The Baltic Sea Atlantis: An integrated end-to-end modelling framework evaluating ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures

Changes in sea floor productivity are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change in temperate coastal ecosystems according to a new size-based model

The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems.

Simulating oil-driven abundance changes in benthic marine invertebrates using an ecosystem model

Field studies showed that benthic macrofauna and meiofauna abundances increased with sediment oil concentration in areas affected by the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. Benthic invertebrate biomass shows a dome-shaped relationship with respect to petrogenic hydrocarbon concentrations suggesting a positive effect on biomass at low-to-medium oil concentrations and a negative effect at high concentrations. If this is due to enrichment of the benthic food web, then this adds to an emerging picture of a food web response over a large spatial area with both abundance increases and decreases as a result of DWH. We would be obliged to consider long term multispecies effects beyond the initial pulse disturbance in modeling impacts and recovery of economically valuable species. An Atlantis ecosystem model of the Gulf of Mexico is used to simulate three mechanisms that could explain observed changes in the invertebrate community. Scenario 1 is that stimulation of surface primary productivity occurred as a result of nutrient loading caused by diversion of Mississippi River water into Barataria Bay (a mitigation action taken during the DWH oil spill). Scenario 2 is that enrichment of the benthos occurred due to detrital loading from marine oil snow sedimentation and flocculent accumulation (MOSSFA). Scenario 3 is that predator declines and/or avoidance of oiled areas caused a release of predation mortality on benthic invertebrates. Scenario 2 (MOSSFA) stimulated the detritus-driven food web and was best able to cause a net increase in invertebrate biomass despite a realistic amount of oil toxicity. Scenario 3 (predator release) plausibly could have contributed to changes in benthic invertebrates. Scenario 1 (nutrient loading) had little impact on the benthos suggesting the benthic food web is decoupled from local pelagic production sources.

Responses of coastal fishery resources to rapid environmental changes

Coastal systems experience strong impacts of ongoing environmental change, affecting fish communities and subsequently fishery yields. In the Baltic Sea, the combined effects of climate-induced changes and eutrophication-related pressures constitute major threats to its living resources. Although much work has been devoted to uncovering environmental impacts on the commercially most valuable fish stocks, only little is known about community-wide responses of fished species and how environmental change may affect their yield. In this study, the authors use a joint species distribution modelling framework to disentangle environmental impacts on species-specific fishery yields of 16 fished species along the coast of Finland over four decades. The authors show that environmental covariates substantially contributed to variations in fishery yields and are likely to have strong impacts on fished resources also in the future. Salinity and near-bottom oxygen concentration emerged as the strongest environmental drivers of yields at the community level, whereas temperature was particularly important for cod (Gadus morhua) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) yields. The authors found shore density to be an important predictor for fisheries resources especially for freshwater fish. The results of this study suggest that the changes in environmental conditions during the past four decades had a positive effect on the yields of freshwater and warm-affinity species, whereas yields of marine cold-affinity species have been mainly negatively affected by contracting favourable habitats, becoming warmer and less saline.

Food web assessments in the Baltic Sea: Models bridging the gap between indicators and policy needs

Ecosystem-based management requires understanding of food webs. Consequently, assessment of food web status is mandatory according to the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for EU Member States. However, how to best monitor and assess food webs in practise has proven a challenging question. Here, we review and assess the current status of food web indicators and food web models, and discuss whether the models can help addressing current shortcomings of indicator-based food web assessments, using the Baltic Sea as an example region. We show that although the MSFD food web assessment was designed to use food web indicators alone, they are currently poorly fit for the purpose, because they lack interconnectivity of trophic guilds. We then argue that the multiple food web models published for this region have a high potential to provide additional coherence to the definition of good environmental status, the evaluation of uncertainties, and estimates for unsampled indicator values, but we also identify current limitations that stand in the way of more formal implementation of this approach. We close with a discussion of which current models have the best capacity for this purpose in the Baltic Sea, and of the way forward towards the combination of measurable indicators and modelling approaches in food web assessments.

Expected contraction in the distribution ranges of demersal fish of high economic value in the Mediterranean and European Seas

Fisheries and aquaculture are facing many challenges worldwide, especially adaptation to climate change. Investigating future distributional changes of largely harvested species has become an extensive research topic, aiming at providing realistic ecological scenarios on which to build management measures, to help fisheries and aquaculture adapt to future climate-driven changes. Here, we use an ensemble modelling approach to estimate the contemporary and future distributional range of eight demersal fish species of high economic value in the Mediterranean Sea. We identify a cardinal influence of (i) temperature on fish species distributions, all being shaped by yearly mean and seasonality in sea bottom temperature, and (ii) the primary production. By assessing the effects of changes in future climate conditions under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios over three periods of the twenty-first century, we project a contraction of the distributional range of the eight species in the Mediterranean Sea, with a general biogeographical displacement towards the North European coasts. This will help anticipating changes in future catch potential in a warmer world, which is expected to have substantial economic consequences for Mediterranean fisheries.

