Emergence of encounter networks due to human mobility

Temporal visitation patterns of points of interest in cities on a planetary scale: a network science and machine learning approach

We aim to study the temporal patterns of activity in points of interest of cities around the world. In order to do so, we use the data provided by the online location-based social network Foursquare, where users make check-ins that indicate points of interest in the city. The data set comprises more than 90 million check-ins in 632 cities of 87 countries in 5 continents. We analyzed more than 11 million points of interest including all sorts of places: airports, restaurants, parks, hospitals, and many others. With this information, we obtained spatial and temporal patterns of activities for each city. We quantify similarities and differences of these patterns for all the cities involved and construct a network connecting pairs of cities. The links of this network indicate the similarity of temporal visitation patterns of points of interest between cities and is quantified with the Kullback-Leibler divergence between two distributions. Then, we obtained the community structure of this network and the geographic distribution of these communities worldwide. For comparison, we also use a Machine Learning algorithm-unsupervised agglomerative clustering-to obtain clusters or communities of cities with similar patterns. The main result is that both approaches give the same classification of five communities belonging to five different continents worldwide. This suggests that temporal patterns of activity can be universal, with some geographical, historical, and cultural variations, on a planetary scale.

Random walks on complex networks under time-dependent stochastic resetting

We study discrete-time random walks on networks subject to a time-dependent stochastic resetting, where the walker either hops randomly between neighboring nodes with a probability 1-ϕ(a) or is reset to a given node with a complementary probability ϕ(a). The resetting probability ϕ(a) depends on the time a since the last reset event (also called a, the age of the walker). Using the renewal approach and spectral decomposition of the transition matrix, we formulate the stationary occupation probability of the walker at each node and the mean first passage time between two arbitrary nodes. Concretely, we consider two different time-dependent resetting protocols that are both exactly solvable. One is that ϕ(a) is a step-shaped function of a and the other one is that ϕ(a) is a rational function of a. We demonstrate the theoretical results on several different networks, also validated by numerical simulations, and find that the time-modulated resetting protocols can be more advantageous than the constant-probability resetting in accelerating the completion of a target search process.

Optimal exploration of random walks with local bias on networks

We propose local-biased random walks on general networks where a Markovian walker is defined by different types of biases in each node to establish transitions to its neighbors depending on their degrees. For this ergodic dynamics, we explore the capacity of the random walker to visit all the nodes characterized by a global mean first passage time. This quantity is calculated using eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the transition matrix that defines the dynamics. In the first part, we illustrate how our framework leads to optimal exploration for small-size graphs through the analysis of all the possible bias configurations. In the second part, we study the most favorable configurations in each node by using simulated annealing. This heuristic algorithm allows obtaining approximate solutions of the optimal bias in different types of networks. The results show how the local bias can optimize the exploration of the network in comparison with the unbiased random walk. The methods implemented in this research are general and open the doors to a broad spectrum of tools applicable to different random walk strategies and dynamical processes on networks.

Simple model of epidemic dynamics with memory effects

We introduce a compartment model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states S=susceptible, I=infected, or R=recovered (SIR model). In state R an individual is assumed to stay immune within a finite-time interval. In the first part, we introduce a random lifetime or duration of immunity which is drawn from a certain probability density function. Once the time of immunity is elapsed an individual makes an instantaneous transition to the susceptible state. By introducing a random duration of immunity a memory effect is introduced into the process which crucially determines the epidemic dynamics. In the second part, we investigate the influence of the memory effect on the space-time dynamics of the epidemic spreading by implementing this approach into computer simulations and employ a multiple random walker's model. If a susceptible walker meets an infectious one on the same site, then the susceptible one gets infected with a certain probability. The computer experiments allow us to identify relevant parameters for spread or extinction of an epidemic. In both parts, the finite duration of immunity causes persistent oscillations in the number of infected individuals with ongoing epidemic activity preventing the system from relaxation to a steady state solution. Such oscillatory behavior is supported by real-life observations and not captured by the classical standard SIR model.

