Modeling spatial variation in risk of presence and insecticide resistance for malaria vectors in Laos

Fine-scale maps of malaria incidence to inform risk stratification in Laos

BACKGROUND

Malaria risk maps are crucial for controlling and eliminating malaria by identifying areas of varying transmission risk. In the Greater Mekong Subregion, these maps guide interventions and resource allocation. This article focuses on analysing changes in malaria transmission and developing fine-scale risk maps using five years of routine surveillance data in Laos (2017-2021). The study employed data from 1160 geolocated health facilities in Laos, along with high-resolution environmental data.

METHODS

A Bayesian geostatistical framework incorporating population data and treatment-seeking propensity was developed. The models incorporated static and dynamic factors and accounted for spatial heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Results showed a significant decline in malaria cases in Laos over the five-year period and a shift in transmission patterns. While the north became malaria-free, the south experienced ongoing transmission with sporadic outbreaks.

CONCLUSION

The risk maps provided insights into changing transmission patterns and supported risk stratification. These risk maps are valuable tools for malaria control in Laos, aiding resource allocation, identifying intervention gaps, and raising public awareness. The study enhances understanding of malaria transmission dynamics and facilitates evidence-based decision-making for targeted interventions in high-risk areas.

Estimation of standardized real-time fatality rate for ongoing epidemics

BACKGROUND

The fatality rate is a crucial metric for guiding public health policies during an ongoing epidemic. For COVID-19, the age structure of the confirmed cases changes over time, bringing a substantial impact on the real-time estimation of fatality. A 'spurious decrease' in fatality rate can be caused by a shift in confirmed cases towards younger ages even if the fatalities remain unchanged across different ages.

METHODS

To address this issue, we propose a standardized real-time fatality rate estimator. A simulation study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the estimator. The proposed method is applied for real-time fatality rate estimation of COVID-19 in Germany from March 2020 to May 2022.

FINDINGS

The simulation results suggest that the proposed estimator can provide an accurate trend of disease fatality in all cases, while the existing estimator may convey a misleading signal of the actual situation when the changes in temporal age distribution take place. The application to Germany data shows that there was an increment in the fatality rate at the implementation of the 'live with COVID' strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

As many countries have chosen to coexist with the coronavirus, frequent examination of the fatality rate is of paramount importance.

Spatio-temporal characterization of phenotypic resistance in malaria vector species

BACKGROUND

Malaria, a deadly disease caused by Plasmodium protozoa parasite and transmitted through bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes, remains a significant public health challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. Efforts to eliminate malaria have increasingly focused on vector control using insecticides. However, the emergence of insecticide resistance (IR) in malaria vectors pose a formidable obstacle, and the current IR mapping models remain static, relying on fixed coefficients. This study introduces a dynamic spatio-temporal approach to characterize phenotypic resistance in Anopheles gambiae complex and Anopheles arabiensis. We developed a cellular automata (CA) model and applied it to data collected from Ethiopia, Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Burkina Faso. The data encompasses georeferenced records detailing IR levels in mosquito vector populations across various classes of insecticides. In characterizing the dynamic patterns of confirmed resistance, we identified key driving factors through correlation analysis, chi-square tests, and extensive literature review.

RESULTS

The CA model demonstrated robustness in capturing the spatio-temporal dynamics of confirmed IR states in the vector populations. In our model, the key driving factors included insecticide usage, agricultural activities, human population density, Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) characteristics, and environmental variables.

CONCLUSIONS

The CA model developed offers a robust tool for countries that have limited data on confirmed IR in malaria vectors. The embrace of a dynamical modeling approach and accounting for evolving conditions and influences, contribute to deeper understanding of IR dynamics, and can inform effective strategies for malaria vector control, and prevention in regions facing this critical health challenge.

Insights and challenges of insecticide resistance modelling in malaria vectors: a review

BACKGROUND

Malaria is one of the most devastating tropical diseases, resulting in loss of lives each year, especially in children under the age of 5 years. Malaria burden, related deaths and stall in the progress against malaria transmission is evident, particularly in countries that have moderate or high malaria transmission. Hence, mitigating malaria spread requires information on the distribution of vectors and the drivers of insecticide resistance (IR). However, owing to the impracticality in establishing the critical need for real-world information at every location, modelling provides an informed best guess for such information. Therefore, this review examines the various methodologies used to model spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal patterns of IR within populations of malaria vectors, incorporating pest-biology parameters, adopted ecological principles, and the associated modelling challenges.