The Effects of Wastewater Treatment Plant Failure on the Gulf of Gdansk (Southern Baltic Sea)

In August 2019 and during August/September 2020, the main collection system of the Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) in Warsaw, Poland, malfunctioned. During that system failure, over 4.8 million m³ of untreated wastewater was dropped directly into the Vistula River in just a few days. It is currently considered as one of the largest known failures of WWTP worldwide. In order to assess the environmental impact, water samples were collected from 2 spots at the Vistula river estuary (406 and 415 km from the discharge location, respectively), and 4 spots at the Gulf of Gdansk, situated on the southern shore of the Baltic Sea. The sampling was conducted before the wastewater wave reached the Vistula river’s mouth, followed by daily sampling during 21 days after the malfunction occurred. The study showed the decline in water quality at the Vistula river estuary and the Baltic shore waters as the wave of wastewater reached those points, despite being situated over 400 km downstream from the place of the accident. Those changes included the reduction in the dissolved oxygen content (by 0.69-fold at its peak), the increase in Total Organic Carbon (TOC) (by 1.28-fold at its peak), nitrate-nitrogen (N-NO₃) (by 1.68-fold at its peak), phosphorous (P) (by 2.41-fold at its peak), conductivity (by 16.8-fold at its peak), and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) (by 1.84-fold). In the samples from the Vistula river, the decline in water quality was seen as incidental and lasted 2–3 days. Subsequently, the levels of physical and chemical parameters returned to the levels from before the accident. However, the changes in the Gulf of Gdańsk lasted significantly longer, especially on the West side of the Vistula river, where, even after 21 days from the initial accident, some parameters remained altered.

A versatile marine modelling tool applied to arctic, temperate and tropical waters

The improved understanding of complex interactions of marine ecosystem components makes the use of fully coupled hydrodynamic, biogeochemical and individual based models more and more relevant. At the same time, the increasing complexity of the models and diverse user backgrounds calls for improved user friendliness and flexibility of the model systems. We present FlexSem, a versatile and user-friendly framework for 3D hydrodynamic, biogeochemical, individual based and sediment transport modelling. The purpose of the framework is to enable natural scientists to conduct advanced 3D simulations in the marine environment, including any relevant processes. This is made possible by providing a precompiled portable framework, which still enables the user to pick any combination of models and provide user defined equation systems to be solved during the simulation. We here present the ideas behind the framework design, the implementation and documentation of the numerical solution to the Navier-Stokes equations in the hydrodynamic module, the surface heat budget model, the pelagic and benthic equation solvers and the Lagrangian movement of the agents in the agent based model. Five examples of different applications of the system are shown: 1) Hydrodynamics in the Disko Bay in west Greenland, 2) A biogeochemical pelagic and benthic model in the inner Danish waters, 3) A generic mussel farm model featuring offline physics, food levels and mussel eco-physiology, 4) Sediment transport in Clarion-Clipperton zone at the bottom of the Pacific and 5) Hydrodynamics coupled with an agent based model around Zanzibar in Tanzania. Hence we demonstrate that the model can be set up for any area with enough forcing data and used to solve a wide range of applications.

Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea

We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical-biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.

Methodological elements for optimising the spatial monitoring design to support regional benthic ecosystem assessments

Benthic habitat condition assessments are a requirement under various environmental directives. The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), for example, challenges member states in a European sea region to perform comparable assessments of good environmental status and improve coherence of their monitoring programmes by 2020. Currently, North Sea countries operate independent monitoring programmes using nationally defined assessment areas. Lack of an agreed OSPAR or EU scale monitoring method and programme has been identified as a priority science need. This paper proposes a method for the development of a coherent and efficient spatial sampling design for benthic habitats on regional level and gives advice on optimal monitoring effort to get more accurate assessments. We use ecologically relevant assessment areas (strata) across national borders and test spatial sample allocation methods. Furthermore, we investigate the number of samples needed in each stratum to reduce the variance for estimating mean number of taxa and abundance. The stratification needs to take into account the spatial heterogeneity of the entire ecosystem. The total sample effort is optimal when sample allocation takes into account the size and benthic variability within those strata. Change point analysis helps to find a balance between sampling effort and precision of the benthic parameter estimate. A joint sampling design for the North Sea could be generated by combining current efforts, and where needed adapting existing national programmes. This serves a coordinated, region-wide, benthic condition status assessment and strengthens regional cooperation to fulfil multiple monitoring tasks, with a scientifically underpinned common approach.