Assessment of the National Park network of mainland Spain by the Insecurity Index of vertebrate species

Using fuzzy logic to compare species distribution models developed on the basis of expert knowledge and sampling records : Expert knowledge versus sampling in species distribution modelling

BACKGROUND

Experts use knowledge to infer the distribution of species based on fuzzy logical assumptions about the relationship between species and the environment. Thus, expert knowledge is amenable to fuzzy logic modelling, which give to propositions a continuous truth value between 0 and 1. In species distribution modelling, fuzzy logic may also be used to model, from a number of records, the degree to which conditions are favourable to the occurrence of a species. Therefore, fuzzy logic operations can be used to compare and combine models based on expert knowledge and species records. Here, we applied fuzzy logic modelling to the distribution of amphibians in Uruguay as inferred from expert knowledge and from observed records to infer favourable locations, with favourability being the commensurable unit for both kinds of data sources. We compared the results for threatened species, species considered by experts to be ubiquitous, and non-threatened, non-ubiquitous species. We calculated the fuzzy intersection of models based on both knowledge sources to obtain a unified prediction of favourable locations.

RESULTS

Models based on expert knowledge involved a larger number of variables and were less affected by sampling bias. Models based on experts had the same overprediction rate for the three types of species, whereas models based on species records had a lower prediction rate for ubiquitous species. Models based on expert knowledge performed equally as well or better than corresponding models based on species records for threatened species, even when they had to discriminate and classify the same set of records used to build the models based on species records. For threatened species, expert models predicted more restrictive favourable territories than those predicted based on records. Observed records generated the best-fitted models for non-threatened non-ubiquitous species, and ubiquitous species.

CONCLUSIONS

Fuzzy modelling permitted the objective comparison of the potential of expert knowledge and incomplete distribution records to infer the territories favourable for different species. Distribution of threatened species was able to be better explained by subjective expert knowledge, while for generalist species models based on observed data were more accurate. These results have implications for the correct use of expert knowledge in conservation planning.

Changes in suitable habitat for the critically endangered Northern white-cheeked gibbon (Nomascus leucogenys) in the Western Nghe An Biosphere Reserve, Vietnam: Implication for conservation

Several recent studies have highlighted that change in land use and land cover (LULC) is the main threat causing the decline and extinction of certain species. Gibbons (Hylobatidae) could be excellent examples, on account of their potential for extinction in the near future under the effects of LULC changes due to their particular ecological traits. This study aims to model the current suitable habitat of the Northern white-cheeked gibbon (Nomascus leucogenys (Ogilby, 1840)) in the Western Nghe An Biosphere Reserve (BR), Vietnam and assess the changes in its suitable habitat following the changes in LULC from 1990 to 2020. The maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt) was used to predict the suitable habitat of the gibbon using its occurrence localities and environmental predictors. The model analysis showed that the “Distance to Agriculture” variable had the strongest impact on the gibbons’ suitable habitat. Our results predicted the present suitable habitat of the gibbon species at approximately 4,022.42 km2 (30.95% of the overall BR area) in three spatially separated areas inside the Western Nghe An BR. Furthermore, the suitable habitat areas of the gibbon in 1990, 2000, and 2010 were projected at roughly 4,347.68 km2, 4,324.97 km2, and 2,750.21 km2, respectively, following a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2010, but a gradual increase between 2010 and 2020. The suitable habitat of the gibbon inside three core protected areas (Pu Mat National Park, Pu Huong, and Pu Hoat Nature Reserves) showed a continually increasing trend from 1990 to 2020. Our results highlighted the influence of LULC changes and the role of the protected area network in gibbon conservation. The information from the study provides a quantitative baseline for the future conservation of the critically endangered gibbon in the Western Nghe An BR.

Iberian Protected Areas Capture Regional Functional, Phylogenetic and Taxonomic Diversity of Most Tetrapod Groups

Protected areas (PAs) have been created with the purpose of preserving biodiversity, acting as refuges from anthropogenic pressures. Traditionally, PAs have been designed and managed to represent mainly taxonomic diversity, ignoring other diversity facets such as its functional and phylogenetic components. Yet, functional and phylogenetic diversity are, respectively, connected with species’ roles on ecosystems and evolutionary history held within communities. Here, we focused on the amphibian, reptile, resident breeding bird, and non-flying mammal faunas of the national and natural parks of the Iberian Peninsula, to evaluate whether these PAs are adequately representing regional functional, phylogenetic, and taxonomic diversity of each group. Specifically, we computed functional and phylogenetic diversity within each PA, and then compared those values to the ones obtained from a random assembly of species from the regional pool, that was defined as the region encompassing the PA and a neighboring area of 50 km beyond its boundary. We also calculated the proportion of species in each regional pool that were present within the PAs. In general, the functional and phylogenetic diversity of amphibians, reptiles and non-flying mammals found within PAs did not differ significantly from random expectations generated from the species pertaining to the regional pool, although a few PAs showed a higher diversity. In contrast, resident breeding birds presented lower functional and phylogenetic diversity than expected by chance in many of the PAs, which could relate to climatic variables and the habitat specificity of some species. The proportion of species from the regional pools that are present in the PAs was high for amphibians, reptiles and mammals, and slightly lower for birds. These results suggest that the Iberian natural and national parks are effectively capturing the functional, phylogenetic and taxonomic diversity of most tetrapod assemblages present at the regional level. Future studies should identify priority areas to expand the representation of these biodiversity components, and assess potential effects of climate and land-use changes on current patterns.

Changes in potential mammal diversity in national parks and their implications for conservation

Observed species richness (OSR) is a widely used and well-studied biodiversity metric. However, non-observed species in favorable ecosystems are also relevant. Two metrics that include observed and potential species were recently defined: potential biodiversity (hereafter potential species richness—PSR) and geometric mean of favorabilities (GMF). We used these metrics to evaluate the national park network of mainland Spain at two time periods (2002 and 2015), using terrestrial mammals on a UTM 100-km² grid. PSR and GMF are based on the favorability function, a species distribution model that assesses how favorable an area is for the presence of a species, over and above its prevalence in the study area. For each park and for the whole network, we calculated the mean and sum of OSR, PSR, and GMF in each time period, as well as changes between periods. OSR and PSR were higher inside than outside the park network in both time periods. Thus, although the network covers a very small proportion of the country, it performs well for the representation of mammal species and their favorable areas. However, mean PSR was lower in 2015 than in 2002 inside the national park network, whereas the opposite was the case outside the network. Mountainous Parks generally not only concentrated highly favorable areas for mammals, but they also showed less favorable areas in 2015 compared to 2002, although the reduction was moderate to low. This is a result to consider for future analyses because if the tendency increases, it may have consequences for the conservation of mammals and for the adequacy of the national park network.