Climatic niche of Selinum alatum (Apiaceae, Selineae), a new invasive plant species in Central Europe and its alterations according to the climate change scenarios: Are the European mountains threatened by invasion?

Predictive modelling of the distribution of Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. under climate change reveals a range expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum

Background

The knowledge of distributional dynamics of living organisms is a prerequisite for protecting biodiversity and for the sustainable use of biotic resources. Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. is a small group of shrubby, yellow-flowered species distributed mainly in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Plants in this section are both horticulturally and ecologically important.

Methods

Using past, present, and future environmental variables and data with Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modeling, we evaluated the importance of the environmental variables on the section's estimated distributions, thus simulating its distributional dynamics over time. The contractions and expansions of suitable habitat between the past and future scenarios and the present were then compared.

Results and Discussion

The models revealed that the areas with high and moderate suitability currently encompass about 725,110 km². The distribution centroid location varies between points in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia during the different scenarios. Elevation, Mean UV-B of Lowest Month, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter were major factors determining the section's distribution. Our modeling indicated that Clematis sect. Fruticella underwent a significant range contraction during the last interglacial period, and then expanded during the last glacial maximum (LGM) to amounts like those of the present. Cold, dry, and relatively stable climate, as well as steppe or desert steppe environments may have facilitated range expansion of this cold-adapted, drought-resistant plant taxon during the LGM. Predicted future scenarios show little change in the amounts of suitable habitat for Clematis sect. Fruticella. This study aids understanding of the distributional dynamics of Clematis sect. Fruticella, and the results will help the conservation and sustainable use of these important woody plants in Chinese arid and semiarid areas.

Changes in mountain vascular plants of the ‘Jar rzeki Raduni’ nature reserve (Poland) within the last 50 years

‘Jar rzeki Raduni’ is a landscape nature reserve created in 1972, which covers an area of 74,26 ha. The reserve protects the Radunia river gorge in the moraine upland of the Kashubian Lake District. In past, the reserve was an object of numerous botanical studies, and it was distinguished by a large share of mountain species. The main aim of this research was to define the current state of mountain species of the studied area compared to historical data. The study was carried out in 2017. Eight mountain species were noted: Aconitum variegatum, Alnus incana, Bupleurum longifolium, Chaerophyllum hirsutum, Dryopteris expansa, Huperzia selago, Pleurospermum austriacum and Ribes alpinum. The occurrence of five species was not confirmed: Coeloglossum viride, Epipogium aphyllum, Melampyrum sylvaticum, Polygonatum verticillatum and Valeriana sambucifolia.

Climatic niche shift and possible future spread of the invasive South African Orchid Disa bracteata in Australia and adjacent areas

Orchids are generally regarded as plants with an insignificant invasive potential and so far only one species has proved to be harmful for native flora. However, previous studies on Epipactis helleborine and Arundina graminifolia indicate that the ecological aspects of range extension in their non-native geographical range are not the same for all species of orchids. Disa bracteata in its native range, South Africa, is categorized as of little concern in terms of conservation whereas in Australia it is naturalized and considered to be an environmental weed. The aim of this research was to determine the ecological preferences enabling the spread of Disa bracteata in Western and South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania and to evaluate the effect of future climate change on its potential range. The ecological niche modeling approach indicates that most of the accessible areas are already occupied by this species but future expansion will continue based on four climate change scenarios (rcp26, rcp45, rcp60, rcp85). Further expansion is predicted especially in eastern Australia and eastern Tasmania. Moreover, there are some unpopulated but suitable habitats in New Zealand, which according to climate change scenarios will become even more suitable in the future. The most striking result of this study is the significant difference between the environmental conditions recorded in the areas which D. bracteata naturally inhabits and invasive sites-that indicates a possible niche shift. In Australia the studied species continues to populate a new niche or exploit habitats that are only moderately represented in South Africa.