Will higher traffic flow lead to more traffic conflicts? A crash surrogate metric based analysis

Exploring driving behavioral characteristics in pre-, in-, and post-conflict stages based on car-following trajectory data

This study investigates driving behaviour in different stages of rear-end conflicts using vehicle trajectory data. Three conflict stages (pre-, in-, and post-conflict) are defined based on time-to-collision (TTC) indicator. Four indexes are selected to capture within-group and between-group characteristics of the stages. Besides, this study also examines the prediction performance of conflict stage identification using specific driving behaviour characteristics associated with each stage. Results reveal variations in dominant driving characteristics and predictive importance across stages. Heterogeneity exists within stages, with differences among clusters. Drivers slow down during in-conflict, with decreasing speed reduction as stages progress. Reaction time increases in post-conflict. Insufficient space gaps contribute to rear-end conflicts in the in-conflict stage. Furthermore, the prediction performance of conflict stage identification, based on the specific driving behaviour characteristics associated with each stage, is commendable. This study enhances understanding and prediction of conflict stage identification in rear-end conflicts.Practitioner summary: This study explores driving behaviour in rear-end conflict stages using trajectory data. It identifies pre-, in-, and post-conflict stages via time-to-collision indicator and assesses within-group and between-group characteristics. Besides, prediction performance for conflict stage identification based on these characteristics is commendable. This research enhances understanding and prediction of rear-end conflicts.

Insights into vehicle conflicts based on traffic flow dynamics

The utilization of traffic conflict indicators is crucial for assessing traffic safety, especially when the crash data is unavailable. To identify traffic conflicts based on traffic flow characteristics across various traffic states, we propose a framework that utilizes unsupervised learning to automatically establish surrogate safety measures (SSM) thresholds. Different traffic states and corresponding transitions are identified with the three-phase traffic theory using high-resolution trajectory data. Meanwhile, the SSMs are mapped to the corresponding traffic states from the perspectives of time, space, and deceleration. Three models, including k-means, GMM, and Mclust, are investigated and compared to optimize the identification of traffic conflicts. It is observed that Mclust outperforms the others based on the evaluation metrics. According to the results, there is a variation in the distribution of traffic conflicts among different traffic states, wide moving jam (phase J) has the highest conflict risk, followed by synchronous flow (phase S), and free flow (phase F). Meanwhile, the thresholds of traffic conflicts cannot be fully represented by the same value through different traffic states. It reveals that the heterogeneity of thresholds is exhibited across traffic state transitions, which justifies the necessity of dynamic thresholds for traffic conflict analysis.

Traffic conflict assessment using macroscopic traffic flow variables: A novel framework for real-time applications

The present study develops a comprehensive traffic conflict assessment framework using macroscopic traffic state variables. To this end, vehicular trajectories extracted for a midblock section of a ten-lane divided Western Urban Expressway in India are used. A macroscopic indicator termed "time spent in conflict (TSC)" is adopted to evaluate traffic conflicts. The proportion of Stopping distance (PSD) is adopted as a suitable traffic conflict indicator. Vehicle-to-vehicle interactions in a traffic stream are two-dimensional, highlighting that the vehicles interact simultaneously in lateral and longitudinal dimensions. Therefore, a two-dimensional framework based on the influence zone of the subject vehicle is proposed and employed to evaluate TSCs. The TSCs are modeled as a function of macroscopic traffic flow variables, namely, traffic density, speed, the standard deviation in speed, and traffic composition, under a two-step modeling framework. In the first step, the TSCs are modeled using a grouped random parameter Tobit (GRP-Tobit) model. In the second step, data-driven machine learning models are employed to model TSCs. The results revealed that intermediately congested traffic flow conditions are critical for traffic safety. Furthermore, macroscopic traffic variables positively influence the value of TSC, highlighting that the TSC increases with an increase in the value of any independent variable. Among different machine learning models, the random forest (RF) model was observed as the best-fitted model to predict TSC based on macroscopic traffic variables. The developed machine learning model facilitates traffic safety monitoring in real-time.

Using empirical traffic trajectory data for crash risk evaluation under three-phase traffic theory framework

This study employed surrogate safety measures to evaluate the crash risks in different traffic phases and phase transitions according to the three-phase theory. The analysis was conducted from a microscopic perspective based on empirical vehicle trajectory data collected from the Interstate 80 in California, USA, and the Yingtian Expressway in Nanjing, China. Traffic phases were identified based on traffic flow variables and their correlations. Two advanced crash risk indexes from vehicle trajectories were conducted to evaluate the safety performance in each traffic state. The effects of various traffic flow variables (i.e. flow rate, density, average speed) on crash risks were explored based on speed-density plane, speed-flow plane and flow-density plane. Three regression models were developed to quantify the effects of traffic flow variables and traffic states on crash risks. The results show significant disparities of safety performance among different traffic states. Synchronized flow and wide moving jam are found to be the most dangerous phases. High density and low speed are associated with high crash risk. The best crash risk prediction performance is achieved when integrating both traffic phases and traffic parameters.

A review of naturalistic driving study surrogates and surrogate indicator viability within the context of different road geometries

Advancements in data collection and processing methods have produced large databases containing high quality vehicular data. Despite this, conventional vehicle-vehicle collisions remain difficult to identify due to their rarity. Therefore, there is a need to identify potential collisions given the introduction of these new data collection methods. Surrogate indicators are a popular methods utilised to identify such events, however, the type of surrogate that can be used depends heavily on the type of data collection method. Though most surrogate indicators are used at different road geometries, there is evidence to suggest that some surrogate indicators may perform better than others at a given geometry. This review provides two key contributions to the body of literature. Firstly, a review of kinematic surrogates is put forward, along with a discussion on the whether these surrogates can be contextualised at different road geometries. Secondly, an extensive analysis and discussion of observer-based and video processed surrogate indicators, the collision types they aim to identify and the geometries they have been used at previously were analysed and advantages and disadvantages of the surrogates have been presented for future use. To do this, intersections, highways and roundabouts were selected and divided into geometry subtypes (i.e. three-legged and four-legged intersection) and segments (i.e. approaches to intersections and internal to the intersection) based on the likelihood of crash types and pre-crash manoeuvres occurring in that segment. Due to the lack of research around the use of kinematic triggers at road geometries, it is difficult to advocate for the use of any given trigger over another at a given geometry. Furthermore, it was found that kinematic triggers cannot accurately identify conflicts from naturalistic driving data and require the use of advanced statistical techniques such as machine learning to increase accuracy. A brief analysis of threshold identification techniques was also performed. Several future works have been put forward including the introduction of surrogates which capture conflict severity and the role of surrogate indicators in connected and automated vehicle environments.