HCV kinetic and modeling analyses project shorter durations to cure under combined therapy with daclatasvir and asunaprevir in chronic HCV-infected patients

Modeling-Based Response-Guided Hepatitis C Treatment During Pregnancy and Postpartum

Treating hepatitis C virus (HCV) in pregnancy would address HCV during prenatal care and potentially reduce the risk of vertical transmission. Response-guided therapy could provide a means to individualize and the reduce duration of HCV treatment during pregnancy. Data from a 27-year-old woman indicated that, pretreatment, HCV was stable and that it dropped in a biphasic manner during sofosbuvir/velpatasvir therapy, reaching target not detected at time of delivery-16 days post-initiation of therapy. Mathematical modeling of measured HCV at days 0, 7, and 14 predicted that cure could have been achieved after 7 weeks of sofosbuvir/velpatasvir, reducing the duration of therapy by 5 weeks.

Modeling-Based Response-Guided DAA Therapy for Chronic Hepatitis C to Identify Individuals for Shortening Treatment Duration

Shortening duration of direct-acting antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C could provide cost savings, reduce medication exposure, and foster adherence and treatment completion in special populations. The current analysis indicates that measuring hepatitis C virus at baseline and on days 7 and 14 of therapy can identify patients for shortening therapy duration.

Machine learning for mathematical models of HCV kinetics during antiviral therapy

Mathematical models for hepatitis C virus (HCV) dynamics have provided a means for evaluating the antiviral effectiveness of therapy and estimating treatment outcomes such as the time to cure. Recently, a mathematical modeling approach was used in the first proof-of-concept clinical trial assessing in real-time the utility of response-guided therapy with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) in chronic HCV-infected patients. Several retrospective studies have shown that mathematical modeling of viral kinetics predicts time to cure of less than 12 weeks in the majority of individuals treated with sofosbuvir-based as well as other DAA regimens. A database of these studies was built, and machine learning methods were evaluated for their ability to estimate the time to cure for each patient to facilitate real-time modeling studies. Data from these studies exploring mathematical modeling of HCV kinetics under DAAs in 266 chronic HCV-infected patients were gathered. Different learning methods were applied and trained on part of the dataset ('train' set), to predict time to cure on the untrained part ('test' set). Our results show that this machine learning approach provides a means for establishing an accurate time to cure prediction that will support the implementation of individualized treatment.

High rates of sustained virological response despite premature discontinuation of directly acting antivirals in HCV-infected patients treated in a real-life setting

In routine clinical practice, hepatitis C virus-infected patients can prematurely discontinue the prescribed regimen for several reasons. The aim of our study was to investigate sustained virological response (SVR12) rates in patients who prematurely discontinued directly acting antiviral (DAA) regimens and to assess the shortest effective duration of DAA able to lead to SVR12. We retrospectively collected the SVR rates of patients, registered in the NAVIGATORE-Lombardia Network database from January 2015, who discontinued DAAs before the predefined end of treatment. Overall, we included 365 patients, males were the majority (213, 58.4%), mean age was 60.5 years, and 53 (14.5%) patients were HIV-co-infected. Liver cirrhosis was observed in 251 (68.8%) subjects, and the most represented genotypes were 1b (n = 168, 46%) and 3 (n = 59, 16.2%). DAA was discontinued a median of 1 (IQR 1-4) weeks before the predefined EOT, with 164 (44.9%) patients stopping DAAs at least 2 weeks before the planned schedule. In patients with F0-F3 liver fibrosis, lower rates of SVR12 were observed in patients treated for <4 weeks: 50% (n = 2/4) vs. 99.1% (n = 109/110) for ≥4 weeks, p = 0.003. In patients with liver cirrhosis, lower rates of SVR12 were observed in patients treated <8 weeks: 83.3% (n = 25/30) vs. 94.6% (n = 209/221) for ≥8 weeks, p = 0.038. Despite premature discontinuation of DAA, high SVR12 rates were observed in a real-life setting for treatment lasting at least 4 weeks in patients with liver fibrosis F0-F3 and 8 weeks in those with liver cirrhosis. On this basis, feasibility of reducing DAA treatment duration should be explored in randomized clinical trials.