METHODS

The review focused on the period ending March 2023 without imposing restrictions on the initial year of publication, and included articles sourced from PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. It was also limited to publications that deal with modelling of IR distribution across spatial and temporal dimensions and excluded articles solely focusing on insecticide susceptibility tests or articles not published in English. After rigorous selection, 33 articles met the review's elibility criteria and were subjected to full-text screening.

RESULTS

Results show the popularity of Bayesian geostatistical approaches, and logistic and static models, with limited adoption of dynamic modelling approaches for spatial and temporal IR modelling. Furthermore, our review identifies the availability of surveillance data and scarcity of comprehensive information on the potential drivers of IR as major impediments to developing holistic models of IR evolution.

CONCLUSIONS

The review notes that incorporating pest-biology parameters, and ecological principles into IR models, in tandem with fundamental ecological concepts, potentially offers crucial insights into the evolution of IR. The results extend our knowledge of IR models that provide potentially accurate results, which can be translated into policy recommendations to combat the challenge of IR in malaria control.

Mutations Linked to Insecticide Resistance Not Detected in the Ace-1 or VGSC Genes in Nyssorhynchus darlingi from Multiple Localities in Amazonian Brazil and Peru

Indoor residual spray (IRS), mainly employing pyrethroid insecticides, is the most common intervention for preventing malaria transmission in many regions of Latin America; the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) has been more limited. Knockdown resistance (kdr) is a well-characterized target-site resistance mechanism associated with pyrethroid and DDT resistance. Most mutations detected in acetylcholinesterase-1 (Ace-1) and voltage-gated sodium channel (VGSC) genes are non-synonymous, resulting in a change in amino acid, leading to the non-binding of the insecticide. In the present study, we analyzed target-site resistance in Nyssorhynchus darlingi, the primary malaria vector in the Amazon, in multiple malaria endemic localities. We screened 988 wild-caught specimens of Ny. darlingi from three localities in Amazonian Peru and four in Amazonian Brazil. Collections were conducted between 2014 and 2021. The criteria were Amazonian localities with a recent history as malaria hotspots, primary transmission by Ny. darlingi, and the use of both IRS and LLINs as interventions. Fragments of Ace-1 (456 bp) and VGSC (228 bp) were amplified, sequenced, and aligned with Ny. darlingi sequences available in GenBank. We detected only synonymous mutations in the frequently reported Ace-1 codon 280 known to confer resistance to organophosphates and carbamates, but detected three non-synonymous mutations in other regions of the gene. Similarly, no mutations linked to insecticide resistance were detected in the frequently reported codon (995) at the S6 segment of domain II of VGSC. The lack of genotypic detection of insecticide resistance mutations by sequencing the Ace-1 and VGSC genes from multiple Ny. darlingi populations in Brazil and Peru could be associated with low-intensity resistance, or possibly the main resistance mechanism is metabolic.

Trends in mosquito species distribution modeling: insights for vector surveillance and disease control

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has become an increasingly common approach to explore questions about ecology, geography, outbreak risk, and global change as they relate to infectious disease vectors. Here, we conducted a systematic review of the scientific literature, screening 563 abstracts and identifying 204 studies that used SDMs to produce distribution estimates for mosquito species. While the number of studies employing SDM methods has increased markedly over the past decade, the overwhelming majority used a single method (maximum entropy modeling; MaxEnt) and focused on human infectious disease vectors or their close relatives. The majority of regional models were developed for areas in Africa and Asia, while more localized modeling efforts were most common for North America and Europe. Findings from this study highlight gaps in taxonomic, geographic, and methodological foci of current SDM literature for mosquitoes that can guide future efforts to study the geography of mosquito-borne disease risk.