Activity of vehicles in the bus rapid transit system Metrobús in Mexico City

In this paper, we analyze a massive dataset with registers of the movement of vehicles in the bus rapid transit system Metrobús in Mexico City from February 2020 to April 2021. With these records and a division of the system into 214 geographical regions (segments), we characterize the vehicles' activity through the statistical analysis of speeds in each zone. We use the Kullback-Leibler distance to compare the movement of vehicles in each segment and its evolution. The results for the dynamics in different zones are represented as a network where nodes define segments of the system Metrobús and edges describe similarity in the activity of vehicles. Community detection algorithms in this network allow the identification of patterns considering different levels of similarity in the distribution of speeds providing a framework for unsupervised classification of the movement of vehicles. The methods developed in this research are general and can be implemented to describe the activity of different transportation systems with detailed records of the movement of users or vehicles.

Understanding collective regularity in human mobility as a familiar stranger phenomenon

Beyond the physical structures that contain daily routines, urban city dwellers repeatedly encounter strangers that similarly shape their environments. Familiar strangers are neither formal acquaintances nor completely anonymous faces in daily urban life. Due to data limitations, there is a lack of research focused on uncovering the structure of the “Familiar Stranger” phenomenon at a large scale while simultaneously investigating the social relationships between such strangers. Using countrywide mobile phone records from Andorra, we empirically show the existence of such a phenomenon as well as details concerning these strangers’ relative social relations. To understand the social and spatial components of familiar strangers more deeply, we study the temporal regularity and spatial structure of collective urban mobility to shed light on the mechanisms that guide these interactions. Furthermore, we explore the relationship between social distances and the number of encounters to show that more significant physical encounters correspond to a shorter social distance. Understanding these social and physical networks has essential implications for epidemics spreading, urban planning, and information diffusion.

Random walks on complex networks with multiple resetting nodes: A renewal approach

Due to wide applications in diverse fields, random walks subject to stochastic resetting have attracted considerable attention in the last decade. In this paper, we study discrete-time random walks on complex networks with multiple resetting nodes. Using a renewal approach, we derive exact expressions of the occupation probability of the walker in each node and mean first-passage time between arbitrary two nodes. All the results can be expressed in terms of the spectral properties of the transition matrix in the absence of resetting. We demonstrate our results on circular networks, stochastic block models, and Barabási-Albert scale-free networks and find the advantage of the resetting processes to multiple resetting nodes in a global search on such networks. Finally, the distribution of resetting probabilities is optimized via a simulated annealing algorithm, so as to minimize the mean first-passage time averaged over arbitrary two distinct nodes.

Random walks on complex networks with first-passage resetting

We study discrete-time random walks on arbitrary networks with first-passage resetting processes. To the end, a set of nodes are chosen as observable nodes, and the walker is reset instantaneously to a given resetting node whenever it hits either of observable nodes. We derive exact expressions of the stationary occupation probability, the average number of resets in the long time, and the mean first-passage time between arbitrary two nonobservable nodes. We show that all the quantities can be expressed in terms of the fundamental matrix Z=(I-Q)^{-1}, where I is the identity matrix and Q is the transition matrix between nonobservable nodes. Finally, we use ring networks, two-dimensional square lattices, barbell networks, and Cayley trees to demonstrate the advantage of first-passage resetting in global search on such networks.

Diffusive transport on networks with stochastic resetting to multiple nodes

We study the diffusive transport of Markovian random walks on arbitrary networks with stochastic resetting to multiple nodes. We deduce analytical expressions for the stationary occupation probability and for the mean and global first passage times. This general approach allows us to characterize the effect of resetting on the capacity of random walk strategies to reach a particular target or to explore the network. Our formalism holds for ergodic random walks and can be implemented from the spectral properties of the random walk without resetting, providing a tool to analyze the efficiency of search strategies with resetting to multiple nodes. We apply the methods developed here to the dynamics with two reset nodes and derive analytical results for normal random walks and Lévy flights on rings. We also explore the effect of resetting to multiple nodes on a comb graph, Lévy flights that visit specific locations in a continuous space, and the Google random walk strategy on regular networks.