Some stability results for a model of Hepatitis C including alanine aminotransferase and immune system

In clinical practice, many cirrhosis scores based on alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels exist. Although the most recent direct acting antivirals (DAAs) reduce fibrosis and ALT levels, the Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is not always removed. In this paper, we study a mathematical model of the HCV virus, which takes into account the role of the immune system, to investigate the ALT behavior during therapy. We find five equilibrium points and analyze their stability. A sufficient condition for global asymptotical stability of the infection-free equilibrium is obtained and local asymptotical stability conditions are given for the immune-free infection and cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) response equilibria. The stability of the infection equilibrium with the full immune response is numerically performed.

Response guided therapy for reducing duration of direct acting antivirals in chronic hepatitis C infected patients: a Pilot study

The advent of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) has transformed the landscape of hepatitis C virus (HCV) management. We aimed to prospectively (real-time) evaluate the feasibility of using a response-guided therapy approach, based on mathematical modeling of early viral kinetics, to reduce the duration of DAAs therapy. Patients were treated with DAAs according to the physicians' preference. HCV was measured at baseline and at day 2 and weeks 1, 2 and 4 after treatment initiation. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients with sustained-virological response (SVR) at 12 and/or 24 weeks post-treatment. Twenty-nine patients (mean age 54 ± 16, 44% females, 73% with HCV genotype 1), were enrolled and all completed therapy. Treatment duration was shortened in 11 of the 29 patients (38%). SVR was achieved in 28 of the 29 patients (97%). Relapse occurred post treatment in a single case of a non-cirrhotic male with genotype 3, who was treated with sofosbuvir/velpatasvir for 6 weeks. Virus sequencing did not identify baseline or treatment emergent resistance associated substitutions. Real-time mathematical modeling of early HCV kinetics can be utilized for shortening DAAs duration in approximately 40% of patients without compromising treatment efficacy.Clinical trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03603327.

Efficient Methods for Parameter Estimation of Ordinary and Partial Differential Equation Models of Viral Hepatitis Kinetics

Parameter estimation in mathematical models that are based on differential equations is known to be of fundamental importance. For sophisticated models such as age-structured models that simulate biological agents, parameter estimation that addresses all cases of data points available presents a formidable challenge and efficiency considerations need to be employed in order for the method to become practical. In the case of age-structured models of viral hepatitis dynamics under antiviral treatment that deal with partial differential equations, a fully numerical parameter estimation method was developed that does not require an analytical approximation of the solution to the multiscale model equations, avoiding the necessity to derive the long-term approximation for each model. However, the method is considerably slow because of precision problems in estimating derivatives with respect to the parameters near their boundary values, making it almost impractical for general use. In order to overcome this limitation, two steps have been taken that significantly reduce the running time by orders of magnitude and thereby lead to a practical method. First, constrained optimization is used, letting the user add constraints relating to the boundary values of each parameter before the method is executed. Second, optimization is performed by derivative-free methods, eliminating the need to evaluate expensive numerical derivative approximations. The newly efficient methods that were developed as a result of the above approach are described for hepatitis C virus kinetic models during antiviral therapy. Illustrations are provided using a user-friendly simulator that incorporates the efficient methods for both the ordinary and partial differential equation models.

Modeling-Based Response-Guided Glecaprevir-Pibrentasvir Therapy for Chronic Hepatitis C to Identify Patients for Ultrashort Treatment Duration

We recently showed in a proof-of-concept study that real-time modeling-based response-guided therapy can shorten hepatitis C virus treatment duration with sofosbuvir-velpatasvir, elbasvir-grazoprevir, and sofosbuvir-ledipasvir without compromising efficacy, confirming our retrospective modeling reports in >200 patients. However, retrospective modeling of pibrentasvir-glecaprevir (P/G) treatment has yet to be evaluated. In the current study, modeling hepatitis C virus kinetics in 44 cirrhotic and noncirrhotic patients predicts that P/G treatment might have been reduced to 4, 6, and 7 weeks in 16%, 34%, and 14% of patients, respectively. These results support the further evaluation of a modeling-based response-guided therapy approach using P/G.

