Spatial and temporal changes in leaf coloring date of Acer palmatum and Ginkgo biloba in response to temperature increases in South Korea

How did the characteristics of the growing season change during the past 100 years at a steep river basin in Japan?

The effects of climate change on plant phenological events such as flowering, leaf flush, and leaf fall may be greater in steep river basins than at the horizontal scale of countries and continents. This possibility is due to the effect of temperature on plant phenology and the difference between vertical and horizontal gradients in temperature sensitivities. We calculated the dates of the start (SGS) and end of the growing season (EGS) in a steep river basin located in a mountainous region of central Japan over a century timescale by using a degree-day phenological model based on long-term, continuous, in situ observations. We assessed the generality and representativeness of the modelled SGS and EGS dates by using phenological events, live camera images taken at multiple points in the basin, and satellite observations made at a fine spatial resolution. The sensitivity of the modelled SGS and EGS dates to elevation changed from 3.29 days (100 m)⁻¹ (−5.48 days °C⁻¹) and −2.89 days (100 m)⁻¹ (4.81 days °C⁻¹), respectively, in 1900 to 2.85 days (100 m)⁻¹ (−4.75 days °C⁻¹) and −2.84 day (100 m)⁻¹ (4.73 day °C⁻¹) in 2019. The long-term trend of the sensitivity of the modelled SGS date to elevation was −0.0037 day year⁻¹ per 100 m, but the analogous trend in the case of the modelled EGS date was not significant. Despite the need for further studies to improve the generality and representativeness of the model, the development of degree-day phenology models in multiple, steep river basins will deepen our ecological understanding of the sensitivity of plant phenology to climate change.

Peak autumn leaf colouring along latitudinal and elevational gradients in Japan evaluated with online phenological data

We evaluated the spatial characteristics of the first day of peak leaf colouring (PLC_start) and their relationships with air temperature along latitudinal and elevational gradients in Japan from 2015 to 2017. Leaf colouring information collected from more than 740 sites via citizen science was analysed, representing elevations from 0 to 2800 m and latitudes from 32°N to 44°N. We found that locations with earlier PLC_start dates (day of year 265-294) displayed steeper slopes in elevation per degree of latitude than locations with later PLC_start dates (day of year 295-314). This statistically significant result indicates that the influence of elevation on PLC_start (vertical gradient) weakened as the leaf colouring season progressed in Japan. In addition to these spatial characteristics, the PLC_start and the warmth index (based on monthly mean air temperature) showed significant linear correlations for latitudinal and elevational gradients. This result suggests that the sensitivity of PLC_start to air temperature, as manifested in both latitudinal and elevational gradients, is constant. This study suggests that online phenological data may provide more accurate results for a regional scale (100-1000 km) than the datasets used by previous studies.

Impact of urbanization on spring and autumn phenology of deciduous trees in the Seoul Capital Area, South Korea

Urbanization exerts anthropogenic forcing that affects regional climate and ecosystems. With increasing levels of urbanization associated with urban population growth in the near future, understanding of the impact of urbanization on terrestrial ecosystems is important for predicting future environmental changes. This study evaluates the impact of urbanization on spring and autumn phenology by addressing the relationship between population density and phenology at nine stations in the Seoul Capital Area (SCA), South Korea during 1991-2010. We analyze the spring budburst dates for the six species (Prunus mume, Forsythia koreana, Rhododendron mucronulatum, Prunus yedoensis, Prunus persica, and Prunus pyrifolia) and the leaf coloring date for the two species (Ginkgo biloba and Acer palmatum). Regardless of species, the density of the urban population shows significant negative (positive) relationships with spring (autumn) phenology. In the SCA, urban population increases are related to earlier spring budburst up to 13 days and delayed leaf coloring up to 15 days. The most apparent spring budburst sensitivity is observed in Prunus mume, whereas the most dominant autumn leaf coloring sensitivity is observed in Acer palmatum. The relationship between population density and phenology is supported by the difference in nocturnal temperatures between stations which varies with the population density. Our results suggest that, in addition to global warming, future population growth should be considered in ecosystem assessments of human-induced environmental changes.