Mean encounter times for multiple random walkers on networks

We introduce a general approach for the study of the collective dynamics of noninteracting random walkers on connected networks. We analyze the movement of R independent (Markovian) walkers, each defined by its own transition matrix. By using the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the R independent transition matrices, we deduce analytical expressions for the collective stationary distribution and the average number of steps needed by the random walkers to start in a particular configuration and reach specific nodes the first time (mean first-passage times), as well as global times that characterize the global activity. We apply these results to the study of mean first-encounter times for local and nonlocal random walk strategies on different types of networks, with both synchronous and asynchronous motion.

Modeling adaptive reversible lanes: A cellular automata approach

Dealing with traffic congestion is one of the most pressing challenges for cities. Transport authorities have implemented several strategies to reduce traffic jams with varying degrees of success. The use of reversible lanes is a common approach to improve traffic congestion during rush hours. A reversible lane can change its direction during a time interval to the more congested direction. This strategy can improve traffic congestion in specific scenarios. Most reversible lanes in urban roads are fixed in time and number; however, traffic patterns in cities are highly variable and unpredictable due to this phenomenon’s complex nature. Therefore, reversible lanes may not improve traffic flow under certain circumstances; moreover, they could worsen it because of traffic fluctuations. In this paper, we use cellular automata to model adaptive reversible lanes(aka dynamic reversible lanes). Adaptive reversible lanes can change their direction using real-time information to respond to traffic demand fluctuations. Using real traffic data, our model shows that adaptive reversible lanes can improve traffic flow up to 40% compared to conventional reversible lanes. Our results show that there are significant fluctuations in traffic flow even during rush hours, and thus cities would benefit from implementing adaptive reversible lanes.

A Markovian random walk model of epidemic spreading

We analyze the dynamics of a population of independent random walkers on a graph and develop a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that each walker visits independently the nodes of a finite ergodic graph in a discrete-time Markovian walk governed by his specific transition matrix. With this assumption, we first derive an upper bound for the reproduction numbers. Then, we assume that a walker is in one of the states: susceptible, infectious, or recovered. An infectious walker remains infectious during a certain characteristic time. If an infectious walker meets a susceptible one on the same node, there is a certain probability for the susceptible walker to get infected. By implementing this hypothesis in computer simulations, we study the space-time evolution of the emerging infection patterns. Generally, random walk approaches seem to have a large potential to study epidemic spreading and to identify the pertinent parameters in epidemic dynamics.

An approach to integrate population mobility patterns and sociocultural factors in communicable disease preparedness and response

Complex human movement patterns driven by a range of economic, health, social, and environmental factors influence communicable disease spread. Further, cross-border movement impacts disparate public health systems of neighboring countries, making an effective response to disease importation or exportation more challenging. Despite the array of quantitative techniques and social science approaches available to analyze movement patterns, there continues to be a dearth of methods within the applied public health setting to gather and use information about community-level mobility dynamics. Population Connectivity Across Borders (PopCAB) is a rapidly-deployable toolkit to characterize multisectoral movement patterns through community engagement using focus group discussions or key informant interviews, each with participatory mapping, and apply the results to tailor preparedness and response strategies. The Togo and Benin Ministries of Health (MOH), in collaboration with the Abidjan Lagos Corridor Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, adapted and applied PopCAB to inform cross-border preparedness and response strategies for multinational Lassa fever outbreaks. Initially, the team implemented binational, national-level PopCAB activities in March 2017, highlighting details about a circular migration pathway across northern Togo, Benin, and Nigeria. After applying those results to respond to a cross-border Lassa fever outbreak in February 2018, the team designed an expanded PopCAB initiative in April 2018. In eight days, they trained 54 MOH staff who implemented 21 PopCAB focus group discussions in 14 cities with 224 community-level participants representing six stakeholder groups. Using the newly-identified 167 points of interest and 176 routes associated with a circular migration pathway across Togo, Benin, and Nigeria, the Togo and Benin MOH refined their cross-border information sharing and collaboration processes for Lassa fever and other communicable diseases, selected health facilities with increased community connectivity for enhanced training, and identified techniques to better integrate traditional healers in surveillance and community education strategies. They also integrated the final toolkit in national- and district-level public health preparedness plans. Integrating PopCAB in public health practice to better understand and accommodate population movement patterns can help countries mitigate the international spread of disease in support of improved global health security and International Health Regulations requirements.

