the biomass eaten. For example, large adults may be too difficult to catch and therefore mostly young animals are consumed, whose weight is much lower. We show that snow leopard consumes a diverse range of prey, which varies both regionally and seasonally. We conclude that in order to conserve snow leopards it is also necessary to conserve its main wild species of prey, which will reduce the incidence of losses of livestock.

Rainfall trends and variation in the Maasai Mara ecosystem and their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics

Rainfall exerts a controlling influence on the availability and quality of vegetation and surface water for herbivores in African terrestrial ecosystems. We analyse temporal trends and variation in rainfall in the Maasai Mara ecosystem of East Africa and infer their implications for animal population and biodiversity dynamics. The data originated from 15 rain gauges in the Mara region (1965–2015) and one station in Narok Town (1913–2015), in Kenya’s Narok County. This is the first comprehensive and most detailed analysis of changes in rainfall in the region of its kind. Our results do not support the current predictions of the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) of very likely increases of rainfall over parts of Eastern Africa. The dry season rainfall component increased during 1935–2015 but annual rainfall decreased during 1962–2015 in Narok Town. Monthly rainfall was more stable and higher in the Mara than in Narok Town, likely because the Mara lies closer to the high-precipitation areas along the shores of Lake Victoria. Predominantly deterministic and persistent inter-annual cycles and extremely stable seasonal rainfall oscillations characterize rainfall in the Mara and Narok regions. The frequency of severe droughts increased and floods intensified in the Mara but droughts became less frequent and less severe in Narok Town. The timings of extreme droughts and floods coincided with significant periodicity in rainfall oscillations, implicating strong influences of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns on regional rainfall variability. These changing rainfall patterns have implications for animal population dynamics. The increase in dry season rainfall during 1935–2015 possibly counterbalanced the impacts of resource scarcity generated by the declining annual rainfall during 1965–2015 in Narok Town. However, the increasing rainfall extremes in the Mara can be expected to create conditions conducive to outbreaks of infectious animal diseases and reduced vegetation quality for herbivores, particularly when droughts and floods persist over multiple years. The more extreme wet season rainfall may also alter herbivore space use, including migration patterns.

Population Viability Analysis of the Endangered Roan Antelope in Ruma National Park, Kenya, and Implications for Management

Population viability analysis (PVA) was used to (1) establish causes of roan population decline for the past 30 years in Ruma National Park (RNP), the only park where wild roans remain in Kenya, and (2) predict the probability of roan persistence under existing and alternative management options. PVA was done using long-term data based on population dynamics, life history, climatic conditions, and expert knowledge. Poaching was identified as the main cause of roan decline in RNP. Several antipoaching and prioritized habitat management interventions to promote population recovery and sustainable conservation of roans are described. PVA predictions indicated that, without these interventions, the roan population cannot persist more than 3 decades. Furthermore, ensuring sustainable conservation of roans in RNP will boost tourism in Western Kenyan and thus alleviate poverty in this part of the country. Improved income from tourism will reduce the possible pressures from hunting and give greater incentives for local people to be actively engaged in roan conservation.

Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya's land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72-88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson's gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy's zebra and waterbuck in Kenya's rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011-2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977-1980. Most of Kenya's wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total "national" wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate wildlife conservation policy in Kenya. We suggest policy, institutional and management interventions likely to succeed in reducing the declines and restoring rangeland health, most notably through strengthening and investing in community and private wildlife conservancies in the rangelands.