Modeling based response guided therapy in subjects with recent hepatitis C infection

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Mathematical modeling of viral kinetics has been shown to identify patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who could be cured with a shorter duration of direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. However, modeling therapy duration has yet to be evaluated in recently infected individuals. The aim of this study was to retrospectively examine whether modeling can predict outcomes of six-week sofosbuvir (SOF) and weight-based ribavirin (R) therapy in individuals with recent HCV infection.

METHODS

Modeling was used to estimate viral host parameters and to predict time to cure for 12 adults with recent HCV infection (<12 months of infection) who received six weeks of treatment with SOF + R.

RESULTS

Modeling results yielded a 100% negative predictive value for SOF + R treatment response in nine participants and suggested that a median of 13 [interquartile range: 8-16] weeks of therapy would be required for these patients to achieve cure. Modeling predicted cure after 5 weeks of therapy in the only modeled participant who achieved a sustained virological response. However, cure was also predicted for two participants who relapsed following treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The modeling results confirm that longer than 6 weeks of SOF + R is needed to reach cure in individuals with recent HCV infection. Prospective real-time modeling under current potent DAA regimens is needed to validate the potential of response-guided therapy in the management of recent HCV infection.

The Beginning of Ending Hepatitis C Virus: A Summary of the 26th International Symposium on Hepatitis C Virus and Related Viruses

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects ~71 million people worldwide, and 399,000 people die annually due to HCV-related liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. The use of direct-acting antivirals results in a sustained virologic response in >95% of patients with chronic HCV infection. However, several issues remain to be solved to eradicate HCV. At the 26th International Symposium on Hepatitis C Virus and Related Viruses (HCV2019) held in Seoul, South Korea, October 5–8, 2019, virologists, immunologists, and clinical scientists discussed these remaining issues and how we can achieve the elimination of HCV.

Ribavirin facilitates early viral kinetics in chronic hepatitis C patients receiving daclatasvir/asunaprevir

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Ribavirin (RBV) remains crucial in difficult-to-cure chronic hepatitis C patients receiving directly acting antivirals (DAAs). The current study aimed to address whether RBV enhanced early viral kinetics in patients with DAAs.

METHODS

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype-1b patients were allocated to daclatasvir/asunaprevir +weight-based RBV (1000-1200 mg/day) for 12-24 weeks. HCV RNA levels were compared at day 1, week 1, week 2, and week 4 of treatment.

RESULTS

The sustained virological response rate was 100% (67/67) and 96.7% (59/61) in the RBV and non-RBV group, respectively. The HCV RNA levels at treatment week 2 (W2) were significantly lower in the RBV group than in the non-RBV group (0.42 ± 0.81 log IU/mL vs 0.79 ± 1.03 log IU/mL, P = 0.04). Among the intermediate responders who remained to have detectable RNA after W1 of treatment, patients with RBV had a significantly higher rate of undetectable HCV RNA (71.4% vs 36.0%, P = 0.003) and lower HCV RNA level at W2 (0.55 ± 0.89 log IU/mL vs 1.32 ± 1.04 log IU/mL, P = 0.001). A more significant magnitude of HCV RNA reduction was also noted from baseline to day 1 (3.15 ± 0.38 log IU/mL vs 2.80 ± 0.70 log IU/mL, P = 0.009) and W1 to W2 (1.40 ± 0.65 log IU/mL vs 0.88 ± 0.78 log IU/mL, P = 0.007) in the RBV group compared to the non-RBV group among the intermediate responders. Logistic regression analysis revealed that adding RBV independently predicted undetectable HCV RNA at W2 (odds ratio/confidence interval: 4.74/1.54-14.57, P = 0.007) in the intermediate responders.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding RBV to DAAs improved early viral kinetic, in particular, for intermediate responders.