Population genetic structure and evolutionary genetics of Anopheles sinensis based on knockdown resistance (kdr) mutations and mtDNA-COII gene in China-Laos, Thailand-Laos, and Cambodia-Laos borders

BACKGROUND

Vector control is still a pivotal method for preventing malaria, and its potency is weakened by the increasing resistance of vectors to chemical insecticides. As the most abundant and vital malaria vector in Southeast Asia, the chemical insecticide resistance status in Anopheles sinensis remains elusive in Laos, which makes it imperative to evaluate the true nature of chemical insecticide resistance-associated genetic mutations in An. sinensis in Laos.

METHODS

Adult An. sinensis were collected from three border regions in Laos. DNA was extracted from individual mosquitoes. PCR amplification and DNA sequencing of a fragment containing codon 1014 of the voltage-gated sodium channel (vgsc) gene were completed to study the kdr allele frequency distribution, kdr intron polymorphism, population genetic diversity, and the evolutionary status of the kdr codon. The mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit II gene (COII) was amplified and sequenced to examine population variations, genetic differentiation, spatial population structure, population expansion, and gene flow patterns.

RESULTS

Nine wild kdr haplotypes of the vgsc gene were detected in this study, and eight of them, namely 1014L1, 1014L2, 1014L4, 1014L7, 1014L9, 1014L10, 1014L11, and 1014L21, were discovered in the China-Laos border (northern Laos), while 1014L3 was only detected in the Thailand-Laos border (northwestern Laos) and Cambodia-Laos border (southern Laos). The newly identified haplotype, 1014L21, was uniquely distributed in the China-Laos border and was not identified in other countries. Based on sequence analysis of the mitochondrial COII genes, significant genetic differentiation and limited gene flow were detected between the China-Laos and Cambodia-Laos An. sinensis populations, which suggested that those two regions were genetically isolated. The distinct distribution of the kdr haplotype frequencies is probably the result of geographical isolation in mosquito populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of kdr mutations in the vgsc gene was probably due to genetic isolation and the absence of intense selection pressure in the three border regions of Laos. This study reveals that pyrethroid-based chemical insecticides are still appropriate for battling An. sinensis in parts of Laos, and routine monitoring of chemical insecticide resistance should be continuously implemented and focused on more restricted areas as part of chemical insecticide resistance management.

Morphological and molecular identification reveals a high diversity of Anopheles species in the forest region of the Cambodia-Laos border

Background

To develop an effective malaria vector intervention method in forested international border regions within the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), more in-depth studies should be conducted on local Anopheles species composition and bionomic features. There is a paucity of comprehensive surveys of biodiversity integrating morphological and molecular species identification conducted within the border of Laos and Cambodia.

Methods

A total of 2394 adult mosquitoes were trapped in the Cambodia–Laos border region. We first performed morphological identification of Anopheles mosquitoes and subsequently performed molecular identification using 412 recombinant DNA–internal transcribed spacer 2 (rDNA-ITS2) and 391 mitochondrial DNA–cytochrome c oxidase subunit 2 (mtDNA-COII) sequences. The molecular and morphological identification results were compared, and phylogenetic analysis of rDNA-ITS2 and mtDNA-COII was conducted for the sequence divergence among species.

Results

Thirteen distinct species of Anopheles were molecularly identified in a 26,415 km² border region in Siem Pang (Cambodia) and Pathoomphone (Laos). According to the comparisons of morphological and molecular identity, the interpretation of local species composition for dominant species in the Cambodia–Laos border (An. dirus, An. maculatus, An. philippinensis, An. kochi and An. sinensis) achieved the highest accuracy of morphological identification, from 98.37 to 100%. In contrast, the other species which were molecularly identified were less frequently identified correctly (0–58.3%) by morphological methods. The average rDNA-ITS2 and mtDNA-COII interspecific divergence was respectively 318 times and 15 times higher than their average intraspecific divergence. The barcoding gap ranged from 0.042 to 0.193 for rDNA-ITS2, and from 0.033 to 0.047 for mtDNA-COII.

Conclusions

The Cambodia–Laos border hosts a high diversity of Anopheles species. The morphological identification of Anopheles species provides higher accuracy for dominant species than for other species. Molecular methods combined with morphological analysis to determine species composition, population dynamics and bionomic characteristics can facilitate a better understanding of the factors driving malaria transmission and the effects of interventions, and can aid in achieving the goal of eliminating malaria.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05167-0.

