Risk factors for measles mortality and the importance of decentralized case management during an unusually large measles epidemic in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in 2013

Population-Level Risk Factors Related to Measles Case Fatality: A Conceptual Framework Based on Expert Consultation and Literature Review

A better understanding of population-level factors related to measles case fatality is needed to estimate measles mortality burden and impact of interventions such as vaccination. This study aimed to develop a conceptual framework of mechanisms associated with measles case fatality ratios (CFRs) and assess the scope of evidence available for related indicators. Using expert consultation, we developed a conceptual framework of mechanisms associated with measles CFR and identified population-level indicators potentially associated with each mechanism. We conducted a literature review by searching PubMed on 31 October 2021 to determine the scope of evidence for the expert-identified indicators. Studies were included if they contained evidence of an association between an indicator and CFR and were excluded if they were from non-human studies or reported non-original data. Included studies were assessed for study quality. Expert consultation identified five mechanisms in a conceptual framework of factors related to measles CFR. We identified 3772 studies for review and found 49 studies showing at least one significant association with CFR for 15 indicators (average household size, educational attainment, first- and second-dose coverage of measles-containing vaccine, human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, level of health care available, stunting prevalence, surrounding conflict, travel time to major city or settlement, travel time to nearest health care facility, under-five mortality rate, underweight prevalence, vitamin A deficiency prevalence, vitamin A treatment, and general malnutrition) and only non-significant associations for five indicators (antibiotic use for measles-related pneumonia, malaria prevalence, percent living in urban settings, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination coverage, vitamin A supplementation). Our study used expert consultation and a literature review to provide additional insights and a summary of the available evidence of these underlying mechanisms and indicators that could inform future measles CFR estimations.

Epidemiological characteristics of a protracted and widespread measles outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, 2018 - 2020

Introduction

measles is a highly contagious viral disease. Since 2011, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DR Congo) has had the first dose measles vaccination coverage of less than 80% according to the World Health Organization - United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (WHO-UNICEF) coverage estimates, and measles mass vaccination coverage of less than the required coverage level of 95% by survey. Starting in August 2018, the country experienced an increase in measles case reports which continued through to early 2020. Epidemiological aspects of the outbreak are described in this article.

Methods

we analysed aggregate weekly passive surveillance data from the DR Congo for the years 2018 - 2020 to understand the trends of occurrence of suspected measles cases. We also analysed the measles case-based surveillance database to understand the epidemiological characteristics of confirmed cases of measles and rubella during the same period of time.

Results

a total of 458,156 suspected measles cases and 8,127 deaths were reported between 1^st January 2018 and 31^st December 2020, with the majority of cases and deaths reported in 2019. Only 2.9% of these cases were reported through the case-based surveillance system, with 31,639 cases being confirmed as measles by the laboratory, by epidemiological linkage and on clinical compatibility. Children less than 5 years of age were most affected with a cumulative incidence of 960 cases per 1,000,000 inhabitants. Only 41% of the confirmed cases were vaccinated. Maindombe and Tshopo provinces had the highest cumulative incidence levels. There was a distinct geographic progression of the outbreak between provinces during the course of the three years. A total of 1760 lab confirmed rubella cases were confirmed in various provinces among the cases investigated with blood specimens, 93% of whom were less than 15 years of age.

Conclusion

the recent gaps in vaccination coverage, the age pattern of confirmed cases and the lack of vaccination history in the majority of cases is suggestive of failure to vaccinate as the likely cause of this large and protracted outbreak. Efforts to improve vaccination coverage and the measles surveillance system are needed in order to prevent the occurrence of future outbreaks and to avert measles-related deaths.

Measles Outbreak Investigation in Guradamole District of Bale Zone, South Eastern Ethiopia, 2021

Background

Method

Results

Conclusion

Is patient navigation a solution to the problem of "leaving no one behind"? A scoping review of evidence from low-income countries

Patient navigation interventions, which are designed to enable patients excluded from health systems to overcome the barriers they face in accessing care, have multiplied in high-income countries since the 1990s. However, in low-income countries (LICs), indigents are generally excluded from health policies despite the international paradigm of universal health coverage (UHC). Fee exemption interventions have demonstrated their limits and it is now necessary to act on other dimensions of access to healthcare. However, there is a lack of knowledge about the interventions implemented in LICs to support the indigents throughout their care pathway. The aim of this paper is to synthesize what is known about patient navigation interventions to facilitate access to modern health systems for vulnerable populations in LICs. We therefore conducted a scoping review to identify all patient navigation interventions in LICs. We found 60 articles employing a total of 48 interventions. Most of these interventions targeted traditional beneficiaries such as people living with HIV, pregnant women and children. We utilized the framework developed by Levesque et al. (Patient-centred access to health care: conceptualising access at the interface of health systems and populations. Int J Equity Health 2013;12:18) to analyse the interventions. All acted on the ability to perceive, 34 interventions on the ability to reach, 30 on the ability to engage, 8 on the ability to pay and 6 on the ability to seek. Evaluations of these interventions were encouraging, as they often appeared to lead to improved health indicators and service utilization rates and reduced attrition in care. However, no intervention specifically targeted indigents and very few evaluations differentiated the impact of the intervention on the poorest populations. It is therefore necessary to test navigation interventions to enable those who are worst off to overcome the barriers they face. It is a major ethical issue that health policies leave no one behind and that UHC does not benefit everyone except the poorest.

Outbreak analytics: a developing data science for informing the response to emerging pathogens

Despite continued efforts to improve health systems worldwide, emerging pathogen epidemics remain a major public health concern. Effective response to such outbreaks relies on timely intervention, ideally informed by all available sources of data. The collection, visualization and analysis of outbreak data are becoming increasingly complex, owing to the diversity in types of data, questions and available methods to address them. Recent advances have led to the rise of outbreak analytics, an emerging data science focused on the technological and methodological aspects of the outbreak data pipeline, from collection to analysis, modelling and reporting to inform outbreak response. In this article, we assess the current state of the field. After laying out the context of outbreak response, we critically review the most common analytics components, their inter-dependencies, data requirements and the type of information they can provide to inform operations in real time. We discuss some challenges and opportunities and conclude on the potential role of outbreak analytics for improving our understanding of, and response to outbreaks of emerging pathogens. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control'. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue 'Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes'.