Within-host mathematical models of hepatitis B virus infection: Past, present, and future

Mathematical modeling has been instrumental in enhancing our understanding of the viral dynamics of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. We give a primer on HBV infection in humans and a brief overview of the development of within-host mathematical models of HBV infection. In the last decade, models have advanced from considering chronic HBV infections under therapy to the pathogenesis of infection. We also summarize estimates of key viral dynamic parameters that have varied greatly among studies, and show that they impact model predictions. Future directions for mathematical modeling of HBV infection are proposed to better understand emerging therapies, the HBV life cycle, predicting cure, and the mechanisms involved in the immune response to HBV infection.

A Parameter Estimation Method for Multiscale Models of Hepatitis C Virus Dynamics

Mathematical models that are based on differential equations require detailed knowledge about the parameters that are included in the equations. Some of the parameters can be measured experimentally while others need to be estimated. When the models become more sophisticated, such as in the case of multiscale models of hepatitis C virus dynamics that deal with partial differential equations (PDEs), several strategies can be tried. It is possible to use parameter estimation on an analytical approximation of the solution to the multiscale model equations, namely the long-term approximation, but this limits the scope of the parameter estimation method used and a long-term approximation needs to be derived for each model. It is possible to transform the PDE multiscale model to a system of ODEs, but this has an effect on the model parameters themselves and the transformation can become problematic for some models. Finally, it is possible to use numerical solutions for the multiscale model and then use canned methods for the parameter estimation, but the latter is making the user dependent on a black box without having full control over the method. The strategy developed here is to start by working directly on the multiscale model equations for preparing them toward the parameter estimation method that is fully coded and controlled by the user. It can also be adapted to multiscale models of other viruses. The new method is described, and illustrations are provided using a user-friendly simulator that incorporates the method.

Plasma Hepatitis E Virus Kinetics in Solid Organ Transplant Patients Receiving Ribavirin

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection causes chronic hepatitis in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. Antiviral therapy consists of three months of ribavirin, although response rates are not optimal. We characterized plasma HEV kinetic patterns in 41 SOT patients during ribavirin therapy. After a median pharmacological delay of three (range: 0-21) days, plasma HEV declined from a median baseline level of 6.12 (3.53-7.45) log copies/mL in four viral kinetic patterns: (i) monophasic (n = 18), (ii) biphasic (n = 13), (iii) triphasic (n = 8), and (iv) flat-partial response (n = 2). The mean plasma HEV half-life was estimated to be 2.0 ± 0.96 days. Twenty-five patients (61%) had a sustained virological response (SVR) 24 weeks after completion of therapy. Viral kinetic patterns (i)-(iii) were not associated with baseline characteristics or outcome of therapy. A flat-partial response was associated with treatment failure. All patients with a log concentration decrease of plasma HEV at day seven of >15% from baseline achieved SVR. In conclusion, viral kinetic modeling of plasma HEV under ribavirin therapy showed, for the first time, four distinct kinetic profiles, a median pharmacologic delay of three days, and an estimated HEV half-life of two days. Viral kinetic patterns were not associated with response to therapy, with the exception of a flat-partial response.

Early HCV viral kinetics under DAAs may optimize duration of therapy in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Detailed hepatitis C virus (HCV) kinetics modelling is scarce in patients with advanced liver disease receiving direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Due to budget restrictions, patients and health systems would benefit from the shortest possible treatment course. We investigated whether modelling very early HCV kinetics in cirrhotic patients under DAAs therapy could be used to individualize care and reduce treatment duration to achieve cure.

METHODS

We included 74 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis who received interferon-free treatments for 12-24 weeks. HCV genotype, liver disease stage and treatment regimen were recorded. Viral load was determined prospectively at very frequent intervals until target not detected (TND, <15 IU/mL). A viral kinetic model was used to predict time to cure based on HCV clearance in extracellular body fluid (CL-EF).