Influence of a Major Mountainous Landscape Barrier (Mount Cameroon) on the Spread of Metabolic (GSTe2) and Target-Site (Rdl) Resistance Alleles in the African Malaria Vector Anopheles funestus

Increased levels of insecticide resistance in major malaria vectors such as Anopheles funestus threaten the effectiveness of insecticide-based control programmes. Understanding the landscape features impacting the spread of resistance makers is necessary to design suitable resistance management strategies. Here, we examined the influence of the highest mountain in West Africa (Mount Cameroon; 4095 m elevation) on the spread of metabolic and target-site resistance alleles in An. funestus populations. Vector composition varied across the four localities surveyed along the altitudinal cline with major vectors exhibiting high parity rate (80.5%). Plasmodium infection rates ranged from 0.79% (An. melas) to 4.67% (An. funestus). High frequencies of GSTe2^R (67–81%) and Rdl^R (49–90%) resistance alleles were observed in An. funestus throughout the study area, with GSTe2^R frequency increasing with altitude, whereas the opposite is observed for Rdl^R. Patterns of genetic diversity and population structure analyses revealed high levels of polymorphisms with 12 and 16 haplotypes respectively for GSTe2 and Rdl. However, the reduced diversity patterns of resistance allele carriers revealed signatures of positive selection on the two genes across the study area irrespective of the altitude. Despite slight variations associated with the altitude, the spread of resistance alleles suggest that control strategies could be implemented against malaria vectors across mountainous landscapes.

New insights into malaria vector bionomics in Lao PDR: a nationwide entomology survey

BACKGROUND

In Laos, the malaria burden remains high despite a significant reduction of cases during the last decade. In the context of the disease elimination by 2030, a nationwide entomological survey was conducted to better understand the distribution, abundance and behaviour of major malaria vectors (Anopheles spp.) in the country.

METHODS

Mosquito collections were implemented in ten villages from ten provinces during the rainy and dry seasons of 2014 and 2015 by using human landing catch (HLC) and cow bait collection (CBC) methods. After morphological identification in the field, molecular identification of the sibling species of Anopheles mosquitoes from the Funestus, Leucosphyrus, and Maculatus groups were determined using PCR specific alleles. A screening of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections in the vectors was carried out by quantitative PCR assays.

RESULTS

A total of 14,146 adult mosquitoes representing 25 different Anopheles species were collected and morphologically identified. Molecular identification revealed the presence of 12 sibling species within the main primary vector groups, including Anopheles maculatus, Anopheles rampae, Anopheles sawadwongporni, Anopheles pseudowillmori, Anopheles dravidicus, Anopheles minimus, Anopheles aconitus, Anopheles pampanai, Anopheles harrisoni, Anopheles dirus, Anopheles baimaii, Anopheles nemophilous. Anopheles maculatus and An. minimus were predominant during both the dry and rainy seasons, but showed highly zoophilic preferences (Zoophilic index of 98% and 95%, respectively). Overall, 22% of the total malaria vectors were collected between 10:00 PM and 5:00 AM indoors when people are sleeping. Twenty-seven percent of primary and secondary vectors were collected outdoors before 10:00 PM or after 5:00 AM, times when people are usually awake and outdoors. Only two specimens were positive for P. falciparum, one An. aconitus from Phongsaly and one An. minimus from Vientiane Province CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that people living in rural areas in Laos are constantly exposed to malaria vectors throughout the year and specifically outdoors. The use of LLINs/IRS remains important but innovative tools and new strategies are needed to address locally, the early and outdoor malaria transmission. Lack of expertise in general entomological methods may further exacerbate the situation.