Nonlocal biased random walks and fractional transport on directed networks

In this paper, we study nonlocal random walk strategies generated with the fractional Laplacian matrix of directed networks. We present a general approach to analyzing these strategies by defining the dynamics as a discrete-time Markovian process with transition probabilities between nodes expressed in terms of powers of the Laplacian matrix. We analyze the elements of the transition matrices and their respective eigenvalues and eigenvectors, the mean first passage times and global times to characterize the random walk strategies. We apply this approach to the study of particular local and nonlocal ergodic random walks on different directed networks; we explore circulant networks, the biased transport on rings and the dynamics on random networks. We study the efficiency of a fractional random walker with bias on these structures. Effects of ergodicity loss which occur when a directed network is not any more strongly connected are also discussed.

Random walks on networks with stochastic resetting

We study random walks with stochastic resetting to the initial position on arbitrary networks. We obtain the stationary probability distribution as well as the mean and global first passage times, which allow us to characterize the effect of resetting on the capacity of a random walker to reach a particular target or to explore a finite network. We apply the results to rings, Cayley trees, and random and complex networks. Our formalism holds for undirected networks and can be implemented from the spectral properties of the random walk without resetting, providing a tool to analyze the search efficiency in different structures with the small-world property or communities. In this way, we extend the study of resetting processes to the domain of networks.

Networks and long-range mobility in cities: A study of more than one billion taxi trips in New York City

We analyze the massive data set of more than one billion taxi trips in New York City, from January 2009 to December 2015. With these records of seven years, we generate an origin-destination matrix that has information of a vast number of trips. The mobility and flow of taxis can be described as a directed weighted network that connects different zones of high demand for taxis. This network has in and out degrees that follow a stretched exponential and a power law with an exponential cutoff distributions, respectively. Using the origin-destination matrix, we obtain a rank, called "OD rank”, analogous to the page rank of Google, that gives the more relevant places in New York City in terms of taxi trips. We introduced a model that captures the local and global dynamics that agrees with the data. Considering the taxi trips as a proxy of human mobility in cities, it might be possible that the long-range mobility found for New York City would be a general feature in other large cities around the world.

Human mobility in bike-sharing systems: Structure of local and non-local dynamics

The understanding of human mobility patterns in different transportation modes is an interdisciplinary research field with a direct impact in aspects as varied as urban planning, traffic optimization, sustainability, the reduction of operating costs as well as the mitigation of pollution in urban areas. In this paper, we study the global activity of users in bike-sharing systems operating in the cities of Chicago and New York. For this transportation mode, we explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of the mobility of cyclists. In particular, through the analysis of origin-destination matrices, we characterize the spatial structure of the displacements of users. We apply a mobility model for the global activity of the system that classifies the displacements between stations in local and non-local transitions. In local transitions, cyclists move in a region around each station whereas, in the non-local case, bike users travel with long-range displacements in a similar way to Lévy flights. We reproduce the spatial dynamics by using Monte Carlo simulations. The obtained results are similar to the observed in real data and reveal that the model implemented captures important characteristics of the global spatial dynamics in the systems analyzed.