RESULTS

Sixty-eight patients (92%) achieved cure. Thirteen (18%) had MELD ≥15, 35 (47%) were Child-Pugh (CTP) ≥7. Median time to reach TND was 2 weeks (IQR: 1-4 weeks). Modelling indicated an average DAAs efficacy in blocking viral production of ε = 99.1%. HCV half-life (t1/2 ) was significantly shorter in patients with CTP <7, LSM <21 kPa or MELD <15 (1.5 vs 2.5 hours; P = 0.0057). The overall median CL-EF was 5.6 weeks (4.1-7.8). A CTP >7 and a LSM ≥21 kPa were significantly (P = 0.016) associated with longer CL-EF.

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides insights into HCV dynamics during DAAs therapy in patients with compensated and decompensated cirrhosis. Viral kinetics modelling suggests that treatment duration may be optimized in patients with compensated cirrhosis.

A randomized, proof-of-concept clinical trial on repurposing chlorcyclizine for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Chlorcyclizine HCl (CCZ) is a piperazine-class antihistamine with anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) activity in vitro and in vivo. In a first-in-humans study for HCV, we evaluated the antiviral effects and safety of CCZ±ribavirin (RBV), characterized pharmacokinetic (PK) and viral kinetic (VK) patterns, and provide insights into CCZs mode of action against HCV.

METHODS

Chronic HCV patients were randomized to CCZ (75 mg twice daily) or CCZ+weight-based RBV (1000/1200 mg daily) for 28 days. Therapy started with a loading dose of CCZ 150 mg ± RBV. Serial assessments of safety, liver tests, PK and VK markers were obtained.

RESULTS

24 HCV patients were treated; 54% male, median age 56 years, median HCV RNA 6.30 log IU/ml, without baseline differences between groups. At the end of therapy, subjects treated with CCZ monotherapy did not show any significant or sustained reduction in viremia (p = 0.69), whereas 7/12 (58%) subjects treated with CCZ+RBV had a >3-fold decline in HCV RNA. Subjects who responded demonstrated monophasic (n = 2), biphasic (n = 2) and triphasic (n = 3) VK responses. Contrary to historical RBV monotherapy response, CCZ+RBV demonstrated a continued viral decline suggesting a possible synergistic effect of CCZ+RBV. Mathematical modeling predicts a median effectiveness of CCZ+RBV in blocking viral production (ε) of 59% (Interquartile range, IQR: 50%) and blocking infection (η) of 78% (IQR: 23%). Adverse events (AEs) were mild-moderate without treatment discontinuations for AEs.

CONCLUSIONS

In this human pilot study, CCZ demonstrated some anti-HCV effects, mostly in combination with RBV. More potent CCZ derivatives with optimal PK features may be more suitable for future therapeutic development. ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT02118012.

Exposure-Response (Efficacy) Analysis of Daclatasvir and Asunaprevir in Japanese Patients With Hepatitis C Virus Infection

The treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has been revolutionized by the development of all-oral combination regimens of direct-acting antiviral agents. The current analysis characterized the relationship between exposures of daclatasvir (DCV; tablets) and asunaprevir (ASV; capsules) and sustained virologic response (SVR) in Japanese patients who are HCV genotype (GT) 1b nonresponders to pegylated interferon (IFN) α/ribavirin or IFNβ/ribavirin, and IFN-based therapy-ineligible naive/intolerant patients receiving DCV and ASV, and provided insight into patient covariates that were most closely associated with efficacy. The relationship between the probability of achieving SVR at 12 weeks after treatment (SVR12) and average steady-state plasma concentrations estimated from population pharmacokinetic models for DCV and ASV is described using a logistic regression model with data from a phase 2 and a phase 3 study in Japanese patients infected with HCV GT 1b (N=265). The functional form characterization, which describes a relationship between DCV and ASV average steady-state plasma concentrations and SVR12, as well as covariate identification (demographic, laboratory, and prognostic and treatment covariates) were investigated during model development. The presence of the signature nonstructural protein 5A Y93H mutation at baseline was the only significant parameter of SVR12 in the final exposure-response model. Model evaluation plots demonstrate that the final model was able to predict the observed SVR rates. Exposure-response analysis supports the clinical utility of the combination regimen of 60-mg once-daily DCV and 100-mg twice-daily ASV in Japanese patients infected with HCV GT 1b.