Vector genetics, insecticide resistance and gene drives: An agent-based modeling approach to evaluate malaria transmission and elimination

Vector control has been a key component in the fight against malaria for decades, and chemical insecticides are critical to the success of vector control programs worldwide. However, increasing resistance to insecticides threatens to undermine these efforts. Understanding the evolution and propagation of resistance is thus imperative to mitigating loss of intervention effectiveness. Additionally, accelerated research and development of new tools that can be deployed alongside existing vector control strategies is key to eradicating malaria in the near future. Methods such as gene drives that aim to genetically modify large mosquito populations in the wild to either render them refractory to malaria or impair their reproduction may prove invaluable tools. Mathematical models of gene flow in populations, which is the transfer of genetic information from one population to another through migration, can offer invaluable insight into the behavior and potential impact of gene drives as well as the spread of insecticide resistance in the wild. Here, we present the first multi-locus, agent-based model of vector genetics that accounts for mutations and a many-to-many mapping cardinality of genotypes to phenotypes to investigate gene flow, and the propagation of gene drives in Anopheline populations. This model is embedded within a large scale individual-based model of malaria transmission representative of a high burden, high transmission setting characteristic of the Sahel. Results are presented for the selection of insecticide-resistant vectors and the spread of resistance through repeated deployment of insecticide treated nets (ITNs), in addition to scenarios where gene drives act in concert with existing vector control tools such as ITNs. The roles of seasonality, spatial distribution of vector habitat and feed sites, and existing vector control in propagating alleles that confer phenotypic traits via gene drives that result in reduced transmission are explored. The ability to model a spectrum of vector species with different genotypes and phenotypes in the context of malaria transmission allows us to test deployment strategies for existing interventions that reduce the deleterious effects of resistance and allows exploration of the impact of new tools being proposed or developed.

Malaria and Dengue Mosquito Vectors from Lao PDR Show a Lack of the rdl Mutant Allele Responsible for Cyclodiene Insecticide Resistance

The gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) receptor, RDL, plays important roles in neuronal signaling and is the target of highly effective insecticides. A mutation in RDL, commonly A296S, underlies resistance to several insecticides such as cyclodienes. Even though the use of cyclodienes has been banned, the occurrence of mutations substituting A296 is notably high in mosquitoes from several countries. Here, we report a survey investigating the prevalence of the Rdl mutant allele in mosquitoes from Laos, a country where mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are health concerns. Anopheles and Aedes mosquitoes were collected from 12 provinces in Laos. Adult bioassays on Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) (Diptera: Culicidae) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) showed that all the populations tested were susceptible to dieldrin (4%) following WHO protocols. Exon 7 from a total of 791 mosquitoes was sequenced to identify the amino acid encoded for at 296 of RDL. Only one of these mosquitoes, Anopheles maculatus rampae Harbach and Somboon (Diptera: Culicidae) from Attapeu, carried the mutant allele being heterozygous for A296S. We therefore found a general lack of the Rdl mutant allele indicating that mosquitoes from Laos are not exposed to insecticides that act on the GABA receptor compared to mosquitoes in several other countries. Identifying the prevalence of the Rdl mutation may help inform the potential use of alternative insecticides that act on the GABA receptor should there be a need to replace pyrethroids in order to prevent/manage resistance.

Survey of asymptomatic malaria and mosquito vectors in Muang Khua District of Phongsaly Province, China-Laos Border

OBJECTIVES

The China-Laos border has been identified as an important origin of imported malaria outside China. The aim of this study was to describe the asymptomatic malaria infections and epidemic trend of malaria in the China-Laos border region.

METHODS

A prevalence survey and surveillance of mosquito vectors was conducted in Muang Khua District of Phongsaly Province, China-Laos border, to determine the parasite carriage rate using nested PCR and microscopy. The species composition of malaria vectors was determined by overnight trapping. Blood samples were collected from 354 local residents aged 1-72 years in Sankang village in 2016. A total of 2430 adult mosquitoes were collected from four other villages in Muang Khua District from June to August 2016.

RESULTS

The parasite carriage rate was 7.63% (27/354) by microscopy or 7.91% (28/354) by nested PCR. The results of surveillance of the mosquito vectors revealed that the predominant genera of adult mosquitoes were Culex (69.92%, 1699/2430) and Anopheles (21.48%, 522/2430). Anopheles sinensis (82.95%, 433/522) was identified as the predominant species among the seven members of Anopheles found in this border region.

CONCLUSIONS

A high prevalence of asymptomatic malaria was present and the most important malaria vector was Anopheles sinensis, suggesting that the malaria epidemic situation on the China-Laos border is serious.