Orthopedic workforce planning in Germany - an analysis of orthopedic accessibility

Quantifying spatial accessibility of general practitioners by applying a modified huff three-step floating catchment area (MH3SFCA) method

BACKGROUND

It is necessary to ensure sufficient healthcare. The use of current, precise and realistic methods to model spatial accessibility to healthcare and thus improved decision-making is helping this process. Generally, these methods-which include the family of floating catchment area (FCA) methods-incorporate a number of criteria that address topics like access, efficiency, budget, equity and the overall system utilization. How can we measure spatial accessibility? This paper investigates a sophisticated approach for quantifying the spatial accessibility of general practitioners. (GPs). Our objective is the investigation and application of a spatial accessibility index by an improved Huff three-step floating catchment area (MH3SFCA) method.

METHODS

We modify and implement the huff model three-step floating catchment area (MH3SFCA) method and exemplary calculation of the spatial accessibility indices for the test study area. The method is extended to incorporate a more realistic way to model the distance decay effect. To that end, instead of a binary approach, a continuous approach is employed. Therefore, each distance between a healthcare site and the population is incorporated individually. The study area includes Swabia and the city of Augsburg, Germany. The data for analysis is obtained from following data sources: (1) Acxiom Deutschland GmbH (2020) provided a test dataset for the locations of general practitioners (GPs); (2) OpenStreetMap (OSM) data is utilized for road networks; and (3) the Statistische Ämter des Bundes und der Länder (German official census 2011) provided a population distribution dataset stemming from the 2011 Census.

RESULTS

The spatial accessibility indices are distributed in an inhomogeneous as well as polycentric pattern for the general practitioners (GPs). Differences in spatial accessibility are found mainly between urban and rural areas. The transitions from lower to higher values of accessibility or vice versa in general are smooth rather than abrupt. The results indicate that the MH3SFCA method is suited for comparing the spatial accessibility of GPs in different regions. The results of the MH3SFCA method can be used to indicate over- and undersupplied areas. However, the absolute values of the indices do not inherently define accessibility to be too low or too high. Instead, the indices compare the spatial relationships between each supply and demand location. As a result, the higher the value of the accessibility indices, the higher the opportunities for the respective population locations. The result for the study area are exemplary as the test input data has a high uncertainty. Depending on the objective, it might be necessary to further analyze the results of the method.

CONCLUSIONS

The application of the MH3SFCA method on small-scale data can provide an overview of accessibility for the whole study area. As many factors have to be taken into account, the outcomes are too complex for a direct and clear interpretation of why indices are low or high. The MH3SFCA method can be used to detect differences in accessibility on a small scale. In order to effectively detect over- or undersupply, further analysis must be conducted and/or different (legal) constraints must be applied. The methodology requires input data of high quality.

Forecasting maldistribution of human resources for healthcare and patients in Japan: a utilization-based approach

BACKGROUND

Hokkaido's demographic trend of population decrease with aging population is remarkable even in Japan. Although healthcare policy decision-makers need to appropriately allocate resources while grasping regional demands, not much is available on whether medical demand would increase or not for future. In addition, little is known about what impact will current situation have on future demand-supply balance and equality by regions. This study aims to support decision-making in human resource planning for coping with changing population structure by forecasting future demand, and evaluation those regional maldistributions.

METHOD

We set patients with acute myocardial infarction or cerebral stroke, and all medical care as study subjects and analyzed for 2015, 2025, and 2035 in Hokkaido and each Secondary Medical Care Area. We used a utilization-based approach to estimate the healthcare supply-demand balance in the future. Moreover, we evaluated the regional maldistribution of demand-supply balance by calculating Herfindahl-Hirschman Index, Gini Coefficients, the number of physicians/specialists per patient. Moreover, we conducted sensitivity analysis to evaluation impact on aspects of demand-supply balance by uncertainty of utilization for future.

RESULTS

Our results displayed that concentration of patients will progress, while regional distribution will shrink in all subject. However, from comparison based on all medical care, Gini Coefficients of acute myocardial infarction and cerebral stroke has always been high. This suggest that the resource allocation of them has room for improvement. In addition, our analysis showed the change in this balance will differ in each region in the future. Moreover, demographic change will not consistent with the number of patient change from 2015 to 2035.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest policy planners should use the number of patient by disease, by region as indicator of demand, instead of provider-to-population ratios being in use today. The result of our sensitivity analysis show two findings. First, the range of each indicator have possible for future. Second, increase of utilization, for instance lowing barrier in the use by development operation of patient transportation in AMI/CS, would improve maldistribution of opportunity for resident to get emergency medical services.

Demand and level of service inflation in Floating Catchment Area (FCA) methods

Floating Catchment Area (FCA) methods are a popular tool to investigate accessibility to public facilities, in particular health care services. FCA approaches are attractive because, unlike other accessibility measures, they take into account the potential for congestion of facilities. This is done by 1) considering the population within the catchment area of a facility to calculate a variable that measures level of service, and then 2) aggregating the level of service by population centers subject to catchment area constraints. In this paper we discuss an effect of FCA approaches, an artifact that we term demand and level of service inflation. These artifacts are present in previous implementations of FCA methods. We argue that inflation makes interpretation of estimates of accessibility difficult, which has possible deleterious consequences for decision making. Next, we propose a simple and intuitive approach to proportionally allocate demandand and level of service in FCA calculations. The approach is based on a standardization of the impedance matrix, similar to approaches popular in the spatial statistics and econometrics literature. The result is a more intiuitive measure of accessibility that 1) provides a local version of the provider-to-population ratio; and 2) preserves the level of demand and the level of supply in a system. We illustrate the relevant issues with some examples, and then empirically by means of a case study of accessibility to family physicians in the Hamilton Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), in Ontario, Canada. Results indicate that demand and supply inflation/deflation affect the interpretation of accessibility analysis using existing FCA methods, and that the proposed adjustment can lead to more intuitive results.

[Indices of Multiple Deprivation for the analysis of regional health disparities in Germany : Experiences from epidemiology and healthcare research]

BACKGROUND

Deprivation indices allow material and social differences at the regional level to be described in a statistically efficient and concise manner and to use these in health analyses. Following the British example, Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMDs) are now available for Germany, the German Index of Multiple Deprivation (GIMD) as well as its regional versions. In this study, empirical experiences based on the use of these indices in health studies will be presented.

METHOD

The German IMDs consist of seven deprivation domains, which represent single aspects of deprivation (income, employment, and educational deprivation, municipal revenue deprivation, social capital deprivation, environment and security deprivation). Specific indicators were generated from data of official statistics and assigned to the deprivation domains. The weighted single domains were finally combined to an overall index. The German IMDs are available at a municipal level and at a district level.

RESULTS

Analyses using the IMDs showed significant associations between regional deprivation and mortality, morbidity and aspects of health services research. Multilevel analyses showed significant associations with regional deprivation, independent of individual factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The German IMDs are valid and efficient tools for the use in epidemiology and health services research, but also for health policy. When constructing deprivation indices, several methodological challenges have to be considered.